OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Congrats to KC, but Kelce was the real winner winning Swift

[Peat]

I would point out in response to the Fields stuff that Poles said today there's been no serious offers so far. I dunno that's 100% trustworthy, but obviously neither is the rumour, so...

 

[bigdaddyk88]

No way anyone should offer a 2nd for fields. You have to comitt 26 million to him over the next 2 seasons

 

[WickedWrister]

Maybe I have to hope I'm wrong soon but I don't see the upside. I will openly admit this is all report reading and stat watching but how often does a guy overcome what he's doing from this point in his career? It's Y3 and he's not one of the top 20 throwing QBs in the league. There's stats pointing to him being very badly when put in no pressure/clean pocket situations, which indicates there's only so much that improving his line will do. I think he's always going to make a bunch of mistakes.

I firmly see him as giving up valuable assets to prolong the misery.

Pickett is a year older and has played more games (college + pro) than Fields. This suggests he is further along in his development as a pro than Fields.

Fields has the single game rushing record for a QB and was like 50 yards from breaking Lamar's season long record. The upside is his elite athletic ability. QB's that can run 4.4 don't grow on trees.

As a passer, he's below average and takes an ungodly amount of sacks. We've shared tons of stats in this thread (EPA, QBR, PFF grade, etc). Some paint Fields as a better passer, others make Pickett look better. They're both negative EPA. I feel comfortable saying they're both bottom third of the league so far in their careers as passers.

Just on pure arm talent (strength, off platform throws) I also give the edge to Fields. Throws a better deep ball. That's just my opinion watching the two of them throw. The only thing Pickett is markedly better at is taking care of the football. Pickett has won more games but I don't consider that a QB stat. Accuracy is probably a wash.

In terms of upside I don't think it's even particularly close. Fields' vastly superior rushing ability and being a dual-threat trumps any slight advantage Pickett might have as a passer. And I think this is reflected in their expected trade value around the league. Fields is valued somewhere between a 1st and 2nd round pick, probably more like 2nd++. Pickett has negligible trade value.

 

[WickedWrister]

Just saw this from earlier and I didn't see anyone post it. Hope everything is okay with the Khan family.

 

[Peat]

Pickett is a year older and has played more games (college + pro) than Fields. This suggests he is further along in his development as a pro than Fields.

Fields has the single game rushing record for a QB and was like 50 yards from breaking Lamar's season long record. The upside is his elite athletic ability. QB's that can run 4.4 don't grow on trees.

As a passer, he's below average and takes an ungodly amount of sacks. We've shared tons of stats in this thread (EPA, QBR, PFF grade, etc). Some paint Fields as a better passer, others make Pickett look better. They're both negative EPA. I feel comfortable saying they're both bottom third of the league so far in their careers as passers.

Just on pure arm talent (strength, off platform throws) I also give the edge to Fields. Throws a better deep ball. That's just my opinion watching the two of them throw. The only thing Pickett is markedly better at is taking care of the football. Pickett has won more games but I don't consider that a QB stat. Accuracy is probably a wash.

In terms of upside I don't think it's even particularly close. Fields' vastly superior rushing ability and being a dual-threat trumps any slight advantage Pickett might have as a passer. And I think this is reflected in their expected trade value around the league. Fields is valued somewhere between a 1st and 2nd round pick, probably more like 2nd++. Pickett has negligible trade value.

There's a lot of things I think in reply to that but the big one is -

I don't care where Fields is in comparison to Pickett. I care about where Fields is in comparison to the QBs who make noise in the playoffs. That's what we're talking when we talk ceiling, right? If we're paying a 2nd and change for a guy, we should be confident in the ceiling.

And I don't see it.

Fields vs Pickett... I think I prefer Pickett, I think he has more smarts and I like his superior 4th quarter numbers, I think if you can wash the crud off of him from Canada he can be a better QB. But I might very easily be wrong. I hold that opinion lightly. I certainly think they're incredibly close, which is why I call them different dog same fleas.

