The New and Improved , Kyle Dubas Discussion Thread

[zeke]

Again, places like Montreal and Toronto don’t have the same luxury other cities have.
Time is not always the luxury you think you have.

You have to show something. 5 failures, with the last 2 being even more terrible than the first acceptable 3, is a downward spiral.
Throw in losing to Zamboni drivers, firing coaches, losing depth and the core is even more on the hot seat.

I know you love your stats, that’s great but if you have followed both cities I’ve mentioned, you know stats only get you so far. You must show something other than let’s just wait till they get it. People following the Leafs should know that. This isn’t Minnesota.

You know this. Another failure this year and the media/fans will crucify them.

The media/fans have already crucified them.

That doesn't change the fact that they are set up longterm better than pretty much any team.

 

[Stephen]

This sounds like something Kyle Dubas would say to try and keep his job. I'm sorry but when somebody has taken the best situation in the league and turned it into one of the worst in 2 short years you have to take the keys away before he drives it completely into lake ontario. No amount of patience is going to make Dubas any better at his job. No amount of caution is going to prevent this moron from digging the hole deeper. The fact that Keefe is still coach after his deer in the headlights freeze job in the playoffs tells you everything you need to know about Dubas and his ability to make this team better. Replace him with a potato and the team is much better off because at least the potato won't trade any draft picks so it can overpay people some more.

Yeah, I don't really like the job Dubas done all that much, but looking at previous big regime changes in Leaf Land, the JFJ/Fletcher/Burke was a disastrous yard sale which set the organization back significantly, and the Shanaplan was obviously premised on nuking things back to the Stone Age and starting over.

The next critical item is how to get Rielly signed and then be a competitive team while making improvements in playoff performances over the next few years. One thing Dubas has going for him is he seems to have built a good working relationship with the core. How do we tide over until the cap starts growing again?

I think the worst case scenario in the medium term would be a combination of 1-2 years of backsliding, a GM change and then the core guys starting to walk out the door at free agency.

 

[Stephen]

The media/fans have already crucified them.

That doesn't change the fact that they are set up longterm better than pretty much any team.

At the moment, we don't have a long term, since none of the Big 4 are signed for more than 4 seasons.

 

[Sypher04]

This sounds like something Kyle Dubas would say to try and keep his job. I'm sorry but when somebody has taken the best situation in the league and turned it into one of the worst in 2 short years you have to take the keys away before he drives it completely into lake ontario. No amount of patience is going to make Dubas any better at his job. No amount of caution is going to prevent this moron from digging the hole deeper. The fact that Keefe is still coach after his deer in the headlights freeze job in the playoffs tells you everything you need to know about Dubas and his ability to make this team better. Replace him with a potato and the team is much better off because at least the potato won't trade any draft picks so it can overpay people some more.

If you actually believe that you're completely out to lunch.

 

[Stonehands1990]

At the moment, we don't have a long term, since none of the Big 4 are signed for more than 4 seasons.

Players of that caliber almost never leave in free agency though historically. What we need is 34 & 16 to do what Crosby did and sign an 8 year extension for their current cap hit

I get frustrated with Dubas but I want him to see his vision through which means allowing his draft fingerprint to determine the makeup of the team. Hunter set us back and I’m happy with the drafting under Dubas. We were the only contender that was well represented at the juniors

 

[Dekes For Days]

High pressure Canadian markets, impatient ownership groups, short term mandate style management, heavy media scrutiny can all be cited as common Canadian market factors that can result in shorter GM terms.

Except there's no evidence that they even have shorter GM terms. The discrepancy referenced from that website seems to be more a result of improperly recorded data, and a lot of interim GMs in Canadian markets. For the record, 5 of the 6 other Canadian team GMs have been in their role for longer than Dubas, and the majority of them have been there 7+ years and still going, through much worse results.

 

[zeke]

At the moment, we don't have a long term, since none of the Big 4 are signed for more than 4 seasons.

1. 4 seasons is longterm.
2. Re-signing them is no problem, thanks to having no bad contracts.

 

[myleafs]

Zeke will give you stats, I'll give you the results of the eye test: yes. They hardly ever got running around in their own zone like a bunch of rodeo clowns under Keefe but it was commonplace under Babcock. I will give that to Keefe. His lack of adjusting and matching in the playoffs...not so much.

Babs d structure was horrible for a HOF coach, not to mention his dumbing down the offensive side of things. Stretch pass and icing anyone..over and over and over. (it was almost as bad as having a pk face off specialist run your high octane pp...*cough*) He was turning me off the game. When he started talkingabout himself in 3rd person I knew he had jumped the shark. Man I hated that guy and his style of everything he did on and off the ice.

Keefe not adjusting...I was kind of surprised by this. I thought he was brighter than that but he pulled the same shite as Babs. His Inability or unwillingness to switch gears or try something different was maddening. Not line matching was a head scratcher. Babs was an old dog who did not want to learn any new tricks. Jury still out on Keefe but the signs were not encouraging during the playoffs.

 

[socko]

Players of that caliber almost never leave in free agency though historically. What we need is 34 & 16 to do what Crosby did and sign an 8 year extension for their current cap hit

I get frustrated with Dubas but I want him to see his vision through which means allowing his draft fingerprint to determine the makeup of the team. Hunter set us back and I’m happy with the drafting under Dubas. We were the only contender that was well represented at the juniors

I don't think we got any more value out of Nick Foligno than we did Eemeli Rasanen.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Babs d structure was horrible for a HOF coach, not to mention his dumbing down the offensive side of things. Stretch pass and icing anyone..over and over and over. (it was almost as bad as having a pk face off specialist run your high octane pp...*cough*) He was turning me off the game. When he started talkingabout himself in 3rd person I knew he had jumped the shark. Man I hated that guy and his style of everything he did on and off the ice.

Keefe not adjusting...I was kind of surprised by this. I thought he was brighter than that but he pulled the same shite as Babs. His Inability or unwillingness to switch gears or try something different was maddening. Not line matching was a head scratcher. Babs was an old dog who did not want to learn any new tricks. Jury still out on Keefe but the signs were not encouraging during the playoffs.

Exactly how I feel.

 

[myleafs]

It's still one of the youngest elite cores in hockey. No bad contracts to worry about. Nobody signed past productive Age years. A very nice group of prospects in system.

They are golden longterm.

They could turn into something special and if they don't very soon, you are right in that other than JT, the big tickets can be moved if needed and would return a big haul. In that sense Dubas has done alright. No dead weight contracts. Whether Dubas has the stones to make the moves he will need to make if the ship doesn't right itself or at least show some progress in the near future is to be seen.

 

[Sypher04]

I don't think we got any more value out of Nick Foligno than we did Eemeli Rasanen.

And it’s not Kyle Dubas’ fault Nick Foligno got injured a few games after arriving here

 

[Mess]

At the moment, we don't have a long term, since none of the Big 4 are signed for more than 4 seasons.

Matthews and Nylander are both UFAs after 3 seasons and that might be D day. With Matthews having a full NMC in year #3 that might push decision to just 2 more seasons, because will you enter the last year with the potential he walks away for free?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Players of that caliber almost never leave in free agency though historically. What we need is 34 & 16 to do what Crosby did and sign an 8 year extension for their current cap hit

I get frustrated with Dubas but I want him to see his vision through which means allowing his draft fingerprint to determine the makeup of the team. Hunter set us back and I’m happy with the drafting under Dubas. We were the only contender that was well represented at the juniors

Doesn't mean it won't happen here, especially if we don't have a breakthrough very soon.

 

[myleafs]

Matthews and Nylander are both UFAs after 3 seasons and that might be D day. With Matthews having a full NMC in year #3 that might push decision to just 2 more seasons, because will you enter the last year with the potential he walks away for free?

I know this will not be a popular opinion but I don't think Matthews stays in Toronto and I wouldn't be surprised to see Nylander walk as well. I just don't get that vibe off of AM that he enjoys the stresses that come with being a leaf. (not many would) If he doesn't re up after 2 yrs they will have to trade him which should make for some very interesting conversation in here. Potentially our window may be very small with this group.

 

[Zybalto]

I agree that fans are going to be jaded and I would be right there jumping on the bandwagon if there wernt so many reasons why the post season has been difficult that are outside the bounds of where the blame is being directed. Fans are so angry that they are actually blaming the good parts of the team while ignoring the obvious problems, especially because two of the problems at the top of the list are legitimate excuses that dont allow fans to vent at the source of their problems.

(longish post incoming on the situation)

1. Has Toronto faced the best goaltending out of any first round team in the first round? The answer to this is undoubtedly yes, not because it was the Leafs playing in the first round but because they just happened to face the best goaltender of that particular playoffs in the first round. Three years ago, and even though they didnt win the cup, Rask's .934 all the way to the final was easily the best playoff goalie performance that year and maybe the best of his career. Did it suck to have to face him in the first round? Yea. He was the difference in a close series. 2 years ago, Korpisalo went on the best stretch of his career against both Toronto and Tampa playing way above his numbers while saddled with an underperforming Jackets team and even setting the playoff save record against the Bolts in a much closer series than the 5 game length showed (all games 1 goal games held together by him) Did it suck to face him in the first round? For sure. Last year, Price comes out of nowhere after a rough year and leads the Cinderella Habs to the final playing 30 points above his regular season. It sucked to face all these guys but it happened and the fact remains we have never had the better goalie in a series during this era.

2. Has Toronto faced the most adversity of any team due to losing players the last few years? There should be no denying this, especially last year when we had our best player (Matthews) with a bad wrist that looked ike it was affecting his shot and needed surgury, our Captain (who was coming into the playoffs on a tear) suffering a horrifying season ending injury in the first period of the first game, losing our best playoff dman (Muzzin) for the second year in a row during the series and our big playoff pickup (Foligno) missing games and playing hurt the entire series. 4 of the ten best players on the team were compromised last year to go along with being at a disadvantage in net.

These facts are truly maddening to those that are looking for blood after another first round loss.

Despite all that, run of play the last two years under Keefe has gone very much in favor of the Leafs. Whether its shots or scoring chances, the Leafs have excellent numbers that even exceed their playoff numbers and rank as one of the best teams of the first round in these areas. Keefe is actually one of the last people to blame (unless you really want to get on him about the PP). For all those decrying that "D wins championships" during the Babcock years, the Leafs have become one of the better defensive teams in the league to go along with their offensive firepower. In many ways, the last two years resemble what the Pens and Oilers have gone through with goaltending differential, depth issues and bad luck stopping the better team from winning a playoff series two years in a row.

One thing I really have to shake my head at is how Covid greatly affected the salary cap giving ammo to those who claimed Matthews and Marner shouldnt have received the contracts they did, despite the fact Matthews has largely lived up to the contract and Marner is pretty damn close(Nylander scoring some points against Price saved him the outrage but he was absolutely savaged in the past despite living up to his deal). Nurse and Hamilton getting close to 11 million each a season (which probably would have happened without the flat cap) would certainly have put things in better perspective. The facts coming out that Matthews needed surgery has quieted things a bit for Matthews and so the whipping boy left would be Marner who did have some rough parts in the playoffs but was overall a net plus for the team and certainly doesn't deserve the ludicrous treatment he's been getting from the fans (including somehow being labeled personally responsible for negotiating his contract when he 99% wasnt involved in) but even then, how did he perform?

For straight up production, Marner had 8 points in 12 games the last two years against said elite goaltending with an injured partner half the time. He also holds a positive goal differential during this time (a sign of just how good defensively he has been despite being snakebitten). Is that really so bad? Should he be the player folks are picking on to the point Leafs fans are rallying around him not making team Canada!? The Leafs top players take away all the other teams top checkers so why is he getting crapped on so hard for his 8 points in 12 games when depth scoring was so brutal.

Just check out this:

Matthews/Marner combined last 2 years vs mostly up against supposedly the best D in the league and one of the best defensive centers in the game:
Combined TOI: 508 minutes in 12 games
Points: 19
Combined even-strength goal differential: +4

Collection of underperforming depth players (Mikheyev, Brooks, Gauthier, Johnsson, Clifford, Nash, Engvall, Folgino, Thornton, Simmonds, Kapanen, ) against secondary players on those teams:
Combined TOI: 685 minutes in 12 games
Points: 6
Combined even-strength goal differential: -6

I think I know which direction the blame should be heading in (and here is the opening for Dubas criticism for not surrounding the Leafs stars with the right depth players).

But even after the injuries, the bizarre goaltending draws and underperforming depth players, how could you not blame the stupid giveaways as more of a reason the Leafs crapped out than any perceived problems with Matthews/Marner. Whether its Gally giving away a 2 on 0 in overtime to blow a game or Dermott bumbling another game away or Sandin coughing up backbreaking goals on giveaways or other examples, its hard to give your stars a chance to win games when your depth is helping out the other team so much....but I know...Marner accidentally flipped the puck over the glass.....how awful.



