OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Doritos Bowl Match Up - Taylor Swift vs San Andreas Fault

[JTG]

Owner is real Problem

He may be. It is never going to change.

Pickens will block or Pickens will sit.

Well I just think Hines would be good for a team really looking for help in finding a current identity. He can be that guy who was around those teams that they are trying to emulate, and could maybe help these young guys establish what this team is going to look like.

They really could use someone of his ilk in the organization to lend some credence to it again, but I think confidence in ownership and coaching is at an all time low right now.

 

[Peat]

Robinson is the new OC — you think he’s too low on the totem pole to weigh in on a bridge QB? Rudolph could sign as a QB2. I wouldn’t be surprised by that at all.

My point wasn't that Robinson wouldn't have weight on what bridge QB to pick, my point was that he wouldn't have much weight on whether the team should seek a splashy established starter or look for a new guy (and potential bridge).

And if they go for the former, which just seems very likely to me given Atlanta's last few seasons, then he can like Rudolph as much as he wants, he wouldn't get a shot at QB1. They get Wilson or Fields, that's that.

Might they sign Rudolph as a number 2? Maybe. Again, it's possible that decision is taken over Robinson's head. If they get Wilson and ownership signals they don't think Ridder is done, that's that too. But maybe they're happy to wash their hands on Ridder. I imagine Robinson would happily pitch to Rudolph to be a number 2 guy if given the chance.

But here's the thing. Imo, number 2 in Pittsburgh isn't the same chance as number 2 in Atlanta (assuming they get Wilson or Fields). Pickett's has to be the least secure starter in the league right now, not to mention injury prone. If Atlanta get Wilson or Fields, there'd be a significant honeymoon period where they'll try to make it work regardless. No matter how much Robinson might like him, he's still closer to starting in Pittsburgh.

 

[Josey Wales]

Steelers Part Ways with Two More Offensive Assistant Coaches

The Pittsburgh Steelers now have four vacancies on their offensive coaching staff.

steelersnow.com

 

[T1K]

My point wasn't that Robinson wouldn't have weight on what bridge QB to pick, my point was that he wouldn't have much weight on whether the team should seek a splashy established starter or look for a new guy (and potential bridge).

And if they go for the former, which just seems very likely to me given Atlanta's last few seasons, then he can like Rudolph as much as he wants, he wouldn't get a shot at QB1. They get Wilson or Fields, that's that.

Might they sign Rudolph as a number 2? Maybe. Again, it's possible that decision is taken over Robinson's head. If they get Wilson and ownership signals they don't think Ridder is done, that's that too. But maybe they're happy to wash their hands on Ridder. I imagine Robinson would happily pitch to Rudolph to be a number 2 guy if given the chance.

But here's the thing. Imo, number 2 in Pittsburgh isn't the same chance as number 2 in Atlanta (assuming they get Wilson or Fields). Pickett's has to be the least secure starter in the league right now, not to mention injury prone. If Atlanta get Wilson or Fields, there'd be a significant honeymoon period where they'll try to make it work regardless. No matter how much Robinson might like him, he's still closer to starting in Pittsburgh.

I’m struggling to understand why Robinson would have less input on acquiring a vet like Russ/Fields than he would on someone like Rudolph. Undermining the OC doesn’t seem like a recipe for success.

IMO, there’s an equal chance the Steelers could end up with Russ/Fields as ATL. Both Pickett and Ridder were drafted in the same year, they’re on the same timeline from a development standpoint. The Steelers committed a more premium pick for Pickett, but at this point that’s a sunk cost. If I had to put odds on where MR will sign, I’d say it’s like 40/40% between PIT/ATL and then 20% to the rest of the league.

 

[Peat]

I’m struggling to understand why Robinson would have less input on acquiring a vet like Russ/Fields than he would on someone like Rudolph. Undermining the OC doesn’t seem like a recipe for success.

IMO, there’s an equal chance the Steelers could end up with Russ/Fields as ATL. Both Pickett and Ridder were drafted in the same year, they’re on the same timeline from a development standpoint. The Steelers committed a more premium pick for Pickett, but at this point that’s a sunk cost. If I had to put odds on where MR will sign, I’d say it’s like 40/40% between PIT/ATL and then 20% to the rest of the league.

See, you seem to be thinking of this from an angle of what is the smartest best practice thing for an NFL team.

And I'm thinking of this from the angle of "what do NFL teams usually do in all their human error".

Is undermining the OC smart? Probably not, but the league is full of guys getting overruled from above. Was Rooney smart to overrule Colbert about bringing Roethlisberger back? Probably not, but he did it. Was Blank smart to push parting ways with Matt Ryan in the hope of landing Deshaun Watson? Probably not, but he did it. Etc,etc,

Zac Robinson doesn't have the clout to win those battles. Hell, the GM and HC don't have the clout to win those battles. Robinson has a chance to pitch to those guys but that's it. If Blank decides he wants the team to swing for a veteran QB, that's what they'll do.

