Value of: Top Dollar for Lafreniere

[bernmeister]

How is Lafreniere emerging as a Steve Vickers type? Vickers already had a top 10 goals finish by his 3rd season.

It's almost impossible how out of touch this sounds.

If things don't change soon, his value could be almost worthless by this time next year. He's not exactly a gamble at 2.3M and his 5v5 production rates have declined each year. This could be the last off-season where he could potentially return a promising young player / higher draft pick. That could put even more pressure on the rangers to trade him before his value falls any lower.

Vickers could skate early on.
You have to look at where the player is, and how he projects going forward, not nec as what he has done
IF IF IF there was zero progress on the skating, that would be fair.
Took an all too long 2ish yrs but finally has barely gotten on par for NHL level skating.
Assumes he does not regress and at min retains about that much.

Also assuming NYR will not be stupid and keep him + Chytil + KK together, b'c why ruin chemistry? But of course, they may not..

Simply put, I view vickers as consistent 30g scorer.
I see LaF barely out of his 20s w/that kind of potential.

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

If he was drafted anywhere outside the top 3, people would be happy with his progress. He's been a middle 6 winger who has consistently paced for close to 20 goals while starting in the NHL at 18. He also plays a hard nosed game and brings things away from scoring.

The problem is that he was hyped as a near-generational prospect, and it looks like he will simply be a very good NHL player. He still likely goes in the top 5-10 of his draft year in a redraft.

Given that he is now cost controlled for the next two years, I don't see why the Rangers trade him for anything short of a strong offer. Something like what Dach went for.

I think he's out of the top 10 now easily for his draft.

Stutzle
Mercer
Jarvis
Sanderson
Nikishkin
Perfetti
Raymond
Lundell
Drysdale
Guhle

I'd easily take any of the above over Laf at this point

 

[Crazy8oooo]

The pt is, setting aside public relations coup and $$$ bonanza for not playing 2nd fiddle to Habs, etc, is that the upside of LaF to potentially be superior with elite talent already there is worth the risk of lost potential on the pieces they give up.

For Rs, it is better depth, speed and upside on Broberg cause they are gonna have to deal Lindgren.


disagree
enough multiple pieces are better IF they have sufficient upside

Sure, but the premise of this thread, per the OP, was to see what the best offer would be while shopping him to other teams. You then changed it up and said it has to be an overpay and other teams have to accept that. If Edmonton (per your scenario) were to be contacted by the Rangers to unload Laf, why again are they overpaying? It makes no sense. If Edmonton were calling about him and the scenario were reversed, then sure.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Vickers could skate early on.
You have to look at where the player is, and how he projects going forward, not nec as what he has done
IF IF IF there was zero progress on the skating, that would be fair.
Took an all too long 2ish yrs but finally has barely gotten on par for NHL level skating.
Assumes he does not regress and at min retains about that much.

Also assuming NYR will not be stupid and keep him + Chytil + KK together, b'c why ruin chemistry? But of course, they may not..

Simply put, I view vickers as consistent 30g scorer.
I see LaF barely out of his 20s w/that kind of potential.

Vickers was a first line forward, he averaged a 37g 78p pace through his first 4 years. Lafreniere had never been anywhere near that, and he really shown any evidence to suggest he's capable of progressing much beyond where he is now. These aren't comparable players.

Lafreniere has never even scored 20 goals or 40 points. If he turns into a 20g 40-50p player that's a win at this point.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Sucks at the Powerplay, doesn't kill penalties, plays massively sheltered offensive favorable minutes, is on a bridge deal.

No thanks, Leaguewide.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

I don't see the appeal of Lafreniere as a reclamation project (like Dach / Newhook etc.). He doesn't show any flashes of brilliance in his game. He looks slow, plodding and anemic. He doesn't play defensive and its like his skills have deteriorated. He reminds me of a poor man's Tyler Toffoli.

Nothing screams out take a chance on me. I think he will have a mediocre career as a bottom 6-er.

 

[Baksfamous112]

There is zero percent chance Montreal would trade Dach for Lafreniere. Dach is far better.

Turcotte is a long shot to even be an nhl regular, so New York wouldn’t do that.

Lafreniere is an awful 1oa, but not a terrible nhl player. Bad second liner but okay third liner. Value would be a late 1st or early 2nd. Problem is you can find guys like that pretty easily in free agency without giving up picks.


Dach is a far better skater, a better passer, and has higher iq. Lafreniere may have a better shot, but he can’t create space to get it off. I don’t think there’s a single gm in the league who would pick Lafreniere over Dach.

