The Truth about Phil Kessel

[alexanderselivanov*]

Don't be dramatic. He is not going to maintain or increase his point totals in a leagu7e where scoring is declining and his game is more easily shut down. I don't care what point totals he put up in the past, we're talking about what he'll do in the next few years.

He will still be a consistent producer. But those numbers will probably be about 5-15 points lower in the next three years versus the past three years. If that's unreasonable to you, refute it intelligently rather than attempting to deny the credibility of a well laid out argument with nonsense.

I do not believe Kessel is a consistent 80 point guy any more in this league going forward. I do believe he is a consistent 65 point guy in this league going forward.

Kessel would be a consistent 80 pt guy if he actually drove the net instead of pouting after another failed scoring attempt down the wing.

 

[The Thin White Duke]

Don't be dramatic. He is not going to maintain or increase his point totals in a leagu7e where scoring is declining and his game is more easily shut down. I don't care what point totals he put up in the past, we're talking about what he'll do in the next few years.

He will still be a consistent producer. But those numbers will probably be about 5-15 points lower in the next three years versus the past three years. If that's unreasonable to you, refute it intelligently rather than attempting to deny the credibility of a well laid out argument with nonsense.

I do not believe Kessel is a consistent 80 point guy any more in this league going forward. I do believe he is a consistent 65 point guy in this league going forward.

What has changed so drastically since last season? Enough to reduce his scoring by 20%? The teams are the same, the players are the same, the coaches are the same. This year scoring was down because many top players had injury problems. Ovechkin still put up his 50+ goals, Crosby still put up well over PPG, guys like Benn and Voracek put up career highs.

I see no reason Kessel can't maintain his 13/14 level of production if he has similar level teammates as he did that year, let alone if he gets moves to a team with a legitimate #1 center and defenseman.

He was on pace for another PPG year halfway through this season, are you trying to tell me the league got 20% harder to score in over those last 40 games?

 

[Maplebeasts]

Kessel would be a consistent 80 pt guy if he actually drove the net instead of pouting after another failed scoring attempt down the wing.

Just stop. Please.

 

[MikeBabchuk]

What has changes so drastically since last season? Enough to reduce his scoring by 20%? The teams are the same, the players are the same, the coaches are the same. This year scoring was down because many top players had injury problems. Ovechkin still put up his 50+ goals, Crosby still put up well over PPG, guys like Benn and Voracek put up career highs.

I see no reason Kessel can't maintain his 13/14 level of production if he has similar level teammates as he did that year, let alone if he gets moves to a team with a legitimate #1 center and defenseman.

He was on pace for another PPG year halfway through this season, are you trying to tell me the leave got 20% harder to score in over those last 40 games?

Powerplay scoring will continue to decline a bit more next season, as per recent trends. Save percentage will probably rise another point or two, as per recent trends. A little bit more will go uncalled by officials. Obviously these things happen and have been happening incrementally. So next year I could totally see Kessel take only a 5 point hit or so from his average, and another 5-10 points over the next two seasons, if the current trends continue, plus he will be 30+ and who knows if he might begin to decline.

I think it would be optimistic to pencil him in for 70 points next season. Now, sure, if he goes to a team where he gets to play with a Tavares or a Crosby and they develop chemistry, he could push 80, keeping in mind that 85 points could very well win the Art Ross next season.

 

[The Thin White Duke]

Powerplay scoring will continue to decline a bit more next season, as per recent trends. Save percentage will probably rise another point or two, as per recent trends. A little bit more will go uncalled by officials. Obviously these things happen and have been happening incrementally. So next year I could totally see Kessel take only a 5 point hit or so from his average, and another 5-10 points over the next two seasons, if the current trends continue, plus he will be 30+ and who knows if he might begin to decline.

I think it would be optimistic to pencil him in for 70 points next season. Now, sure, if he goes to a team where he gets to play with a Tavares or a Crosby and they develop chemistry, he could push 80, keeping in mind that 85 points could very well win the Art Ross next season.

I don't want to deal with the power play/save percentage points until I can look at some numbers for who they're affecting as I suspect its 2nd power play units and 3rd/4th lines contributing most to those climbs. Just from what I've seen on the Leafs, our 2nd PP unit is hot garbage but gets harmless shots on net regularly, same with our 3rd "scoring line".

I'll give you the age point but he hasn't shown any sign of it weakening his game yet. Theres no nagging chronic injuries to worsen his shot or burst speed.

As for the last point, he doesn't need a Tavares or Crosby. Backes, Staal, Plekanec caliber 1b/2a centers would be enough to bring his totals significantly up. A strong possession system with defensive support would do the same. Being on the second line the way Kane is used would do wonders. He's quite honestly in one of the worst situations he can possibly be in in Toronto. I can't really think of worse teammates and systems for him other than maybe Arizona and New Jersey.

Edit: Even if we assume you're right, if league numbers are affected so heavily, his 65 points will still be like putting up a PPG season relative to other top scorers. I guess it makes more sense to expect him to be a top-15 scorer than to expect a specific amount of points.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Kessel doesn't battle as hard in the regular season his body should hold well allowing him to be productive till his mid 30's.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Yeah I've heard this argument before too. "Kane carries a line of scrubs!"