Fields vs Allen or Burrow... yeah.

Maybe he is better than Pickett. But not by enough. Not if we're paying a 2nd. I don't see the point in only getting a bit better at QB. Get a lot better or save your money.

I would probably feel different about that if I believed in running QBs more. I think QBs only run that much when they're not good enough throwing, and I put throwing far above running. I don't want the second Lamar.

I'm not happy with Pickett. There was a point where I felt real gung ho about "they've gotta target a QB in rounds 1 or 2". That's cooled, partly because I don't feel good about the guys there vs their environment and partly because I tend not to bother hoping for things I won't get in sports, but he is probably the road to nowhere.

But so is Fields. He might be a shinier road, but it's the same road. The same low ceiling down to throwing and processing limitations.

Just with more rope.

This summer, vote for the less trusted evil.

p.s. I do also think that Fields' greater NFL experience is worth a lot and at the least equalises Pickett being older and having played more college games in terms of establishing runway left over.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

Fields is better than Pickett. But because of the history of success for players in his position, I wouldn't give more than a 4th in this year's draft. And then I would give a pick in next year's draft based on performance, like the Steelers win a playoff game etc, it move from a 3rd to a 2nd.

And the Steeler's don't have to pick up the 5th year option, they can let him play and see how it goes and then Franchise or Transition tag him. Yes, I know that is more money than the 5th year option.

IMO, the team that trades for him will work out a contract extension like the Jordan Love extension, 1 year/12mil or sign him to a 2 year extension that gives him a decent signing bonus today, aka money in his pocket now and then allows that team to get out of the contract in 2 years.

 

[WickedWrister]

There's a lot of things I think in reply to that but the big one is -

I don't care where Fields is in comparison to Pickett. I care about where Fields is in comparison to the QBs who make noise in the playoffs. That's what we're talking when we talk ceiling, right? If we're paying a 2nd and change for a guy, we should be confident in the ceiling.

And I don't see it.

Fields vs Pickett... I think I prefer Pickett, I think he has more smarts and I like his superior 4th quarter numbers, I think if you can wash the crud off of him from Canada he can be a better QB. But I might very easily be wrong. I hold that opinion lightly. I certainly think they're incredibly close, which is why I call them different dog same fleas.

Fields vs Allen or Burrow... yeah.

Maybe he is better than Pickett. But not by enough. Not if we're paying a 2nd. I don't see the point in only getting a bit better at QB. Get a lot better or save your money.

I would probably feel different about that if I believed in running QBs more. I think QBs only run that much when they're not good enough throwing, and I put throwing far above running. I don't want the second Lamar.

I'm not happy with Pickett. There was a point where I felt real gung ho about "they've gotta target a QB in rounds 1 or 2". That's cooled, partly because I don't feel good about the guys there vs their environment and partly because I tend not to bother hoping for things I won't get in sports, but he is probably the road to nowhere.

But so is Fields. He might be a shinier road, but it's the same road. The same low ceiling down to throwing and processing limitations.

Just with more rope.

This summer, vote for the less trusted evil.

p.s. I do also think that Fields' greater NFL experience is worth a lot and at the least equalises Pickett being older and having played more college games in terms of establishing runway left over.

Your first sentence...I mean the grim reality is that there isn't a move we can make at QB that will allow us to seriously compete with the Mahomes and Allen's of the AFC for at least the next 3 years. I say 3 years because that could be about the time TJ Watt could be in decline. I just simply think our defense is too good right now to allow us to bottom out and get in the draft range to take our next franchise QB. We had a bottom 5 scoring offense and still mustered 10 wins, although we got super lucky in one score games last year.

I view running it back with Pickett as basically just Madden auto-simulating the season and wasting another year of TJ Watt's prime. Pickett doesn't do anything at an elite level. Coupled with Tomlin's ultra conservative approach, and barring multiple season ending injuries to guys like TJ and Highsmith, I think we're a lock for like 8 wins which gets us no closer to finding that future franchise QB.

