The Truth about Phil Kessel

[WarriorofTime]

Kessel was in on 30% of Toronto's goals this year (61/206)
Kessel was in on 36% of Toronto's goals last year (80/222)
Kessel was in on 36% of Toronto's goals in 12/13 (52/145)
Kessel was in on 36% of Toronto's goals in 11/12 (82/227)

This year there were 4 players who scored 30! or more points, including Kessel
Last year there were 9 players who scored 30 or more points, including Kessel
In 12/13 there were 10 (if my math is correct) players who were on pace for 30 or more points, including 3 (yes, one less than this year) who scored over 30, including Kessel
In 11/12 there were 8 players who scored 30 or more points, including Kessel

It's almost like... playing with better players will increase your point totals and playing on one of the worst teams in your teams history will decrease it...

Your stats show the Leafs scored 16 fewer goals and Kessel had 19 fewer points.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Your stats show the Leafs scored 16 fewer goals and Kessel had 19 fewer points.

Right... and that is most likely due to the team around Kessel. Kessel himself had a bad year but had absolutely no insulation. Here are Kane's numbers:

Kane was in on 29% of Chicago's goals this year (64/220)
Kane was in on 26% of Chicago's goals last year (69/261)
Kane was in on 37% of Chicago's goals in 12/13 (55/149)
Kane was in on 27% of Chicago's goals in 11/12 (66/241)

This year there were 9 players who scored 30 or more points, including Kane. 6 above 40 and 4 above 50.
Last year there were 9 players who scored 30 or more points, including Kane. 7 above 40 and 5 above 60!
In 12/13 there were 10 (if my math is correct) players who were on pace for 30 or more points.
In 11/12 there were 9 players who scored 30 or more points, including Kane. 6 over 40 and 4 over 50.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Right... and that is most likely due to the team around Kessel. Kessel himself had a bad year but had absolutely no insulation. Here are Kane's numbers:

Kane was in on 29% of Chicago's goals this year (64/220)
Kane was in on 26% of Chicago's goals last year (69/261)
Kane was in on 37% of Chicago's goals in 12/13 (55/149)
Kane was in on 27% of Chicago's goals in 11/12 (66/241)

This year there were 9 players who scored 30 or more points, including Kane. 6 above 40 and 4 above 50.
Last year there were 9 players who scored 30 or more points, including Kane. 7 above 40 and 5 above 60!
In 12/13 there were 10 (if my math is correct) players who were on pace for 30 or more points.
In 11/12 there were 9 players who scored 30 or more points, including Kane. 6 over 40 and 4 over 50.

Kane's missed some time though. It's actually really impressive Kane was in on basically the same percentage of goals as Kessel missing a substantial amount of time on a better team.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

I don't think anyone really knows the truth about Kessel.

A really polarizing player. Even fans of him probably aren't sure they want him on their team vs. the assets he could possibly bring back.

He's entertaining though no doubt. Both on and off the ice the guy is fascinating because he's different and has a personality.

If he's traded I'll still follow him and wish him the best. I certainly don't have any hate for the guy in fact the opposite, there's something very endearing about him and everything that surrounds him and his personality.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Kane's missed some time though. It's actually really impressive Kane was in on basically the same percentage of goals as Kessel missing a substantial amount of time on a better team.

I wouldn't consider 10% "basically the same". It's actually less impressive that with Chicago scoring so many more goals and Kane facing lesser competition than Kessel that he routinely scores less than Kessel and scores a lesser percentage than him

 

[WarriorofTime]

29 % vs. 30 %?

Kane is the more impressive player no question.

 

[Muston Atthews]

29 % vs. 30 %?

Kane is the more impressive player no question.

4th worst team vs a team in the Stanley Cup Final hm... wonder if that makes any difference

 

[WarriorofTime]

4th worst team vs a team in the Stanley Cup Final hm... wonder if that makes any difference

Its easier to put up a higher % of your teams points on a bad team.

 

[HarrisonFord]

And there lies the rub. But you were honest enough to mention it.

You're a good poster and I appreciate our see/saw battles...

In this case though, this is the entire population sample size, rather than a small sample size of a larger population sample (i.e. last 20 games of an 82 game season) so I give that more weight.

You too good sir, always nice to have a good debate with someone who knows what they're talking about (even if we disagree on things)

Its easier to put up a higher % of your teams points on a bad team.

Sure, but it's harder to put up higher point totals overall, and Kessel's point totals have been among the tops of the league.

 

[CellarDweller0]

Kane's missed some time though. It's actually really impressive Kane was in on basically the same percentage of goals as Kessel missing a substantial amount of time on a better team.

I'm not convinced your point makes any sense. This is a # based on % not totals so it is safe to assume that barring any potential production spike or valley in the games that Kane missed the % #'s would actually be sustained.

 

[CellarDweller0]

Its easier to put up a higher % of your teams points on a bad team.

Again, % #'s and total #'s are not equal, calculated the same way, or tell the same story. Not sure how many different ways I can explain it.

For example, for percentages if the Hawks as a team are scoring more or less it doesn't matter, what matters is how often Kane is involved in that scoring.

 

[NiL8r87]

If I were either one of those teams I would have kept them both. Hard to find someone like Vanek. Yandle would have been a good mentor to the younger kids.

As for NJ. You barked up the wrong tree. I am one of those people who thought it was a mistake to trade our 9th pick away for Schneider. We would have been sure to draft either Eichel or Mcdavid if that trade didn't happen. Marty would have retired a Devil. That 9th pick would have been a Center or RW that we desperately needed.

There's a reason why those in management who are smarter than you or I made the decision (and frequently make the decision) to trade their best assets during a rebuild.

 

[Evileye]

I tend to judge players not on what his devotional fans are saying about him. Its what they are NOT saying about him. Not one single part of any post on here from his defenders mentions a fairly major part of any players trade value.

His age and his contract.

He is 28 years old and due to be paid 8 million dollars for 7 long years. Did I mention EIGHT million? No star players are better at 34 than they were at 28 . Few are better at 30 than they were at 28.

After he gets paid his signing bonus this summer he will be getting paid $50M over the next 7 years, so $7.14/year average.
So a trade later in the summer would look a little better financially, but cap hit is still 8M.

 

[Devourers]

Say what you want about him, he's going to bounce back and I'd kill to get him on my team while his value is slightly lower. It isn't his fault he's a winger expected to carry his team and the defensive aspect of his game is far overblown, he's now Toews but he's a winger, if he had a proper centerman with him he'd look a lot better.

Expecting Kessel to be solid at both ends given the style of play he has is just silly. He isn't even as bad as JVR is defensively either and that's a guy with the size and build to play a more complete game. I find it funny people want to blame him when he shouldn't be expected to be back checking so much as his center should be.

Am I saying he should just skate to the bench and avoid trying to break up a 2 on 1 if he's within range to do so? Of course not, but he doesn't do that either. His work ethic and defensive game are so overblown on HF and in the media. You don't acquire/sign Phil Kessel to play that type of game, the blame for that is right on the management who failed to insulate the type of player he is. Put him with Toews and he'll look extremely good out there. There's just far too much pressure on him to be the guy who does everything on that team. It isn't his fault the leafs are a poorly built team that rely on offense greatly while not having a well built defense to make up for his shortcomings.

When you build a team around certain guys you have to have the guys on the back end and up front to support them. If he played in front of a guy like Lunquvist with the back end that the rangers have he'd look much better and people would be considering him one of the top players in the league, but because he had one bad season on a team where nobody showed up in the second half he has to shoulder the blame.

What about Dion Phaneuf, you know that guy who albeit an offensive d-man is actually expected to play some defense? When you have guys like that on the back end who you can't trust it makes it much harder to take risks at the other end of the ice, hence IMO why his production fell. To top it all off they put in a coach who was basically a cancer to the team in terms of productivity and winning. Carlyle wasn't the problem in Toronto, the problem was Dave Nonis and Brian Burke building a team that didn't even make sense on paper let alone on the ice. With the exception of Morgan Rielly and a few lower pairing guys nobody on that back end is dependable game in and game out. Goaltending while Bernier and Reimer have had stretches where they were great goalies, have also been tough to depend on in other stretches, again more than likely due to the poorly assembled defense in front of them.

It isn't Phil Kessel's fault that he plays for a team that is so poorly put together, who then fires the only coach who got them into a playoff spot in a decade just because of one tough stretch and replaces him with a completely inept coach with zero experience. It's the managements fault for all of that. People never stop to think maybe the reason Phil wasn't so productive in the latter half of the year isn't because of Phil but because of all the reasons I just listed and maybe just maybe having little confidence in his teams defensive game stopped him from taking as many risks which would normally lead to goals.

When you're the focal point of everything that's going wrong with your team you're going to try your best to stop taking risks that lead to goals in the back of your net, even if you aren't cut out to play that type of risk free game. It's a shame because he's a solid player and the leafs acquired him at the wrong time with the wrong supporting cast and now Phil gets to eat all the ******** the media and fans are throwing. I actually feel pretty bad for the guy.

 

[Purity*]

Kane ay least tries in all zones.

Benn, yes. He is a product of Seguin. His point totals jumped by 25 when Seguin arrived

Oh really.

I 100% guarantee that Kane would get eaten alive by the media the same way Kessel does if he played in Toronto.

Toews, Hossa, Keith, Seabrook? Hell no, if he went from playing with that to playing with Bozak, Lupul/JVR, Phaneuf, Franson he gets nowhere near the praise he gets today. Kane is an incredible player who's most certainly a catalyst for the Hawks success but it would be an entirely different picture if he played for the Leafs.

And Benn being a "product" of Seguin is an extremely subjective statement. Benn stepped up his game immensely when Seguin went out.

 

[Purity*]

Say what you want about him, he's going to bounce back and I'd kill to get him on my team while his value is slightly lower. It isn't his fault he's a winger expected to carry his team and the defensive aspect of his game is far overblown, he's now Toews but he's a winger, if he had a proper centerman with him he'd look a lot better.

Expecting Kessel to be solid at both ends given the style of play he has is just silly. He isn't even as bad as JVR is defensively either and that's a guy with the size and build to play a more complete game. I find it funny people want to blame him when he shouldn't be expected to be back checking so much as his center should be.

Am I saying he should just skate to the bench and avoid trying to break up a 2 on 1 if he's within range to do so? Of course not, but he doesn't do that either. His work ethic and defensive game are so overblown on HF and in the media. You don't acquire/sign Phil Kessel to play that type of game, the blame for that is right on the management who failed to insulate the type of player he is. Put him with Toews and he'll look extremely good out there. There's just far too much pressure on him to be the guy who does everything on that team. It isn't his fault the leafs are a poorly built team that rely on offense greatly while not having a well built defense to make up for his shortcomings.

When you build a team around certain guys you have to have the guys on the back end and up front to support them. If he played in front of a guy like Lunquvist with the back end that the rangers have he'd look much better and people would be considering him one of the top players in the league, but because he had one bad season on a team where nobody showed up in the second half he has to shoulder the blame.

What about Dion Phaneuf, you know that guy who albeit an offensive d-man is actually expected to play some defense? When you have guys like that on the back end who you can't trust it makes it much harder to take risks at the other end of the ice, hence IMO why his production fell. To top it all off they put in a coach who was basically a cancer to the team in terms of productivity and winning. Carlyle wasn't the problem in Toronto, the problem was Dave Nonis and Brian Burke building a team that didn't even make sense on paper let alone on the ice. With the exception of Morgan Rielly and a few lower pairing guys nobody on that back end is dependable game in and game out. Goaltending while Bernier and Reimer have had stretches where they were great goalies, have also been tough to depend on in other stretches, again more than likely due to the poorly assembled defense in front of them.

It isn't Phil Kessel's fault that he plays for a team that is so poorly put together, who then fires the only coach who got them into a playoff spot in a decade just because of one tough stretch and replaces him with a completely inept coach with zero experience. It's the managements fault for all of that. People never stop to think maybe the reason Phil wasn't so productive in the latter half of the year isn't because of Phil but because of all the reasons I just listed and maybe just maybe having little confidence in his teams defensive game stopped him from taking as many risks which would normally lead to goals.

When you're the focal point of everything that's going wrong with your team you're going to try your best to stop taking risks that lead to goals in the back of your net, even if you aren't cut out to play that type of risk free game. It's a shame because he's a solid player and the leafs acquired him at the wrong time with the wrong supporting cast and now Phil gets to eat all the ******** the media and fans are throwing. I actually feel pretty bad for the guy.

 

[castle]

I'm not convinced your point makes any sense. This is a # based on % not totals so it is safe to assume that barring any potential production spike or valley in the games that Kane missed the % #'s would actually be sustained.

False. A player could be involved in 100% of his team's goals when he's there, but only play 25% of the games. Obviously that missed time will affect that overall numbers you are referring to.

 

[alexanderselivanov*]

Say what you want about him, he's going to bounce back and I'd kill to get him on my team while his value is slightly lower. It isn't his fault he's a winger expected to carry his team and the defensive aspect of his game is far overblown, he's now Toews but he's a winger, if he had a proper centerman with him he'd look a lot better.

Expecting Kessel to be solid at both ends given the style of play he has is just silly. He isn't even as bad as JVR is defensively either and that's a guy with the size and build to play a more complete game. I find it funny people want to blame him when he shouldn't be expected to be back checking so much as his center should be.

Am I saying he should just skate to the bench and avoid trying to break up a 2 on 1 if he's within range to do so? Of course not, but he doesn't do that either. His work ethic and defensive game are so overblown on HF and in the media. You don't acquire/sign Phil Kessel to play that type of game, the blame for that is right on the management who failed to insulate the type of player he is. Put him with Toews and he'll look extremely good out there. There's just far too much pressure on him to be the guy who does everything on that team. It isn't his fault the leafs are a poorly built team that rely on offense greatly while not having a well built defense to make up for his shortcomings.

When you build a team around certain guys you have to have the guys on the back end and up front to support them. If he played in front of a guy like Lunquvist with the back end that the rangers have he'd look much better and people would be considering him one of the top players in the league, but because he had one bad season on a team where nobody showed up in the second half he has to shoulder the blame.

What about Dion Phaneuf, you know that guy who albeit an offensive d-man is actually expected to play some defense? When you have guys like that on the back end who you can't trust it makes it much harder to take risks at the other end of the ice, hence IMO why his production fell. To top it all off they put in a coach who was basically a cancer to the team in terms of productivity and winning. Carlyle wasn't the problem in Toronto, the problem was Dave Nonis and Brian Burke building a team that didn't even make sense on paper let alone on the ice. With the exception of Morgan Rielly and a few lower pairing guys nobody on that back end is dependable game in and game out. Goaltending while Bernier and Reimer have had stretches where they were great goalies, have also been tough to depend on in other stretches, again more than likely due to the poorly assembled defense in front of them.

It isn't Phil Kessel's fault that he plays for a team that is so poorly put together, who then fires the only coach who got them into a playoff spot in a decade just because of one tough stretch and replaces him with a completely inept coach with zero experience. It's the managements fault for all of that. People never stop to think maybe the reason Phil wasn't so productive in the latter half of the year isn't because of Phil but because of all the reasons I just listed and maybe just maybe having little confidence in his teams defensive game stopped him from taking as many risks which would normally lead to goals.

When you're the focal point of everything that's going wrong with your team you're going to try your best to stop taking risks that lead to goals in the back of your net, even if you aren't cut out to play that type of risk free game. It's a shame because he's a solid player and the leafs acquired him at the wrong time with the wrong supporting cast and now Phil gets to eat all the ******** the media and fans are throwing. I actually feel pretty bad for the guy.

You're a habs fan you wouldn't know. Phil Kessel doesn't improve a team in anyway. He'll score 2 goals but then be on the ice for 4 for more. He has single handedly cost the team games as much as he has won them.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Oh really.

I 100% guarantee that Kane would get eaten alive by the media the same way Kessel does if he played in Toronto.

Toews, Hossa, Keith, Seabrook? Hell no, if he went from playing with that to playing with Bozak, Lupul/JVR, Phaneuf, Franson he gets nowhere near the praise he gets today. Kane is an incredible player who's most certainly a catalyst for the Hawks success but it would be an entirely different picture if he played for the Leafs.

And Benn being a "product" of Seguin is an extremely subjective statement. Benn stepped up his game immensely when Seguin went out.

Ah yes, the famed Kane-Toews-Hossa line.

 

[Purity*]

Ah yes, the famed Kane-Toews-Hossa line.

Yeah I've heard this argument before too. "Kane carries a line of scrubs!"

Except most people fail to include some important context. You know, like getting matched against team's 3rd/4th lines with 60-70% offensive zone starts. I've watched the Hawks a lot myself, Kruger and Toews take the hard match-ups and do the heavy lifting in the defensive zone while Kane gets extremely favorable match-ups. Not to take away from Kane though, he obviously makes very good use of what he's given and is an incredible player either way.

Do you think Kessel has ever had this luxury in Toronto? **** no. He plays with a mediocre #3C and Lupul/JVR vs team's top defensive units night in and night out, and always ends up starting more shifts in the defensive zone.

 

[castle]

Again, % #'s and total #'s are not equal, calculated the same way, or tell the same story. Not sure how many different ways I can explain it.

For example, for percentages if the Hawks as a team are scoring more or less it doesn't matter, what matters is how often Kane is involved in that scoring.

bad logic perhaps? of course it is easier to score a higher percentage of your team's points on a bad team than on a good/deep team.
1) other players don't score
2) you probably get more ice time

what's more important, perhaps, is not the overall team but whether the player in question is on the ice with crappy players or good players. If a team only has one good line and you're on it, your percentage of points should be higher than if your team has 4 relatively good lines. I'm not suggesting that Kessel is on a line with other good players. That's a different topic.

 

[Devourers]

You're a habs fan you wouldn't know. Phil Kessel doesn't improve a team in anyway. He'll score 2 goals but then be on the ice for 4 for more. He has single handedly cost the team games as much as he has won them.

I've been a fan of Kessel since he was a Bruin and I've seen more than enough Leafs games to know what you're saying is a gross exaggeration of the truth. Being on the ice for 4 more when your supporting cast on the ice is: Reimer, two pylons, JVR and Bozak doesn't mean you single handedly cost your team a game, it means your GM did by having you on the ice with an unproven goalie, two pylons on the back end, a defensive liability and a guy who shouldn't be a #1C.

Am I saying he isn't ever to blame for a goal against? Of course not, but plenty of guys are and they aren't putting up the amount of goals in the past 5 years that Kessel has while they're doing it. Are you a leafs fan? What makes you the expert on Kessel, just curious? Because having watched a ton more leafs hockey than a typical Habs fan, I know for a fact what I'm saying is the truth.

 

[hamzarocks]

thats exactly how i felt after reading that, amazing.

 

[alexanderselivanov*]

I've been a fan of Kessel since he was a Bruin and I've seen more than enough Leafs games to know what you're saying is a gross exaggeration of the truth. Being on the ice for 4 more when your supporting cast on the ice is: Reimer, two pylons, JVR and Bozak doesn't mean you single handedly cost your team a game, it means your GM did by having you on the ice with an unproven goalie, two pylons on the back end, a defensive liability and a guy who shouldn't be a #1C.

Am I saying he isn't ever to blame for a goal against? Of course not, but plenty of guys are and they aren't putting up the amount of goals in the past 5 years that Kessel has while they're doing it. Are you a leafs fan? What makes you the expert on Kessel, just curious? Because having watched a ton more leafs hockey than a typical Habs fan, I know for a fact what I'm saying is the truth.

 

[MikeBabchuk]

More of a 65 point guy when he is one season removed from having three straight campaigns over which he was PPG?

LOL!

Never change HFBoards.

Don't be dramatic. He is not going to maintain or increase his point totals in a leagu7e where scoring is declining and his game is more easily shut down. I don't care what point totals he put up in the past, we're talking about what he'll do in the next few years.

He will still be a consistent producer. But those numbers will probably be about 5-15 points lower in the next three years versus the past three years. If that's unreasonable to you, refute it intelligently rather than attempting to deny the credibility of a well laid out argument with nonsense.

I do not believe Kessel is a consistent 80 point guy any more in this league going forward. I do believe he is a consistent 65 point guy in this league going forward.