The 2024-2025 Season: A simple calculation to keep Matthews and Nylander?

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The chance of Arizona having a fully completed and ready to play in arena by 2024 is probably close to 0%. They'll be lucky to secure a deal with the city by the end of the fall, let alone break ground anytime soon. A 20k person arena can't just materialize out of thin air lol



But it won't be like that....

Id the team literally has only 4 players under contract it would be literally unprecedented for anything other than expansion team to be on that position

Just to give people a sense of design timeline, approval process, procurement and construction, Little Caesars Arena’s architect was hired sometime in May 2012 and opening night was fall 2017. So you’re talking about 5.5 years and that’s probably with everything running smoothly. If the Coyotes started this process last year it’s probably going to take them till 2026-2027, well beyond 2024.

Stay with the Leafs, Matthews could have the money to be in Coyotes ownership one day.
 
It isnt that too much cap is the problem.. it will just be more of the same

Matthews/nylander/liljegren/sandin at that point.. what 30 million?
Tavares/marner/jarnkrok/reilly 31.5
Guess at the cap being neutral 84.5 last year affected by paying owners back

So potentially 23 million to sign
7 forwards
3 defence
2 goalies

Nevermind if any current players are kept.. but probably not
Bunting ?
Engvall ?
Robertson - rfa that summer
Muzzin/brodie re sign
Goalies

Probably more churn hoping to strike lightning
Now this post has some teeth to it.
 
But it won't be like that....

Id the team literally has only 4 players under contract it would be literally unprecedented for anything other than expansion team to be on that position

The problem all the large contracts Matthews, Nylander, Muzzin, Brodie and Murray all expire at the same time summer 2024 so their cap is in use until they expire.

Then you have to budget for the raises for Matthews and Nylander also so their cap space is only Temp until re-signed and then will consume even more than they do today = less cap space for others..

So all you have left is a bunch of lower level contracts lots of $2 mil or less players that will need to be replaced, but you won't have a lot of cap to spend.

Take Leafs defense where Muzzin ($5.625) + Brodie ($5 mil) + Girodano ($800k) + Lijegren RFA all end at the same time as Matthews and Nylander, so unless you are taking about rebuilding it next summer moving Muzzin and Brodie out and replacing them then until those deals expire you can't spend their cap on others/replacements. Both of Leafs current goalie contracts will have ended also and Murry also at same time as Auston.

So I'd be interested to hear how you see Leafs setting themselves up for a Cup competitive roster with almost no players under contract when AM and WN are re-signed,
 
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Now this post has some teeth to it.
Thinking a bit more.. what if bunting gets a contract.. lets be modest and generous and say 3.5 million

Lets say robertson gets the liljegren deal 2x1.4 and this is very modest because he could be a player this year with another elc year on top of that.

Lets say a kid makes it on defence call it 850k
Lets say a kid makes it on forward.. say 850k

6.7 for 3 forwards and a dman.. so that leaves 16.3 million for
4 forwards
2 defence
2 goalies

Will need atleast one stable true dman vet to help.. lets call him 4 million. Lets put 5 million on the goalie tandem again

So now 7.3 million for
4 forwards
1 defenceman

For a 20 man roster
 
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Just to give people a sense of design timeline, approval process, procurement and construction, Little Caesars Arena’s architect was hired sometime in May 2012 and opening night was fall 2017. So you’re talking about 5.5 years and that’s probably with everything running smoothly. If the Coyotes started this process last year it’s probably going to take them till 2026-2027, well beyond 2024.

Stay with the Leafs, Matthews could have the money to be in Coyotes ownership one day.
Exactly, he can retire to the desert as an Owner when he’s 35ish.
 
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I sure hope we have some success by the time the contracts of the expensive 4 come due because it would be a shame to pay them even more money for more first round failure
 
I sure hope we have some success by the time the contracts of the expensive 4 come due because it would be a shame to pay them even more money for more first round failure

I think we're looking at a middle roster shuffle over the next 1-2 years anyway with Muzzin, Brodie, Kerfoot, Kampf, Murray, Samsonov, Bunting, Engvall, Holl all coming off the books, representing something like a $24 million turnover in personnel. Obviously some will stay, but it does give the Leafs a chance to really remake the team as they wish as the Matthews/Nylander re-signings happen and then Marner the year after. (And probably Tavares too, but at a steep discount).
 
