OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Congrats to KC, but Kelce was the real winner winning Swift

[Zirakzigil]

As I said before, either Tomlin does a piss poor job of evaluating QBs, or a shitty job of developing them.

He saw KP every day next door to him for years and really f***ed up hard on evaluating him with an advantage no other coach had with KP in his backyard, or he f***ed up his development.

There is no in between here.

None of that changes the fact that KPs now likely a head case and their best chance could be Mike Tomczak 2.0.

I was overly optimistic last off season, so much so I talked myself into the idea bringing back the worst OC I’ve seen in my lifetime could work.

Not falling into a silly ass trap like that again.

Reality is reality.

Well the good news to start is you won’t have to convince yourself MC as OC could work.

Pickett's problem isn't being a head case. It's simply not being good. The dude does not have a single impressive trait.

I don't think it's that important because it's not going to be the focus. The focus is going to be the running game, so we should do what we can to make that as successful as possible, and picking linemen is a two-fer for both the passing and rushing attack.

Kenny should be good enough to be able to take care of the ball and move the chains. If he is still struggling this season, that's a serious problem and I'm full on board replacing him immediately.


I would absolutely take that bet. He isn't good at football. Dotson was phenomenal here until they flipped him sides.

I think when it all shakes out, McCarthy is going to have a 2nd round grade on him. Could absolutely see him dropping like Levis did though.

Being intrigued by him and taking him in the first round are 2 different things.

He wasn't asked to do much at Michigan. Honestly, reminds me a lot of Pickett on the Steelers. We all hated that way to develop a QB for Pickett, so I don't think that's a great thing for McCarhty coming out of college either. I'd rather have a guy that was slinging the ball around in college even if he made a lot of mistakes. I think a guy like that is further developed.

Nope.

Just have to convince myself an incompetent coach who hasn’t won a playoff game in 7 yrs can do it with bizarro Mike Tomczak.

So far I don’t believe myself… if you can believe that.

They are, but if I was sufficiently intrigued, I'd want to see it happen... well, I'd want to see it happen on a team that understands QB development, because it is very true he's not been sufficiently developed yet. I'd be higher on taking him if you could draft him, then send him to the NCAA to a good program for a year.

But I think the collection of tools he's touted to have means he could be a top QB if developed right. My question to myself is where the draft profiles are overhyping him (probably yes).

McCarthy should have stayed at UM another year.

It was a crzppy class they took the consensus best Qb. The year before the only Qb that will see year 4 is Lawrence and even the jags have questions on him. Most classes have 2 Qbs that actually hit on average.


It was 1 score game in the 4th despite the turnovers this year with mason at qb if they don’t turn it over multiple times they could have won this year with NOD jr

You don't have to draft a guy just because he's the consensus guy. You're allowed to say pass. Plenty of other teams did. The Steelers signed Trubisky so they could do precisely that if needed.

So this isn't a reasonable mitigation. The Steelers had a choice and exercised it on Pickett. As Jiggy says, either the evaluation or the development are off.

Or potentially both.

Some people believe you just draft a sb every other year. Most teams don’t go from HOF Qb to another.

He’s in the 1st round discussion and his coach just left. His stock was likely never gonna be higher. Plenty of guys with 1st/2nd round grades have stayed the extra year and regretted it.

It would certainly be a risky move, but next year’s QB class looks pretty barren. If he stays another year and proves he’s more than just a game manager, he could earn himself a ton of money. And with NIL he wouldn’t be doing too bad for himself at UM.

Or like you said, he could go the Matt Barkley route and lose a ton of money.

He's almost unanimously viewed as raw and needing development. As others have pointed out, he was very limited in what he did at UM. He's mostly in the 1st round discussion because there are a ton of teams needing QBs this year (and the natty). Between all that and NIL ... it's easy to argue he'd be better served long term staying.

Dane Brugler said JC Latham is last year's Darnell Wright with more strength. Lolwut?

I so badly want to see them get a stud RT and then land Frazier in the 2nd round. My heart would stop.



