OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Doritos Bowl Match Up - Taylor Swift vs San Andreas Fault

[MrBrightside]

So running an Arthur Smith, under center, play-action heavy offense would appear to be the worst possible situation for Pickett. In the pocket he's Zach Wilson. Out of it he makes plays.

 

[WickedWrister]

So running an Arthur Smith, under center, play-action heavy offense would appear to be the worst possible situation for Pickett. In the pocket he's Zach Wilson. Out of it he makes plays.

I'm willing to concede some of that is just playcalling structure, but it does match what my eyes tell me regarding Kenny's struggle in the pocket.

 

[JTG]

So running an Arthur Smith, under center, play-action heavy offense would appear to be the worst possible situation for Pickett. In the pocket he's Zach Wilson. Out of it he makes plays.

If you have watched him at Pitt, you'd know that he did really well with play-action. He barely has played any since he's been in the NFL. Mason Cole also was a contributing factor in that stat.

 

[xlm34]

I mean we just spent a 1st round pick on a QB most teams probably had a 2nd round grade on... I'd love for someone to ask Arthur Smith that even though there's no chance he'd answer it truthfully lol.

I'm not writing his career off after 25 games, but at this point the team needs to be exploring alternative options beyond simply running it back with Pickett and Rudolph. Draft, Trade, FA.

I've mentioned this before but when Andy Weidl was in Philly, they spent a 2nd round pick on Jalen Hurts the year after giving Carson Wentz a 4 year $128m extension. The Steelers shouldn't be confused with a team that cares about analytics, but given how important the position is I don't get why teams don't draft more of them. We saw what like 15 teams lose their starting qb at some point this year?

I do 1,000% agree with this point. You either have a guy you think can be a franchise QB or you should be looking for one. Maybe that’s still Pickett in their minds.

And it may very well end up that a Pickett/Rudolph is the best they could do but I’d be pretty disappointed if they just do that without at least exploring all options.

 

[WickedWrister]

I do 1,000% agree with this point. You either have a guy you think can be a franchise QB or you should be looking for one. Maybe that’s still Pickett in their minds.

And it may very well end up that a Pickett/Rudolph is the best they could do but I’d be pretty disappointed if they just do that without at least exploring all options.

Yeah I'd be more inclined to give Pickett another year if he was considered a raw prospect or something. But he was a 5th year senior and is going to be 26 before the season starts.

 

[JTG]

Yeah I'd be more inclined to give Pickett another year if he was considered a raw prospect or something. But he was a 5th year senior and is going to be 26 before the season starts.

So what? He has effectively played a season of football. almost half of his games played were when he was a rookie, coming off the bench with one of the worst offensive lines ever created, and an offensive scheme that was openly mocked by defenses.

I think this is a big year for Kenny. I'd almost like the two sides to come to an agreement today of what they deem successful so we can all agree at the end of the year he was good or not.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

I mean we just spent a 1st round pick on a QB most teams probably had a 2nd round grade on... I'd love for someone to ask Arthur Smith that even though there's no chance he'd answer it truthfully lol.

I'm not writing his career off after 25 games, but at this point the team needs to be exploring alternative options beyond simply running it back with Pickett and Rudolph (if we even have him next year). Draft, Trade, FA.

I've mentioned this before but when Andy Weidl was in Philly, they spent a 2nd round pick on Jalen Hurts the year after giving Carson Wentz a 4 year $128m extension. The Steelers shouldn't be confused with a team that cares about analytics, but given how important the position is I don't get why teams don't draft more of them. We saw what like 15 teams lose their starting qb at some point this year?

This isn't directed at you, but in general:

If KP becomes a career upper level backup QB in the league. Is that terrible?
QB's get hurt an awful lot in this NFL and having a good backup is critical. It's not like he's going to be Jamarcus Russell and be out of the league quickly.

We didn't pick him in the top 10 picks or anything like that. Yes we hoped KP would be more, but I don't think it's an awful waste of draft capital.

 

[MrBrightside]

So what? He has effectively played a season of football. almost half of his games played were when he was a rookie, coming off the bench with one of the worst offensive lines ever created, and an offensive scheme that was openly mocked by defenses.

I think this is a big year for Kenny. I'd almost like the two sides to come to an agreement today of what they deem successful so we can all agree at the end of the year he was good or not.

I mean, come on. It wasn't a great line but it was better than some offensive lines whose QB's were successful this season.

