Value of: Top Dollar for Lafreniere

[M Ace]

LaF has disappointed as a 1OA, but an honest assessment is his success has been restrained by inferior skating, which has improved from sub par to par. Between this and chemistry found with kid line of Chytil + Kakko, there is basis to believe my projection of him as another Steve Vickers level product.
He is a marketing coup for Canada based teams.

We should expect a premium return, but not a crazy overpay.
The other side must admit that we have no reason to deal him short of an offer too good to refuse, and do so in currency acceptable to NY.

At present, I believe the Oil, who want to max the McDrai years, would pay to add him as a foundation piece.

Rangers need to add some speed and youth. NY has not listened to bern, and done stupid win now rentals favoring vets over youth, and needs to compensate for this.

EDM can do
late 1st
Broberg
Holloway
McLeod
Lajoie

for

LaF
Jones
Leschyshn
Blidh
Belzille

Rs wi every aspect of this except for surrendering LaF, which is fine b'c it is a huge marketing coup to land LaF over Habs, Leafs, etc etc
and more importantly, LaF looks like he could trigger nicely w/McD/Drai.

Other pieces are a wince for Oil taking back less value in return, but they are expendable.

Until bread is dealt, Rs then get to do:
Ottman - Chytil - Kakko
Kreider - Zib - Holloway
Wheeler - Trocheck - Panarin
Cuylie - Goodrow - Pitlick

with other moves to follow

And you think you can get McLeod, Broberg, Holloway & Lavoie + a 1st for those spare parts?

That’s Oilers whole prospect pool

You wouldn’t even get Broberg/McLeod straight up for Lafrenniere at this point!

 

[Bank Shot]

It is a fair pt to note OP posture is Rs are looking to unload LaF and what is the max NY can get in that scenario.
It is fair to counter w/the construct I posted.
LaF as emerging Steve Vickers type, and factually true NY does not need to unload.
So respect courtesy to OP, but his premise is flawed and we do not have to accept less.

As I said, for EDM it is overpay, but it is currency they can live with.
.None of the guys I specified are stars. They have potential, but can afford to cough up.

Don't forget to throw in Skinner and another 1st for Johnny Brodzinski.

 

[TBF1972]

IF LaF skating does not regress, and as I expect he plays on a line w/chemistry, he will grow into 30 g seasons.

30 games?
sure

30 goals?

 

[oceanchild]

I would trade Hoglander and a third for him

 

[General Fanager]

Curious to see if Lafreniere’s early struggles can be blamed on the Rangers’ impotent 5v5 play, log jam at LW and coaching carousel and whether other franchises think he still has untapped value.

Wanting to see what’s the top value Laf could fetch. Or what you’d be willing to move if Laf came with a pick/another young player, etc. What’s the most he could bring back heading into D+4 right now.

Or maybe he just isnt that good? I mean I get what you are saying but sometimes the player is who he is....I am sure some GMs would still give it a shot though

 

[yianik]

Laf will not get top dollar. Just keep him ņ

 

[Profet]

does Kappo look better than Laf?

By a country mile.

Kakko is noticable on the ice. He carries the puck in traffic, he controls play.

You watch Kakko and it's obvious that if he can put it all together, he's a top line player.

Lafreniere is not that.

 

[goonybird]

Kakko actually looks like a good nhler is in there.

Hughes when he was struggling to score looked like a good nhler.

Lafreniere looks like a bag of shit and I'm still trying to find glimpses of the player I watched in junior. Like you really gotta start wondering about his mental state

 

[Silky Johnson]

Halak+ryder+2nd as is tradition now

Too much.

 

[LokiDog]

Or maybe he just isnt that good? I mean I get what you are saying but sometimes the player is who he is....I am sure some GMs would still give it a shot though

That’s actually my position - that it is the player, not the situation - but the thread is my way of gauging how others view him. You should see the discussion in the Lafreniere thread on our boards. I’m definitely not making excuses for him - I’m trying to see if I’m being too hard on him.

 

[General Fanager]

That’s actually my position - that it is the player, not the situation - but the thread is my way of gauging how others view him. You should see the discussion in the Lafreniere thread on our boards. I’m definitely not making excuses for him - I’m trying to see if I’m being too hard on him.

well I have to admit I am just looking at numbers. I dont see him play much unless he is playing The Habs...

Is it a bad luck thing or what? Does he seem engaged and getting chances or does he look lost out there??