He's hedging bets. Had Harbaugh stayed, the decision is obvious. If they hire a coach and McCarthy doesn't gel with him...he's tumbling down draft boards. He's going to take what he can get. He has potential to be an amazing value pick.

Oh, I get it. Both ways have valid decision paths. All boils down to what he wants.

But 21yr olds are pretty f***ing stupid.

I do prefer QBs in McCarthy's situation to stay. I get why the uncertainty of the situation encourages them to jump once they get the jump but for me staying is the best for their chance of hitting their ultimate ceiling. I like QBs who back themselves and put weight on that. Richardson shouldn't have left last year, McCarthy shouldn't leave this year.

But you can't really think about that if they're there and you love the traits.

I also think that people are putting too much emphasis on team need and that championship. He has a lot of desirable traits and NFL teams bet big on that.



Okay and meanwhile, away from strawman position land, it's accepted that it's difficult but -

Turning a 20 OA pick into a guy pretty much nobody has any optimism for by the end of year 2 is a bad outcome

And so is turning your third round pick with the first round grade into a guy who gets benched for a UDFA game manager in Y2 and isn't worth looking at for being a bridge QB by Y4.

And so too is drafting a guy in round seven and then releasing him after about 20 snaps in training camp if we're being thorough.

Three swings and three misses is a bad record. The fact that this record is punctuated by gobsmacking decisions like "hey, we don't need a QB coach to help develop the 3rd rounder we took" or "I know we basically anointed the kid as the future of the franchise but lets have him run with the thirds during training camp we don't need to actually prepare him to start just yet whoops this FA QB is awful lets just turf the kid in underprepared" suggests this is more than just the bounce of the ball.

Yeah we're not even going to have a shot at taking McCarthy lol

Click to read more...

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Here’s a fun idea that’s not status quo at QB or Fields-

Trade Pickett for 2/3rd round pick. Package that pick and 20OA to move up and draft McCarthy and sign Cousins.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Here’s a fun idea that’s not status quo at QB or Fields-

Trade Pickett for 2/3rd round pick. Package that pick and 20OA to move up and draft McCarthy and sign Cousins.

I don't think Pickett fetches more than a 4th. If even that.

Also, no to McCarthy.

 

[MrBrightside]

I don't think Pickett fetches more than a 4th. If even that.

Also, no to McCarthy.

I mean, Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold got 2nds so Pickett could get more than a 4th. But that idea is a non-starter for 10 different reasons.

 

[Peat]

Here’s a fun idea that’s not status quo at QB or Fields-

Trade Pickett for 2/3rd round pick. Package that pick and 20OA to move up and draft McCarthy and sign Cousins.

I think the sticking point there is signing Cousins if you're going to get McCarthy. He's meant to want two years fully guaranteed right? That doesn't align with having a guy who should be challenging for starting in Y2 minimum and I doubt Cousins would be all that happy about having that sort of heat. Might even ask about plans when signing.

I don't hate the plan entirely though (even though it's v hypothetical in my eyes) even if I think they'd somehow botch it.

 

[JTG]

The difference of view of Pickett between a bunch of people who watched the same games is wild. It's why sports is so captivating (and mind-numbing) even when the games aren't being played.

 

[T1K]

Here’s a fun idea that’s not status quo at QB or Fields-

Trade Pickett for 2/3rd round pick. Package that pick and 20OA to move up and draft McCarthy and sign Cousins.

I don’t think Pickett has any value on the trade market.

https://x.com/Ihartitz/status/1758203727192732150?s=20

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I think the sticking point there is signing Cousins if you're going to get McCarthy. He's meant to want two years fully guaranteed right? That doesn't align with having a guy who should be challenging for starting in Y2 minimum and I doubt Cousins would be all that happy about having that sort of heat. Might even ask about plans when signing.

I don't hate the plan entirely though (even though it's v hypothetical in my eyes) even if I think they'd somehow botch it.

I think it’s “hey Kirk here’s 70-80 mil guaranteed” and that’s his security. Don’t think McCarthy would have to start year 2 minimum. Green Bay sat Love and A-Rod for years and he’s very young.

Biggest issue to me is using a 1st and 2 rookie contract years while you pay a QB big bucks.

