Blue Jays Discussion: TOR Acquires Francisco Liriano, Scott Feldman, Mike Bolsinger

[StuckOutHere]

McGuire and Ramirez come in at 4 and 5 on MLBs Jays prospect list.

 

[theaub]

You know the team with the best lineup doesn't just get handed the World Series, right? Why are you so obsessed with the need to have the best offense while ignoring every other aspect of the game?

Its really weird, considering the Blue Jays had the best offense by a significant amount last year and last I checked didn't win.

 

[Kurtz]

You not knowing the science behind it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

It doesn't exist because we've seen 0 proof. Science relies on proof. What you're advocating is faith without evidence: religion.

 

[southpaw24]

If only smoak could hit a curveball... Just like Cerrano....

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Regarding Sanchez, my vote would definitely go towards continue pitching him in the starting rotation. Unless he hits a brick wall where he starts to fatigue and his fastball starts tailing off, I'd ride with him.

All this concern about overexerting his arm at this point. But my concern is stunting him all of a sudden. His arm/body is used to pitching every 5 days, roughly 100 pitches over 6 to 8 innings. And now he is going to drop down to an inning, possibly two, probably pitching in games more frequently than he does as a starter, and will face situations where he warms up only to not enter the game. I do question whether altering his routine mid-season just like that will have an adverse effect. I'd almost rather see them shut him down.

That's without even mentioning that they are removing their best starter with the stretch run towards the playoffs in full swing.

 

[Anthrax442]

If only smoak could hit a curveball... Just like Cerrano....

bats are afraid

 

[Discoverer]

It doesn't exist because we've seen 0 proof. Science relies on proof. What you're advocating is faith without evidence: religion.

So you will continue to believe the Jays, despite their increased reliance on science via the enhancement of the analytics department and the creation of the high performance department, don't have evidence to support their decision, until such time as they choose to make the science public?

 

[Goonface2k14]

So much speculation on Sanchez and his arm and the risk of him taking on "x" number of innings.

What a joke.

You are in a pennant race. These situations don't happen every year. The team is poised to compete with teams like Texas, Cleveland, Boston and Baltimore. When you're in a season where you can win the whole damn thing, you don't remove your number one ace, Cy Young candidate pitcher from the rotation in August, when he is on an absolute tear, regardless of the innings increase.

I've heard people say yeah but what about long term for Sanchez? I say who gives a rat's behind. There is so much uncertainty about next year and beyond (Edwin likely wearing Boston red and white makes my stomach turn just a bit), that you have to go for it now.

In trying to think rationally about this from all angles, I am guessing Sanchez' agent and Atkins/Shapiro are behind all of this, because it helps protect their long term risk and job security. They would rather not take a chance, as low as it might be, that Sanchez blows out his elbow, so that they can fire him into the rotation again next season and beyond, rather than the potentially have a big party this season and crash and burn next season, and potentially get fired. Selfish management trumps the fan base and the potential for a championship season. What a joke.

 

[Anthrax442]

Misguided or not, I think that they are correct to think of the player's long term health and with that, the future of our rotation. Can't find talent like that just anywhere. If there is a small chance he can blow his arm, there is little harm in putting him into the pen this year.

 

[Sokil]

You not knowing the science behind it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

Please kind sir, provide some of that science. I'm sure it's out there. Or are you saying it's a trade secret, passed down from GM to GM as a sort of verbal history over campfire stories during spring training in Florida?

Misguided or not, I think that they are correct to think of the player's long term health and with that, the future of our rotation. Can't find talent like that just anywhere. If there is a small chance he can blow his arm, there is little harm in putting him into the pen this year.

There's a small chance any pitcher in any circumstance can blow his arm. He has no injury history so there's nothing to specifically try and avoid.

And like one caller said on the radio last week, relievers get hurt as much if not more than starters. Right now he pitches every 5 days, has a static routine and is working well with it. Now he'll be in the pen and pitching on short or inconsistent rest. That up's the possibility of something going wrong, if anything.

I've heard people say yeah but what about long term for Sanchez? I say who gives a rat's behind. There is so much uncertainty about next year and beyond (Edwin likely wearing Boston red and white makes my stomach turn just a bit), that you have to go for it now.

Totally agree. And what's the worst case scenario here? He gets hurt and can't start the rest of the year? Oh no, back where we are now. Is anyone seriously concerned that him pitching more innings will suddenly cause him to implode and never pitch again? Miss all of next season? I'd rather have him miss all of next season than miss him in a pennant race where we're trying to win a championship.

 

[Discoverer]

Please kind sir, provide some of that science. I'm sure it's out there. Or are you saying it's a trade secret, passed down from GM to GM as a sort of verbal history over campfire stories during spring training in Florida?

No, I'm quite clearly saying that every team in baseball has a vested interest in the future productivity of their assets and there have been millions and millions of dollars invested into research that has been and likely always will be kept private because teams are trying to gain a competitive advantage over their competition rather than provide a knowledge base to the general public.

