The New and Improved , Kyle Dubas Discussion Thread

[justashadowof]

I'd also like to state that I really wanted to sign Tavares and was thrilled that he wanted to sign here. I didn't like the aav on his contract at the time and thought the plan was to squeeze the RFAs as much as possible following that signing. In hindsight it was a mistake signing him for that type of money and how the RFAs were handled after that doomed the team to lose its chance at a dynastic run. We are left holding our fingers crossed that everything falls in place one Spring.

 

[zeke]

John Tavares, Career Paces

Bold = with Leafs

Even Strength

18-19: 37gls/69pts (16:18)
13-14: 22gls/57pts (16:59)
11-12: 24gls/56pts (17:18)
20-21: 19gls/56pts (15:34)
15-16: 27gls/54pts (16:48)
14-15: 25gls/54pts (16:56)
12-13: 33gls/53pts (17:13)
19-20: 25gls/51pts (16:31)
17-18: 23gls/51pts (15:12)
16-17: 21gls/49pts (16:16)
10-11: 21gls/45pts (15:35)
09-10: 13gls/29pts (13:49)

So what actually happened here is that Tavares had a career year in his first year in Toronto, far better than anything he did in NY, despite getting less ice time. This is why some leafs fans think he is in "decline", even though each of the last 2 seasons has been right in line with his best NY years, despite getting even less ice time.

Power Play

13-14: 11gls/35pts (4:05)
14-15: 13gls/31pts (3:42)
17-18: 12gls/30pts (3:10)
12-13: 15gls/27pts (3:25)
19-20: 9gls/27pts (3:01)
09-10: 11gls/25pts (4:08)
10-11: 9gls/25pts (3:30)
11-12: 7gls/25pts (3:10)
15-16: 7gls/20pts (3:09)
18-19: 10gls/19pts (2:36)
16-17: 8gls/19pts (3:12)
20-21: 9gls/18pts (2:36)

The PP numbers have been lower overall, but again thats to do with less ice time because the leafs just don't get many PPs. And of course when leafs fans complain about his "decline" due to being "slow", they're not talking about the PP anyways.


I still remember the arguments had over Tavares pre-signjng with most everyone here pushing for it and talking about getting a "real #1C", that could push the "flawed" matthews down to sheltered usage. I remember laughing at this and pointing out that anyone that didn't see that Matthews was already better than Tavares ever was simply doesn't know hockey.

And then Tavares had that massive career year his first year with us and everyone thought that was what Tavares was - but that wasn't him. Its the guy we've seen the last 2 seasons - the legit stud #1C - that's what Tavares always has been.

 

[Zarley Zalapski]

I looked at the graph they provided, and it looked quite... odd. Luckily, they provided a breakdown of the data, so it was easy to see why.

They seem to have included a bunch of interim GM tenures... ones as little as a month while they were looking for actual replacements - which aren't really what we're discussing. They also rounded to the nearest year, so there's a bunch marked as having 0 tenure, and there's pretty significant portions of tenures being eliminated from existence for no reason.

They also took GMs that were employed at the time, and marked their tenure as the time they were hired until the time of that study, even if they remained with the team for years after that. For example, Lou is included and marked as having a 1-year tenure with the Leafs, which is obviously wrong.

So while interesting, not really sure your study's conclusion is accurate or relevant to our current discussion.

Yup, Lou ended up being employed by the Leafs for 4 years.... which coincidentally is the median tenure for GMs

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yup, Lou ended up being employed by the Leafs for 4 years....

Lou was actually GM for the pre-determined set timeline of 3 years; much less than the average or actual median GM tenure.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

This made me think of something: Am I right to think that most of the people in here saying we shouldn't have sign Tavares would have preferred Lou over Dubas as GM? If so, it's probably worth mentioning Lou went just as hard after Tavares as Dubas did.

I would say so. The posters that regularly trash Dubas use the Tavares signing as an argument against our cap situation because it snowballed into the Willy, AM and MM signings. Which i don't necessarily think its wrong since we have soo much money tied up into 4 forwards but some act like he is already declining (which he is not, still around his career avg). Its not like 30 other GMs wouldn't have jumped at the chance to get him. He had a limit of which teams he wanted to go to. Some weren't in a cap situation to get him. Plus I'm pretty sure Lou offered more for him to stay on the Island.

 

[Zarley Zalapski]

Lou was actually GM for the pre-determined set timeline of 3 years; much less than the average or actual median GM tenure.

The median tenure for a GM of a Canadien team is 3 years

 

[Stephen]

Did anybody catch Kyle Dubas' interview on the Bob McCown podcast a couple of days ago? It was refreshing to Dubas talk about how the onus is on the Leafs to take the next step, the vision, the difficulty in making the playoffs, preparedness to play the full 82 games and the playoff hump and plainly address the question of job security vs success.