I don’t even necessarily think it’s a great idea, but it’s definitely one where you throw the kitchen sink at the most critical position in sports.

I don’t think Pickett has any value on the trade market.

https://x.com/Ihartitz/status/1758203727192732150?s=20

Eh even if you view him as a backup he’s a backup that has been able to win games. Can def see contenders interested along with QB needy teams. Imo he gets a late 2nd or a 3rd, and really don’t think he’d net worse than a 4th.

 

[xlm34]

I can’t see the Steelers trading him in a million years, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Denver would have interest if Pickett became available. Sean Payton has been complimentary of Pickett in the past.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I mean, Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold got 2nds so Pickett could get more than a 4th. But that idea is a non-starter for 10 different reasons.

Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold were much higher-regarded QB prospects. Both were in consideration at 1OA.

 

[T1K]

I can’t see the Steelers trading him in a million years, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Denver would have interest if Pickett became available. Sean Payton has been complimentary of Pickett in the past.

Yeah; it would definitely require a team to have a vision for him. Trey Lance got traded for a 4th so I guess Pickett is slightly better than him… at least he could get on the field.

 

[Peat]

I think it’s “hey Kirk here’s 70-80 mil guaranteed” and that’s his security. Don’t think McCarthy would have to start year 2 minimum. Green Bay sat Love and A-Rod for years and he’s very young.

Biggest issue to me is using a 1st and 2 rookie contract years while you pay a QB big bucks.

I don’t even necessarily think it’s a great idea, but it’s definitely one where you throw the kitchen sink at the most critical position in sports.

You don't have to start McCarthy Y2 but I'd expect him to start a conversation about that. It'd be annoying if he could and you had Cousins there taking up a bunch of money (it's also quite feasible that 36 year old Cousins fresh off of a big injury in a new system with new players kinda sucks and brings up the question too).

I'd also expect Cousins to have a couple of teams talking to him. Would they both offer him that contract? Maybe not, but if they do it'd be a tie breaker... and if they don't why do you want to win the bidding war for Cousins? I mean, I don't want Cousins for the sake of Cousins. If he's throwing the kitchen sink at the position, you need to throw the fridge at it. I'd want him to create a competitive winning environment with a good veteran mentor for McCarthy who might be the fridge. But if he comes at a cost that makes moving onto McCarthy complicated, maybe you want a different idea.

 

[Peat]

Also re Pickett's value - I'd hesitate to say he has no value as a guy who's won a bunch of games despite not a lot of production when we're talking about using a high 1st on a guy who's not really produced a lot at the NCAA but has won a bunch of games. There's a difference in tools but not to the point of one having extreme value and the other none.

Either we think NFL teams can be tempted to look past production if they think a guy has that winner gene or we don't. If we do, then I can see him having half-decent value.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

The difference of view of Pickett between a bunch of people who watched the same games is wild. It's why sports is so captivating (and mind-numbing) even when the games aren't being played.

I don’t doubt KP’s abilities, I doubt Tomlin’s competence.

If Tomlin drafts another QB high, I have little doubt he will botch that dude’s development as well.

That’s why MR wants a “fresh start” away from Tomlin, but we’ll see if the market is there for him.

 

[JTG]

I think if they can get a running game, the difference you are going to see with Pickett is going to be drastic. If they come out game 1 running the ball at will, they are using play action, and he still sucks...I'll grab a pitchfork too.

 

[Josey Wales]

Here’s a fun idea that’s not status quo at QB or Fields-

Trade Pickett for 2/3rd round pick. Package that pick and 20OA to move up and draft McCarthy and sign Cousins.

How Bout NO

 

[WickedWrister]

Yeah; it would definitely require a team to have a vision for him. Trey Lance got traded for a 4th so I guess Pickett is slightly better than him… at least he could get on the field.

I mean Trey Lance had traits that led to him being taken 3rd overall. Injuries have derailed his career trajectory but I don't know if he's the best comparison in trade value for Kenny. Cards were smart to trade Rosen after year 1 when teams still thought he had potential.