I'm fine with not writing him off. I'm absolutely not fine with gambling on the 2024 season with the hopes he will recreate the one good year he had in college against Wake Forest and Duke with no viable alternative. Hope he's awesome, I really do. But literally betting the entire upcoming season on him being a lot better than he's been is not sound.

This isn't directed at you, but in general:

If KP becomes a career upper level backup QB in the league. Is that terrible?
QB's get hurt an awful lot in this NFL and having a good backup is critical. It's not like he's going to be Jamarcus Russell and be out of the league quickly.

We didn't pick him in the top 10 picks or anything like that. Yes we hoped KP would be more, but I don't think it's an awful waste of draft capital.

I think picking someone in the first round who is not a starter in the NFL would be a pretty bad use of resources, yes.

 

[JTG]

For Kenny to be successful, I'd like to see him over 7 yards per attempt, 65% completion percentage, >23 TDs, <11 ints. If he has those numbers, I think we are doing OK.

I mean, come on. It wasn't a great line but it was better than some offensive lines whose QB's were successful this season.

I'm fine with not writing him off. I'm absolutely not fine with gambling on the 2024 season with the hopes he will recreate the one good year he had in college against Wake Forest and Duke with no viable alternative. Hope he's awesome, I really do. But literally betting the entire upcoming season on him being a lot better than he's been is not sound.


I think picking someone in the first round who is not a starter in the NFL would be a pretty bad use of resources, yes.

That line had Dan Moore, Kendrick Green, Kevin Dotson (out of position), and Chuks Okorafor.

Those are 4 backups in the NFL, at best.

 

[MrBrightside]

For Kenny to be successful, I'd like to see him over 7 yards per attempt, 65% completion percentage, >23 TDs, <11 ints. If he has those numbers, I think we are doing OK.



That line had Dan Moore, Kendrick Green, Kevin Dotson (out of position), and Chuks Okorafor.

Those are 4 backups in the NFL, at best.

I'm not going to re-engage in the debates over the excuse making that the H2P'ers have for Pickett and it is what it is. I will just say that (a) last year's offensive line was not great but it was not THE WORST IN HISTORY as you suggest and (b) the real point is that if you go into 2024 with no viable alternative to Pickett, it's putting an extraordinary amount of faith and weight on a guy who had an awesome 2021 collegiate season and who has really not done much else that would suggest he can be a starting QB on a good team. I don't like taking that gamble myself, but I recognize that's the path we are headed toward.

 

[xlm34]

So what? He has effectively played a season of football. almost half of his games played were when he was a rookie, coming off the bench with one of the worst offensive lines ever created, and an offensive scheme that was openly mocked by defenses.

I think this is a big year for Kenny. I'd almost like the two sides to come to an agreement today of what they deem successful so we can all agree at the end of the year he was good or not.

For me it’s mostly going to be dependent on the TD% - he’s at 1.8% right which is historically bad. If he starts and finishes the season with somewhere around 4-5% rate while not seeing a big jump in his interceptions I’d be happy.

I’m not expecting huge passing stats in an Arthur Smith offense but he has to start getting the ball in the end zone.

 

[JTG]

I'm not going to re-engage in the debates over the excuse making that the H2P'ers have for Pickett and it is what it is. I will just say that (a) last year's offensive line was not great but it was not THE WORST IN HISTORY as you suggest and (b) the real point is that if you go into 2024 with no viable alternative to Pickett, it's putting an extraordinary amount of faith and weight on a guy who had an awesome 2021 collegiate season and who has really not done much else that would suggest he can be a starting QB on a good team. I don't like taking that gamble myself, but I recognize that's the path we are headed toward.

I didn't say last year. Considering Kendrick Green's name was in my post, I would assume you know I was talking about his rookie season. They need a number 2. People who defend Pickett would even tell you that. You are just one of these Pickett haters that thinks you are fighting the good fight of curbing expectations for a fanbase that wants their 1st round pick to work out and will be willing to change other controls before scrapping the entire project.

 

[WickedWrister]

So what? He has effectively played a season of football. almost half of his games played were when he was a rookie, coming off the bench with one of the worst offensive lines ever created, and an offensive scheme that was openly mocked by defenses.

I think this is a big year for Kenny. I'd almost like the two sides to come to an agreement today of what they deem successful so we can all agree at the end of the year he was good or not.

He's started 25 games for us in two years, and then 50 games across 5 seasons at Pitt. His experience was actually one of the things I liked about him coming out because it complimented our defense that was ready to win. All the draft pundits talked about his "pro readiness".