I think we're looking at a middle roster shuffle over the next 1-2 years anyway with Muzzin, Brodie, Kerfoot, Kampf, Murray, Samsonov, Bunting, Engvall, Holl all coming off the books, representing something like a $24 million turnover in personnel. Obviously some will stay, but it does give the Leafs a chance to really remake the team as they wish as the Matthews/Nylander re-signings happen and then Marner the year after. (And probably Tavares too, but at a steep discount).

So after Auston and Willy re-signed which looks like the same Core 4 + Rielly and a major roster overhaul.

XXXXX ---- Matthews --- Marner
XXXXX---- Tavares ------ Nylander
XXXXX --- Jarnkrok ----- XXXXX
XXXXX --- XXXXX ------- XXXXX

Rielly ------- XXXXX
XXXXX ----- XXXXX
XXXXX ----- Liljegren RFA?

XXXXX
XXXXX

Would you bring back all the core 4 if the Leafs still haven't found playoff success with that core 5 (include Rielly) configuration?
 
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So after Auston and Willy re-signed which looks like the same Core 4 + Rielly and a major roster overhaul.

XXXXX ---- Matthews --- Marner
XXXXX---- Tavares ------ Nylander
XXXXX --- Jarnkrok ----- XXXXX
XXXXX --- XXXXX ------- XXXXX

Rielly ------- XXXXX
XXXXX ----- XXXXX
XXXXX ----- Liljegren RFA?

XXXXX
XXXXX

Yeah, it's basically the Pittsburgh model of Crosby-Malkin-Letang... everyone else can come and go...
 
Yeah, it's basically the Pittsburgh model of Crosby-Malkin-Letang... everyone else can come and go...
Is that what you're selling Matthews on to staying in Toronto, its basically You and Mitch and Willy and Morgan and an aging JT and everyone else is interchangeable?

What if this group 3 Amigos and Mo Riells is already 0-6 in round #1 and with JT you're still 0-4 at present?

The next 2 years playoff results will really be pivotal if bringing the gang back is selling Cup competitiveness. IMO

8 more years of the same Auston, you in?
 
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Matthews isn’t going anywhere… he knows this team is much better than a first round exit.

Besides Toronto being his best chance to win the Stanley Cup… he knows he’s getting all the records and a bronze statue on Legend’s Row.

Bet he’s strolled through the Hockey Hall of Fame a few times since playing in Toronto too.
 
Is that what you're selling Matthews on to staying in Toronto, its basically You and Mitch and Willy and Morgan and an aging JT and everyone else is interchangeable?

What if this group 3 Amigos and Mo Riells is already 0-6 in round #1 and with JT you're still 0-4 at present?

The next 2 years playoff results will really be pivotal if bringing the gang back is selling Cup competitiveness. IMO

8 more years of the same Auston, you in?

The sales pitch is being the biggest star on the biggest team in the biggest market with a pay cheque to match - - and he's in the driver seat in a championship pursuit.

"All we can give you us... everything."
 
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The sales pitch is being the biggest star on the biggest team in the biggest market with a pay cheque to match - - and he's in the driver seat in a championship pursuit.

"All we can give you us... everything."
Auston is the biggest star on the Leafs and basically almost every team in the League if he were on another team.

Toronto is essentially asking Auston, pick us and carry us to a championship on your back and take the drivers seat, He isn't joining a championship team, he is making them a championship team by his presence.

You're also not selling him on Patriotism here, as this is Canada biggest team in Canada's biggest market so does that mean the same to Auston an American born in California and raised in Arizona, living in his home country in the off-season, about being a Canadian legend as it would if you gave that speech to Dougie Gilmour. Darryl Sittler or Wendel Clark or even John Tavares?

Wouldn't he be just as big a star if he won a championship in LA or Chicago or NY?

I could even see teams south of the border, saying come home Auston and become that National hero in your own country as one of America's greatest homegrown talents and best American players of all time and be that role model to grow the sport in USA for young kids. You would have to think part of Johnny Hockey and Matthew Tkachuk reasons for leaving the teams that drafted them in Canada and returning home to their own countries to start families and raise kids has to be related to place of birth in some form and reasoning. Would anyone blame him if he followed their lead?

Auston's career at present forces him to work in a foreign country and live only in Toronto during hockey season, but he set up base and lives in the States close to friends and family when on his own time. When he has choice to pick as a UFA and was his short term deal that takes him to this choice early a part of his last contract thoughts. If you wanted to be a lifetime Leaf then why 5 years and not 8 originally?

The money will make him the highest paid in the league on any team he picks as their offers would put him in that class and even higher than Toronto to lure him away and perhaps for better tax brackets and warmer climates and his preferred lifestyle.