Fields, for all his flaws, at least has one elite ability: athleticism. I absolutely hated the Arthur Smith hire at first because it felt like the same old Steelers kind of move, but having a dual-threat QB only makes his offense more dynamic. Force teams to load up the box to stop Najee, Warren, and Fields designed runs, and then hit them with the play action deep to George. That makes sense and I can get behind that vision.

Like I'm not crazy enough to think getting Fields makes us contenders in the AFC, but we're back to my original point about the bleak future. I would rather us try something than do nothing. And I just don't view a 2nd round pick and $25m for that 5th year as really prohibitive.

 

[WickedWrister]

Get ready to put fries on your sandwiches, Jonnu.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Fields, for all his flaws, at least has one elite ability: athleticism. I absolutely hated the Arthur Smith hire at first because it felt like the same old Steelers kind of move, but having a dual-threat QB only makes his offense more dynamic. Force teams to load up the box to stop Najee, Warren, and Fields designed runs, and then hit them with the play action deep to George. That makes sense and I can get behind that vision.

I think the main argument for bringing in Fields relates to this. You'd basically be trying to recreate the Ravens' offense with bringing in Fields: a power run based offense with a running threat QB. You'd be relying on TEs and physical/slot WRs in the receiving game, but this team is by far focused on running the ball.

I think that's exactly what the Steelers should be doing, trying to mimic how Baltimore is set up offensively. If you want to do that, Fields is probably the best QB you can realistically get for that system.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Get ready to put fries on your sandwiches, Jonnu.

Funny...I came here to post the exact same thing.
Very likely he comes here. He and Muth would be a good duo

 

[Peat]

Your first sentence...I mean the grim reality is that there isn't a move we can make at QB that will allow us to seriously compete with the Mahomes and Allen's of the AFC for at least the next 3 years. I say 3 years because that could be about the time TJ Watt could be in decline. I just simply think our defense is too good right now to allow us to bottom out and get in the draft range to take our next franchise QB. We had a bottom 5 scoring offense and still mustered 10 wins, although we got super lucky in one score games last year.

I view running it back with Pickett as basically just Madden auto-simulating the season and wasting another year of TJ Watt's prime. Pickett doesn't do anything at an elite level. Coupled with Tomlin's ultra conservative approach, and barring multiple season ending injuries to guys like TJ and Highsmith, I think we're a lock for like 8 wins which gets us no closer to finding that future franchise QB.

Fields, for all his flaws, at least has one elite ability: athleticism. I absolutely hated the Arthur Smith hire at first because it felt like the same old Steelers kind of move, but having a dual-threat QB only makes his offense more dynamic. Force teams to load up the box to stop Najee, Warren, and Fields designed runs, and then hit them with the play action deep to George. That makes sense and I can get behind that vision.

Like I'm not crazy enough to think getting Fields makes us contenders in the AFC, but we're back to my original point about the bleak future. I would rather us try something than do nothing. And I just don't view a 2nd round pick and $25m for that 5th year as really prohibitive.

Fairy nuff.

I think the points of our disagreement are

a) I would rather they did nothing than do something that I think is a further mistake because

b) While it's unlikely we can make a move to compete with the best due to it being unlikely we bottom out any time soon, you can get lucky with a faller or moving up to 10/11. Getting Fields is a barrier to that imo

c) I don't regard athleticism as an elite ability for a QB, or at least not the way Fields has it and uses it. Josh Allen playing superman because he's so athletic that he's nigh unsackable and can make a throw off of nearly any platform and because his throw velocity is so good it makes up for some processing issues is elite athleticism I can get behind. Fields being Jackson? Pass, unless it turns out Fields is in fact a far better passer than Jackson (which he hasn't been so far). The style makes for great flat track bullies, but wilts against the best.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I want as many physical/slot WRs and receiving TEs as possible, so I'd be all for bringing in Smith. The only question is whether you have someone to fill that role already in Washington.

