OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Congrats to KC, but Kelce was the real winner winning Swift

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah I don't think you can draw any conclusions about Smith's past if he somehow fix Pickett's issues with the Steelers. Growth isn't always linear and players who may succeed in one situation may not succeed in another situation. Smith turning Pickett into a good QB in 2024 doesn't necessarily mean that Smith would have turned Pickett into a good QB in 2022 on a different team in a different role.

Coming out of college, I think Pickett and Ridder had very similar skillsets, but with Pickett just having an inflated draft ranking due to his strong senior season. They had very similar combine measurables and similar scouting grades (NFL.com had both Pickett and Ridder at nearly the same upside in their prospect scores), and both were known as more mobile type of QBs with some pocket vision problems. But now in the NFL, Ridder is super turnover prone and plays super aggressively while Pickett is basically the opposite. The two similar skillsets diverged in completely different directions, and I'd say 95% of that is due to coaching and situations that these guys ended up in.

If Smith can get Pickett to played an aggressive game more like Ridder but while maintaining his low turnover numbers, that would absolutely make Pickett at least a solid starting QB. But if Smith would have tried that 2 years ago with a rookie Pickett, Pickett would have just become what Ridder is/was for the Falcons. I think it's very unlikely that Smith can do that, especially considering he has never shown any prowess in developing QBs. But my point is that I don't think it would reflect on any past decisions of Smith if that were to somehow happen.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

The wants a fresh start is pure speculation in his interview with Foster he said he wants to do business with khan and Tomlin but wants to see what free agency offers.
I wonder be surprised if the Steelers didn’t tell him go see what is out there and let us match so he gets a fair contract

There’s enough smoke he wants out of Pgh.

The only question is if he gets a decent enough offer to leave.

If there are just shitty offers I’m sure he will just stay, but it’s pretty clear he doesn’t want to be in Pgh anymore.

 

[Peat]

Smith got fired for underperforming in the weakest division in the league. I find it weird to bring up this hypothetical considering Pickett hasn’t shown that he’s any better than Mariota, Ridder, Heinickie. He’s very much on the same level as those guys, statistically speaking at least.

Smith's job is to make that hypothetical come true.

Smith wasn’t a big fan on kp in the draft process.

Source?

Yeah I don't think you can draw any conclusions about Smith's past if he somehow fix Pickett's issues with the Steelers. Growth isn't always linear and players who may succeed in one situation may not succeed in another situation. Smith turning Pickett into a good QB in 2024 doesn't necessarily mean that Smith would have turned Pickett into a good QB in 2022 on a different team in a different role.

Coming out of college, I think Pickett and Ridder had very similar skillsets, but with Pickett just having an inflated draft ranking due to his strong senior season. They had very similar combine measurables and similar scouting grades (NFL.com had both Pickett and Ridder at nearly the same upside in their prospect scores), and both were known as more mobile type of QBs with some pocket vision problems. But now in the NFL, Ridder is super turnover prone and plays super aggressively while Pickett is basically the opposite. The two similar skillsets diverged in completely different directions, and I'd say 95% of that is due to coaching and situations that these guys ended up in.

If Smith can get Pickett to played an aggressive game more like Ridder but while maintaining his low turnover numbers, that would absolutely make Pickett at least a solid starting QB. But if Smith would have tried that 2 years ago with a rookie Pickett, Pickett would have just become what Ridder is/was for the Falcons. I think it's very unlikely that Smith can do that, especially considering he has never shown any prowess in developing QBs. But my point is that I don't think it would reflect on any past decisions of Smith if that were to somehow happen.

My two biggest points of disagreement here

a) The idea that Smith's scheme and teaching of it to a young QB is guaranteed to have the same result if they're at all roughly familiar regardless of fine details

b) The idea that what the Steelers have done makes turning Pickett into a success an easier task that it would have been drafting him somewhere else. At best it seems even. I think you could make a case it's harder (certainly many around here seem to think so) due to poor development.

If Smith's scheme and teaching works with Pickett, then it seems overwhelmingly likely it would have done so in 2022 as well. Either they understand each other and dovetail, or they don't. It's not like the Steelers have put noticeably more talented teams onto the field than the Falcons.

Also can't agree that Pickett and Ridder were very similar. Ridder was big time toolsy but raw with accuracy issues. So far what I've seen is that the accuracy issues are a big part of why it's going wrong for him. Pickett isn't super accurate but it was nowhere near the same issue.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I mean Trey Lance had traits that led to him being taken 3rd overall. Injuries have derailed his career trajectory but I don't know if he's the best comparison in trade value for Kenny. Cards were smart to trade Rosen after year 1 when teams still thought he had potential.

