Blue Jays Discussion: TOR Acquires Francisco Liriano, Scott Feldman, Mike Bolsinger

[frost king]

David Ortiz is done after this year. They are paying him that kind of money, and he is a DH. Edwin is the perfect replacement for him for around the same money.

Ortiz is only making $16M a season

 

[Discoverer]

Will you continue to believe that priests, despite their cumulative millions of years practicing the art of religion, are able to communicate with God better than I can?

I find your deferral to authority on this subject quite surprising given that up until now your posts have always relied on hard proof and hard data.

You equating this to a science/religion debate is a bit strange. I'm not saying I believe in them so what they're doing is right. I'm saying I don't know enough about the topic to say that what they're doing is wrong. There's a huge difference. I can see equating the former to religion and blind faith, but the latter (not making up my mind one way or the other because of a dearth of evidence in either direction) is a pretty basic tenet of scientific research.

I rely on hard proof and data when it's available. Right now, it's not. I'm inclined to believe they have a lot more information than we do based on the things they've said they're paying attention to, but absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

 

[Eyedea]

Some food for thought...

Aaron has thrown 2078 pitches this year vs 1449 last year (not including playoffs).

He has started 21 games vs pitching in 50 total games last year (including 11 starts).

If we limited him to 9 more starts, he would throw somewhere around 3000 pitches and we would have better control over his warming up.

If he goes to the pen, we warm him to bring him in, he doesn't throw side sessions, and we potentially stress his arm multiple days in a row instead of giving him days off.

I don't think the idea is reduction in demand (of the arm), but more so the ability to prolong his effectiveness for this season. There's isn't enough evidence (or any?) to support reduced stress from switching roles, but there may be some type of relationship between velocity and stress (and about a 10-15% increase in TJS for starters that throw 95+ compared to relievers that do the same). Granted there's still a chance he can blow out his arm while in the bullpen (or he could do so in his very next start, fingers crossed), but considering he's reached uncharted territory for his arm they're trying to do everything they can to make sure he doesn't have to be shutdown for the rest of the season. Him saying he's not fatigued helps his case to be put into the bullpen rather than to be shutdown completely.

 

[Discoverer]

Finally, if you're suggesting that the Jays were going to do this to Sanchez on day one, you're directly contradicting Discoverer's point that the Jays have decided on this only after gathering info as the season progressed.

Not really. They said from day one they would likely be moving him eventually. The specific point at which that occurred was going to be based on information gathered throughout the season.

 

[Kurtz]

Its ironic that people are talking about Darvish holding up because he is a guy that threw a TON of pitches in Japan. His pitchcounts would get up to 130 or 140 in games. And now he has health problems with his arm and neck. People wonder why teams coddle pitchers? Yu Darvish is a perfect example.

Darvish had TJ in his 10th professional season. I'm not sure he's the ideal example for your point.

 

[zeke]

David Ortiz is done after this year. They are paying him that kind of money, and he is a DH. Edwin is the perfect replacement for him for around the same money.

red sox are paying Hanley and Panda $20m each already to man 1B/DH, and two of thejr mowt mlbbready hitters shaw and travis are 1B as well.

and they badly need starting pitching.

 

[Bad News Benning]

He's been amazing since returning. And we know that TJS are now successful vast majority of the time. To expect him not to last 2 more months is morbidly optimistic.

He came back and they had to put him on the DL again. He hasn't even gone over 100 pitches this year so we don't know how his arm will respond to the added stress.

I never said he wouldn't make it to october but counting on him to pitch on short rest in the playoffs would be career suicide. Rangers will need 4 starters.

 

[mikeyz]

I cannot believe that they are putting Sanchez in the BP.

The guy is leading the A.L in ERA and is top 5 in WHIP!

What a ****ing stupid decision.

 

[Eyedea]

Darvish had TJ in his 10th professional season. I'm not sure he's the ideal example for your point.

That's actually when it started going downhill for Dice-K.

