OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Doritos Bowl Match Up - Taylor Swift vs San Andreas Fault

[Mr Jiggyfly]

It's not about him lasting long enough in the NFL. It's about the likelihood he's suddenly going to take a step forward. The older you are the less likely it is.

I get it, but what if MR wins the starting job?

He hasn’t proven anything either or even won a playoff game.

He will be 29 years old next season so that should be of even greater concern.

It’s odd to have concerns about KPs age and not MRs age who is three years older.

If MR wins the job it means KP is likely a bust and MR as the starter is 99% going to mean this team is spinning its wheels and has to start all over again.

 

[MrBrightside]

I get it, but what if MR wins the starting job?

He hasn’t proven anything either or even won a playoff game.

He will be 29 years old next season so that should be of even greater concern.

It’s odd to have concerns about KPs age and not MRs age who is three years older.

If MR wins the job it means KP is likely a bust and MR as the starter is 99% going to mean this team is spinning its wheels and has to start all over again.

I don't want Rudolph to be the starter either.

 

[T1K]

Anything that is written or said has been said that NFL coordinators believe that Kenny is an NFL QB and they should continue developing him.

This team hasn't looked professionally coached for all but 3 games. And even then...

Other teams coordinators believe KP can be a starter in this league?

 

[JTG]

Probably not dissimilar in some respects. But again my argument really has nothing to do with where he went to college. It has everything to do with not wanting to risk another season on the hope and prayer that a guy who had one good collegiate season and who has struggled in the NFL is suddenly going to find it. I would feel this way if Pickett had gone to any college in America,

I couldn't care less that he went to Pitt. Actually, many of us who do defend Kenny were not fans of the pick. To scrap Kenny and start over right now would set the team back more than trying to build the best team we can and then let Kenny fail in glory. I like what I saw when Canada got shitcanned, both from Kenny and Rudolph. It is not this far fetched thing to believe that would specific things being changed, Kenny is a different player. We see it all the time in this game.

 

[WickedWrister]

I get it, but what if MR wins the starting job?

He hasn’t proven anything either or even won a playoff game.

He will be 29 years old next season so that should be of even greater concern.

It’s odd to have concerns about KPs age and not MRs age who is three years older.

If MR wins the job it means KP is likely a bust and MR as the starter is 99% going to mean this team is spinning its wheels and has to start all over again.

The age concerns I have about Kenny are around where he's at in his stage of development. Using the most extreme example would be like 28 year old 1st round QB Brandon Weeden back in 2012. He was basically a finished product. Obviously Kenny's not that old but how much more meat is there left on the bone for a soon to be 26 year old QB?

Mason is what he is, firmly on the backup QB trajectory after struggling in 2019. I'd argue Mason already did win the job last year after the team elected not to start a healthy Kenny in the playoffs.

Honestly my worst case scenario is Pickett makes a small but not meaningful improvement and we spend another year on the fence abut him.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

I don't want Rudolph to be the starter either.

Well there is almost zero chance they take a QB high in the draft, and the best option for a vet is a one playoff win 35 year old with a torn Achilles that wants 35-40 million.

 

[Peat]

Other teams coordinators believe KP can be a starter in this league?

Because that's what they see?

The whole "you can't trust other teams' evaluation" thing makes no sense when you see the volume of what NFL staff (anonymously) say about other teams in the league and what they're saying what they do. If people were deliberately feeding bad ideas into the media, it'd look hella different. 95% of it is common sense.

I'm not writing his career off after 25 games, but at this point the team needs to be exploring alternative options beyond simply running it back with Pickett and Rudolph (if we even have him next year). Draft, Trade, FA.

I've mentioned this before but when Andy Weidl was in Philly, they spent a 2nd round pick on Jalen Hurts the year after giving Carson Wentz a 4 year $128m extension. The Steelers shouldn't be confused with a team that cares about analytics, but given how important the position is I don't get why teams don't draft more of them. We saw what like 15 teams lose their starting qb at some point this year?

I am all for aggression at QB but

a) You have limited development opportunities for these guys and a long development arc. Draft too many and you're wrecking your chances of it happening

b) More importantly, in this situation... I think most of us would like to upgrade on Pickett but the QB market is well known and the pickings are slim. There isn't a trade unless you like Fields. FA generally looks uninspiring. We're in a bad situation to draft. Sometimes the best thing to do is nothing and avoid making mistakes that make it harder down the line.

This isn't directed at you, but in general:

If KP becomes a career upper level backup QB in the league. Is that terrible?
QB's get hurt an awful lot in this NFL and having a good backup is critical. It's not like he's going to be Jamarcus Russell and be out of the league quickly.

