Blue Jays Discussion: TOR Acquires Francisco Liriano, Scott Feldman, Mike Bolsinger

[Goonface2k14]

Can we stop thinking of Sanchez as some simple asset that you can do with what you please and start thinking of him more like a human being? This is his career we are talking about and people don't give a **** if he destroys his arm just because they want a World Series.

People act like the Jays want to do this. Who the hell would ever want to throw their staff ace into the bullpen? It's not some simple decision they made off the cuff. Please think for a second.

I get the human side, but two things still come to mind:

1) This is the season to go for it - they are at the top of the division, have a great lineup and its August.
2) There have been countless pitchers throughout history who increased their pitch count at some point early in their career without any issue. All this pitch count stuff wasn't even a thing 10-20 years ago.

I think this has as much to do with agents protecting their client (and therefore increasing their chance at a big pay day) as it does management protecting their futures. All at the expense of a fan base that sees an opportunity to win it all, regardless of the potential consequences.

 

[le_sean]

I get the human side, but two things still come to mind:

1) This is the season to go for it - they are at the top of the division, have a great lineup and its August.
2) There have been countless pitchers throughout history who increased their pitch count at some point early in their career without any issue. All this pitch count stuff wasn't even a thing 10-20 years ago.

I think this has as much to do with agents protecting their client (and therefore increasing their chance at a big pay day) as it does management protecting their futures. All at the expense of a fan base that sees an opportunity to win it all, regardless of the potential consequences.

CTE wasn't a thing 10-20 years ago either.

 

[HockeyGuruPitka]

I was listening to steve phillips on tsn 1050 talking about what he would do in this situation. He went back on his time as the farm director for the mets. Advising the mets not to push the young pitchers beyond a certain amount of innings. His opinion was vetoed and the players were forced to pitch excessive amounts of innings in the belief that this would develop them into long term players. This ended up ruining 2 out of 3 of their careers. He then went on to become the mets GM and implemented the innings limits for young pitchers.

Phillips also makes the point that risk isn’t new. He was the Mets’ minor-league farm director two decades ago when a plan to build around young pitching was ruined by injuries to Paul Wilson, Bill Pulsipher and Jason Isringhausen — the only one of the three to go on to a successful career, albeit as a reliever, not a starter.

“That wiped out an entire generation of our team,†Phillips says. “And to me, looking back, fatigue was a factor. I tried to analyze that when I became the GM (in 1997). So many of our young guys at the time were overpitched in the minor leagues that I’m embarrassed by it.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/young-pitcher-injuries-changing-franchises-building-teams-article-1.2725290

 

[Sokil]

No, I'm quite clearly saying that every team in baseball has a vested interest in the future productivity of their assets and there have been millions and millions of dollars invested into research that has been and likely always will be kept private because teams are trying to gain a competitive advantage over their competition rather than provide a knowledge base to the general public.

Why would I have access to that information? I'm not saying I do. Hell, I'm not even saying the Jays are right to make the decision they're making. What I am saying, however, is that I believe they have a ton of information and research to back up what they're doing and that it's not some arbitrary limit.

oh cut the conspiracy.

 

[Sokil]

Can we stop thinking of Sanchez as some simple asset that you can do with what you please and start thinking of him more like a human being? This is his career we are talking about and people don't give a **** if he destroys his arm just because they want a World Series.

People act like the Jays want to do this. Who the hell would ever want to throw their staff ace into the bullpen? It's not some simple decision they made off the cuff. Please think for a second.

what if he feelss fine and wants to continue pitching? aren't you also treating him like an asset with this logic?

Maybe Strasburg should have been taken out of the rotation before and put into the bullpen like Sanchez. Then the Nationals might not have given up 4 runs to the Cards in the 9th inning of Game 5 of the ALDS.

I mean Strasburg had TJS and only pitched like 44 innings in 2011.

Sanchez is still going to be used and be a valuable piece.

Also one example doesn't prove anything. I could say "Matt Harvey". But there are so many factors. I'd rather the baseball experts with doctors on the payroll to make informed decisions.