 

[Peat]

I think the main argument for bringing in Fields relates to this. You'd basically be trying to recreate the Ravens' offense with bringing in Fields: a power run based offense with a running threat QB. You'd be relying on TEs and physical/slot WRs in the receiving game, but this team is by far focused on running the ball.

I think that's exactly what the Steelers should be doing, trying to mimic how Baltimore is set up offensively. If you want to do that, Fields is probably the best QB you can realistically get for that system.

Didn't Baltimore just try to make themselves more of a passing team to try and increase their ceiling?

I want as many physical/slot WRs and receiving TEs as possible, so I'd be all for bringing in Smith. The only question is whether you have someone to fill that role already in Washington.

Washington being a serious receiving threat next season feels like a pleasant surprise rather than something to be counted on. If they want to play 2TE as much as it sounds like Smith wants to, then I think picking up a second do it all TE and having Washington and Heyward as depth - particularly if Heyward is used more at FB next season - sounds the smart call.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I want as many physical/slot WRs and receiving TEs as possible, so I'd be all for bringing in Smith. The only question is whether you have someone to fill that role already in Washington.

I don’t think Washington will have be a receiving threat he had less catches in college than Gentry in college and Zack played 2 seasons at Michigan

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

I want as many physical/slot WRs and receiving TEs as possible, so I'd be all for bringing in Smith. The only question is whether you have someone to fill that role already in Washington.

I have no clue what they plan to do with Washington. Seems like he's a glorified extra tackle. He has zero explosion in getting out of his stance. Maybe he can improve, but I just don't see him developing like I thought he would

 

[WickedWrister]

Funny...I came here to post the exact same thing.
Very likely he comes here. He and Muth would be a good duo

Yeah it's wild. Smith has been either his TE Coach, OC, or HC for 5 of his 7 NFL seasons.

Fairy nuff.

I think the points of our disagreement are

a) I would rather they did nothing than do something that I think is a further mistake because

b) While it's unlikely we can make a move to compete with the best due to it being unlikely we bottom out any time soon, you can get lucky with a faller or moving up to 10/11. Getting Fields is a barrier to that imo

c) I don't regard athleticism as an elite ability for a QB, or at least not the way Fields has it and uses it. Josh Allen playing superman because he's so athletic that he's nigh unsackable and can make a throw off of nearly any platform and because his throw velocity is so good it makes up for some processing issues is elite athleticism I can get behind. Fields being Jackson? Pass, unless it turns out Fields is in fact a far better passer than Jackson (which he hasn't been so far). The style makes for great flat track bullies, but wilts against the best.

Yeah I hear ya. Poles' comments make it sound it sound like we'll have a decision here pretty soon, so the speculation shouldn't be for much longer.

About B) I don't view spending that 2nd round pick as preventing us from getting our franchise QB this year unless you're super high on JJ McCarthy and want to use that as chip to move up for him. Of course you could always use that pick on another position, but I view QB as a primary need.

Think we just have a fundamental difference of opinion on C being an elite ability. He has the 2nd most rushing yards per game in NFL history for a QB.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I have no clue what they plan to do with Washington. Seems like he's a glorified extra tackle. He has zero explosion in getting out of his stance. Maybe he can improve, but I just don't see him developing like I thought he would

And he got drafted into an organization that is among the least likely to find creative ways to employ his skills and assets. Maybe Smith changes that but yeah I see no reason not to add Jonnu.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Didn't Baltimore just try to make themselves more of a passing team to try and increase their ceiling?



Washington being a serious receiving threat next season feels like a pleasant surprise rather than something to be counted on. If they want to play 2TE as much as it sounds like Smith wants to, then I think picking up a second do it all TE and having Washington and Heyward as depth - particularly if Heyward is used more at FB next season - sounds the smart call.

They lost in the playoffs because they stopped relying on their run game and tried to pass it too much.

 

[WickedWrister]

And he got drafted into an organization that is among the least likely to find creative ways to employ his skills and assets. Maybe Smith changes that but yeah I see no reason not to add Jonnu.