We can debate whether it's smart or not, but a lot of teams likely use their original draft eval in pro scouting and trade consideration. We'll never know for certain what grade every team had on Kenny, but we know at least a few QB needy teams that year (NO, WAS, TEN) didn't want to take him with their mid 1st round picks. I think it's fair to say there are teams that had a day 2 grade on him like the other QB prospects from that class. And that was back in 2022, which is to say his stock has undoubtedly fallen since then.

Like Baker Mayfield cost $5m and went for a conditional 5th and has shown way more than Pickett has. Josh Dobbs has been traded for a 5th multiple times. That's the kind of range I'm thinking we could get for him. Which we would be crazy to do since we only have 1 QB on the roster and he's still on a cheap rookie contract.

I agree with your take on Pickett's value. 19 teams passed on him and most would have gladly passed on him twice. He's considered a bottom tier QB with very limited potential.

If we do go for Fields, to save the sideshow of a Pickett backup situation maybe they'd ship Pickett + 2nd back to Chicago. Then sign Tannehill as the backup.

 

[T1K]

Smith's job is to make that hypothetical come true.



Source?



My two biggest points of disagreement here

a) The idea that Smith's scheme and teaching of it to a young QB is guaranteed to have the same result if they're at all roughly familiar regardless of fine details

b) The idea that what the Steelers have done makes turning Pickett into a success an easier task that it would have been drafting him somewhere else. At best it seems even. I think you could make a case it's harder (certainly many around here seem to think so) due to poor development.

If Smith's scheme and teaching works with Pickett, then it seems overwhelmingly likely it would have done so in 2022 as well. Either they understand each other and dovetail, or they don't. It's not like the Steelers have put noticeably more talented teams onto the field than the Falcons.

Also can't agree that Pickett and Ridder were very similar. Ridder was big time toolsy but raw with accuracy issues. So far what I've seen is that the accuracy issues are a big part of why it's going wrong for him. Pickett isn't super accurate but it was nowhere near the same issue.

As it stands right now, it’s easy to say his job is to develop Pickett because he’s the only QB on the roster. They’re going to bring someone else in. He has no allegiance to KP, he’s going to start the BPA.

At the 2 min mark he talks about Pickett specifically. He says they need to “build trust in each other”, could just be a throwaway comment, or he could mean this QB1 job needs to be earned.

 

[Peat]

As it stands right now, it’s easy to say his job is to develop Pickett because he’s the only QB on the roster. They’re going to bring someone else in. He has no allegiance to KP, he’s going to start the BPA.

The facts may change and when they do, I'll change my mind.

But Smith will start who he's told to start. His allegiance is who the Steelers tell him his allegiance is to. Given how consistently the Steelers have said things like the starter is on the roster, Kenny is QB1, we are extremely confident in Kenny, Kenny is a winner and so on, it is overwhelmingly likely that guy is Kenny.

I get why people want to believe the Steelers will be really aggressive about challenging Pickett but I don't get what about the Steelers' way of doing business and public utterances is leading anyone to believe that's what's going to happen.

 

[WickedWrister]

 

[bigdaddyk88]

There’s enough smoke he wants out of Pgh.

The only question is if he gets a decent enough offer to leave.

If there are just shitty offers I’m sure he will just stay, but it’s pretty clear he doesn’t want to be in Pgh anymore.

Sure but he isn’t even a top 3 backup spot bridge starter in Fa.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

The facts may change and when they do, I'll change my mind.

But Smith will start who he's told to start. His allegiance is who the Steelers tell him his allegiance is to. Given how consistently the Steelers have said things like the starter is on the roster, Kenny is QB1, we are extremely confident in Kenny, Kenny is a winner and so on, it is overwhelmingly likely that guy is Kenny.

I get why people want to believe the Steelers will be really aggressive about challenging Pickett but I don't get what about the Steelers' way of doing business and public utterances is leading anyone to believe that's what's going to happen.

They want Kenny to work but like smith said while he evaluated KP for the draft if KP doesn’t learn to play with people at his feet and thinks this is 7-7 like he did in college he is in a for a long season KP doesn’t let plays develop always bails out o his left and doesn’t understand nfl open or how to read defenses he doesn’t have 1 wow trait. Fields at least ca run mason has a beautiful deep ball

 

[Peat]

They want Kenny to work but like smith said while he evaluated KP for the draft if KP doesn’t learn to play with people at his feet and thinks this is 7-7 like he did in college he is in a for a long season KP doesn’t let plays develop always bails out o his left and doesn’t understand nfl open or how to read defenses he doesn’t have 1 wow trait. Fields at least ca run mason has a beautiful deep ball

Source?

 

[bigdaddyk88]

What New Steelers OC Arthur Smith Had To Say About Kenny Pickett In 2022

The Pittsburgh Steelers are putting QB Kenny Pickett and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith together this offseason. The latter is not even officially on the job yet. But their fates are now inextricably linked. Smith’s task is to get the most out of the former first-round pick. He should be...

steelersdepot.com

 

[xlm34]

Kind of backs up what a lot of us suspect. Everything coming out from anyone on the Steelers side is that Pickett is the guy for them this year.