Quick thought to end here. How the hell did Stamkos, Point and Cup Finals MVP Kucherov win the cup last year (8-4 to close the playoffs) scoring a combined 30 points in their last 12 games while Nylander, Marner and Matthews combined for 31 points in 12 games the last two years (Toronto goes 5-7) and couldnt get out of the first round?

I think a healthy team that always wins the goaltending battle and had good depth scoring that didnt give games away had something to do with it.

Some of ya'll need to stop being so silly.

/rant over.

 

[ULF_55]

I don't think we got any more value out of Nick Foligno than we did Eemeli Rasanen.

So the question is whether he was really unhealthy when acquired, and who were the scouts watching him play?

One thing a GM cannot do is be in two places at one time, be in the GM box and being on the ice at the same time, scouting in Columbus and scouting in ...

If Foligno was injured after acquisition, that's just how it goes, if he was injured before that's on management.

So much of what happens off the ice is a team approach between different functions.
So much of what happens on the ice is a team approach between players and coaches.

Dubas is responsible for all that, and must address those issues whether it is advanced scouting, pro-scouting, amateur scouting, coaching or playing.

 

[Stephen]

Players of that caliber almost never leave in free agency though historically. What we need is 34 & 16 to do what Crosby did and sign an 8 year extension for their current cap hit

I get frustrated with Dubas but I want him to see his vision through which means allowing his draft fingerprint to determine the makeup of the team. Hunter set us back and I’m happy with the drafting under Dubas. We were the only contender that was well represented at the juniors

I'm not too worried about them leaving but with their contract lengths being what they are and what a struggle it's been to keep anybody at a lower tier, if you mix in a little losing and turmoil you never know.

 

[Stephen]

1. 4 seasons is longterm.
2. Re-signing them is no problem, thanks to having no bad contracts.

Matthews and Nylander are only signed for another 3 years which is the length of an ELC. Sequence would be a little better if Tavares was coming off first.

 

[Stephen]

Except there's no evidence that they even have shorter GM terms. The discrepancy referenced from that website seems to be more a result of improperly recorded data, and a lot of interim GMs in Canadian markets. For the record, 5 of the 6 other Canadian team GMs have been in their role for longer than Dubas, and the majority of them have been there 7+ years and still going, through much worse results.

List of Toronto Maple Leafs general managers - Wikipedia

Just look at the Maple Leafs for "evidence." Pat Quinn was a GM for 4 years. John Ferguson Jr lasted parts of 5 years with a lockout. Brian Burke lasted 3.5 years. Dave Nonis lasted 3 years. Lou Lamoriello lasted 3 years.

None of this is to say Kyle Dubas is on a "Canadian GM" shot clock or his time is up after this season, but the trends are pretty clear.

 

[PromisedLand]

Matthews and Nylander are both UFAs after 3 seasons and that might be D day. With Matthews having a full NMC in year #3 that might push decision to just 2 more seasons, because will you enter the last year with the potential he walks away for free?

Lets not forget another big AAV contract (Tavares) is aging; and with the way JT skates his game is not going to end up being pretty.

 

[Stephen]

Lets not forget another big AAV contract (Tavares) is aging; and with the way JT skates his game is not going to end up being pretty.

I think Tavares' current contract ending will be a positive, even if you generally like him and think he's a good player. He's welcome to stay after, but to get that $11 million off the books will be a breath of fresh air.

 

[PromisedLand]

I think Tavares' current contract ending will be a positive, even if you generally like him and think he's a good player. He's welcome to stay after, but to get that $11 million off the books will be a breath of fresh air.

Tavares is off the cap after both Matthews and Nylander; unless Tavares pulls a Kucherov in his last season I am not sure how that would work.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Lets not forget another big AAV contract (Tavares) is aging; and with the way JT skates his game is not going to end up being pretty.

He will be 34 when his contract is up. I don't think he will fall that far off. He is 30 now and is still producing around his career avg. However at around age 33/34 he likely won't be worth his 11M aav

 

[Zybalto]

The good news about Tavares is that he had a really good 2nd half and was up near the production leaders in the league during that time.

Hope theres no lasting effects.