We can debate whether it's smart or not, but a lot of teams likely use their original draft eval in pro scouting and trade consideration. We'll never know for certain what grade every team had on Kenny, but we know at least a few QB needy teams that year (NO, WAS, TEN) didn't want to take him with their mid 1st round picks. I think it's fair to say there are teams that had a day 2 grade on him like the other QB prospects from that class. And that was back in 2022, which is to say his stock has undoubtedly fallen since then.

Like Baker Mayfield cost $5m and went for a conditional 5th and has shown way more than Pickett has. Josh Dobbs has been traded for a 5th multiple times. That's the kind of range I'm thinking we could get for him. Which we would be crazy to do since we only have 1 QB on the roster and he's still on a cheap rookie contract.

 

[T1K]

I mean Trey Lance had traits that led to him being taken 3rd overall. Injuries have derailed his career trajectory but I don't know if he's the best comparison in trade value for Kenny. Cards were smart to trade Rosen after year 1 when teams still thought he had potential.

We can debate whether it's smart or not, but a lot of teams likely use their original draft eval in pro scouting and trade consideration. We'll never know for certain what grade every team had on Kenny, but we know at least a few QB needy teams that year (NO, WAS, TEN) didn't want to take him with their mid 1st round picks. I think it's fair to say there are teams that had a day 2 grade on him like the other QB prospects from that class. And that was back in 2022, which is to say his stock has undoubtedly fallen since then.

Like Baker Mayfield cost $5m and went for a conditional 5th and has shown way more than Pickett has. Josh Dobbs has been traded for a 5th multiple times. That's the kind of range I'm thinking we could get for him. Which we would be crazy to do since we only have 1 QB on the roster and he's still on a cheap rookie contract.

Yeah, my point about Trey Lance is just playing devil’s advocate really. I don’t really understand the perspective of trading KP — he’s a fine backup.

 

[Peat]

We'll never know for certain what grade every team had on Kenny, but we know at least a few QB needy teams that year (NO, WAS, TEN) didn't want to take him with their mid 1st round picks. I think it's fair to say there are teams that had a day 2 grade on him like the other QB prospects from that class. And that was back in 2022, which is to say his stock has undoubtedly fallen since then.

One of the things I keep musing on as part of this is that Arthur Smith's job at this juncture is basically to prove he was an idiot in 2022 and should have taken Pickett in the 1st. If he turns Pickett into what he could be, then Pickett would have been a QB who could have saved his job in Atlanta. Fun times! I'd really love to see his thoughts post the pro-day. Got to think it came up in the interview. Feels like there's a good chance Smith came away with a positive impression which hasn't altered much since he took a job where Pickett's performance will be critical...

... which brings me to the point of doubting that his stock has universally fallen since 2022. I'm not going to claim I've got an inside line to what the talent evaluators like but I am dubious that they'll universally see his production as all him rather than a scheme based thing that can be cleaned up. I've seen enough people tear into the scheme after all. I suspect they really like his winning record and his record with the ball on potential game winning drives. They might be less optimistic on his overall ceiling than they were, but I feel confident that people with their livelihoods on the line feel less sunny about gambling everything on ceiling all the time.

In other words, I feel a good deal of doubt as to what other NFL teams would make of Pickett's performance this last couple of years.

Tbh I think the biggest knock on trying to get value for Pickett this year is there's an abundance of draft options. But even then, there's a fair few coaches in this league who don't really like relying on rookies.

 

[T1K]

One of the things I keep musing on as part of this is that Arthur Smith's job at this juncture is basically to prove he was an idiot in 2022 and should have taken Pickett in the 1st. If he turns Pickett into what he could be, then Pickett would have been a QB who could have saved his job in Atlanta. Fun times! I'd really love to see his thoughts post the pro-day. Got to think it came up in the interview. Feels like there's a good chance Smith came away with a positive impression which hasn't altered much since he took a job where Pickett's performance will be critical...