 

[Kurtz]

I rely on hard proof and data when it's available. Right now, it's not. I'm inclined to believe they have a lot more information than we do based on the things they've said they're paying attention to, but absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

But that's not quite accurate. We have hard data that tells us he's throwing just as fast today as he was 4 months ago. We also have data that tells us that he's actually walking less guys than he was during the first 2 months of the season, which suggests that there's no issue with his release point etc. Wildness and decrease in velocity are the two surest signs of pitcher fatigue, and he's displayed neither.

 

[theaub]

Jeff Passan (who this year released a very, very good book about arm injuries and how no one knows anything about them):



(side note: there's a good part of the book where Passan asks AA why he limited Nicolino/Syndergaard/Sanchez to three innings per start in the minors, and AA basically says they have no idea and there's no proof that it would actually prevent injuries. Which is why outside of a pre-existing injury I'm still wary of saying the Jays have anything concrete beyond what you can find with a good internet search).

 

[Eyedea]

Jeff Passan (who this year released a very, very good book about arm injuries and how no one knows anything about them):

But at the same time:



They could be going about this as safe as they wanted to and Sanchez could still find a way to get injured.

 

[Apotheosis]

You know the team with the best lineup doesn't just get handed the World Series, right? Why are you so obsessed with the need to have the best offense while ignoring every other aspect of the game?

I don't think he was talking about just offence. The Cubs specifically have a deeper and better rotation and a better bullpen.

 

[Sokil]

They could be going about this as safe as they wanted to and Sanchez could still find a way to get injured.

He could slip in a shower.

So what's better, to wait for Sanchez to fatigue and take him out completely or to just move him to the bullpen before he's actually fatigued and continue to get him to contribute late in the season? Seems like an obvious answer.

This is a faulty question because you're implying he will absolutely get fatigued as a starter.

 

[Sokil]

I cannot believe that they are putting Sanchez in the BP.

The guy is leading the A.L in ERA and is top 5 in WHIP!

What a ****ing stupid decision.

That's what Jim Bowden says, but apparently he didn't attend the secret GM meetings on the pitch count curse.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/video/bowden-terrible-decision-to-move-sanchez-to-bullpen~922639

 

[Discoverer]

But that's not quite accurate. We have hard data that tells us he's throwing just as fast today as he was 4 months ago. We also have data that tells us that he's actually walking less guys than he was during the first 2 months of the season, which suggests that there's no issue with his release point etc. Wildness and decrease in velocity are the two surest signs of pitcher fatigue, and he's displayed neither.

Zone % by month:

April - 48.0%
May - 50.0%
June - 49.0%
July - 43.9%

That's a pretty big dropoff. I would love to know whether it's been a conscious decision to try to generate more weak contact and swings and misses or if he's just not throwing as many strikes.

 

[zeke]

Seems like Jays management abides by the precautionary principle more strictly than posters on these boards...

Shapkins have matching "Risk Managememt" tatoos .

 

[Goonface2k14]

Even with losing all three (if it comes to that), the Jays are still in as good of a position as they were in going in to last winter.

This is not the end of the window of opportunity.

Perhaps it isn't, but chances are (regardless of who comes and who goes), in any given season, you're not at the top of the division in August. Especially if you have Boston and NYY to compete with. Has everyone forgotten all the years between 1993 and 2015?

 

[le_sean]

This is a faulty question because you're implying he will absolutely get fatigued as a starter.

I'm not implying anything. It's a gamble. Even if it's 50/50 of fatiguing or not, it's still best to take the 50% that he is and have him in the bullpen. Having Sanchez in the bullpen is better than not having Sanchez at all.

 

[zeke]

I don't think he was talking about just offence. The Cubs specifically have a deeper and better rotation and a better bullpen.

a more proven one, maybe.