Except most people fail to include some important context. You know, like getting matched against team's 3rd/4th lines with 60-70% offensive zone starts. I've watched the Hawks a lot myself, Kruger and Toews take the hard match-ups and do the heavy lifting in the defensive zone while Kane gets extremely favorable match-ups. Not to take away from Kane though, he obviously makes very good use of what he's given and is an incredible player either way.

Do you think Kessel has ever had this luxury in Toronto? **** no. He plays with a mediocre #3C and Lupul/JVR vs team's top defensive units night in and night out, and always ends up starting more shifts in the defensive zone.

Be honest. How many GM'S do you think would take Phil Kessel on their team over Patrick Kane?

 

[Rebuilt]

What has changed so drastically since last season? Enough to reduce his scoring by 20%? The teams are the same, the players are the same, the coaches are the same. This year scoring was down because many top players had injury problems. Ovechkin still put up his 50+ goals, Crosby still put up well over PPG, guys like Benn and Voracek put up career highs.

I see no reason Kessel can't maintain his 13/14 level of production if he has similar level teammates as he did that year, let alone if he gets moves to a team with a legitimate #1 center and defenseman.

He was on pace for another PPG year halfway through this season, are you trying to tell me the league got 20% harder to score in over those last 40 games?

Why does he need some awesome center man and defenseman to be good? Why cant he be good on his own? He makes 8 mil a year. Besides, he has good chemistry with Bozak. The Leafs should just keep him. For another year or two until he has no trade value at all, lol.

 

[Rebuilt]

Be honest. How many GM'S do you think would take Phil Kessel on their team over Patrick Kane?

Zero.

How many take Kessel over a slightly less productive yet younger player on a good contract?
zero.

 

[The Thin White Duke]

Why does he need some awesome center man and defenseman to be good? Why cant he be good on his own? He makes 8 mil a year. Besides, he has good chemistry with Bozak. The Leafs should just keep him. For another year or two until he has no trade value at all, lol.

Name me literally any single top scorer with worse linemates. Just one that's all I want.

Hell just name one winger that would put up significantly more points with Bozak JVR Phaneuf and Polak/scrub of the week.

Is it so ridiculous to suggest a player would look better with league average linemates? Just a borderline 1C like Plekanec would be fine.

 

[WesMcCauley]

say what u want about him but i dont want him on my team... He doesnt bring enough for the salary he makes imo...

 

[WarriorofTime]

Name me literally any single top scorer with worse linemates. Just one that's all I want.

Hell just name one winger that would put up significantly more points with Bozak JVR Phaneuf and Polak/scrub of the week.

Is it so ridiculous to suggest a player would look better with league average linemates? Just a borderline 1C like Plekanec would be fine.

Patrick Kane

Evgeni Malkin

 

[The Thin White Duke]

Patrick Kane

Evgeni Malkin

Lmao yes having Letang/Crosby/Towes/Keith/Hossa on the PP and at times on even strength is exactly like Bozak and Phaneuf you're right. And facing secondary shutdown units is exactly like taking on the best he other team has to offer every single game.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Patrick Kane

Evgeni Malkin

Brandon Saad on his line before he moved up. I'd say tied with Kessel

Malkin for sure however.

 

[MikeBabchuk]

I don't want to deal with the power play/save percentage points until I can look at some numbers for who they're affecting as I suspect its 2nd power play units and 3rd/4th lines contributing most to those climbs. Just from what I've seen on the Leafs, our 2nd PP unit is hot garbage but gets harmless shots on net regularly, same with our 3rd "scoring line".

I'll give you the age point but he hasn't shown any sign of it weakening his game yet. Theres no nagging chronic injuries to worsen his shot or burst speed.

As for the last point, he doesn't need a Tavares or Crosby. Backes, Staal, Plekanec caliber 1b/2a centers would be enough to bring his totals significantly up. A strong possession system with defensive support would do the same. Being on the second line the way Kane is used would do wonders. He's quite honestly in one of the worst situations he can possibly be in in Toronto. I can't really think of worse teammates and systems for him other than maybe Arizona and New Jersey.

Edit: Even if we assume you're right, if league numbers are affected so heavily, his 65 points will still be like putting up a PPG season relative to other top scorers. I guess it makes more sense to expect him to be a top-15 scorer than to expect a specific amount of points.

Well regardless of exact numbers, I'm just throwing X amount of points out there for the sake of argument. The point is, yes, perhaps his place in the scoring race is more relevant than amount of points. Sure. I don't want to sound too dramatic about the decline in scoring, since it is, as I mentioned, an incremental thing. That said, we can't ignore the trends.

If Kessel finishes in the top 25 in scoring next year with 65 points, well so be it. I'm not slagging off Kessel as much as pointing out that people need to look at the trends and the way teams are defending against Kessel. He is too dangerous a player to fall off the map, but 80 points 5 years ago is not 80 points now.

 

[Neutral Hockey Fan]

Be honest. How many GM'S do you think would take Phil Kessel on their team over Patrick Kane?

Kessel @ 8 or Kane @ 11???