... which brings me to the point of doubting that his stock has universally fallen since 2022. I'm not going to claim I've got an inside line to what the talent evaluators like but I am dubious that they'll universally see his production as all him rather than a scheme based thing that can be cleaned up. I've seen enough people tear into the scheme after all. I suspect they really like his winning record and his record with the ball on potential game winning drives. They might be less optimistic on his overall ceiling than they were, but I feel confident that people with their livelihoods on the line feel less sunny about gambling everything on ceiling all the time.

In other words, I feel a good deal of doubt as to what other NFL teams would make of Pickett's performance this last couple of years.

Tbh I think the biggest knock on trying to get value for Pickett this year is there's an abundance of draft options. But even then, there's a fair few coaches in this league who don't really like relying on rookies.

Drake London over Kenny Pickett at 8 overall was certainly not a mistake, and regardless of Pickett’s performance next year nobody is doubting that decision.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think you can realistically make a claim for whether any other team would or wouldn't want to trade for Pickett. Pickett's results in the NFL have sucked, but there are a ton of shitty QBs in the NFL. For all of the crap Pickett gets from Steelers fans, there were 5 starters who had worse passer ratings than him last year (Dobbs, Howell, Wilson, Jones and Young) and a bunch of similar young guys that are in his general vicinity (Ridder, O'Connell and Levis are just above). He's not a good starting QB, but he's also not a uniquely terrible starting QB either.

Last year, you had guys like Wilson, Dobbs, DeVito, Browning, Zappe, Flacco and Minshew starting a notable amount of games due to injuries or bad QB talent on their teams. I think there would absolutely be interest in Pickett if he'd be made available, they'd likely only get a 3rd at best for him but I think there would be a market.

The tough thing to evaluate when it comes to player values for guys like Pickett is that I think his valuation depends entirely on what kind of role he's being acquired for. Let's look at Minshew as an example, he was really damn good for the Jaguars in his first 2 years in the NFL. The record isn't pretty (7-13), but he had a 37-11 TD-INT ratio, averaged 240 passing yards per game and had a 93.1 passer rating. He was traded for a 6th to be the Eagles' backup. On the other side, Rosen was heinously bad for Arizona (3-10 record, 11-14 TD-INT ratio, 160 passing yards per game and a 66.7 passer rating), but he was traded for a 2nd.

 

[Peat]

Drake London over Kenny Pickett at 8 overall was certainly not a mistake, and regardless of Pickett’s performance next year nobody is doubting that decision.

Arthur Smith got fired because he tried to make Mariota and Ridder work and couldn't, even with London and Pitts and Robinson.

If it turns out he can get a level of performance from Pickett that wouldn't have got him fired, I don't see what else to call it other than a mistake for Arthur Smith.

He could also potentially traded down and still got Pickett but that's neither really here nor there.

 

[T1K]

Arthur Smith got fired because he tried to make Mariota and Ridder work and couldn't, even with London and Pitts and Robinson.

If it turns out he can get a level of performance from Pickett that wouldn't have got him fired, I don't see what else to call it other than a mistake for Arthur Smith.

He could also potentially traded down and still got Pickett but that's neither really here nor there.

Smith got fired for underperforming in the weakest division in the league. I find it weird to bring up this hypothetical considering Pickett hasn’t shown that he’s any better than Mariota, Ridder, Heinickie. He’s very much on the same level as those guys, statistically speaking at least.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Arthur Smith got fired because he tried to make Mariota and Ridder work and couldn't, even with London and Pitts and Robinson.

If it turns out he can get a level of performance from Pickett that wouldn't have got him fired, I don't see what else to call it other than a mistake for Arthur Smith.

He could also potentially traded down and still got Pickett but that's neither really here nor there.

Smith wasn’t a big fan on kp in the draft process.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I don’t doubt KP’s abilities, I doubt Tomlin’s competence.

If Tomlin drafts another QB high, I have little doubt he will botch that dude’s development as well.

That’s why MR wants a “fresh start” away from Tomlin, but we’ll see if the market is there for him.

The wants a fresh start is pure speculation in his interview with Foster he said he wants to do business with khan and Tomlin but wants to see what free agency offers.
I wonder be surprised if the Steelers didn’t tell him go see what is out there and let us match so he gets a fair contract