I don’t think he was specifically pointing at today’s Dach but rather at the time he was traded to Montreal where the potential was definitely there but hasn’t really panned out yet.

 

[Jeune Poulet]

A lot of people saw motre than a year ago that this guy needed a change of scenery. Lafreniere becomes more and more a reclamation project.

The sonner the Rangers cut their loss, the more they'll be able to salvage in value.... or what's left of it by now.

 

[TS Quint]

LaF has disappointed as a 1OA, but an honest assessment is his success has been restrained by inferior skating, which has improved from sub par to par. Between this and chemistry found with kid line of Chytil + Kakko, there is basis to believe my projection of him as another Steve Vickers level product.
He is a marketing coup for Canada based teams.

We should expect a premium return, but not a crazy overpay.
The other side must admit that we have no reason to deal him short of an offer too good to refuse, and do so in currency acceptable to NY.

At present, I believe the Oil, who want to max the McDrai years, would pay to add him as a foundation piece.

Rangers need to add some speed and youth. NY has not listened to bern, and done stupid win now rentals favoring vets over youth, and needs to compensate for this.

EDM can do
late 1st
Broberg
Holloway
McLeod
Lajoie

for

LaF
Jones
Leschyshn
Blidh
Belzille

Rs wi every aspect of this except for surrendering LaF, which is fine b'c it is a huge marketing coup to land LaF over Habs, Leafs, etc etc
and more importantly, LaF looks like he could trigger nicely w/McD/Drai.

Other pieces are a wince for Oil taking back less value in return, but they are expendable.

Until bread is dealt, Rs then get to do:
Ottman - Chytil - Kakko
Kreider - Zib - Holloway
Wheeler - Trocheck - Panarin
Cuylie - Goodrow - Pitlick

with other moves to follow

Are these actual forward lines you expect? Are they in order?

 

[Crazy8oooo]

Laf didn’t turn out great for a #1 overall, but he’s certainly not terrible. People claiming he’s useless and sucks are off base. He’s putting up points and nearly hit a half point a game this past season. If he were drafted outside of the top 10 or 15, he’d be considered a useful player.

On the flip side, he’s also not worth what some fans seem to think he should return.

He’d be worth a gamble for a team who could give him top 6 minutes if the price reflected him as what he’s been thus far and not what he was supposed to be. In that case, however, the rangers would probably just be better off keeping him.

 

[Copenhagen91]

LaF has disappointed as a 1OA, but an honest assessment is his success has been restrained by inferior skating, which has improved from sub par to par. Between this and chemistry found with kid line of Chytil + Kakko, there is basis to believe my projection of him as another Steve Vickers level product.
He is a marketing coup for Canada based teams.

We should expect a premium return, but not a crazy overpay.
The other side must admit that we have no reason to deal him short of an offer too good to refuse, and do so in currency acceptable to NY.

At present, I believe the Oil, who want to max the McDrai years, would pay to add him as a foundation piece.

Rangers need to add some speed and youth. NY has not listened to bern, and done stupid win now rentals favoring vets over youth, and needs to compensate for this.

EDM can do
late 1st
Broberg
Holloway
McLeod
Lajoie

for

LaF
Jones
Leschyshn
Blidh
Belzille

Rs wi every aspect of this except for surrendering LaF, which is fine b'c it is a huge marketing coup to land LaF over Habs, Leafs, etc etc
and more importantly, LaF looks like he could trigger nicely w/McD/Drai.

Other pieces are a wince for Oil taking back less value in return, but they are expendable.

Until bread is dealt, Rs then get to do:
Ottman - Chytil - Kakko
Kreider - Zib - Holloway
Wheeler - Trocheck - Panarin
Cuylie - Goodrow - Pitlick

with other moves to follow

Does it ever get tiresome being a troll?

 

[TS Quint]

If he was drafted anywhere outside the top 3, people would be happy with his progress. He's been a middle 6 winger who has consistently paced for close to 20 goals while starting in the NHL at 18. He also plays a hard nosed game and brings things away from scoring.

The problem is that he was hyped as a near-generational prospect, and it looks like he will simply be a very good NHL player. He still likely goes in the top 5-10 of his draft year in a redraft.

Given that he is now cost controlled for the next two years, I don't see why the Rangers trade him for anything short of a strong offer. Something like what Dach went for.

If you're the Rangers, gun to your head and you have to lose Schneider or Laf who do you lose?

 

[HuGo Sham]

Montreal offers that 2025 1st they got from Calgary for him. That's it.
or you can have 2nd rounder and a young player like Norlinder, Kidney etc.
Hab fans might not like it but I'd trade Harvey-Pinard with a pick for him too

 

[HFpapi]

Laf is still at the point (IMO and now only just on the outer brink of this being true) where the value you get for him at this point doesn't outweigh the potential risk that he ends up putting it together and becoming a 35 goal scorer.

Better to just keep him still and hope for the best.

If he doesn't show anything this season though I'm ready to throw in the towel on him.

 

[bernmeister]

Vickers was a first line forward, he averaged a 37g 78p pace through his first 4 years. Lafreniere had never been anywhere near that, and he really shown any evidence to suggest he's capable of progressing much beyond where he is now. These aren't comparable players.

Lafreniere has never even scored 20 goals or 40 points. If he turns into a 20g 40-50p player that's a win at this point.

IF LaF skating does not regress, and as I expect he plays on a line w/chemistry, he will grow into 30 g seasons.

My opinion, we'll see...

Are these actual forward lines you expect? Are they in order?

These are the lines I'd go with, pending moving Panarin.

 

[bernmeister]

Does it ever get tiresome being a troll?

You must be addressing the man in the mirror.

It is not being a troll to repudiate herd mentality, win now bs, etc etc.
physician, heal thyself

If you're the Rangers, gun to your head and you have to lose Schneider or Laf who do you lose?

I don't follow.
Schneid is not at risk
we can deal Trouba next season [mnc->ntic]
enuf cap room, so why

 

[malcb33]

There is zero percent chance Montreal would trade Dach for Lafreniere. Dach is far better.

Turcotte is a long shot to even be an nhl regular, so New York wouldn’t do that.

My guy, take a breath before you respond. I purposely bolded “like” for this exact reason and you still missed it.

“Like” - as in someone like those players (a young play with growth potential). Those players were used as an example (E.g) meaning in a similar position in terms of growth, not those exact players…

 

[TS Quint]

These are the lines I'd go with, pending moving Panarin.

Panarin on your 3rd line? Chytil over Trochek and Zib? Othman on the 1st? Why do you hate the Rangers so much?

You must be addressing the man in the mirror.

It is not being a troll to repudiate herd mentality, win now bs, etc etc.
physician, heal thyself


I don't follow.
Schneid is not at risk
we can deal Trouba next season [mnc->ntic]
enuf cap room, so why

We are talking about the draft and where you would put Laf today. You would take the 17th pick over the 1st wouldn't you?

If you are looking at the top end talent of that draft, you wouldn't put Laf into any consideration of comparing them to Laf would you?

He would be well outside the top3 and not really in any sort of conversation of that kind of talent.

 

[bernmeister]

Panarin on your 3rd line? Chytil over Trochek and Zib? Othman on the 1st? Why do you hate the Rangers so much?
...

case can be made for zib line getting most mins BUT
so can giving kid line top mins, slightly more.
I don't like Othman skating so far, but I'd give him mins if he can handle it at least minimally satisfactorily

 

[TS Quint]

case can be made for zib line getting most mins BUT
so can giving kid line top mins, slightly more.
I don't like Othman skating so far, but I'd give him mins if he can handle it at least minimally satisfactorily

Othman shouldn't play over Wheeler nevermind Krieder.s

As well Wheeler is a RW and would be on the 2nd line.

 

[TGWL]

Just draft Byfield next time.

If they had a do-over, Byfield wouldn't be the one they draft.

 

[JKG33]

I only say Byfield because I think the Rangers depth on wing is fine compared to center.

Stutzle is more of a center than Byfield is

 

[Neutrinos]

Lafreniere for Konecny (50% ret.)

That's the kind of deal I would expect to be made

Philly gamble on a young player with upside, while the win-now Rangers get a top 6 RW for a couple of seasons at a bargain price

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Lafreniere for Konecny (50% ret.)

That's the kind of deal I would expect to be made

Philly gamble on a young player with upside, while the win-now Rangers get a top 6 RW for a couple of seasons at a bargain price

Cheese and rice this is terrible for the flyers.

 

[SI90]

He just looks completely ordinary. Thought this was his time to really show he dhould
He given an opportunity and he hasn’t done anything this camp. Othman has been outplaying him by a wide margin and I’m not talking even the goal scoring. Lafreniere looks like he’s just going through the motions and unmotivated.

Rags aren’t going to get crazy value for him but maybe a team thinks they can get the best out of him and turn him around