Or one could say "Chris Sale" who went form 71 innings as a 22 year old to 192 innings the year after to no ill effect.

or let's go further

Kershaw:
20 y/o - 107 innings
21 y/o - 171 innings (30 starts)

Scherzer:
23 y/o - 56 innings
24 y/o - 170 (30 starts)

Bumgarner
20 y/o - 111 innings
21 y/o - 204 innings

Tillman
24 - 86 innings
25 - 206 innings

It seems you can go through all the best pitchers the league and it's the same deal. Kyle Hendricks went from 80 innings to 180. Jose Fernandez pitched 4 innings as an 18 year old in the minors, 134 the next, and pulled 172 as a rookie 20 year old.

 

[Goonface2k14]

CTE wasn't a thing 10-20 years ago either.

So lets say the Jays decided to put Juan Guzman, an integral part of the 92' and 93' World Series teams, into the bullpen during the stretch run. There's a big chance they're throwing away two World Series titles, so that Juan freakin Guzman can feel better about his future, and that's ok with you?

Gimme a break. Any decisions geared towards the safety of any single player that comes at the cost of winning a championship is a foolish decision, regardless of risk.

You do everything you can to win the title, party like you've never partied before, and worry about the consequences later.

#freeaaronsanchez

 

[zeke]

No doubt every team has their own propietary analytics for injury risk management, and some are better than others. And teams have no interest in in giving away an important competitive edge which they've likely invested lots of money in. Though as FO personnel transfers from team to team eventually everyone gets to somewhere similar.

I'm a little discouraged, though, to hear from Atkins that this plan was set in stone from spring training all along - that to me doesn't sound lkke a very advanced analytical approach, but just a more hamfisted innings limit approach.

 

[Red Piller]

So much speculation on Sanchez and his arm and the risk of him taking on "x" number of innings.

What a joke.

You are in a pennant race. These situations don't happen every year. The team is poised to compete with teams like Texas, Cleveland, Boston and Baltimore. When you're in a season where you can win the whole damn thing, you don't remove your number one ace, Cy Young candidate pitcher from the rotation in August, when he is on an absolute tear, regardless of the innings increase.

I've heard people say yeah but what about long term for Sanchez? I say who gives a rat's behind. There is so much uncertainty about next year and beyond (Edwin likely wearing Boston red and white makes my stomach turn just a bit), that you have to go for it now.

In trying to think rationally about this from all angles, I am guessing Sanchez' agent and Atkins/Shapiro are behind all of this, because it helps protect their long term risk and job security. They would rather not take a chance, as low as it might be, that Sanchez blows out his elbow, so that they can fire him into the rotation again next season and beyond, rather than the potentially have a big party this season and crash and burn next season, and potentially get fired. Selfish management trumps the fan base and the potential for a championship season. What a joke.

It sounds like you are the selfish one not them. This is what baseball teams have done forever. Its not hard to understand. Sanchez is an asset they want to look after going forward. You even admit in your post that you don't care if his arm explodes after this year aslong as you have a chance to win this year. Teams don't operate like that with one of their best young pitchers. You have to see the big picture here. This isn't 1940 where guys will throw 200 pitches in a game, and then go out 2 days later and do it again. Pitching is not natural for the human body to do and it puts a lot of strain on your elbow. Letting Sanchez go the rest of the season is something the Mets would do, not the Jays. Its something that had to be done, so suck it up and be a man.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

So lets say the Jays decided to put Juan Guzman, an integral part of the 92' and 93' World Series teams, into the bullpen during the stretch run. There's a big chance they're throwing away two World Series titles, so that Juan freakin Guzman can feel better about his future, and that's ok with you?

Gimme a break. Any decisions geared towards the safety of any single player that comes at the cost of winning a championship is a foolish decision, regardless of risk.

You do everything you can to win the title, party like you've never partied before, and worry about the consequences later.

#freeaaronsanchez

Yeah because long term thinking is for idiots.

 

[Discoverer]

oh cut the conspiracy.

Um... seriously? What conspiracy? The Jays have an entire department dedicated to making these types of decisions.

You think it's a conspiracy theory that teams are spending a lot of money on this research and trying to keep it private?

