OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Congrats to KC, but Kelce was the real winner winning Swift

[WickedWrister]

Saw a completely unverified tweet that the Steelers were signing S Justin Simmons. He's probably the top option available, right? Don't love that he's 30, but 2nd team all pro 4 out of the last 5 years is impressive.

He’s unwilling to risk his streak and have a down year trying to develop a young QB and live with his mistakes.

What were these last 2 years with Pickett then?

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

This is my long held fear with Tomlin.

He’s unwilling to risk his streak and have a down year trying to develop a young QB and live with his mistakes.

Wilson coming in just reeks of his desperation to finally win a playoff game, but let’s not pretend he has some long term plan to make this team a contender.

Yea I feel you and I are the only ones who have noticed that Never Had A Losing Season (NHALS) is the most important thing to Tomlin

Tomlin knows that running MR and KP would risk that. So MR was told to kick rocks. And with this signing, it ensures KP doesn't see the field much.

NHALS is alive and well!
But yet again what is the opportunity cost: you have to let young QB's make mistakes and that means a ton of losing. Tomlin wants none of that. This is what I mean that these decisions are all linked to Tomlin and that's why this team will never win a SB with him. I've offered people to put money on that to challenge me, but no takers.

 

[Peat]

I mean, if Wilson isn't good like some people here are suggesting, shouldn't Pickett be able to beat him out? Especially at the salary and committment the Steelers gave to him here. If anything, I would expect the team to be biased towards Pickett and try to give him every chance possible to take the spot.

You seem to believe there will be an actual competition. I do not understand what about the Steelers' previous history with QBs makes you think that. Ditto Wilson's expectations on signing.

This is Wilson's job unless he stinks so bad it cannot be his.

 

[WickedWrister]

Pickett/Fields/Jones are all candidates that can be just as one and done as Wilson. I don't think they kick the can further down the road and they are at least attempts to find a guy, albeit hail mary attempts.

And Nix and Penix are straight up legit attempts to find the next guy if you believe in them. Should you? I dunno, but if they don't believe in Pickett, they have to do due diligence and they haven't.

Or they have done their due diligence and determined they are not in a position to grab one of the top QB's in this years draft, and have instead pivoted to the FA class.

Nix and Penix seem like Pickett 2.0 to me. Older, 2nd tier prospects that didn't excel until they were more physically developed/experienced than their peers.

And the Wilson signing still doesn't preclude us from taking one of them this year.

 

[Peat]

What were these last 2 years with Pickett then?

Him refusing to let a young QB develop by enforcing a highly conservative game plan.

Or they have done their due diligence and determined they are not in a position to grab one of the top QB's in this years draft, and have instead pivoted to the FA class.

Nix and Penix seem like Pickett 2.0 to me. Older, 2nd tier prospects that didn't excel until they were more physically developed/experienced than their peers.

And the Wilson signing still doesn't preclude us from taking one of them this year.

Unless this is the latest change with Khan, you know who the Steelers are looking at by their interviews and so on. They only did an informal with Nix. Maybe we'll see them suddenly look at them with pro days and formal visits, maybe Khan is doing a grand smokescreen but right now, they're not looking at those guys, they're not doing the due diligence of the visits and interviews, and they're not going take a QB with starting potential this year.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

What were these last 2 years with Pickett then?

Winning seasons (lol) that kept Tomlin’s streak alive.

He tried to develop KP and keep his steak alive by playing ultra conservative ball that went agt the nature of KP.

He did the same to MR and turned him into Charlie Checkdown, but he kept that streak alive in 2019 also.

Woot woot!

 

[xlm34]

What is that based on? He had a 98.0 passer rating last year with a 26-8 TD-INT ratio in 15 games. That's clearly above average.

Coincidentally, based on ESPN's points above average metric, Wilson was spot on average last year:

2024 NFL Season Leaders Total QBR | ESPN

Visit ESPN to view NFL Total QBR for the current and previous seasons

www.espn.com

I guess a couple reasons:

1.) Arthur Smith is not Sean Payton. Payton may be an ass but he’s also one of the best offensive minds in the game. Arthur Smith is…fine so I absolutely expect regression. I also think the pairing isn’t ideal (if there even is an ideal pairing with Wilson) since Smith seems to want his QBs to attack the middle of the field which we know Wilson doesn’t do.

2.) I don’t think surface level stats tell the whole story. Like I think passer rating is a crazy flawed stat. It doesn’t take into account sacks or fumbles and we know Wilson is always one of the most sacked QBs in the league. Some of the advanced stats don’t look at his last year as kindly. His EPA/drop back puts him in Gardner Minshew territory.

3.) I think it’s fair to expect an aging QB that’s reliant on his athleticism to continue to regress.

That’s what I’ve got off the top of my head. All of this handwringing over Wilson is irrelevant to me if there’s actually a QB competition, but I have my doubts on that.

 

[WickedWrister]

Him refusing to let a young QB develop by enforcing a highly conservative game plan.

