OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Doritos Bowl Match Up - Taylor Swift vs San Andreas Fault

[ChaosAgent]

Looking at that graph closer, I think that graph just says that Pickett is just cluttered in a pack of good backups/poor starters, which I think is what most people would say about him at this point.

The Y-axis isn't scaled the same as the X-axis, the variation in QBs for "off-target throws" is much smaller than the variation in QBs for "highly accurate throws". Pickett's 52% highly accurate and 24% off-target isn't all that dissimilar to say Mayfield's 50% highly accurate and 21% off-target. That's not saying Pickett is similar to Mayfield, especially after the terrific season Mayfield just had, but rather those results just paint Pickett as being the poor starter/good backup that most reasonable fans would describe him as.

The more damning thing to take from that graph would be how bad Watson and Fields are and how uninspiring Lawrence is. But with Pickett, I think it just paints the same picture that most people already know.

I think Fields' potential is tied to his superior ability as a runner. Throwing the ball he is flawed at best.

I agree that Watson looks outright terrible. It is a testament to the Browns that they have still put together a very good team despite Watson being one of the worst trades & contracts in league history.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Yeah I think both are telling. High variance guy. Just kind of a confusing graph IMO.

Account is interesting however, never had come across it before. The below was the best graph I found in the last few months.



Both shows you how bad Canada was but also that Smith’s offense in Atlanta was arguably worse at scheming guys open down the field. Let’s really really hope this guy learns from his mistakes because I can’t watch anymore of that shit

Catch rate when considered wide open or overall catch rate?

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Honestly, the telling thing there is that Pickett isn't that much worse than Ben was in his final season. Also Will Levis sucks, which is surprising to me based on what I saw from him.

That chart also supports my working theory of "Pickett is just Desmond Ridder that was drafted in R1".

Ben was terrible his last season, not exactly a good endorsement.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Ben was terrible his last season, not exactly a good endorsement.

That’s more of what I was getting at, how bad Ben was in his final year. I didn’t mean that as an endorsement of Pickett.

 

[T1K]

x.com

x.com

Kirk Cousins not a lock to re-sign with MIN

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

'Just The Steelers:' Ex-Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict Says He Only Played Dirty Against Pittsburgh

Former Cincinnati Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict has made it very clear over the years that he’s not too fond of the Pittsburgh Steelers. He chirped Joey Porter Jr. after the younger Porter said he grew up hating Burfict, and he obviously delivered a number of dirty hits over the years with Steelers...

steelersdepot.com

Well that's a lie. He did this stuff in college, in particular against Faneca. That's why Faneca gave him the business after the whistle often

The 7 dirtiest plays of Vontaze Burfict's career, going back to high school

Vontaze Burfict doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt with this track record.

ftw.usatoday.com

 

[xlm34]

x.com

x.com

Kirk Cousins not a lock to re-sign with MIN

Last I read he apparently wants a lot of money fully guaranteed. More than the projected 30 mil per year that a lot of us were talking about. That’s a big risk.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Catch rate when considered wide open or overall catch rate?

No idea but my gut says it’s just on 10+ yard routes. 60 percent being the high mark seems too low if it was limited to catch rate when wide open.

Well that's a lie. He did this stuff in college, in particular against Faneca. That's why Faneca gave him the business after the whistle often

The 7 dirtiest plays of Vontaze Burfict's career, going back to high school

Vontaze Burfict doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt with this track record.

ftw.usatoday.com

DeCastro right?

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

.


DeCastro right?

Whoops, yes had my white guards mixed up lol

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Yeah I think both are telling. High variance guy. Just kind of a confusing graph IMO.

Account is interesting however, never had come across it before. The below was the best graph I found in the last few months.



Both shows you how bad Canada was but also that Smith’s offense in Atlanta was arguably worse at scheming guys open down the field. Let’s really really hope this guy learns from his mistakes because I can’t watch anymore of that shit

It talkes about target wr down field Kp wasn’t throwing down field both teams had guys open

DJ and GP were at like 30 percent impossible catch radius under mason and some metrics they finished top 10

 

[Peat]

It’s one type of pocket. Not all attempts. Not adjusted for open receivers or low probability throws, excluding screens and check downs, which are often the right play. I wouldn’t say anything should really be damning about that chart about any QB. Those stats stand much better on their own IMO.

RE: Pickett— This teams record is good when he plays full games despite the offense being completely dysfunctional. I feel like he’s actually done what’s been asked of him. The problem is that’s all true but he’s also played extremely poorly (esp last year).

IMO all you can do now is spend the offseason pouring assets into the offense so that you A) can get the best eval on both KP and Arthur Smith possible and B) set the next starter up for success if KP isn’t the guy.

Stinks bc I think DL is a huge need but I would spend minimal cap and picks on the defensive side of the ball.

This but I'd point out that the team doesn't need a ton of assets on the offence. New C, new RT, then...? You can argue for a 4th catching weapon but given how Arthur Smith has run his offences, that's maybe not a super big deal if guys stay fit.

The front office can put the offence first and still have plenty of assets to splash at the defence. Maybe not enough to hit all needs as I think ideally you get 3 new secondary members you really like, probably do something more with ILB, and you need to try and get another impact DL (or at least impact potential)... but they should be able to do something.

 

[JTG]

So Pickett mostly either gives you the ball exactly where you need it, or nowhere near where you need it, with comparatively very little in between.

And the question becomes what's happening with the off-target and how do you fix it.

edit: Don't love Heinicke and Ridder being right down there as well given how most QB stats reflect the things around them as well as the QB themselves

I think if Pickett gets a C that will help. The line won't implode from the C out, and he won't have 10 snaps a game at his feet or over his head.

It cannot be stated enough how below the bar Mason Cole was this year. He was every bit as bad as Dan Moore.

Honestly, the telling thing there is that Pickett isn't that much worse than Ben was in his final season. Also Will Levis sucks, which is surprising to me based on what I saw from him.

That chart also supports my working theory of "Pickett is just Desmond Ridder that was drafted in R1".

We cannot change the fact Kenny was over drafted, but we can temper expectations about what he is supposed to be doing at this point in his career. If he were drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round, would people still be quick to give up on him? Would those who stick up for him not do so with as much gusto?

What Kenny is right now is not shocking whatsoever. He did the same at Pitt. The one thing I can say with Kenny, his line play is tied incredibly close to how well he plays. If his line blows - he's going to absolutely blow. If he line is giving him time and his feet are settled, he can be good.

I will be very shocked if he gets to legit #1 QB status, but I don't think it's out of the question if they can build an offense that plays to his strengths and Najee and Warren continue to find the right break in workload where they both are effective.

Drafting Frazier or JPJ is imperative.

 

[xlm34]

I think if Pickett gets a C that will help. The line won't implode from the C out, and he won't have 10 snaps a game at his feet or over his head.

It cannot be stated enough how below the bar Mason Cole was this year. He was every bit as bad as Dan Moore.



We cannot change the fact Kenny was over drafted, but we can temper expectations about what he is supposed to be doing at this point in his career. If he were drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round, would people still be quick to give up on him? Would those who stick up for him not do so with as much gusto?

What Kenny is right now is not shocking whatsoever. He did the same at Pitt. The one thing I can say with Kenny, his line play is tied incredibly close to how well he plays. If his line blows - he's going to absolutely blow. If he line is giving him time and his feet are settled, he can be good.

I will be very shocked if he gets to legit #1 QB status, but I don't think it's out of the question if they can build an offense that plays to his strengths and Najee and Warren continue to find the right break in workload where they both are effective.

Drafting Frazier or JPJ is imperative.

Yeah he was consistently facing pressure from up the middle and then trying to escape where pressure was coming from the edge. That’s not going to be easy for most QBs let alone one with terrible pocket presence.

The copium I’m going with on Pickett is a stat I saw where he faced the third most difficult defensive schedule (according to DVOA) in history. So maybe with a better line, an actual NFL OC, and a not historically difficult schedule he’ll be serviceable. I certainly don’t think he’ll have many excuses next year.

 

[Fiji Water]

WOW Ron Cook is retiring. An absolute legend in the Pittsburgh media landscape. Ugh, had a feeling this day would come but thought he’d stick around longer given how much he loves his job.

Best wishes down in FL, Cookie.

Lol, "legend" is stretching it. Dude was insufferable when it came to his Pens takes. Also, this is the guy who wrote an article praising Tomlin when he first got hired for being able to speak in full sentences. Unintentional racism at its finest. Good riddance.

 

[T1K]

Last I read he apparently wants a lot of money fully guaranteed. More than the projected 30 mil per year that a lot of us were talking about. That’s a big risk.

Interesting, I haven’t seen that, but I’m sure he’s looking for both a good situation and as much guaranteed $ as he can get — not that I’d blame him for doing so.

I don’t mind the guaranteed money as much as the term. I’d hate to fall into a trap contract like Russ Wilson or Derek Carr.

 

[Peat]

I think if Pickett gets a C that will help. The line won't implode from the C out, and he won't have 10 snaps a game at his feet or over his head.

It cannot be stated enough how below the bar Mason Cole was this year. He was every bit as bad as Dan Moore.

Yeah he was consistently facing pressure from up the middle and then trying to escape where pressure was coming from the edge. That’s not going to be easy for most QBs let alone one with terrible pocket presence.

The copium I’m going with on Pickett is a stat I saw where he faced the third most difficult defensive schedule (according to DVOA) in history. So maybe with a better line, an actual NFL OC, and a not historically difficult schedule he’ll be serviceable. I certainly don’t think he’ll have many excuses next year.

I mean there is a long, long list of things that can be done to help Pickett from last season (and that schedule wasn't the friendliest either). C, as identified, was a huge issue. They've already changed OC to get a guy who can actually explain what he wants and maybe isn't horribly predictable, although we'll see where he's at on the passing game. But he should at least make the running game a genuine threat every game, which would be huge. It would be nice if fitness and development would give him targets other than Pickens and, uh, Pickens.

So hopefully the things come together where he's no longer blatantly in a bad situation.

Oddly enough though that might be for the worst as I can easily see him becoming a 10-20 QB who the team gets comfortable with despite going nowhere. But oh well.

 

[JTG]

Yeah he was consistently facing pressure from up the middle and then trying to escape where pressure was coming from the edge. That’s not going to be easy for most QBs let alone one with terrible pocket presence.

The copium I’m going with on Pickett is a stat I saw where he faced the third most difficult defensive schedule (according to DVOA) in history. So maybe with a better line, an actual NFL OC, and a not historically difficult schedule he’ll be serviceable. I certainly don’t think he’ll have many excuses next year.

For sure - Cole either snapped a ball where Kenny couldn't just catch and make a read more often than not. Good snaps Cole was getting blown back into Kenny's lap. Sometimes you had both at the same time.

We have beat the offensive scheme thing up, but I think the biggest thing that will help is getting him a legit C, then the incorporation of play action, and finally a RT/LT to shoot Moore into the sun. If he gets a C and an offense that runs play action, I think you see a totally different QB.

I mean there is a long, long list of things that can be done to help Pickett from last season (and that schedule wasn't the friendliest either). C, as identified, was a huge issue. They've already changed OC to get a guy who can actually explain what he wants and maybe isn't horribly predictable, although we'll see where he's at on the passing game. But he should at least make the running game a genuine threat every game, which would be huge. It would be nice if fitness and development would give him targets other than Pickens and, uh, Pickens.

So hopefully the things come together where he's no longer blatantly in a bad situation.

Oddly enough though that might be for the worst as I can easily see him becoming a 10-20 QB who the team gets comfortable with despite going nowhere. But oh well.

I agree. I think putting play action in place will be huge. With Najee especially, if that line is blocking and he's gashing defenses, they are going to have to bring in help to bring him down. To me, that is the top of the waterfall...if that happens, the trickle down will be massive.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

It would make me happy if the Steelers gave Dylan Laube a shot in day 3 of the draft. UNH kid, can do a lot of things.

 

[Rossi Rat]

Lol, "legend" is stretching it. Dude was insufferable when it came to his Pens takes. Also, this is the guy who wrote an article praising Tomlin when he first got hired for being able to speak in full sentences. Unintentional racism at its finest. Good riddance.

How dare you accuse Ron of being racist. He’s a great guy.

 

[Peat]

Art Rooney II 'Not Closing The Door' On Steelers Trading For QB

Pittsburgh Steelers Team President Art Rooney II did not rule out the team trading for a quarterback in the offseason. In a 1-on-1 conversation with KDKA’s Bob Pompeani, Rooney said he and the team won’t close the door on any avenue to improve their quarterback room in the coming months. “As we...

steelersdepot.com

Wellp, maybe that's the door to a change. Or maybe that's just PR. I dunno, we'll see.

 

[xlm34]

Art Rooney II 'Not Closing The Door' On Steelers Trading For QB

Pittsburgh Steelers Team President Art Rooney II did not rule out the team trading for a quarterback in the offseason. In a 1-on-1 conversation with KDKA’s Bob Pompeani, Rooney said he and the team won’t close the door on any avenue to improve their quarterback room in the coming months. “As we...

steelersdepot.com

Wellp, maybe that's the door to a change. Or maybe that's just PR. I dunno, we'll see.

It’s kind of a vanilla answer but also kind of a different tune than they’ve been singing this whole offseason so far. Every other time they’ve talked about QBs has been how they still believe in Pickett and want Rudolph back.

Fields is really the only potential starter available for a trade, no?

 

[Peat]

It’s kind of a vanilla answer but also kind of a different tune than they’ve been singing this whole offseason so far. Every other time they’ve talked about QBs has been how they still believe in Pickett and want Rudolph back.

Fields is really the only potential starter available for a trade, no?

Correct barring some big surprise, and even that one isn't certain.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Fields isn't even an upgrade on Pickett, I'd be pretty disappointed if that's the route they went.

I was looking at some other QB options and an idea popped in my head that may be worth exploring. If Penix falls to the 2nd round and he's still available at like pick #38, would you trade pick #51 and #84 to move up and draft him? I think he has 1st round talent and him falling will mostly be due to his injury concerns, but I think there is a very clear upside there that makes that gamble worthwhile.

The negative there is that making that move would basically take them out of the C market in the draft, at least with getting one that you know would be an improvement.

 

[Peat]

Fields isn't even an upgrade on Pickett, I'd be pretty disappointed if that's the route they went.

I was looking at some other QB options and an idea popped in my head that may be worth exploring. If Penix falls to the 2nd round and he's still available at like pick #38, would you trade pick #51 and #84 to move up and draft him? I think he has 1st round talent and him falling will mostly be due to his injury concerns, but I think there is a very clear upside there that makes that gamble worthwhile.

The negative there is that making that move would basically take them out of the C market in the draft, at least with getting one that you know would be an improvement.

What's Penix's ceiling in your book?

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I wouldn’t spend assets to move up and pick Penix. Arm isn’t a bazooka, pocket issues, funky release, lefty. Not a big time athlete. Hope he proves me wrong but I think Pickett still has a better chance to be a guy than Penix does. The gap definitely isn’t big enough for me to use a precious early pick.

I really don’t like the QBs in this class after the top 3.

Edit: forgot McCarthy declared. He’s interesting.