Probably more than half prefer Kessel

 

[mattcookefan]

this is ridiculous. kessel isnt as good as malkin, so hes trash? kessel would make any team in the nhl better and doesnt deserve the hate he gets from everybody

 

[WarriorofTime]

Lmao yes having Letang/Crosby/Towes/Keith/Hossa on the PP and at times on even strength is exactly like Bozak and Phaneuf you're right. And facing secondary shutdown units is exactly like taking on the best he other team has to offer every single game.

The Hawks power play is a train wreck.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Kessel @ 8 or Kane @ 11???

Probably more than half prefer Kessel

Hey its only 10.5. And Kane will be getting paid more next season cuz he earned it.

 

[FerrisRox]

And if Crabb and Bozak made up 2/3 of our top line, imagine how bad lines 2-4 were. Kessel was the sole offensive threat on those teams, there's no one else to bother sending your shutdown unit against.

You realize that Phil Kessel didn't even have the best point-per-game pace on the team that season, right?

You look kind of silly saying Phil Kessel was the only offensive threat when Joffrey Lupul, with 67 points in 66 games, produced at a better clip than Phil did.

It's amazing how desperate some Leaf fans are to make every excuse possible for Kessel.

The fans that keep parroting the Kane/Kessel comparison is embarrassing.

They keep regurgitating the same nonsense. To try and pretend that Kane and Kessel are equally inept defensively is essentially announcing that you don't really follow hockey. Several Leaf fans have said if they flipped teams, people would be slagging Kane and praising Kessel. Except Kessel would, of course, barely get any ice time under Joel Quenville, who wouldn't allow a player to simply not play defense and Kane wouldn't get slagged in Toronto because while he's no Selke candidate, he actually tries and hustles in all three zones and takes hits to make plays, etc.

Kane would be hailed as a God in Toronto and if the Leafs had a player as good as him there would be endless threads about him being the best player in the league.

Call a spade a spade. He's an excellent offensive player but a horrible defensive player and you can't win with a first line player that hurts more than he helps. Stop pretending it's the coaches fault or the linemates fault or the situation the teams in. It's Phil's fault.

He is what he is. That's all.

 

[The Thin White Duke]

The Hawks power play is a train wreck.

I'm not going to bother entertaining any argument that a guy who has 5 Olympians on his team has a worse supporting cast than the 4th worst Maple Leafs. Even if he was centered by someone worse than Bozak, having Keith/Seabrook/Hjalmarsson behind you while you face 2nd pairings is more than enough to trump Bozak/JVR/Phaneuf combined.

 

[WarriorofTime]

You realize that Phil Kessel didn't even have the best point-per-game pace on the team that season, right?

You look kind of silly saying Phil Kessel was the only offensive threat when Joffrey Lupul, with 67 points in 66 games, produced at a better clip than Phil did.

It's amazing how desperate some Leaf fans are to make every excuse possible for Kessel.

The fans that keep parroting the Kane/Kessel comparison is embarrassing.

They keep regurgitating the same nonsense. To try and pretend that Kane and Kessel are equally inept defensively is essentially announcing that you don't really follow hockey. Several Leaf fans have said if they flipped teams, people would be slagging Kane and praising Kessel. Except Kessel would, of course, barely get any ice time under Joel Quenville, who wouldn't allow a player to simply not play defense and Kane wouldn't get slagged in Toronto because while he's no Selke candidate, he actually tries and hustles in all three zones and takes hits to make plays, etc.

Kane would be hailed as a God in Toronto and if the Leafs had a player as good as him there would be endless threads about him being the best player in the league.

Call a spade a spade. He's an excellent offensive player but a horrible defensive player and you can't win with a first line player that hurts more than he helps. Stop pretending it's the coaches fault or the linemates fault or the situation the teams in. It's Phil's fault.

He is what he is. That's all.

I think Kane is a clear step ahead of Kessel. Phil is more in the tier with players like Thomas Vanek, Max Pacioretty, and Jeff Carter.

 

[FerrisRox]

Kessel was so far out of prime and relatively undeveloped that this doesn't concern me much.

Yes, he was so far out of his prime in Boston. With the Bruins, he was just a 36-goal scorer, but with the Leafs, he entered his prime and blossomed into a 37-goal scorer.

 

[Neutral Hockey Fan]

Hey its only 10.5. And Kane will be getting paid more next season cuz he earned it.

By putting up WORSE numbers, with better line mates and a pp that includes Toews/Keith/Hossa/Saad/Sharp/Seabrook?

Or by being even with Kessel in the defensive end?

Or by getting almost 70% of his zone starts in the offensive end?

If he "earned" it, Kessel at 8 is underpaid

 

[WarriorofTime]

Yes, he was so far out of his prime in Boston. With the Bruins, he was just a 36-goal scorer, but with the Leafs, he entered his prime and blossomed into a 37-goal scorer.

Plus that's where the whole "kessel is a PPG player in the playoffs!" thing comes from.

Kessel is a talented player but I rally think Leafs fans overrate him. Wouldnt shock me if there's a much shorter list of suitors for this guy than some people believe. He basically has to go to the perfect type of situation.