But I think that cuts both ways now. Development isn't always linear but given that he was already an older prospect coming out, the evaluation window should be shorter than if he were a raw 21 year old.

This isn't directed at you, but in general:

If KP becomes a career upper level backup QB in the league. Is that terrible?
QB's get hurt an awful lot in this NFL and having a good backup is critical. It's not like he's going to be Jamarcus Russell and be out of the league quickly.

We didn't pick him in the top 10 picks or anything like that. Yes we hoped KP would be more, but I don't think it's an awful waste of draft capital.

Wouldn't be catastrophic but definitely in the bottom like 50% of his range of outcomes. You can always get backups in free agency if you're willing to spend a little more. And considering the Ravens got a franchise Center like 5 picks later, it stings even more.

I'm fine with not writing him off. I'm absolutely not fine with gambling on the 2024 season with the hopes he will recreate the one good year he had in college against Wake Forest and Duke with no viable alternative.

As a 23 year old 5th year senior who's looking like he benefited more from Jordan Addison than the other way around.

 

[JTG]

For me it’s mostly going to be dependent on the TD% - he’s at 1.8% right which is historically bad. If he starts and finishes the season with somewhere around 4-5% rate while not seeing a big jump in his interceptions I’d be happy.

I’m not expecting huge passing stats in an Arthur Smith offense but he has to start getting the ball in the end zone.

I could actually see Kenny having ridiculous passing stats per attempt, but having very low attempts.

It's the running game. If they can control the line of scrimmage and really make teams play the run, those Titans teams could gash defenses.

 

[JTG]

He's started 25 games for us in two years, and then 50 games across 5 seasons at Pitt. His experience was actually one of the things I liked about him coming out because it complimented our defense that was ready to win. All the draft pundits talked about his "pro readiness".

But I think that cuts both ways now. Development isn't always linear but given that he was already an older prospect coming out, the evaluation window should be shorter than if he were a raw 21 year old.


Wouldn't be catastrophic but definitely in the bottom like 50% of his range of outcomes. You can always get backups in free agency if you're willing to spend a little more. And considering the Ravens got a franchise Center like 5 picks later, it stings even more.



As a 23 year old 5th year senior who's looking like he benefited more from Jordan Addison than the other way around.

I just inherently disagree that age means anything. Off the field - sure. On the field, Kenny was ready for the NFL after his senior year. His super senior year was wasted in terms of development. He was too good for college football and he had a ridiculous WR to boot. He got out of that 5th year exactly what he was looking for - 1st round pick.

The biggest thing these guys need to adjust to is the speed and processing it takes and his age and college experience has nothing to do with that. He was pro-ready in terms of leadership, maturity, ability to command a huddle, ability to study and prepare and accept what it takes to be a pro (i.e. pro-ready). It doesn't necessarily mean he's going to start off the hop and be fantastic.

 

[MrBrightside]

I didn't say last year. Considering Kendrick Green's name was in my post, I would assume you know I was talking about his rookie season. They need a number 2. People who defend Pickett would even tell you that. You are just one of these Pickett haters that thinks you are fighting the good fight of curbing expectations for a fanbase that wants their 1st round pick to work out and will be willing to change other controls before scrapping the entire project.

I absolutely adore how anyone who is skeptical of a guy who has never shown he's a good NFL QB will become a good NFL QB is a "Pickett hater." It's like Dokish and Vukovcan talking points get spewed everywhere you look. No, they don't need a #2. They need a #1, and if the plan is to get someone who is only a #2, you're gambling another season on Pickett. You think that's the dandy. We get it, Pretty much no one outside of the Pitt fan base agrees with assessment, but hope you prove us wrong and I'll wear a Golden Panther t-shirt to the Super Bowl next season.

 

[WickedWrister]

I just inherently disagree that age means anything. Off the field - sure. On the field, Kenny was ready for the NFL after his senior year. His super senior year was wasted in terms of development. He was too good for college football and he had a ridiculous WR to boot. He got out of that 5th year exactly what he was looking for - 1st round pick.

The biggest thing these guys need to adjust to is the speed and processing it takes and his age and college experience has nothing to do with that. He was pro-ready in terms of leadership, maturity, ability to command a huddle, ability to study and prepare and accept what it takes to be a pro (i.e. pro-ready). It doesn't necessarily mean he's going to start off the hop and be fantastic.

Pickett was probably a day 3 pick after his senior year and then yeah, the Heisman candidate season coupled with a super weak QB class is what vaulted him up the boards.