Nothing earth shattering but nice to see topics like expectations, performance and consequences acknowledged in an open way straight from the source.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The median tenure for a GM of a Canadien team is 3 years

Not only is separating Canadian teams completely arbitrary, but that is also incorrect. See post #422 for some of the massive errors in the study you're referencing.

 

[zeke]

Asterisk = ELC contracts

Inherited Team ---> Current Team

Matthews * 21 -----> Matthews 24
Marner * 21 --------> Marner 24
Nylander* 22 ------> Nylander 25

Kadri 28 --------------> Tavares 31
Hyman 26 -----------> Mikheyev 27
JVR 29 -----------------> Ritchie 26

Bozak 32 -------------> Kerfoot 27
Marleau 39 ---------> Spezza 38
Brown 25 -----------> Kase 26

Gauthier* 23 ------> Kampf 26
Komarov 32 -------> Bunting 26
Martin 29 ----------> Simmonds 33

Kapanen 22 -------> Robertson 20
Leivo 25 ------------> Engvall 24
Johnsson 24 -------> Anderson 23


Rielly 24 ----------> Rielly 27
Gardiner 28 ------> Muzzin 32

Hainsey 37 -------> Brodie 31
Zaitsev 27 ---------> Holl 29

Dermott* 22 -------> Dermott 25
Borgman* 23 -----> Sandin* 21
Carrick* 24 -------> Liljegren* 22


Andersen 29 ---> Campbell 29
McElhinney 35 -> Mrazek 29


Dead Money

Horton 5.3 -----> none
Lupul 5.3 -------> none
Kessel 1.2 --------> Kessel 1.2

 

[Dekes For Days]

Asterisk = ELC contracts

Inherited Team ---> Current Team

Matthews * 21 -----> Matthews 24
Marner * 21 --------> Marner 24
Nylander* 22 ------> Nylander 25

Kadri 28 --------------> Tavares 31
Hyman 26 -----------> Mikheyev 27
JVR 29 -----------------> Ritchie 26

Bozak 32 -------------> Kerfoot 27
Marleau 39 ---------> Spezza 38
Brown 25 -----------> Kase 26

Gauthier* 23 ------> Kampf 26
Komarov 32 -------> Bunting 26
Martin 29 ----------> Simmonds 33

Kapanen 22 -------> Robertson 20
Leivo 25 ------------> Engvall 24
Johnsson 24 -------> Anderson 23


Rielly 24 ----------> Rielly 27
Gardiner 28 ------> Muzzin 32

Hainsey 37 -------> Brodie 31
Zaitsev 27 ---------> Holl 29

Dermott* 22 -------> Dermott 25
Borgman* 23 -----> Sandin* 21
Carrick* 24 -------> Liljegren* 22


Andersen 29 ---> Campbell 29
McElhinney 35 -> Mrazek 29


Dead Money

Horton 5.3 -----> none
Lupul 5.3 -------> none
Kessel 1.2 --------> Kessel 1.2

It's pretty amazing how much the defense has been improved in just 3 years.

 

[zeke]

It's pretty amazing how much the defense has been improved in just 3 years.

Yep. I guess I could see some argument that the 2nd line talent has been downgraded nut even that is a pretty tough sell when it's led by Tavares up the middle.

 

[egd27]

I'm in the group that initially wanted Tavares but now thinks it was a mistake. I'm also in the group that didn't want Dubas or Lou to be GM. In hindsight I would have taken Lou over Dubas.

Someone should record which group people are in. It's referred to all the time.

I'll see this and raise, I thought it was time for Babcock to go, but promoting Keefe was a huge mistake.

 

[Racer88]

I'll see this and raise, I thought it was time for Babcock to go, but promoting Keefe was a huge mistake.

It was a major mistake. Inexperienced president, inexperienced GM and inexperienced Coach…….what could possibly go wrong.

 

[Maple Leaf]

It was a major mistake. Inexperienced president, inexperienced GM and inexperienced Coach…….what could possibly go wrong.

Dubas will be fired soon enough

 

[justashadowof]

I'll see this and raise, I thought it was time for Babcock to go, but promoting Keefe was a huge mistake.

It's kinda obvious Keefe isn't a better coach than Babcock. He's Flanders' Beatnik parents in the playoffs: "We've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas."

 

[Zarley Zalapski]

Not only is separating Canadian teams completely arbitrary, but that is also incorrect. See post #422 for some of the massive errors in the study you're referencing.

Why do you presume it's arbitrary?