Why would I have access to that information? I'm not saying I do. Hell, I'm not even saying the Jays are right to make the decision they're making. What I am saying, however, is that I believe they have a ton of information and research to back up what they're doing and that it's not some arbitrary limit.

 

[Woodman19]

And like one caller said on the radio last week, relievers get hurt as much if not more than starters. Right now he pitches every 5 days, has a static routine and is working well with it. Now he'll be in the pen and pitching on short or inconsistent rest. That up's the possibility of something going wrong, if anything.

Totally agree. And what's the worst case scenario here? He gets hurt and can't start the rest of the year? Oh no, back where we are now. Is anyone seriously concerned that him pitching more innings will suddenly cause him to implode and never pitch again? Miss all of next season? I'd rather have him miss all of next season than miss him in a pennant race where we're trying to win a championship.

Many relievers are in the pen because they have terrible mechanics and the terrible mechanics give their pitches good movement. It's the terrible mechanics and often over use of breaking balls that destroy relievers, not the innings.

 

[HockeyGuruPitka]

The greed inside of me wants Sanchez to pitch in the rotation, the logical side of me wants sanchez to move to the pen.

I'd much rather not gamble with his future seeing how good he actually is. Showing CY young potential in his first season in the major leagues.

Id much rather we be a contender for the next 5-7 seasons, then just go for broke this year.

Not to mention he has a sub 2 era coming out of the pen.

Now if they can limit his pen innings, is there any chance he can spot start come wild card/playoff time?

 

[Anthrax442]

I think once he goes to pen, he will stay there. We got Stro, Happ and Estrada, we'll be okay.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

It doesn't exist because we've seen 0 proof. .

"Youth pitchers’ tissues have been shown to adapt to joint loading during pitching (6,7). Continued tissue adaptation, up until skeletal maturity, to repetitive mechanical loading can be a logical reason to limit consecutive season (year-to-year) increases in cumulative workload for a young pitcher. The theory being, young pitchers’ tissues have not had sufficient time to fully adapt to the cumulative workload experienced during a full MLB season. Following this theory, this may result in young pitchers’ tissues accumulating a greater level of cumulative damage during a single season, when compared to older pitchers with suitable tissue adaptation. Since the accumulated damage is in theory of a greater level in young pitchers, the offseason may not be a sufficient period of time for the required
healing/tissue adaptation to occur for the young pitcher to be able to pitch a greater number of innings the following season without an increased risk of injury."

https://www.researchgate.net/public...lely_by_restricting_number_of_innings_pitched

The article concludes that inning limits do not work BECAUSE they are not an accurate (at all) predictor of actual effort, however it does also conclude (or rather, assumes) that increasing said effort is a bad idea.

Second, based on my own knowledge: your body is a machine built to continue function even if a part or two does not work as intended. It does this by shifting workload from different muscles. This is one way to get injured, in addition to, yes, freak injuries that no amount of handling will prevent- though for some reason people are acting as though the only time injuries ever happen are freak, random acts of God.

But I digress: you can get injured when a minor injury or fatigue causes a change in mechanics because, as one part loses functionality, other parts work harder to pick up the slack. Now, there is no "safe" way to consistently throw baseballs 100 mph: but with conditioning and proper mechanics you can stretch it out long enough. But if you have someone whose body is not built to withstand the rigors of a 162 game season (and look, there is evidence of that), then you do need to ensure they build up that conditioning so their mechanics don't go out the window.

 

[theaub]

In trying to think rationally about this from all angles, I am guessing Sanchez' agent and Atkins/Shapiro are behind all of this, because it helps protect their long term risk and job security. They would rather not take a chance, as low as it might be, that Sanchez blows out his elbow, so that they can fire him into the rotation again next season and beyond, rather than the potentially have a big party this season and crash and burn next season, and potentially get fired. Selfish management trumps the fan base and the potential for a championship season. What a joke.

Wait what

I'm all on the Sanchez rotation train, but if the Jays win the WS this year they could win like 65 games per year through 2019 and Atkins would still be employed.

I disagree with it, but this is a huevos grandes move from the front office.

 

[Puckstuff]

You know the team with the best lineup doesn't just get handed the World Series, right? Why are you so obsessed with the need to have the best offense while ignoring every other aspect of the game?

I'm unclear how you have come to this hypothesis. If you've read my posts, I see value in upgrading every aspect of the team.

After doing a brief audit on the market and the Blue Jays needs, it was evident the price for starting pitching was to rich for us. I made this clear in my statements multiple times.

My opinion before the deadline was this - I simply do not see us upgrading on R.A Dickey. He is likely a 4.50 era pitcher, and even with Sanchez going to the bullpen, I would be fine with Dickey as the #4 starter in the playoffs because I don't see a huge upgrade here.