 

[Goonface2k14]

It sounds like you are the selfish one not them. This is what baseball teams have done forever. Its not hard to understand. Sanchez is an asset they want to look after going forward. You even admit in your post that you don't care if his arm explodes after this year aslong as you have a chance to win this year. Teams don't operate like that with one of their best young pitchers. You have to see the big picture here. This isn't 1940 where guys will throw 200 pitches in a game, and then go out 2 days later and do it again. Pitching is not natural for the human body to do and it puts a lot of strain on your elbow. Letting Sanchez go the rest of the season is something the Mets would do, not the Jays. Its something that had to be done, so suck it up and be a man.

The big picture is too many people with vested interests on the health and future of Aaron Sanchez, who don't particularly care about the opportunity cost, which is winning a World Series. There's obviously risk, like there is with anything else in life. Given the current circumstances of where the Jays are in the standings and their current roster, as a management staff, you should be willing to take on that risk every single time this type of scenario presents itself. It's as though they're refusing to deal prospects for a star pitcher during a year when they're going for it, because of what the prospects mean to their future. There's a reason why so many teams risk their future players for current opportunities. This situation should be taken the exact same way. The only difference is that you're risking Sanchez's future for Sanchez's current success.

 

[Goonface2k14]

Yeah because long term thinking is for idiots.

Long term, the Jays offense takes a big hit with Edwin and JB (and potentially Saunders) likely leaving.

Right now is the time to go for it. Bird in hand. Any idiot could see that.

 

[Sokil]

Um... seriously? What conspiracy? The Jays have an entire department dedicated to making these types of decisions.

You think it's a conspiracy theory that teams are spending a lot of money on this research and trying to keep it private?

Yes, explaining the science behind inning limits as an industry secret is a conspiracy. Besides, research would be far more fine tuned than an arbitrary number.

 

[Red Piller]

of course Sanchez would say he is "fine" its what all athletes say because they want to be in there. You don't make decisions based on that, you do it for the good of the team going forward. Just because he isn't getting fatigued right now doesn't mean anything. Its why teams don't call up their 21 year old pitching prospects from the minors until june or July and put them on strict innings limits. Young guys are babied across the league because that's what the position demands. EVERY team does this now. Placing blame on the GM for making the right call is brutal.

 

[Starry Knight]

Long term, the Jays offense takes a big hit with Edwin and JB (and potentially Saunders) likely leaving.

Right now is the time to go for it. Bird in hand. Any idiot could see that.

Even with losing all three (if it comes to that), the Jays are still in as good of a position as they were in going in to last winter.

This is not the end of the window of opportunity.

 

[Sokil]

of course Sanchez would say he is "fine" its what all athletes say because they want to be in there. You don't make decisions based on that, you do it for the good of the team going forward. Just because he isn't getting fatigued right now doesn't mean anything.

So if the player performs healthy and says he's healthy - he's secretly lying and his performance means nothing.

Riiiight.

This cuts both ways. You could say the player is lying because they want to play. You could say the player would want to take himself out because he wants to protect his livelihood and be able to earn a contract. You can speculate all you want, or you can take things at face value.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Long term, the Jays offense takes a big hit with Edwin and JB (and potentially Saunders) likely leaving.

Right now is the time to go for it. Bird in hand. Any idiot could see that.

They also take a long term hit if Sanchez's arm blows up because he was overworked too quickly.

 

[le_sean]

Kershaw:
20 y/o - 107 innings
21 y/o - 171 innings (30 starts)

Scherzer:
23 y/o - 56 innings
24 y/o - 170 (30 starts)

Bumgarner
20 y/o - 111 innings
21 y/o - 204 innings

Tillman
24 - 86 innings
25 - 206 innings

Sale:
2010 - 103 IP in College, 10 IP in A's, 23.1 in MLB
Total: 136.1

Clayton Kershaw:
2008 - 61.1 IP in AA, 107.2 MLB
Total: 168.3

Scherzer:
2008 - 53 IP in AAA, 56 IP in MLB
Total: 109

Bumgarner:
2010: 82.2 IP in AAA, 111 IP in MLB
Total: 193.2

Tillman:
2012: 3.1 IP in AA, 89.1 IP in AAA, 86 IP in MLB
Total: 178.2

Sanchez:
Most ever is 133.1 IP in 2014, which is two years ago.

It helps to do a bit of research. Unless you think only MLB innings pitched count.

 

[Discoverer]

Yes, explaining the science behind inning limits as an industry secret is a conspiracy. Besides, research would be far more fine tuned than an arbitrary number.