 

[zeke]

Goaltending since 16-17

Under Lou:

Andersen .918sv%, 127 decisions, 104pt pace
McElhinney .925sv%, 30 decisions, 96pt pace
Other .884sv%, 7 decisions, 47pt pace

Under Dubey

Andersen .911sv%, 132 decisions, 108pt pace
Campbell .920sv%, 28 decisions, 125pt pace
Sparks .902sv%, 18 decisions, 78pt pace
Hutch .901sv%, 26 decisions, 69pt pace
Other .874sv%, 4 decisions, 62pt pace

Its actually pretty amazing that Andersen had a significantly better record under Keefe than he did under Lou, despite far worse performance.

Also pretty amazing that the Leafs have a far better record with Campbell in net than they did with McElhinney, even though McElhinney put up better stats against much weaker (I.e. strict backup) competition.


Not sure I can blame Dubey for not pulling the plug on Freddy sooner, though maybe we can tbh......though he probably deserves more blame for relying too much on Sparks and Hutch.

 

[zeke]

Why do you presume it's arbitrary?

That's not a presumption - that's an honest observation.

 

[FiveHoleo]

It's kinda obvious Keefe isn't a better coach than Babcock. He's Flanders' Beatnik parents in the playoffs: "We've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas."

Awesome post, the guy froze like a deer in the headlights when the team needed him most to make a difference. I am so disgusted by Keefe and the fact he still has a job. Dubas just admitted on some podcast that he considered breaking up the core this offseason but didn't find any deals that would make the club better. If you're considering that move, but don't consider firing this joke of a coach you are damning the Leafs to failure and writing your own ticket to the unemployment line. There is no question things have gone steadily down hill since Dubas took over as GM, the wonderboy is in over his head. The problem with Dubas is that he's spent his entire hockey life as the young hockey prodigy, being told that his crap doesn't stink. Much like his players, he's developed that same sense of undeserved entitlement. Would Colorado hire him today?

 

[zeke]

Keefe is so much better than Babacock it's hilarious.

Babcock didn't improve team defense one iota his entire time here.

Keefe improved it instantly.

 

[aight]

Strongly disagree. Squeaking past MTL wouldn't be anywhere close to a decent playoff run. Since when is winning one round even "a run"?

Where I set the bar is easily handling MTL and whoever in the 2nd round, as expected and then either winning in the 3rd round, or at the very least, playing our hearts out and leaving it all out there as it were in round three. We fell waaaaaaaaay below those expectations so you tell me, was I setting the bar too high? Was it really your view going in that if we win one playoff round, that that would for you, constitute a "decent playoff run"?

Vancouver Canucks 19/20

 

[Stephen]

That's not a presumption - that's an honest observation.

Everything is arbitrary if you don't like the comparison. You can compare all GM shelf lives vs Canadian GM shelf lives and make a legitimate point either way: Canadian markets and ownership are more trigger happy and prone to be shorter and all GM's give you a bigger sample size including those super long tenures in small to mid market teams run by GM's with close relationships to mom and pop owners.

In the end, none of the history lessons matter other than the fact that MLSE probably has internal expectations and timelines which Dubas will have a good understanding of.

 

[zeke]

Everything is arbitrary if you don't like the comparison. You can compare all GM shelf lives vs Canadian GM shelf lives and make a legitimate point either way: Canadian markets and ownership are more trigger happy and prone to be shorter and all GM's give you a bigger sample size including those super long tenures in small to mid market teams run by GM's with close relationships to mom and pop owners.

In the end, none of the history lessons matter other than the fact that MLSE probably has internal expectations and timelines which Dubas will have a good understanding of.

Lol. What the hell relevance does "Canadian gm" possibly have?

 

[Stephen]

Lol. What the hell relevance does "Canadian gm" possibly have?

High pressure Canadian markets, impatient ownership groups, short term mandate style management, heavy media scrutiny can all be cited as common Canadian market factors that can result in shorter GM terms. It's about as relevant as citing league wide GM terms which includes guys like Poile, Lamoriello and Rutherford who literally had multiple decades to do whatever they wanted to in lower profile markets.

The reality is none of this really matters re: Dubas' job security because that's dictated by internal expectations and not historic averages.

 

[zeke]

High pressure Canadian markets, impatient ownership groups, short term mandate style management, heavy media scrutiny can all be cited as common Canadian market factors that can result in shorter GM terms. It's about as relevant as citing league wide GM terms which includes guys like Poile, Lamoriello and Rutherford who literally had multiple decades to do whatever they wanted to in lower profile markets.

The reality is none of this really matters re: Dubas' job security because that's dictated by internal expectations and not historic averages.

If anything, Canadian team management decisions over the last 3 decades are a clear lesson on what NOT to do.