Sanchez: 21gs, 6.6ip/gs, 63era-, 77fip-, 81xfip-, 5.9awar/32gs
Arrieta: 21gs, 6.4ip/gs, 67era-, 73fip-, 82xfip-, 5.6awar/32gs

Estrada: 18gs, 6.5ip/gs, 70era-, 92fip-, 105xfip-, 5.0awar/32gs
Hendricks: 20gs, 6.2ip/gs, 55era-, 81fip-, 90xfip-, 5.3awar/32gs

Happ: 21gs, 6.2ip/gs, 73era-, 91fip-, 96xfip-, 4.7awar/32gs
Lester: 21gs, 6.1ip/gs, 72era, 95fip-, 90xfip-, 4.3awar/32gs

Stroman: 22gs, 6.5ip/gs, 110era-, 88fip-, 80xfip-, 2.6awar/32gs
Lackey: 21gs, 6.5ip/gs, 90era, 93fip-, 93xfip-, 3.6awar/32gs

Dickey: 22gs, 6.0ip/gs, 108era-, 127fip-, 111xfip-, 0.5awar/32gs
Hammel: 20gs, 5.7ip/gs, 79era-, 106fip-, 104xfip-, 3.3awar/32gs

 

[Goonface2k14]

I'm not implying anything. It's a gamble. Even if it's 50/50 of fatiguing or not, it's still best to take the 50% that he is and have him in the bullpen. Having Sanchez in the bullpen is better than not having Sanchez at all.

Having Sanchez in the rotation is better than having Sanchez in the bullpen which is better than not having Sanchez at all which is better than anything RA Dickey.

 

[canucksfan100]

Personally id let Bautista walk and try and nab Josh Reddick. both are injury prone but Reddick better defender and much younger. He is also a lefty


Carlos Gomez would be my other choice to replace Joey Bats, very different player but hes having a offseason, but is known to be a five tool player and bring more speed to the team.

 

[Puckstuff]

a more proven one, maybe.

Sanchez: 21gs, 6.6ip/gs, 63era-, 77fip-, 81xfip-, 5.9awar/32gs
Arrieta: 21gs, 6.4ip/gs, 67era-, 73fip-, 82xfip-, 5.6awar/32gs

Estrada: 18gs, 6.5ip/gs, 70era-, 92fip-, 105xfip-, 5.0awar/32gs
Hendricks: 20gs, 6.2ip/gs, 55era-, 81fip-, 90xfip-, 5.3awar/32gs

Happ: 21gs, 6.2ip/gs, 73era-, 91fip-, 96xfip-, 4.7awar/32gs
Lester: 21gs, 6.1ip/gs, 72era, 95fip-, 90xfip-, 4.3awar/32gs

Stroman: 22gs, 6.5ip/gs, 110era-, 88fip-, 80xfip-, 2.6awar/32gs
Lackey: 21gs, 6.5ip/gs, 90era, 93fip-, 93xfip-, 3.6awar/32gs

Dickey: 22gs, 6.0ip/gs, 108era-, 127fip-, 111xfip-, 0.5awar/32gs
Hammel: 20gs, 5.7ip/gs, 79era-, 106fip-, 104xfip-, 3.3awar/32gs

Always appreciate you posting the numbers Zeke, however it looks much different without Aaron Sanchez. If we have the chance to play the Cubs (when it actually matters) , we're playing with Liriano not Sanchez. They have a slightly better offence as well. They are a more well rounded team, with a better playoff rotation. It would be an epic world series finals though.

If the Jays improved them selves yesterday with a Reddick/Hill type deal; it's a much different conversation. I might even have the Jays tied or ahead.

The Jays really have to bank on Liriano getting it together, that could be a huge determining factor. Playing on a winning team, with other dominicans, in an energy hostile environment, playing with a familiar catcher - maybe he finds another gear.

The Jays will challenge in the post-season but I don't have them as a favourite anymore.

 

[AllDay28]

Aaron pitches 200+ this yr, gets hurt, never pitches again, and all of you cry.

Aaron goes to the bullpen. becomes an elite 7/8 inning guy instantly, saves arm, still valuable, you cry.

No win. ever.

 

[le_sean]

Having Sanchez in the rotation is better than having Sanchez in the bullpen which is better than not having Sanchez at all which is better than anything RA Dickey.

Coming from someone who doesn't care if his arm explodes as long as the Jays win a World Series.

I'd rather have a healthy ace for the next 5-10 seasons.