Now, I don't have any press utterings to the effect of Blank wanting a veteran. I only have the 2+2 of "impatient interventionist owner fires HC who had inferior QBs maybe wants a big swing there". But it feels like a fairly classic reaction to this situation. He's said he'll back whatever the GM and HC want, but what the GM and HC want is to not lose his confidence and get fired. Selling Blank on a bridge starter is a ballsy start there.

And we can be fairly sure that this team is not looking for a veteran starter given Rooney's and Tomlin's statements. He's not safe, but they've been pretty unequivocal about confidence in Pickett and not looking for an outside answer ("is next year's starting QB on this roster?" "Yes").

So I think it's a lot more likely one of Wilson or Fields ends up there than here.

 

[JTG]

See, you seem to be thinking of this from an angle of what is the smartest best practice thing for an NFL team.

And I'm thinking of this from the angle of "what do NFL teams usually do in all their human error".

Is undermining the OC smart? Probably not, but the league is full of guys getting overruled from above. Was Rooney smart to overrule Colbert about bringing Roethlisberger back? Probably not, but he did it. Was Blank smart to push parting ways with Matt Ryan in the hope of landing Deshaun Watson? Probably not, but he did it. Etc,etc,

Zac Robinson doesn't have the clout to win those battles. Hell, the GM and HC don't have the clout to win those battles. Robinson has a chance to pitch to those guys but that's it. If Blank decides he wants the team to swing for a veteran QB, that's what they'll do.

Now, I don't have any press utterings to the effect of Blank wanting a veteran. I only have the 2+2 of "impatient interventionist owner fires HC who had inferior QBs maybe wants a big swing there". But it feels like a fairly classic reaction to this situation. He's said he'll back whatever the GM and HC want, but what the GM and HC want is to not lose his confidence and get fired. Selling Blank on a bridge starter is a ballsy start there.

And we can be fairly sure that this team is not looking for a veteran starter given Rooney's and Tomlin's statements. He's not safe, but they've been pretty unequivocal about confidence in Pickett and not looking for an outside answer ("is next year's starting QB on this roster?" "Yes").

So I think it's a lot more likely one of Wilson or Fields ends up there than here.

Fields to ATL makes a ton of sense.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I think Hines Ward coaching here would be interesting.

So when you posted this I had no contest for it other than "hell f***ing yeah one of my all-time favorite Steelers back with the team would be awesome." So I looked up Hines and saw he was sent packing by his XFL (or whatever it's called) team. So I was like "cool".

But I just saw - and maybe I'm late to the game but I hadn't seen it - that Tomlin fired Frisman Jackson? And now I'm like a very little bit losing my shit.

Which means no way it's happening.

 

[MrBrightside]

 

[JTG]

So when you posted this I had no contest for it other than "hell f***ing yeah one of my all-time favorite Steelers back with the team would be awesome." So I looked up Hines and saw he was sent packing by his XFL (or whatever it's called) team. So I was like "cool".

But I just saw - and maybe I'm late to the game but I hadn't seen it - that Tomlin fired Frisman Jackson? And now I'm like a very little bit losing my shit.

Which means no way it's happening.

If they want to talk about "culture" and how they want to get back to what they were - Hines Ward was the face of that culture when he was here. I don't see a negative and getting him experience, maybe he would turn into a good OC at some point? That is the big change Smith can bring here, and I hope he does. This is a big deal for him. He's licking his wounds, but just because Tomlin can't develop coaches does not mean Smith can't.

I said this months ago, they should be seeing where these old Steelers are in the coaching world and bringing them in for these roles if they are that serious.

 

[Pens1566]

Jesus. Pickett is just awful.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I’m a little confused by this graph. What happens the other 25% of the time?

The way I read this is that he’s highly accurate more than half the time which is not great but not bad. But he’s also off target 23% of the time?

 

[Pens1566]

I’m a little confused by this graph. What happens the other 25% of the time?

The way I read this is that he’s highly accurate more than half the time which is not great but not bad. But he’s also off target 23% of the time?

Yep.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Yep.

I feel like excluding 1/4 of throws (not just him, most QBs are missing a large amount of throws) from a specific pocket type makes it a bad exercise to graph. It’s interesting but probably best to look at each stat separately.

 

[T1K]

Jesus. Pickett is just awful.

Give him another 5 years just in case

 

[Pens1566]

I feel like excluding 1/4 of throws (not just him, most QBs are missing a large amount of throws) from a specific pocket type makes it a bad exercise to graph. It’s interesting but probably best to look at each stat separately.