 

[MrBrightside]

As I've said for weeks, I'll be very, very surprised if the QB room is anything other than Pickett, Tannehill, and a mid-round draft pick. I'll also be very surprised if they get QB play that's anything more than pedestrian at best out of that room.

 

[pistolpete11]

As I've said for weeks, I'll be very, very surprised if the QB room is anything other than Pickett, Tannehill, and a mid-round draft pick. I'll also be very surprised if they get QB play that's anything more than pedestrian at best out of that room.

....but can they get to 9 wins?

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Sure but he isn’t even a top 3 backup spot bridge starter in Fa.

We have no idea where he’s ranked by other teams and who will get re-signed, which is why it’s hard to speculate.

It’s a moot point though.

He clearly wants to leave and get away from Tomlin, but ironically because of Tomlin derailing his career for a QB like MT, he may be forced to keep playing for the guy.

That’s the entire point here.

Tomlin thought MT was a good QB.

KP went from an ultra confident guy in college to looking like Reek from GOT under Tomlin.

And MR knows Tomlin is the main reason his career was on the bubble.

Tomlin is once again either very poor at evaluating the QB position, or very poor at developing it.

Anyone in denial that this is a massive issue for this org has their head in the sand.

 

[JTG]

My only wonder right now is Tomlin's deal going to be more or less than 2.5 years?

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Yeah, my point about Trey Lance is just playing devil’s advocate really. I don’t really understand the perspective of trading KP — he’s a fine backup.

And KP has shown more than Lance. Realize it's "not much" but I'd rather have KP on this team than Lance

 

[Peat]

At the 2 min mark he talks about Pickett specifically. He says they need to “build trust in each other”, could just be a throwaway comment, or he could mean this QB1 job needs to be earned.

Returning at this part was edited in after I quoted -

Smith is talking about Pickett specifically because she gives a question specifically about Pickett, and she says she does so because Smith had mentioned him. Smith had brought up Pickett unprompted in the prior question when he's talking about how "its exciting here that this offence is built on a lot of young players, obviously, where Kenny Pickett's at, going into his third year". In light of everything else, I would treat Smith mentioning Pickett specifically by name - not talking about him as an example player, not mentioning any other QBs, not mentioning any other players - as confirmation that he knows who his QB1 is and who the offence will be built around.

I would also treat the Steelers PR woman seizing on him mentioning Pickett and framing a question around him as probably corroboration that's what the Steelers talk about him as internally.

And I don't think it's a throwaway comment and I don't think it's talking about having to earn QB1 either. I think you're getting Smith being sincere about the development process because after all, the question here specifically is "how are you going to start the process of helping Pickett take the next step that Rooney wants to see" (not quite exact wording but close).

And his wording goes "Well first off there's a relationship that's got to be built between the playcaller and the quarterback and there's a trust that needs to be built daily and that goes both ways, I've got to earn Kenny's trust and that goes vice versa"

And to me that wording says

a) Smith wants to hammer down first and foremost it's a people business
b) Putting earning Kenny's trust before the vice versa suggests he's not focusing on Pickett needing to earn his trust, but rather he's focused on giving Pickett a scheme and education he can believe in in order to get Pickett's best performance out of him

Maybe they'll surprise me but right now the only utterance out of any Steelers decision maker that leads me to think they might is Rooney saying they might trade for a guy. Everything else is consistently "Pickett is our starter don't expect it to change"

What New Steelers OC Arthur Smith Had To Say About Kenny Pickett In 2022

The Pittsburgh Steelers are putting QB Kenny Pickett and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith together this offseason. The latter is not even officially on the job yet. But their fates are now inextricably linked. Smith’s task is to get the most out of the former first-round pick. He should be...

steelersdepot.com

So he said something like that but a lot more neutral.

There’s enough smoke he wants out of Pgh.

The only question is if he gets a decent enough offer to leave.

If there are just shitty offers I’m sure he will just stay, but it’s pretty clear he doesn’t want to be in Pgh anymore.

Has there been any smoke other than that one media report that Rudolph wants a fresh start? I don't think any other media reports have run with that or Rudolph's added any fuel to the fire himself.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

We have no idea where he’s ranked by other teams and who will get re-signed, which is why it’s hard to speculate.

It’s a moot point though.

He clearly wants to leave and get away from Tomlin, but ironically because of Tomlin derailing his career for a QB like MT, he may be forced to keep playing for the guy.

That’s the entire point here.

Tomlin thought MT was a good QB.

KP went from an ultra confident guy in college to looking like Reek from GOT under Tomlin.

And MR knows Tomlin is the main reason his career was on the bubble.