 

[LokiDog]

well I have to admit I am just looking at numbers. I dont see him play much unless he is playing The Habs...

Is it a bad luck thing or what? Does he seem engaged and getting chances or does he look lost out there??

Mostly lost with some occasional solid fundamentals and a rare flash of talent. His skating is an issue, but the bigger problem is that his first step is already slow and he isn’t reading/processing the game quick enough to compensate for it anyway, so he just looks flat out sluggish. Everything about him looks slow. His skating, his telegraphed passes, the release on his shot. It looks like he’s struggling with the pace.

 

[General Fanager]

Mostly lost with some occasional solid fundamentals and a rare flash of talent. His skating is an issue, but the bigger problem is that his first step is already slow and he isn’t reading/processing the game quick enough to compensate for it anyway, so he just looks flat out sluggish. Everything about him looks slow. His skating, his telegraphed passes, the release on his shot. It looks like he’s struggling with the pace.

if that is the case then his value is dipping every time he hits the ice. I think its too late to trade him unless there is a dopey GM out there who isnt paying attention. The Rangers should just hope for the best or they would be selling low.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Not if his preseason play in any indication. Oof.

Because 3 big preseason games mean so much.

 

[Profet]

if that is the case then his value is dipping every time he hits the ice. I think its too late to trade him unless there is a dopey GM out there who isnt paying attention. The Rangers should just hope for the best or they would be selling low.

Selling low is only bad if you think the asset will gain in value in the future.
It's the common sunk cost fallacy.

Laf is what he is. Maybe some other GM/Coach thinks they can unlock him? That's where you trade him.

 

[HFpapi]

Don't ask me why, there's no good reason for it, but if there's one place I can kind of picture Lafreniere going and thriving it's St. Louis, growing with the Kyrou/Thomas core up front.

If the Rangers think they can go for it this year, would both team consider Parayko for Lafreniere + whatever filler is needed for salary?

Fox, Parayko, Miller, Trouba gives the NYR a great top 4.

In the right situation, Laf is still a highly skilled player with 35+ goal potential. He scored 19 goals ES two seasons ago.

 

[Mandar]

Honestly, he's a third line player....and there is no shame in that. Of course we would have loved our 1OA to be a star with huge production.....he just doesnt seem that type of player. It's the expectations that has our fan base so disappointed to the point that some want to get rid of him, and others think he is some sort of top six player who is getting shortchanged for various reasons - none of which they fault the player for.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Don't ask me why, there's no good reason for it, but if there's one place I can kind of picture Lafreniere going and thriving it's St. Louis, growing with the Kyrou/Thomas core up front.

If the Rangers think they can go for it this year, would both team consider Parayko for Lafreniere + whatever filler is needed for salary?

Fox, Parayko, Miller, Trouba gives the NYR a great top 4.

I'd be shocked it St Louis would agree to something like that.

In the right situation, Laf is still a highly skilled player with 35+ goal potential.

I don't see how. He doesn't generate nearly enough chances to reach that sort of goal total.

He scored 19 goals ES two seasons ago.

And he did so while shooting at 20% at ES. That was never going to be sustainable.

Last season his ES shooting % dropped to 11% (much closer to where you'd expect it), so he only had 13 ES goals.

35 goals would be a massive jump that is not supported by the data or the eye test.

 

[Profet]

It's the expectations that has our fan base so disappointed to the point that some want to get rid of him

I keep seeing this posted, but I don't believe it to be true.

Are people disappointed? Absolutely. But this is business. If we can trade him to someone who values him more than we do, and we can reclaim some value from his rapidly depreciating stock... you have to do it.

That's the position. If there is value to be had, you go get it. We believe his value will only go down hill as we move further from his draft year.

 

[Mandar]

I keep seeing this posted, but I don't believe it to be true.

Are people disappointed? Absolutely. But this is business. If we can trade him to someone who values him more than we do, and we can reclaim some value from his rapidly depreciating stock... you have to do it.

That's the position. If there is value to be had, you go get it. We believe his value will only go down hill as we move further from his draft year.

I dont disagree....but you know that are a certain number on our board that would trade him in a millisecond.

At this point, I would think we could only get back a third line return or a draft pic (or maybe a combo). Thats not gonna move the needle for the NYR at all. Best to keep him, and let him do his thing on the third line.