Age is a huge part of an evaluation. If you have a lot of success as an 18 year old freshman or 19 yo sophomore, it usually indicates that you're winning based on talent and not superior physical advantages (or experience) over younger competition. And it's not like he came from some gimmicky 1 read RPO college offense.

 

[JTG]

I absolutely adore how anyone who is skeptical of a guy who has never shown he's a good NFL QB will become a good NFL QB is a "Pickett hater." It's like Dokish and Vukovcan talking points get spewed everywhere you look. No, they don't need a #2. They need a #1, and if the plan is to get someone who is only a #2, you're gambling another season on Pickett. You think that's the dandy. We get it, Pretty much no one outside of the Pitt fan base agrees with assessment, but hope you prove us wrong and I'll wear a Golden Panther t-shirt to the Super Bowl next season.

Anything that is written or said has been said that NFL coordinators believe that Kenny is an NFL QB and they should continue developing him.

This team hasn't looked professionally coached for all but 3 games. And even then...

 

[xlm34]

I desperately wish Pickett went to Middle of Nowhere University so people could actually have a conversation about him without it resorting to “You only like him because he went to Pitt!!!!!”

Most people talk about Pickett like literally every fan base talks about first round QBs.

 

[MrBrightside]

I desperately wish Pickett went to Middle of Nowhere University so people could actually have a conversation about him without it resorting to “You only like him because he went to Pitt!!!!!”

Most people talk about Pickett like literally every fan base talks about first round QBs.

And the other side of the coin is that if he went to Oregon State or Baylor and played like he has the past two years you'd not see people rushing to his defense like they do. It goes both ways. And again, I don't care where he went to college. I just want a real NFL starting QB and not the 4th straight hope and prayer at the position.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I absolutely adore how anyone who is skeptical of a guy who has never shown he's a good NFL QB will become a good NFL QB is a "Pickett hater."

Not dissimilar to how anyone who thinks it’s worth it to provide an improved setting for the player and run it back another year to see is H2P as far as some people are concerned?

 

[T1K]

This isn't directed at you, but in general:

If KP becomes a career upper level backup QB in the league. Is that terrible?
QB's get hurt an awful lot in this NFL and having a good backup is critical. It's not like he's going to be Jamarcus Russell and be out of the league quickly.

We didn't pick him in the top 10 picks or anything like that. Yes we hoped KP would be more, but I don't think it's an awful waste of draft capital.

No issue with KP as a backup. I don’t have a problem with taking a shot on him in round 1 either. He didn’t work out, but I’m happy we took a swing. My issue is if the team decides to double down on him, but it’s too early to know what their plans are at QB so I don’t wanna get worked up about hypotheticals.

 

[MrBrightside]

Not dissimilar to how anyone who thinks it’s worth it to provide an improved setting for the player and run it back another year to see is H2P as far as some people are concerned?

Probably not dissimilar in some respects. But again my argument really has nothing to do with where he went to college. It has everything to do with not wanting to risk another season on the hope and prayer that a guy who had one good collegiate season and who has struggled in the NFL is suddenly going to find it. I would feel this way if Pickett had gone to any college in America,

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Yeah I'd be more inclined to give Pickett another year if he was considered a raw prospect or something. But he was a 5th year senior and is going to be 26 before the season starts.

I don’t get the age thing.

If he puts it together this coming season, that gives them about a ten year window until he hits the age most QBs decline at 36+.

MR will be 29 at the start of next season, so if he wins the job isn’t that even more concerning given his age?

So what? He has effectively played a season of football. almost half of his games played were when he was a rookie, coming off the bench with one of the worst offensive lines ever created, and an offensive scheme that was openly mocked by defenses.

I think this is a big year for Kenny. I'd almost like the two sides to come to an agreement today of what they deem successful so we can all agree at the end of the year he was good or not.

I’d say he has to win a playoff game, but with Tomlin as the coach that isn’t a fair barometer.

I’m just being patient like I said I would in April 2022, and I’ll see how his season looks this time next year and judge.

If he can’t win or hold the starting job though, I’ll probably be out on him.

 

[MrBrightside]

I don’t get the age thing.

If he puts it together this coming season, that gives them about a ten year window until he hits the age most QBs decline at 36+.

MR will be 29 at the start of next season, so if he wins the job isn’t that even more concerning given his age?

It's not about him lasting long enough in the NFL. It's about the likelihood he's suddenly going to take a step forward. The older you are the less likely it is.