It turns out that sentiment was true. Unless we catch lightning in a bottle with Fransisco Liriano, it doesn't appear we have upgraded on R.A Dickey. That being said, i'm open minded, and there is always that possibility.

I saw value in a lefty in the bullpen - we failed, as of now.

So to reply to your sarcastic statement, I'm aware the best lineup in baseball doesn't guarantee you the world series. Nothing does; but would upgrading from Justin Smoak to Reddick/Lucroy/Beltran/Bruce make us a better team? I believe yes. It was a plausible scenario. It would have benefited and improved the team more then acquiring a statically similar pitcher to Dickey/Stroman.

Just because pitching was the bigger need, doesn't mean it was necessarily the best option to improving the team.

 

[Goonface2k14]

Wait what

I'm all on the Sanchez rotation train, but if the Jays win the WS this year they could win like 65 games per year through 2019 and Atkins would still be employed.

I disagree with it, but this is a huevos grandes move from the front office.

Perhaps Atkins remains employed, he is merely Shapiro's puppet anyways.

I just think that from Ross and Mark's perspective, their main focus is long term revenues and margins, rather than single season success. If they feel they are risking their long term chances of success by going for it this year, their first season at the helm, they'll defer towards mitigating the those risks. That way, they can try and remain in pennant races for the next few seasons and keep the Jays relevant over a longer period of time. Problem is, this is likely the season where they have the best chance at winning it all, but they would still rather put that potential first place finish aside (a slap in the face of a fan base that finally had a division win after over twenty season of mediocrity - think about that) for a better chance at decent (but not great) success over a longer period of time.

 

[pspot]

I like but seems like he's trying to have his cake and eat it to

Compete now and add prospects

I'm of the belief it's one or the other

 

[le_sean]

Can we stop thinking of Sanchez as some simple asset that you can do with what you please and start thinking of him more like a human being? This is his career we are talking about and people don't give a **** if he destroys his arm just because they want a World Series.

People act like the Jays want to do this. Who the hell would ever want to throw their staff ace into the bullpen? It's not some simple decision they made off the cuff. Please think for a second.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Can we stop thinking of Sanchez as some simple asset and start thinking of him more like a human being? This is his career we are talking about and people don't give a **** if he destroys his arm just because they want a World Series.
.

Here here!

Though to be fair Sanchez could privately want to continue be a starting pitcher this season.

 

[King Mapes]

Can we stop thinking of Sanchez as some simple asset that you can do with what you please and start thinking of him more like a human being? This is his career we are talking about and people don't give a **** if he destroys his arm just because they want a World Series.

People act like the Jays want to do this. Who the hell would ever want to throw their staff ace into the bullpen? It's not some simple decision they made off the cuff. Please think for a second.

1 word: Strasburg.

I get what you're saying but this doesn't mean he would blow his arm out and putting him in the Pen might not protect him.

 

[Discoverer]

So to reply to your sarcastic statement, I'm aware the best lineup in baseball doesn't guarantee you the world series. Nothing does; but would upgrading from Justin Smoak to Reddick/Lucroy/Beltran/Bruce make us a better team? I believe yes. It was a plausible scenario. It would have benefited and improved the team more then acquiring a statically similar pitcher to Dickey/Stroman.

Just because pitching was the bigger need, doesn't mean it was necessarily the best option to improving the team.

It wasn't sarcastic. It was a genuine question, and it was based on the quote by you that I responded to:

Agreed. I've changed my opinion on this. We likely don't have the depth in our lineup to defeat the Cubs or Rangers in my opinion. We should protect Sanchez for next season.

So you wanted Sanchez to stay in the rotation, but because they didn't upgrade the lineup enough you now don't think their chances of winning are good enough, so you might as well protect him and plan for next season? That's ludicrous.

Take the Rangers, for example. The additions of Beltran and Lucroy should make their offense approximately as good as the Jays going forward. Their rotation remains significantly worse, even once Sanchez is removed. And their bullpen is much better, but still kinda bad. The Jays bullpen has been ok, improved slightly at the deadline, and will improve significantly with the addition of Sanchez.

 

[theaub]

1 word: Strasburg.

I get what you're saying but this doesn't mean he would blow his arm out and putting him in the Pen might not protect him.

Bingo

You want to truly protect the guy? Give him three more starts and shut him down for the rest of the year.

 

[le_sean]

1 word: Strasburg.

I get what you're saying but this doesn't mean he would blow his arm out and putting him in the Pen might not protect him.

Maybe Strasburg should have been taken out of the rotation before and put into the bullpen like Sanchez. Then the Nationals might not have given up 4 runs to the Cards in the 9th inning of Game 5 of the ALDS.

I mean Strasburg had TJS and only pitched like 44 innings in 2011.

Sanchez is still going to be used and be a valuable piece.

Also one example doesn't prove anything. I could say "Matt Harvey". But there are so many factors. I'd rather the baseball experts with doctors on the payroll to make informed decisions.