We didn't pick him in the top 10 picks or anything like that. Yes we hoped KP would be more, but I don't think it's an awful waste of draft capital.

The weird all or nothing importance of QB in this league means I would answer yes and no at the same time.

I also think it's quite likely that if Pickett is a career backup, he doesn't do it here, which hurts the case for it being a good use of draft capital but then most late 1st rounders don't stick around past their rookie contract.

He's started 25 games for us in two years, and then 50 games across 5 seasons at Pitt. His experience was actually one of the things I liked about him coming out because it complimented our defense that was ready to win. All the draft pundits talked about his "pro readiness".

But I think that cuts both ways now. Development isn't always linear but given that he was already an older prospect coming out, the evaluation window should be shorter than if he were a raw 21 year old.

Not all draft analysts. A lot, but not all. I'm still struck by this (imo very prescient) profile from Zierlein -

"The top indicator for future success or failure will likely rest in a team's ability to build Pickett's trust, poise and discipline from the pocket. He can make all the throws, but he'll only be able to execute against disguised fronts and NFL pressure if he's willing to hang in and win with his eyes first. He carries a boom/bust label, but the 2021 tape and productivity showed off his potential to become a good starter in time."

In any case, I think people focus too much on age and not enough on NFL experience. Yeah, the younger kids carry longer development arcs and/or more room for improvement, but ultimately learning to play at NFL pace and with NFL habits requires experience.

Is he at the stage where you should know whether he can learn from that experience or not? Imo, he's right at the cusp. Him getting injured was hella annoying.

And there's also the element of the Steelers botching his game platform about as much as possible.

Less inclined to trade up for one in round 2*

Mahomes and Allen are great. Herbert, idk he has no playoff wins in his career. While I’d certainly not turn my nose up at him, he hasn't been a home run either. Quite possibly one of the more overrated QBs in the league (the chargers are a dumpster fire though to be fair).

Oh gotcha. Would you trade up for a guy in round 2 that you hoped to trade back into round 1 for, but couldn't get it done? Or would you take your chances he keeps falling?

As for Herbert - I think he has done everything reasonable considering the dumpster fire around him.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

The age concerns I have about Kenny are around where he's at in his stage of development. Using the most extreme example would be like 28 year old 1st round QB Brandon Weeden back in 2012. He was basically a finished product. Obviously Kenny's not that old but how much more meat is there left on the bone for a soon to be 26 year old QB?

Mason is what he is, firmly on the backup QB trajectory after struggling in 2019. I'd argue Mason already did win the job last year after the team elected not to start a healthy Kenny in the playoffs.

Honestly my worst case scenario is Pickett makes a small but not meaningful improvement and we spend another year on the fence abut him.

I have zero doubt KP's development has been bungled, so I'm not going to put a positive spin on this.

I won't speak of his mental toughness to overcome it, but I also don't see anything going on this offseason to suggest much will change.

I'd like to see MR go elsewhere and do well, and KP do well, etc etc.

But I'm not going to pretend I'm optimistic anything positive will happen next season and mostly agree.

It's likely KP and MR trade on and off starting and the offense struggles... people go back to hating MR, and KP holds onto the job at midseason by being Tomlin's version of Reek and continues his mastery of winning games ugly and protecting the ball.

Then Tomlin is happy to get his 9 and they don't look for another QB in the 2025 draft.

 

[Peat]

The age concerns I have about Kenny are around where he's at in his stage of development. Using the most extreme example would be like 28 year old 1st round QB Brandon Weeden back in 2012. He was basically a finished product. Obviously Kenny's not that old but how much more meat is there left on the bone for a soon to be 26 year old QB?

Mason is what he is, firmly on the backup QB trajectory after struggling in 2019. I'd argue Mason already did win the job last year after the team elected not to start a healthy Kenny in the playoffs.

Honestly my worst case scenario is Pickett makes a small but not meaningful improvement and we spend another year on the fence abut him.

Re meat on the bone - I look at the difference an OC can make in general, and I think there's clearly a ton of meat left on the bone for the Steelers even if Pickett doesn't improve a single iota.

I also think given the very fine margins involved in this league, even a small improvement in what he's doing could make a big difference.

I do worry about him leaving the team on the fence again though.

 

[pistolpete11]

I fully understand the "you need to find your franchise QB" stance, but I don't think it's wise to go all in on it every year. You still need to pick your spots.