I'm not sure where the rest is going (guessing it's a 3 segment metric and they're just showing the extremes), but the % of off target alone is telling.

 

[Peat]

So Pickett mostly either gives you the ball exactly where you need it, or nowhere near where you need it, with comparatively very little in between.

And the question becomes what's happening with the off-target and how do you fix it.

edit: Don't love Heinicke and Ridder being right down there as well given how most QB stats reflect the things around them as well as the QB themselves

 

[Empoleon8771]

Honestly, the telling thing there is that Pickett isn't that much worse than Ben was in his final season. Also Will Levis sucks, which is surprising to me based on what I saw from him.

That chart also supports my working theory of "Pickett is just Desmond Ridder that was drafted in R1".

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I'm not sure where the rest is going (guessing it's a 3 segment metric and they're just showing the extremes), but the % of off target alone is telling.

Yeah I think both are telling. High variance guy. Just kind of a confusing graph IMO.

Account is interesting however, never had come across it before. The below was the best graph I found in the last few months.



Both shows you how bad Canada was but also that Smith’s offense in Atlanta was arguably worse at scheming guys open down the field. Let’s really really hope this guy learns from his mistakes because I can’t watch anymore of that shit

 

[Peat]

Honestly, the telling thing there is that Pickett isn't that much worse than Ben was in his final season.

Also Will Levis sucks, which is surprising to me based on what I saw from him.

Levis was throwing it deep a *lot*. Which is inherently inaccurate. So arguably this chart isn't reflecting his work fairly.

Which was a thought that occurred to me wondering how much of Pickett's median high accuracy rating comes down to the scheme not pushing those balls a ton (but then Pickett was very accurate in 22 on PFF's deep ball measurement, and tight windows stresses it a bunch).

edit - this one answers that a little

 

[T1K]

Honestly, the telling thing there is that Pickett isn't that much worse than Ben was in his final season. Also Will Levis sucks, which is surprising to me based on what I saw from him.

That chart also supports my working theory of "Pickett is just Desmond Ridder that was drafted in R1".

Small sample size for Will Levis. He passed the eye test for me too, particularly in the Miami game.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Looking at that graph closer, I think that graph just says that Pickett is just cluttered in a pack of good backups/poor starters, which I think is what most people would say about him at this point.

The Y-axis isn't scaled the same as the X-axis, the variation in QBs for "off-target throws" is much smaller than the variation in QBs for "highly accurate throws". Pickett's 52% highly accurate and 24% off-target isn't all that dissimilar to say Mayfield's 50% highly accurate and 21% off-target. That's not saying Pickett is similar to Mayfield, especially after the terrific season Mayfield just had, but rather those results just paint Pickett as being the poor starter/good backup that most reasonable fans would describe him as.

The more damning thing to take from that graph would be how bad Watson and Fields are and how uninspiring Lawrence is. But with Pickett, I think it just paints the same picture that most people already know.

 

[Peat]

Another interesting one. Note the drop in accuracy when it goes from clean pocket to just in the pocket.



Think it's been pointed out before that Pickett has been a lot better vs man than zone

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

It’s one type of pocket. Not all attempts. Not adjusted for open receivers or low probability throws, excluding screens and check downs, which are often the right play. I wouldn’t say anything should really be damning about that chart about any QB. Those stats stand much better on their own IMO.

RE: Pickett— This teams record is good when he plays full games despite the offense being completely dysfunctional. I feel like he’s actually done what’s been asked of him. The problem is that’s all true but he’s also played extremely poorly (esp last year).

IMO all you can do now is spend the offseason pouring assets into the offense so that you A) can get the best eval on both KP and Arthur Smith possible and B) set the next starter up for success if KP isn’t the guy.

Stinks bc I think DL is a huge need but I would spend minimal cap and picks on the defensive side of the ball.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Excited for the prospect of the Steelers drafting JPJ and moving him to guard.

 

[Empoleon8771]

IMO all you can do now is spend the offseason pouring assets into the offense so that you A) can get the best eval on both KP and Arthur Smith possible and B) set the next starter up for success if KP isn’t the guy.

This is exactly what they should be doing IMO. It's a "shit or get off the pot" season for Pickett. The offense is going to be built based on a run-heavy, power type of football where Pickett needs to just get the ball to his playmaking skill guys. If he can't do that reliably, he needs to be thrown aside.

I think a sector of Steelers fans super overrated Rudolph, but he did a phenomenal job at doing exactly that to end last year. He wasn't doing anything crazy like Mahomes, he was just putting the ball where it needed to go and he let the playmaking WRs do the rest. If Pickett can't do that, kick him to the curb.