Tomlin is once again either very poor at evaluating the QB position, or very poor at developing it.

Anyone in denial that this is a massive issue for this org has their head in the sand.

Mitch was a former 1st round pick who when we signed had another offer on the table.
Mason was a 3rd round pick who’s was fa no one offered him a back up role.
It’s easy to be confident in college especially when you the best wr in college and are older then everyone else

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Mitch was a former 1st round pick who when we signed had another offer on the table.
Mason was a 3rd round pick who’s was fa no one offered him a back up role.
It’s easy to be confident in college especially when you the best wr in college and are older then everyone else

I told you a couple years back MT was a mistake prone QB and Tomlin would be foolish to sign him.

You disagreed and told me how well he would run Canada’s system being a mobile QB, that Roth was the problem etc

So this isn’t hindsight on my part.

It was me actually watching MT and knowing he wasn’t a very good QB.

Yet Tomlin couldn’t see it?

He’s had three strikes so far with MT, KP and MR.

It’s a very disturbing trend.

He either again, can’t develop the position or can’t evaluate it properly.

I’m leaning towards the latter.

He actually thought bringing Canada back for another year was a good idea to develop KP and the dude became the first coordinator fired mid season by this org in like 80 years.

Reality is staring you in the face with Tomlin and you refuse to see it.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I told you a couple years back MT was a mistake prone QB and Tomlin would be foolish to sign him.

You disagreed and told me how well he would run Canada’s system being a mobile QB, that Roth was the problem etc

So this isn’t hindsight on my part.

It was me actually watching MT and knowing he wasn’t a very good QB.

Yet Tomlin couldn’t see it?

He’s had three strikes so far with MT, KP and MR.

It’s a very disturbing trend.

He either again, can’t develop the position or can’t evaluate it properly.

I’m leaning towards the latter.

He actually thought bringing Canada back for another year was a good idea to develop KP and the dude became the first coordinator fired mid season by this org in like 80 years.

Reality is staring you in the face with Tomlin and you refuse to see it.

Finding Qbs are not easy. The 49ers literally traded 3 1sts for lance and lucked into Purdy. The: dolphins haven’t paid tua yet and he is the best they have had since Marinio. Mcvay hasn’t developed a qb for the rams he traded for Stafford
Theres a reason Geno jimmy g and soon baker make over 25 million a season

 

[Peat]

Finding Qbs are not easy. The 49ers literally traded 3 1sts for lance and lucked into Purdy. The: dolphins haven’t paid tua yet and he is the best they have had since Marinio. Mcvay hasn’t developed a qb for the rams he traded for Stafford
Theres a reason Geno jimmy g and soon baker make over 25 million a season

This is a good point to bring up if talking about a 50% hit record, or if the Steelers' three shots had yielded a top 15ish starter but no more.

When we're talking a current three misses on three swings - four if you want to count spending a 7th on Oladokun only to cut him after 20 throws - then it's making excuses for someone who seems to find it less 'not easy' and more 'impossibly hard'.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Finding Qbs are not easy. The 49ers literally traded 3 1sts for lance and lucked into Purdy. The: dolphins haven’t paid tua yet and he is the best they have had since Marinio. Mcvay hasn’t developed a qb for the rams he traded for Stafford
Theres a reason Geno jimmy g and soon baker make over 25 million a season

You really think if the Steelers drafted Purdy and not KP, he would have turned into who he is now under Tomlin?

The man literally decided that the worst OC in my lifetime should be brought back to develop his young QB.

He also admitted he opened up the offense when MR did well not because he believed in him, but because he was desperate.

He was desperate because he thought MT was a good QB and that put him in a hole of his own doing.

How do you keep glossing over this shit?

 

[bigdaddyk88]

You really think if the Steelers drafted Purdy and not KP, he would have turned into who he is now under Tomlin?

The man literally decided that the worst OC in my lifetime should be brought back to develop his young QB.

He also admitted he opened up the offense when MR did well not because he believed in him, but because he was desperate.

He was desperate because he thought MT was a good QB and that put him in a hole of his own doing.

How do you keep glossing over this shit?

Purdy can actually process and read a defense and he is still barely a top 15 Qb. He is the 7th best player on his offense. He finished with the most passes in the playoffs that should have been intercepted. He was bailing out the pocket like crazy in the Super Bowl

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Purdy can actually process and read a defense and he is still barely a top 15 Qb. He is the 7th best player on his offense. He finished with the most passes in the playoffs that should have been intercepted. He was bailing out the pocket like crazy in the Super Bowl

Bro, he was most likely a missed extra point away from winning a SB agt maybe the best QB in the modern era.

Purdy is good. Very good. Just like I told you this summer.

And if he was under Tomlin his only NFL accomplishment would be getting drafted and spending a summer in an NFL training camp.

Today he would be a manager at Chucky Burger.