Ticket/Attendance Discussion: The Sequel

[Mortimer Snerd]

Oh, these sweet summer children, what do they know about inflation? Inflation from the 1970s, when rates were above 8% for a decade. Inflation beaten down by the long night of interest rates, when mortgages were over 12% for years and children were born and lived and died, all in darkness...

Your numbers are a little bit off. Interest rates were pretty steady in the 8-10% range for a very long time before they took off in the late 70s, early 80s. I don't remember how long they took to get back down to that 8-10% range. It seemed like a long time to me but I was younger then, time moved more slowly. But rates prior to the last year or so were historically incredibly low. A 1.8% mortgage was like free money.

Funny thing, credit card interest was at 12% when mortgage rates were at 8.5%. They shot up in the late 70s and never really came back down.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Semantics. The bottom line is for most, luxury items like Jets tickets are no longer affordable. And simple math shows how minuscule pay raises alongside much higher inflation has significantly eroded buying power.

It is not semantics. It is massive overstatement.

Yes, buying power has not kept up. People who are carrying mortgages that they can't afford at normal interest rates and people who are being hard hit by rent increases are going to have to do some serious belt tightening.

I don't know whether most people would be hard hit or more lightly impacted like me. From what I see around me, it is not that bad. But even if it is much worse than what I see, it is still just a return to more normal inflation and interest rates.

 

[WpgSteve]

No one can find workers. Restaurants are packed. People are paying crazy money for new cars. I don't buy the poor economy narrative.

The Jets have been stuck in a cloud of negativity since 2018/2019. It's sad to see in comparison to the positivity and excitement of the team's return in 2011.

We need to get back to the excitement and pride of having a team we had recently. TNSE can do it. I believe in them.

 

[Jets4Life]

What might keep them in Winnipeg is the fact that the NHL wants expansion fees, not existing teams being sold privately. But in the end if they can't make money they're gone and I don't see how 11,000 fans a game could be enough.

Not having the Jets in Winnipeg made for long winters, but if we really analyse things, it did not hurt the city. By the early 90s, Winnipeg was not growing. In fact, the city actually lost people from 1995-97, and only gained roughly 15,000 people in the decade. I recall the overall mood of the city recovering by around 1999 when the Pan Am Games were held, and the ctiy built the new downtown ballpark.

Employment rose substantially during the 2000s, the one decade where we had no NHL team. The Moose were averaging 7500 fans, near the top of the league, we built the MTS Centre in 2004, and Glen Murray, for all his recent faults, was a good mayor, and did a great job in promoting our city between 1998-2004.

If WInnipeg loses the Jets, it would be devastating for many fans under the age of 30, but considering I had just become an adult when the original Jets left, the second time will not sting as much. We can still hold our heads up high, as say we sold out for 8 seasons in a row, and were at 100% capacity until COVID hit.

 

[Hobnobs]

It is not semantics. It is massive overstatement.

Yes, buying power has not kept up. People who are carrying mortgages that they can't afford at normal interest rates and people who are being hard hit by rent increases are going to have to do some serious belt tightening.

I don't know whether most people would be hard hit or more lightly impacted like me. From what I see around me, it is not that bad. But even if it is much worse than what I see, it is still just a return to more normal inflation and interest rates.

If you referenced actual data instead of "what you see", your arguments would be much stronger. Just sayin..

 

[The Blue Baron]

I am a 27 year Blue Bomber season ticket holder. I my honest opinion I enjoy football more than hockey. Game fatigue definitely plays a big factor here. There are just too many games while the on ice product has been diluted with talent. The NHL has to many teams and it is just become a bit of a joke really in that regard.
I am in the camp that TN just has done a crummy job treating the ST and package holders since about year 5-6 since they have returned. There are poor at not playing to there audience and being creative in game atmosphere Departmen.
I would be very curious to know what the Jets on TSN viewership numbers are like?
This issues are very complex to solve. Things were clearly on the decline already but the real turning point for me were those idiotic threatening adds that they were gonna leave again last year. This is the classic NOT playing to your audience.
Hopefully the corporate world steps up, which I think they will. Time will tell.
The Honeymoon is so long gone over the husband has 7 kids and is working on a bottle of Jack and a pack of Players once a day.

 

[The Blue Baron]

So much has changed since the mid 90’s, I doubt the team has s going anywhere.

1. The team owns it’s arena
2. Salary cap
3. Revenue sharing
4. Ownership has mega real estate properties in the same neighborhood (thus adding motivation to keep such a driver of downtown traffic).
5. Ownership has money
6. Ownership actually value the franchise and the city.

They own so much of the core downtown now. If they left those investments would be seriously hooped!!!

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Double whiskey and coke went up to $18.50 this year from $17.50 last year.

Year 1 in 2011 it was $10
Year 2 it was $13.50 …. In year 2 they hide this huge rate hike…. By saying that doubles were not offered anymore…. At the start of the season …… only to bring doubles back at a 35 % price hike in mid November.

My P3 seats were $94 per ticket in 2011…… in 2023 they are $140 per seat.

I was making $100,000 grand more per year in 2011 than I am now as I’m getting closer to retirement (5-10 years away)

In 2011 I could go out to 20 restaurants around the rink and get 3 beers and a meal (chicken fingers / burger and fries) for $30 ish dollars per person b4 the game….Now I can’t get 3 beers per person for $30.00 … ( I’ll go hungry)

B4 covid it was the norm for me to pay at least $150 - $200 in concessions and beverages inside the arena every game.

At last nights game …. My only concession purchase was a bottle of water and a slice of pizza which I paid $10.14 for after my season ticket discount was applied.

In the first 5 years I went to every game.

Now I split my seats with another person and only go to less than 1/2 of the games…

Only going to half of the games now… I called my season ticket rep b4 the season and tried to buy the single seat beside me for 10 of 20 of the games… that I’m allotted …. To have 3 tickets instead of 2 for those games…

I was told by my season ticket rep that single game seats were only available for the pre season games… that I should watch for when they become available for the regular season…

I told her I was busy and if she could make a note to contact me when I can purchase them and call me. I even have the list of the ten games I want to purchase ready now…

She said that she would…,

I never got a call …. I never bought the 10 tickets… the extra seat has been empty for all games so far…. 2 of which were on my list I wanted to purchase including the home opener.

As well if I would have taken that extra 3 rd seat for a client / friend….. it would have been more of a party / entertaining experience…… and my concession spending would have been in the $300 range.

Oh….. what are you going to do!

 

[bustamente]

Arena was 77% full last night, Buffalo was 68% full, San Jose was 71% full. Anaheim 83% full. Those teams haven't sold out consistently for years so we should be talking about relocating them to I guess.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If you referenced actual data instead of "what you see", your arguments would be much stronger. Just sayin..

The actual data is 3.8% inflation, 5-6% mortgage rates.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

I have tickets for 4 games this season, the first being against the Oilers on November 30th.

While at the game, I usually just get a hot chocolate and maybe a box of Timbits. I find everything else there to be ridiculously overpriced.

Yep.

I'm old enough to remember Jets 1.0 and you could sometimes get a nosebleed ticket for $6. Now, I'm paying what is it - $14 for a single Stella Artois? There are a lot of people that can't spend $14 on a beer. Just another money grab like everything else being sold in the arena.

 

[Heldig]

Yep.

I'm old enough to remember Jets 1.0 and you could sometimes get a nosebleed ticket for $6. Now, I'm paying what is it - $14 for a single Stella Artois? There are a lot of people that can't spend $14 on a beer. Just another money grab like everything else being sold in the arena.

I dont live near any big city where I can go to a game. Even if I did, I sure as heck would not consider paying some of the outlandish prices mentioned here.

$14 for Stella Artois? Thats a big No Effin Way.

 

[Cypruss]

September 2021 - 4.38%
September 2022 - 6.86%
September 2023 - 3.80%

Over three years, inflation is at 15.04% That is large. That is impactful on discretionary spending on luxury items such as a hockey game.

Add that to my previous post that 40 years ago when there were double digit mortgage rates, and how things are way worse now than then -

40 years ago, the average house cost was about 135% of your average annual salary
Today, the average house cost is about 450% of your average annual salary.

So your 20 year mortgage is about 23% of your monthly earnings now, compared to 7% of your monthly earnings then.

I understand everyone has different ways of looking at things and personal situations, but for me, things are much more difficult than they were before 2020, and most people I know, who have good jobs paying above average, are needing to make cuts everywhere.

If you don't have a mortgage any longer, great for you, and likely not feeling things as badly. Need more people like you to keep paying to goto the Jets games!!

Just how I see it

Its apples to oranges comparison. Or to put into hockey terms, its Appleton to Crosby comparison.

 

[pegcity]

When I looked on Ticketmaster yesterday, there were about 1000-2000 seats available (blue seats) for the Vegas game. However, they announced 11.5K. Can someone explain this to me? Are the luxury boxes empty? Is someone fudging the numbers? Any suggestions?

 

[Gm0ney]

There is a tremendous difference from this decades ago. Average house cost vs income. 40 years ago with high interest, there was almost no difference in income vs house price. Now look at it.

View attachment 755199

And yet home ownership rates continued to rise despite that widening gap. Sure you could buy a house in River Heights for $100,000 in 1985 but mortgage rates were 15%.

2011 was about the peak. Things have come back down a bit since then (e.g. Manitoba was at 70.1% in 2011 and fell to 67.4% - perhaps Jets season ticket prices are to blame? )

 

[None]

When I looked on Ticketmaster yesterday, there were about 1000-2000 seats available (blue seats) for the Vegas game. However, they announced 11.5K. Can someone explain this to me? Are the luxury boxes empty? Is someone fudging the numbers? Any suggestions?

Announced attendance must be the number of people actually in attendance and scanned at the entrance while Ticketmaster would only show resale through official channels + general availability. There were likely more tickets sold than actually showed up.

 

[fmrdh]

I don't understand all of this talk about the cap going WAY up... NHL fans are already struggling with affordability as it is, raising the cap will only further increase ticket and concession prices.

 

[complex]

When I looked on Ticketmaster yesterday, there were about 1000-2000 seats available (blue seats) for the Vegas game. However, they announced 11.5K. Can someone explain this to me? Are the luxury boxes empty? Is someone fudging the numbers? Any suggestions?

Ticketmaster is likely not showing all the available seats. They show a smaller portion of the seats in each available section to possibly induce a purchase. If they showed everything available, it would be obvious that there is no urgency for you to buy.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

Went to the game last night on a free ticket because someone was not able to go.

With parking, 2 burgers and 2 fries, 2 beers and a sprite, I spent just over $100.

If I had paid for both tickets 200 section, my night would have been over $400.

I could afford that maybe 3 to 4 times a year and I do not have any children to support.

The model has to change.

Cheaper tickets, cheaper concessions to fill the arenas and generate revenue. Charge the person sitting at home enjoying the game on a 70 inch TV; and add features that warrant the cost, like personal views, VR views, added content and features.

 

[pegcity]

We can blame the cost of the game all we want, but it's clear that the corporate community is to blame. If we had the next closes Canadian fan bases corporate season ticket rate, we'd still be selling out every game.

 

[White Out 902]

When I went to the game, I had to pay $5.50 for a bottle of Dasani water. Absolutely disgusting. Nickel and dime every f***ing turn. If they want to charge you an arm and a leg for tickets at least make the concessions a reasonable price

 

[Royale With Cheese]

Went to the game last night on a free ticket because someone was not able to go.

With parking, 2 burgers and 2 fries, 2 beers and a sprite, I spent just over $100.

If I had paid for both tickets 200 section, my night would have been over $400.

I could afford that maybe 3 to 4 times a year and I do not have any children to support.

The model has to change.

Cheaper tickets, cheaper concessions to fill the arenas and generate revenue. Charge the person sitting at home enjoying the game on a 70 inch TV; and add features that warrant the cost, like personal views, VR views, added content and features.

$400 for a night out for lets say 20 games = $8,000. That's a a year's worth of mortgage payments (excluding property taxes) for some.

When the other option is to sit at home and watch and save the $8,000, it is clear that folks who used to prioritize live Jets games and are not wealthy will face a fairly easy decision.

When I went to the game, I had to pay $5.50 for a bottle of Dasani water. Absolutely disgusting. Nickel and dime every f***ing turn. If they want to charge you an arm relief for tickets at least make the concessions a reasonable price

Agree. These prices should be DROPPING, starting next game.

 

[None]

I don't understand all of this talk about the cap going WAY up... NHL fans are already struggling with affordability as it is, raising the cap will only further increase ticket and concession prices.

The cap is tied to hockey related revenue. Revenue goes up -> Cap goes up.

Players are guaranteed 50% of hockey related revenue as part of their collective bargaining agreement so as those revenues increase so does the cap. The cap is going up from its current 83.5 million because the 83.5 million was calculated before the latest American TV contract.
The players have owed the owners money over the last handful of seasons because they were paid more than 50% of hockey related revenue during COVID restricted seasons. Now that the debt has been paid through increased revenue the cap will go up to match 50% of hockey related revenue again.

There's only so much control a single team has over hockey related revenue but when revenues are high (ie. when the Leafs and Rangers are doing well) it also means revenue sharing is high.

 

[Gm0ney]

Your numbers are a little bit off. Interest rates were pretty steady in the 8-10% range for a very long time before they took off in the late 70s, early 80s. I don't remember how long they took to get back down to that 8-10% range. It seemed like a long time to me but I was younger then, time moved more slowly. But rates prior to the last year or so were historically incredibly low. A 1.8% mortgage was like free money.

Funny thing, credit card interest was at 12% when mortgage rates were at 8.5%. They shot up in the late 70s and never really came back down.

You've mixed up inflation rate with mortgage interest rates. In the 70s the inflation rate was consistently over 8%. For 10 years, from 1973 to 1982, Canada's annual inflation rate averaged 9.62%. And for 9 more years after that (83-91) inflation was running just under 5% annually. Everything nearly quadrupled in price in 19 years between 1973 and 1991.

Mortgage rates were also pretty high over that entire period but they really took off in the early 80s when central banks jacked rates to wrestle inflation down.

Mortgage rates are still low compared to the 70s and 80s and even the 90s (although I recall when mortgage rates dropped into the single digits in the early 90s - like 9% or something - and everyone was saying "we should buy a house!"). For 20 years in the 70s and 80s, 5-year mortgage rates averaged >12%.

The problem is that housing prices kind of rise in lockstep with payments. This chart shows that in Canada, the mortgage payment to median income ratio fluctuates between 30% and 50% with occasional spikes when interest rates suddenly rise. Certain markets (Toronto, Vancouver) are far worse. Winnipeg's not on here but probably compares closely with Montreal.

 

[tbcwpg]

I don't understand all of this talk about the cap going WAY up... NHL fans are already struggling with affordability as it is, raising the cap will only further increase ticket and concession prices.

The cap increase is because the escrow the players had to pay into with the last CBA is over - it related to getting the revenues to the 50/50 split. Now that difference is paid off, the cap is set to increase.

I'm not sure concession prices factor into the cap calculation.