The science behind injury prevention being an industry secret is not a conspiracy. It's worth literally millions and millions of dollars.

And research being far more fine tuned than an arbitrary number is exactly what I've been arguing this entire time.

 

[Red Piller]

The big picture is too many people with vested interests on the health and future of Aaron Sanchez, who don't particularly care about the opportunity cost, which is winning a World Series. There's obviously risk, like there is with anything else in life. Given the current circumstances of where the Jays are in the standings and their current roster, as a management staff, you should be willing to take on that risk every single time this type of scenario presents itself. It's as though they're refusing to deal prospects for a star pitcher during a year when they're going for it, because of what the prospects mean to their future. There's a reason why so many teams risk their future players for current opportunities. This situation should be taken the exact same way. The only difference is that you're risking Sanchez's future for Sanchez's current success.

No, the difference in that scenario is teams are acquiring vets or guys that can already go full seasons to help win a championship. I understand what you are saying, but again, its the big picture you have to look at not just one year. You don't take a chance on ruining a guys future like this. Its for the good of the player and the team going forward. For a fan invested, maybe the optics look bad but they shouldn't. I think most people who follow baseball more than casually understands the decision because this is what needs to happen. Its not like he is off the team, he will be out in high leverage situations in the playoffs if they make it, and you will be happy he is.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

So if the player performs healthy and says he's healthy - he's secretly lying and his performance means nothing.

Riiiight.

.

Players lie about their health all the time because they don't want to be seen as letting their team down. They also don't want to lose their spot, but that doesn't apply to Aaron Sanchez.

Besides which, at this stage very much doubt there is anyone who has consistently started since April that could be considered "healthy". Maybe David Ortiz.

 

[Red Piller]

So if the player performs healthy and says he's healthy - he's secretly lying and his performance means nothing.

Riiiight.

This cuts both ways. You could say the player is lying because they want to play. You could say the player would want to take himself out because he wants to protect his livelihood and be able to earn a contract. You can speculate all you want, or you can take things at face value.

What is there to speculate? I'm dealing with the facts. Heres the facts, Sanchez was moved to the bullpen because the Jays know that there needs to be an innings limit on a young pitcher. You are speculating on why he should stay in the rotation.

Players do lie to help the team win. Shocker I know. Its why guys who have concussions in hockey or football are on the next shift, or next play.

 

[Puckstuff]

It wasn't sarcastic. It was a genuine question, and it was based on the quote by you that I responded to:



So you wanted Sanchez to stay in the rotation, but because they didn't upgrade the lineup enough you now don't think their chances of winning are good enough, so you might as well protect him and plan for next season? That's ludicrous.

Take the Rangers, for example. The additions of Beltran and Lucroy should make their offense approximately as good as the Jays going forward. Their rotation remains significantly worse, even once Sanchez is removed. And their bullpen is much better, but still kinda bad. The Jays bullpen has been ok, improved slightly at the deadline, and will improve significantly with the addition of Sanchez.

I think no matter what, if Sanchez has a drop in his velocity, and they see a fatigued Aaron Sanchez, it would be nonsensical to keep using him in that role. When this happens, they will take him out, as they should. I've always believed this. Common sense.

Texas is the favourite to win the A.L. Jeff Blair was talking about this earlier today.

 

[Longshot]

Can we stop thinking of Sanchez as some simple asset that you can do with what you please and start thinking of him more like a human being? This is his career we are talking about and people don't give a **** if he destroys his arm just because they want a World Series.

People act like the Jays want to do this. Who the hell would ever want to throw their staff ace into the bullpen? It's not some simple decision they made off the cuff. Please think for a second.

Why is everybody acting like this is some big surprise?

The decision to transition Sanchez back to the bullpen was made in the spring. While the exact details and timing weren't known then, this was always the plan.

 

[Bad News Benning]

Long term, the Jays offense takes a big hit with Edwin and JB (and potentially Saunders) likely leaving.

Right now is the time to go for it. Bird in hand. Any idiot could see that.

JB has been complete ass this year compared to his usual production. 0.4 WAR corner OF is pretty easy to replace.

I still like our odds of keeping Edwin. We can pay the man the 20 million or whatever he is asking for no problem.