I'm not sure what the Smith hiring does for Connor Heyward. He's one of the few coaches that wants a true old school FB, and I think that experiment is over for Heyward. Jonnu is kind of a similar jack of all trades type TE, just way bigger.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I have no clue what they plan to do with Washington. Seems like he's a glorified extra tackle. He has zero explosion in getting out of his stance. Maybe he can improve, but I just don't see him developing like I thought he would

There’s a couple articles that said he could be the long term RT if he grew into

I'm not sure what the Smith hiring does for Connor Heyward. He's one of the few coaches that wants a true old school FB, and I think that experiment is over for Heyward. Jonnu is kind of a similar jack of all trades type TE, just way bigger.

They aren’t going to move on from connor while cam is around they are probably extending czm for another season or 2

 

[WickedWrister]

There’s a couple articles that said he could be the long term RT if he grew into


They aren’t going to move on from connor while cam is around they are probably extending czm for another season or 2

Nepo-baby battle between Derek Watt and Connor Heyward for the last roster spot?

 

[Peat]

Yeah it's wild. Smith has been either his TE Coach, OC, or HC for 5 of his 7 NFL seasons.


Yeah I hear ya. Poles' comments make it sound it sound like we'll have a decision here pretty soon, so the speculation shouldn't be for much longer.

About B) I don't view spending that 2nd round pick as preventing us from getting our franchise QB this year unless you're super high on JJ McCarthy and want to use that as chip to move up for him. Of course you could always use that pick on another position, but I view QB as a primary need.

Spending the 2nd doesn't prevent us from taking a shot at a franchise QB this year, although obviously you don't need that guy *and* Fields. And it seems highly likely they won't.

For me it's more about next year. Missing the player you'd have got with the 2nd might make the team that bit more reluctant to spend trade capital. More crucially, I think if they've spent something decent on Fields, they're less likely to bail on him for someone else. I think Pickett is out of rope without a major jump. I don't think a new guy is. That part of it is huge to me.

Think we just have a fundamental difference of opinion on C being an elite ability. He has the 2nd most rushing yards per game in NFL history for a QB.

Yeah but where has that got him? Where has being the best rushing QB of his generation got Jackson in the playoffs?

They lost in the playoffs because they stopped relying on their run game and tried to pass it too much.

They sure did but their run game hasn't got them anywhere much either. This year vs Houston was the only time they've scored more than 20 points in the playoff since Jackson got there. They have scored under 14 with with him starting in the playoffs as much as they've scored over 14.

 

[Peat]

I'm not sure what the Smith hiring does for Connor Heyward. He's one of the few coaches that wants a true old school FB, and I think that experiment is over for Heyward. Jonnu is kind of a similar jack of all trades type TE, just way bigger.

I don't think they even really tried to use him as a FB. Just like they didn't try to use Watt as a FB. Canada's been given FB or FB-esque options and gone "nah mate". I don't think Heyward is all that much lighter than some of the FBs in this league. So no real idea how this one goes.

Honestly I can see anything from "I love this guy, he gives me so much versatility in play action" to "he doesn't do anything well enough so I straight up replaced him".

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

I think the main argument for bringing in Fields relates to this. You'd basically be trying to recreate the Ravens' offense with bringing in Fields: a power run based offense with a running threat QB. You'd be relying on TEs and physical/slot WRs in the receiving game, but this team is by far focused on running the ball.

I think that's exactly what the Steelers should be doing, trying to mimic how Baltimore is set up offensively. If you want to do that, Fields is probably the best QB you can realistically get for that system.

The Steelers play an extremely risk adverse style of offense that leaves little room for error.

How exactly will one of the most turnover prone QBs in the league fit into that?

People need to remember what happened with MT and how he sunk them with his turnovers.

It will be much the same with Fields, except he puts the ball on the turf way more than MT ever has.

 

[OnMyOwn]

Are we ignoring last year? Because last year I don’t think he had that many fumbles. Two years ago when he rushed for so many yards and TDs, yea he fumbled a lot.

I like to assume professionals work on things like that over their career.