Or alternatively, maybe we didn't have the skill at the position to run a more aggressive game plan.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Just throwing this out here:

35 year old Wilson: 26-8 TD-INT ratio, 66.4% completion%, 98.0 passer rating
35 year old Ben: 28-14 TD-INT ratio, 64.2% completion%, 93.4 passer rating

Granted Ben was much more of a gun slinger who threw a lot more passes, but I really don't think Wilson is this washed up guy. I'd put him at a roughly league average starting QB, one they're paying a vet minimum to.



If that's the case, you were probably not happy about how the team was handling Ben from about 2016 onwards.

Why do people defending Wilson always conveniently leave out yards per attempt? And Ben was declining by then, it was just masked by having a top 5 WR ever to carry the offense.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Chicago is so gonna get like a 4th or 5th for Fields.

Maybe we should do it, then.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Yea I feel you and I are the only ones who have noticed that Never Had A Losing Season (NHALS) is the most important thing to Tomlin

Tomlin knows that running MR and KP would risk that. So MR was told to kick rocks. And with this signing, it ensures KP doesn't see the field much.

NHALS is alive and well!
But yet again what is the opportunity cost: you have to let young QB's make mistakes and that means a ton of losing. Tomlin wants none of that. This is what I mean that these decisions are all linked to Tomlin and that's why this team will never win a SB with him. I've offered people to put money on that to challenge me, but no takers.

Ya it’s wild seeing the rewriting of MR career by so many fans.

In 2019 Tomlin turned him into Charlie Checkdown to protect the win streak and he developed a reputation as a guy with a weak arm that was afraid to push the ball down the field.

 

[WickedWrister]

I guess a couple reasons:

1.) Arthur Smith is not Sean Payton. Payton may be an ass but he’s also one of the best offensive minds in the game. Arthur Smith is…fine so I absolutely expect regression. I also think the pairing isn’t ideal (if there even is an ideal pairing with Wilson) since Smith seems to want his QBs to attack the middle of the field which we know Wilson doesn’t do.

2.) I don’t think surface level stats tell the whole story. Like I think passer rating is a crazy flawed stat. It doesn’t take into account sacks or fumbles and we know Wilson is always one of the most sacked QBs in the league. Some of the advanced stats don’t look at his last year as kindly. His EPA/drop back puts him in Gardner Minshew territory.

3.) I think it’s fair to expect an aging QB that’s reliant on his athleticism to continue to regress.

That’s what I’ve got off the top of my head. All of this handwringing over Wilson is irrelevant to me if there’s actually a QB competition, but I have my doubts on that.

His EPA/Play was 18th in the league, ahead of Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray.

3rd highest CPOE (completion % over expected) in the league last year behind only Purdy and Josh Allen. Denver threw a lot of designed screens and passes around the line of scrimmage last year, so his expected completion percentage was pretty high, but he surpassed it.

Posted this image a few times before:

The biggest thing is just the sacks. Took WAY too many last year.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Wilson likely a big upgrade over Pickett/Rudolph at negligible cost. Totally worth it to go this route.

 

[Peat]

Or alternatively, maybe we didn't have the skill at the position to run a more aggressive game plan.

There shouldn't be a maybe. Proper QB development involves giving the guy a proper chance to show whether he has it or not. It allows him to make mistakes and learn through them.

That never happened.

I also don't get giving the benefit of the doubt to a guy who gave his 1st round QB no 1st team reps in pre-season, then suddenly hurled him in after three and a bit games because his QB1 was stinking. That bit is textbook bad development, overly conservative then short-term by turn. Why believe the guy who did that was suddenly not making short-term, conservative decisions the rest of the time?

 

[xlm34]

His EPA/Play was 18th in the league, ahead of Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray.

3rd highest CPOE (completion % over expected) in the league last year behind only Purdy and Josh Allen. Denver threw a lot of designed screens and passes around the line of scrimmage last year, so his expected completion percentage was pretty high, but he surpassed it.

Posted this image a few times before: View attachment 834146

The biggest thing is just the sacks. Took WAY too many last year.

I’m seeing different numbers for EPA/drop back : QB Rankings | nfelo.app

You can play around with the filters but if you set the minimum pass attempt at 350, the only guys he’s ahead of are Fields, Ridder, Howell, Young, and Zach Wilson. And that’s in spite of having Payton as his play caller. That’s just not very encouraging to me.

 

[WickedWrister]

There shouldn't be a maybe. Proper QB development involves giving the guy a proper chance to show whether he has it or not. It allows him to make mistakes and learn through them.

That never happened.

I also don't get giving the benefit of the doubt to a guy who gave his 1st round QB no 1st team reps in pre-season, then suddenly hurled him in after three and a bit games because his QB1 was stinking. That bit is textbook bad development, overly conservative then short-term by turn. Why believe the guy who did that was suddenly not making short-term, conservative decisions the rest of the time?

I agree with your last point that we could've gave Pickett some pre-determined reps with the 1's back in camp in 2022. If the leash on Trubisky, was so short (3.5 games), then why didn't we try and prepare accordingly?