 

[Three On Zero]

Rangers won’t get nearly the value for him they think they should. Probably late 1st/early 2nd + B level prospect

 

[Skolman]

LaF has disappointed as a 1OA, but an honest assessment is his success has been restrained by inferior skating, which has improved from sub par to par. Between this and chemistry found with kid line of Chytil + Kakko, there is basis to believe my projection of him as another Steve Vickers level product.
He is a marketing coup for Canada based teams.

We should expect a premium return, but not a crazy overpay.
The other side must admit that we have no reason to deal him short of an offer too good to refuse, and do so in currency acceptable to NY.

At present, I believe the Oil, who want to max the McDrai years, would pay to add him as a foundation piece.

Rangers need to add some speed and youth. NY has not listened to bern, and done stupid win now rentals favoring vets over youth, and needs to compensate for this.

EDM can do
late 1st
Broberg
Holloway
McLeod
Lajoie

for

LaF
Jones
Leschyshn
Blidh
Belzille

Rs wi every aspect of this except for surrendering LaF, which is fine b'c it is a huge marketing coup to land LaF over Habs, Leafs, etc etc
and more importantly, LaF looks like he could trigger nicely w/McD/Drai.

Other pieces are a wince for Oil taking back less value in return, but they are expendable.

Until bread is dealt, Rs then get to do:
Ottman - Chytil - Kakko
Kreider - Zib - Holloway
Wheeler - Trocheck - Panarin
Cuylie - Goodrow - Pitlick

with other moves to follow

What are you smoking?

Take out the 1st & Edmonton still declines

 

[bernmeister]

And you think you can get McLeod, Broberg, Holloway & Lavoie + a 1st for those spare parts?

That’s Oilers whole prospect pool

You wouldn’t even get Broberg/McLeod straight up for Lafrenniere at this point!

your op and you are entitled to be wrong.
Look at it thiis way....
Bro was drafted what, 8, 9OA?
Holloway was like `16Oa?
[from memory and I'm too busy to check]
add McLeod was not a 1st rounder, right?
and EDM 2024 1ST projects to be late, yes?

so, if you had a 1OA on the table for like 8 + 16 + very late 1st +,
would you take it?

Sure Laf is disappointing as a 1OA
but he is still a good investment $$ wise due to marketing, intangibles, and shows shooting ability. The hope is, like w/Chytil + Kakko, he would find chemistry w/McD/Drai/+ ______

I am still bullish on Broberg.
But has he excelled and burst on the scene day 1 like Mo Seider? NO.
Has Holloway seized/cemented a W slot? NO

So if you are really honest about it, the upside of LaF could work for Oil, and NY could use speed/depth.

 

[HFpapi]

I'd be shocked it St Louis would agree to something like that.



I don't see how. He doesn't generate nearly enough chances to reach that sort of goal total.


And he did so while shooting at 20% at ES. That was never going to be sustainable.

Last season his ES shooting % dropped to 11% (much closer to where you'd expect it), so he only had 13 ES goals.

35 goals would be a massive jump that is not supported by the data or the eye test.

I don't think it's that crazy for a rebuilding/re-tooling team to trade a 30 year old dman on 6.5 mil in favour of a former #1 pick.

Granted Lafreniere hasn't shown nearly enough but I think it's still lightly too early to throw in the towel on him until he gets some better opportunities.

Which segues into the next point. While his shooting percentage may have been unsustainable that year, the fact that he scored 19 ES goals with virtually no PP time and 3rd line 5v5 minutes more than offsets that.

He hasn't earned top line/top PP minutes in NY but nonetheless if he were given them on a team like STL I think he can see a huge jump in production.

I think the risk is worth the reward for a former highly touted #1 overall pick who is still only 21.

 

[bernmeister]

Mostly lost with some occasional solid fundamentals and a rare flash of talent. His skating is an issue, but the bigger problem is that his first step is already slow and he isn’t reading/processing the game quick enough to compensate for it anyway, so he just looks flat out sluggish. Everything about him looks slow. His skating, his telegraphed passes, the release on his shot. It looks like he’s struggling with the pace.

His skating HAS BEEN an issue and still is nothing to brag about, but has turned corner from sub par to par. I agree that recognizing/processing is a potential problem, one that will be resolved with experience, but meanwhile the solution is to just play the kid line intact w/mo = 1st Ine mins.
Of course, instead of yielding to this correct logic, some insist on playing him at RW, or other lines. That should wait until his skating is better.

What are you smoking?

Take out the 1st & Edmonton still declines

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