IMO, it ain't there this year. Moving up to get one of the top 3 guys is going to be too expensive. Penix or McCarthy have as many questions as Pickett and Rudolph. Fields might be an improvement, but it's far from a sure thing, is going to cost a significant asset(s), and will be very expensive going forward if he does work out. Cousins is old, coming off a major injury, and is going to be very expensive.

Everyone has their question marks, including Pickett and Rudolph. But Pickett and Rudolph are the cheapest (money and assets) and even if it is faint, there's a flicker of hope with both. I think it's best to fix the O-line and give them a shot with a legitimate (even if you think underwhelming) OC. If neither take a significant step where you could see them being the guy and everything else seems to be clicking, THEN you get aggressive and make a move for a QB.

 

[MrBrightside]

Well there is almost zero chance they take a QB high in the draft, and the best option for a vet is one playoff win 35 year old with a torn Achilles that wants 35-40 million.

Oh, I'm resigned to the fact that the most likely QB's at any point for 2024 are:

1. Pickett
2. Tannehill
3. Rudolph

<big ass gap>

4. Someone else

I don't like it, but everything this franchise does is designed to win 9-10 games, no more and no less, and going with low risk, low upside guys is a great way to do just that.

 

[WickedWrister]

Not all draft analysts. A lot, but not all. I'm still struck by this (imo very prescient) profile from Zierlein -

"The top indicator for future success or failure will likely rest in a team's ability to build Pickett's trust, poise and discipline from the pocket. He can make all the throws, but he'll only be able to execute against disguised fronts and NFL pressure if he's willing to hang in and win with his eyes first. He carries a boom/bust label, but the 2021 tape and productivity showed off his potential to become a good starter in time."

In any case, I think people focus too much on age and not enough on NFL experience. Yeah, the younger kids carry longer development arcs and/or more room for improvement, but ultimately learning to play at NFL pace and with NFL habits requires experience.

Is he at the stage where you should know whether he can learn from that experience or not? Imo, he's right at the cusp. Him getting injured was hella annoying.

You left out the best part of Lance's write-up

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

I fully understand the "you need to find your franchise QB" stance, but I don't think it's wise to go all in on it every year. You still need to pick your spots.

IMO, it ain't there this year. Moving up to get one of the top 3 guys is going to be too expensive. Penix or McCarthy have as many questions as Pickett and Rudolph. Fields might be an improvement, but it's far from a sure thing, is going to cost a significant asset(s), and will be very expensive going forward if he does work out. Cousins is old, coming off a major injury, and is going to be very expensive.

Everyone has their question marks, including Pickett and Rudolph. But Pickett and Rudolph are the cheapest (money and assets) and even if it is faint, there's a flicker of hope with both. I think it's best to fix the O-line and give them a shot with a legitimate (even if you think underwhelming) OC. If neither take a significant step where you could see them being the guy and everything else seems to be clicking, THEN you get aggressive and make a move for a QB.

They definitely have to build out the O-line this spring and if KP doesn't show out next season, make a big move up in 2025 ala Chiefs and find a guy.

Oh, I'm resigned to the fact that the most likely QB's at any point for 2024 are:

1. Pickett
2. Tannehill
3. Rudolph

<big ass gap>

4. Someone else

I don't like it, but everything this franchise does is designed to win 9-10 games, no more and no less, and going with low risk, low upside guys is a great way to do just that.

So you are saying this is Tomlin Purgatory?

 

[T1K]

Because that's what they see?

The whole "you can't trust other teams' evaluation" thing makes no sense when you see the volume of what NFL staff (anonymously) say about other teams in the league and what they're saying what they do. If people were deliberately feeding bad ideas into the media, it'd look hella different. 95% of it is common sense.



I am all for aggression at QB but

a) You have limited development opportunities for these guys and a long development arc. Draft too many and you're wrecking your chances of it happening

b) More importantly, in this situation... I think most of us would like to upgrade on Pickett but the QB market is well known and the pickings are slim. There isn't a trade unless you like Fields. FA generally looks uninspiring. We're in a bad situation to draft. Sometimes the best thing to do is nothing and avoid making mistakes that make it harder down the line.



The weird all or nothing importance of QB in this league means I would answer yes and no at the same time.

I also think it's quite likely that if Pickett is a career backup, he doesn't do it here, which hurts the case for it being a good use of draft capital but then most late 1st rounders don't stick around past their rookie contract.



Not all draft analysts. A lot, but not all. I'm still struck by this (imo very prescient) profile from Zierlein -

"The top indicator for future success or failure will likely rest in a team's ability to build Pickett's trust, poise and discipline from the pocket. He can make all the throws, but he'll only be able to execute against disguised fronts and NFL pressure if he's willing to hang in and win with his eyes first. He carries a boom/bust label, but the 2021 tape and productivity showed off his potential to become a good starter in time."

In any case, I think people focus too much on age and not enough on NFL experience. Yeah, the younger kids carry longer development arcs and/or more room for improvement, but ultimately learning to play at NFL pace and with NFL habits requires experience.

Is he at the stage where you should know whether he can learn from that experience or not? Imo, he's right at the cusp. Him getting injured was hella annoying.

And there's also the element of the Steelers botching his game platform about as much as possible.



Oh gotcha. Would you trade up for a guy in round 2 that you hoped to trade back into round 1 for, but couldn't get it done? Or would you take your chances he keeps falling?

As for Herbert - I think he has done everything reasonable considering the dumpster fire around him.

Multi-quote sucks on mobile so breaking this reply into 2 points

1) Opinions of guys outside of the building are meaningless. Anonymous NFL sources don’t hold any weight with me.

2) Yeah if there was a guy they loved, then it’d make sense to trade up in rd 2 if they can’t get a deal done in round 1. It would sting a little to lose that 5th year option, but there’s only so many spots where you can trade back in round 1 so I get it if it doesn’t happen. I’m not sure there’s a guy this draft worth trading for, but in general I like the process of taking a QB in round 1.

Herbert is a tough one. It’s tough to put the blame on him, but at the same time he hasn’t elevated his team when it matters most.

 

[Peat]

You left out the best part of Lance's write-up

View attachment 816017

I don't think he was overdrafted and given the comparisons made, it's uncertain whether that personnel director would agree that his lock came true. He certainly didn't go first. He didn't even go top 10, which is what was predict by many. If anything, going by the mocks, he was a faller.

Imo, this whole "Pickett was a reach thing" is historical revisionism that's trying to treat an uncertain process with more certainty than it should have, and also glossing over the role development plays to a huge degree.

 

[MrBrightside]

So you are saying this is Tomlin Purgatory?

It's deeper than Tomlin, but yes. It's organizational purgatory. AR2 seems content with being reasonably competitive. Tomlin obviously is a guy who coaches in a fashion that leads to mediocrity. Khan and Weidel running it back with the same QB room would be another brick in that wall. It's everyone that matters in the organization until proven otherwise.

 

[WickedWrister]

I fully understand the "you need to find your franchise QB" stance, but I don't think it's wise to go all in on it every year. You still need to pick your spots.

IMO, it ain't there this year. Moving up to get one of the top 3 guys is going to be too expensive. Penix or McCarthy have as many questions as Pickett and Rudolph. Fields might be an improvement, but it's far from a sure thing, is going to cost a significant asset(s), and will be very expensive going forward if he does work out. Cousins is old, coming off a major injury, and is going to be very expensive.

Everyone has their question marks, including Pickett and Rudolph. But Pickett and Rudolph are the cheapest (money and assets) and even if it is faint, there's a flicker of hope with both. I think it's best to fix the O-line and give them a shot with a legitimate (even if you think underwhelming) OC. If neither take a significant step where you could see them being the guy and everything else seems to be clicking, THEN you get aggressive and make a move for a QB.

And with the gift of hindsight I don't think 2022 was that spot either considering you had two All-Pro/Pro-Bowl OL go within 5 spots after our pick.

I mean all we talked about last offseason was hoping that Kenny could make that important year 2 jump. He didn't. Now it's the year 3 jump. Maybe I'm being too premature but I'm about ready to call it. Not cut him because he's cheap, but kick the tires on Fields etc, or sign a backup with NFL experience like Winston or Tanne in the event that Pickett doesn't improve.

 

[Peat]

Multi-quote sucks on mobile so breaking this reply into 2 points

1) Opinions of guys outside of the building are meaningless. Anonymous NFL sources don’t hold any weight with me.

2) Yeah if there was a guy they loved, then it’d make sense to trade up in rd 2 if they can’t get a deal done in round 1. It would sting a little to lose that 5th year option, but there’s only so many spots where you can trade back in round 1 so I get it if it doesn’t happen. I’m not sure there’s a guy this draft worth trading for, but in general I like the process of taking a QB in round 1.

Herbert is a tough one. It’s tough to put the blame on him, but at the same time he hasn’t elevated his team when it matters most.

If opinions of guys outside of the building are meaningless, why bother reading our rubbish?