But the dude got 25 games to show he could improve and he didn't. He actually got worse. The onus is on him to prove that he belongs. Tomlin didn't give him shitty pocket presence and an inability to see wide open receivers. It's the NFL man, it's sink or swim.

I’m seeing different numbers for EPA: QB Rankings | nfelo.app

You can play around with the filters but if you set the minimum pass attempt at 350, the only guys he’s ahead of are Fields, Ridder, Howell, Young, and Zach Wilson. And that’s in spite of having Payton as his play caller. That’s just not very encouraging to me.

This is where I grabbed it from: rbsdm.com/stats

I know PFF has some stuff paywalled, but I refuse to pay for that shit.

 

[pistolpete11]

The best way I can put my objection is that's it's running on third and long to set up a punt, rather than actually trying to throw past the sticks.

Great analogy.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Poor Kenny Pickett, simultaneously the most pro-ready QB in 2022 and the oldest QB in 2022 and yet the guy who needed the most hand-holding apparently.

Oh well, compete and win a job.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

I agree with your last point that we could've gave Pickett some pre-determined reps with the 1's back in camp in 2022. If the leash on Trubisky, was so short (3.5 games), then why didn't we try and prepare accordingly?

But the dude got 25 games to show he could improve and he didn't. He actually got worse. The onus is on him to prove that he belongs. Tomlin didn't give him shitty pocket presence and an inability to see wide open receivers. It's the NFL man, it's sink or swim.


This is where I grabbed it from: rbsdm.com/stats

I know PFF has some stuff paywalled, but I refuse to pay for that shit.

Tomlin decided to keep Canada on for another season when anyone with half a brain knew it would be a colossal mistake.

Canada was then the first coach fired mid season by this org in like 80 yrs.

Again, this is the guy Tomlin trusted to keep developing his young QB?

People need to understand, no matter what they think of KP, that there is a massive elephant in the room here.

There’s zero evidence Tomlin understands how to develop a young QB, and he’s very likely to f*** up the next guy to.

Just have to hope they hit on some freak QB that Tomlin can’t f*** up too badly.

 

[Peat]

I agree with your last point that we could've gave Pickett some pre-determined reps with the 1's back in camp in 2022. If the leash on Trubisky, was so short (3.5 games), then why didn't we try and prepare accordingly?

But the dude got 25 games to show he could improve and he didn't. He actually got worse. The onus is on him to prove that he belongs. Tomlin didn't give him shitty pocket presence and an inability to see wide open receivers. It's the NFL man, it's sink or swim.

And the onus is on the coach to help him swim.

Which he didn't.

At no point did Tomlin give the green light for a non-conservative scheme designed to give a QB the best chance of developing. Tomlin's public stance was always "as long as we're winning I'm happy". To take it back to Jiggyfly's original post that prompted this discussion, at no point did Tomlin's actions with Pickett disprove the following:

He’s unwilling to risk his streak and have a down year trying to develop a young QB and live with his mistakes.

Tomlin was not willing to put developing a young QB over winning games.

And here's the thing.

That's not a defence of Pickett. I mean, it can form part of one if you want it to, but Pickett's fate and what Pickett deserves can be wholly independent of criticising Mike Tomlin's attitude to recruiting and developing the QB position.

Pickett is whatever, man. Pickett is effectively history barring a big twist.

But Mike Tomlin will be continuing to make QB decisions for the foreseeable. That should scare Steelers' fans. Everyone will have their own opinion as to where the flaw with Pickett lies, but I don't get how anyone can look at how this two years went and feel comfortable with the idea that Tomlin is part of getting the next one. He is too conservative, too short-termist, and seemingly too lousy an evaluator of talent at the position as well.

 

[MrBrightside]

If people really believe that anything and everything is hopeless because Tomlin/Sullivan will ruin it and/or mismanage it, why do you follow these teams at all? Why spend hours on message boards discussing it? This utter nihilism that excuses every player for Steelers/Penguins based on the head coach is simply absurd. YES, I WANT TOMLIN GONE. However, the idea that you should just throw up your hands and keep running a trash QB out there because he's coach and he'll screw up whomever the QB is quite the take. If you really believe it, I'd suggest finding a public library and spend the next several years finding other means of recreation.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

KP problems were many and a oc was just 1

 

[MrBrightside]

 

[WickedWrister]

I don't really care to do an entire post-mortem on Kenny, I guess we'll just have to disagree on who's at fault for how things turned out.

Nobody walks into a perfect situation (unless you're Brock Purdy). Sure, Kenny had an incompetent OC and a below average OL most of his time here, but he had a good running game, a plethora of offensive weapons, and a great defense to keep him in most games.

There's a lot of QB's in the leagues history that landed in FAR worse situations. And once again, this would be a different story if he was some raw top 5 pick that we had to suffer through a 6 win season to get.

 

[WickedWrister]

One of the top FA safeties off the board: