Blue Jays Discussion: TOR Acquires Francisco Liriano, Scott Feldman, Mike Bolsinger

[Woodman19]

The one thing I will say is that I've always taken MiL innings to be of significantly less stress than ML innings since they are more controllable/less results focused.

Hutchison is actually a really good example here. He threw 70-ish innings in 2010 and then went up to to 150 in 2011. But I never really considered that a massive red flag, because it was more just because he went from short season to full season ball. Averaged 4.5 innings per start in 2010 and 5.5 in 2011 (based on his stats, I would guess that he wasn't massively stressed in any of them).

Of course, then 2012 happened.

I believe Hutchison had some mechanical changes in between that saw his velocity tick up a click or two.

 

[Woodman19]

Aaron is one guy - let's not get carried away now.

Winning a World Series and creating a lifetime of memories for a fan base takes precedence over any one single player potentially getting hurt down the road.

It does when you have a possible 5 WAR asset under team control for 4.5 more years of very team friendly $.

I would bet the "Halladay years" helped bring in more new fans and memories for a franchise then a quick exit in the playoffs in say 98 would have done

 

[Eyedea]

Ok fair enough, so then jump back one season... he went from 68 innings in 1989 between AA and AAA, to 157 innings in 1990. That's a 131% increase in one season. Arm stayed in tact.

Point is, we don't know what will happen to Sanchez's health if he stays in the rotation, but we do know that the team's outlook from the day he is removed from the rotation is far more bleak for this season than it would be if he remained in the rotation.

It's a different era nowadays. Guzman had zero command of his pitches early on in his pro career so they threw him in the pen through 1988-1989. He then went full swingman in 1990 before going back to a starter full time in 1991. It's the same reason why you're not going to see a guy pitch in as many appearances for as many batters as Duane Ward did during the 80s and 90s.

At least with Sanchez they are taking the necessary precautions to have him still pitch for the team this season while not increasing his innings/pitches to a murderous peak.

 

[Kurtz]

Eh, the people who want Sanchez in the rotation are likely the people who didn't realize the team existed until last August and would be the first ones to bail on the team if Sanchez blew out his arm and the team went down the crapper. Saving his arm and fielding a competitive team will simply keep the casuals around as long as there is a sniff of contention to be had.

I don't think it's the casuals, I think it's more likely to be the people who saw the Nats blow their chance at the World Series by sitting Strasburg, only to see him injured anyway.

And the decision to shut down Strat was a lot more justifiable given that he was sitting on 160 IP after only 24 IP the year before. Despite this, the move to sit him was much lampooned and in retrospect looks like a horrible blunder:

But he blew it on Strasburg. This isn’t a second guess, it was a first guess more than a year ago when Rizzo first announced his intentions. Almost everyone in baseball outside of Washington thought Rizzo was making a mistake then — especially when the Nats emerged as a clear championship contender — and they believe it even more firmly now.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/spor...36ebd6-2537-11e3-b3e9-d97fb087acd6_story.html

 

[theaub]

Fun 'different era' fact: Greg Maddux got drafted as an 18 year old in 1984. Pitched for 2.5 seasons in the minors. Averaged over 7 innings per start.

People would be launched into the sun if that happened today.

 

[Goonface2k14]

131 was his previous career high (1986), so the increase should calculated off of that.

Its probably best to just seek a different example. Sale is one that helps that side of the argument.

Ok sure, Guzman is one guy, so is Sanchez.

Your point is taken - and perhaps Sale is a better example, like Jayson Stark pointed out. Or so many others.

You could throw names out on either side of the argument, but the point is simple - Sanchez is a huge part of the success of this team as it currently stands, and there's a World Series title at stake. Putting him in the pen is an awfully big opportunity cost for the sake of one guy's future health, who might not even be with the team down the road. Always go for the championship title, there are zero guarantees in the future.