I like having them. I like having opinions from guys who are under the same stresses as the Steelers saying what they think. I think they're maybe the most useful accompaniment to just watching the game tbh.

And I'd also point out if we're just going by guys inside the building, then so far it's all pretty pro-Pickett...

And with the gift of hindsight I don't think 2022 was that spot either considering you had two All-Pro/Pro-Bowl OL go within 5 spots after our pick.

I mean all we talked about last offseason was hoping that Kenny could make that important year 2 jump. He didn't. Now it's the year 3 jump. Maybe I'm being too premature but I'm about ready to call it. Not cut him because he's cheap, but kick the tires on Fields etc, or sign a backup with NFL experience like Winston or Tanne in the event that Pickett doesn't improve.

Not just hindsight tbh. A lot of us wanted to punt the QB decision a year in 2022. Although I can't say I'm loving what that 2023 class had to offer either.

 

[WickedWrister]

I don't think he was overdrafted and given the comparisons made, it's uncertain whether that personnel director would agree that his lock came true. He certainly didn't go first. He didn't even go top 10, which is what was predict by many. If anything, going by the mocks, he was a faller.

Imo, this whole "Pickett was a reach thing" is historical revisionism that's trying to treat an uncertain process with more certainty than it should have, and also glossing over the role development plays to a huge degree.

We'll never know what grade every NFL team had on Kenny Pickett, but the fact of the matter is that there were several teams in our range (NO, TEN, WAS) that needed a QB that year and passed on Pickett in the 1st round.

I wouldn't say Pickett was a reach. Personally, he was my QB1 from that class. It was just a super weak class. Think its fair to say late 1st-early 2nd round grade on him was consensus.

 

[WickedWrister]

Not just hindsight tbh. A lot of us wanted to punt the QB decision a year in 2022. Although I can't say I'm loving what that 2023 class had to offer either.

I loved the Joey Porter pick and he's on an amazing trajectory but if that mayo eating mother f***er the Titans took 1 pick after us turns into a stud I'll be livid.

 

[Peat]

I loved the Joey Porter pick and he's on an amazing trajectory but if that mayo eating mother f***er the Titans took 1 pick after us turns into a stud I'll be livid.

We'd have wrecked him. I don't trust this team with project QBs at all.

Which puts me in the awkward position of simultaneously wanting this team to be not draft QBs as they'll screw it up and wanting them to draft QBs to force recognition of their weaknesses, and wanting them to focus on the QB they've got to force them to learn and and again wanting them to move on so we can learn whether they've learnt anything.

 

[Rossi Rat]

Serious question for any Pitt fan on here (and I know there are some of you who will likely prefer to just avoid this and I don’t blame you) - how bad does it suck to be a Pitt fan right now?

-Had one good year lead by Van Wilder at QB who luckily got drafted by the Steelers and now absolutely sucks and will be bagging my groceries this time next year

-3-9 season, lost your only good coach, hired a bunch of nobodies, had players transfer out, and absolutely getting your clocks cleaned by big brother Penn State taking the only recruits worth a damn right from your backyard

I don’t blame those recruits. I’m incredibly proud of them and the decision they made - they’ll be attending a world class institution where winning is actually normal.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

It's deeper than Tomlin, but yes. It's organizational purgatory. AR2 seems content with being reasonably competitive. Tomlin obviously is a guy who coaches in a fashion that leads to mediocrity. Khan and Weidel running it back with the same QB room would be another brick in that wall. It's everyone that matters in the organization until proven otherwise.

Obviously AR2 is clinging to the Steelers Way as an excuse to cut ties.

Kahn and Weidel didn’t draft KP, so if he busts it’s not on them.

Missing on a QB in the first sets an org back several years, so we can’t really be mad at those two for not fixing an issue that is technically still up in the air.

We’ll see if they do anything in 2025 if things remain the same as the last… seven years.

 

[T1K]

If opinions of guys outside of the building are meaningless, why bother reading our rubbish?

I like having them. I like having opinions from guys who are under the same stresses as the Steelers saying what they think. I think they're maybe the most useful accompaniment to just watching the game tbh.

And I'd also point out if we're just going by guys inside the building, then so far it's all pretty pro-Pickett...



Not just hindsight tbh. A lot of us wanted to punt the QB decision a year in 2022. Although I can't say I'm loving what that 2023 class had to offer either.

I like talking ball with like-minded people. I can’t think of a better place to talk about football than a hockey forum

 

[JTG]

I like talking ball with like-minded people. I can’t think of a better place to talk about football than a hockey forum

I haven't talked hockey here in years. This is the only thread I visit.