Toronto is asking for loyalty from AM because of being the team that drafted him and has treated and paid him extremely well and is now hoping he stays and completes the task of bringing a Cup. :crossfing

Just some things to think about and time will tell how his all works out and lets hope for some playoff success in the next 2 years to make his choice harder of leaving a Cup competitive team if winning is a priority of his also.
 
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Matthews isn’t going anywhere… he knows this team is much better than a first round exit.

Besides Toronto being his best chance to win the Stanley Cup… he knows he’s getting all the records and a bronze statue on Legend’s Row.

Bet he’s strolled through the Hockey Hall of Fame a few times since playing in Toronto too.
They haven’t proven that they are actually better then a first round exit…….it’s 6 years in a row and counting……same result and a different excuse every time
 
Dubas should have signed Matthews to the 8 year contract and never touched Tavares. Sure Matthews didn't really deserve such a deal when he hadn't even hit 70 points yet, but if I was going to bet on someone he'd have been it. The talent was obvious.
Well guys get 8 million now before they hit 50 points. No one freaks out because Dubas didn't sign those deals.

Just to give people a sense of design timeline, approval process, procurement and construction, Little Caesars Arena’s architect was hired sometime in May 2012 and opening night was fall 2017. So you’re talking about 5.5 years and that’s probably with everything running smoothly. If the Coyotes started this process last year it’s probably going to take them till 2026-2027, well beyond 2024.

Stay with the Leafs, Matthews could have the money to be in Coyotes ownership one day.
Yep. Arenas take years. At this point, when would a shovel go in the ground? They are already going to need to extend that 3 year deal even if the new arena gets approved.
I've seen teams in crappy arenas waiting for construction completion many times. I've never seen this. They aren't even approved when they agreed to play there 3 years.
 
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They haven’t proven that they are actually better then a first round exit…….it’s 6 years in a row and counting……same result and a different excuse every time
But the teams often mentioned he'd go to are worse and are often missing the playoffs.
Feels like a double standard.
 
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Well guys get 8 million now before they hit 50 points. No one freaks out because Dubas didn't sign those deals.
Most don’t care what other teams do, most just care what the Leafs do, as they should.
 
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If you wanted to be a lifetime Leaf then why 5 years and not 8 originally?
Matthews was fine with 8. Toronto opted for keeping all of their star players and being able to build around them. 5 and 6 years are the most common high-end post-ELC terms for a reason, and it's not because everybody is leaving their original team. Toronto likely has a good understanding of what Matthews' intentions are, and every indication is that he wants to stay.
Most don’t care what other teams do, most just care what the Leafs do, as they should.
Understanding how things work around the league will help you be able to properly understand and evaluate things the Leafs do.
 
They haven’t proven that they are actually better then a first round exit…….it’s 6 years in a row and counting……same result and a different excuse every time
You could see it last year on Matthews face after another disappointing 1st round exit that losing is starting to tax him, as it now 6 straight years in a row and the longest playoff losing streak in the NHL.



Austin Matthews on another disappointing playoff loss

So he is not having a lot of fun, and its not like the team is going out and bringing in a lot of help to change the outcome either. He is carrying a lot of that weight on his shoulders.

I think this year's playoffs are huge and might be the turning point in his decision to stay or go as he heads into his final year. Same is true for the Leafs because with his full NMC kicking in July 1st 2023 the organization needs to know where he stands long-term as him walking away as a 26 year old UFA for nothing would set the Leafs back a decade or more. We could be facing the very same situation Calgary did with Matthew Tkachuk this summer.

Leafs winning a couple rounds would show progress and competitiveness and provide a strong reason to stay and finish the job, because the team is close to success.
 
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Matthews isn’t going anywhere… he knows this team is much better than a first round exit.

Besides Toronto being his best chance to win the Stanley Cup… he knows he’s getting all the records and a bronze statue on Legend’s Row.

Bet he’s strolled through the Hockey Hall of Fame a few times since playing in Toronto too.
Yes, perhaps that is true, but I wonder what his next contract will look like and how much he'll get paid. Not sure he's taking a discount if that's what people expect.

So, we will continue to have the same sort of roster construction where the top players get the bulk of the money and we struggle to find depth at ultra low prices.

I'd wonder what the reaction would be if we asked our stars/studs to take a discount so that they afford to pay a better supporting cast? Would they stay with the team if that were the case?
 
No star player should take a discount. 20 years ago Bobby Holik made 9 million per as a defensive centre. Revenue has gone though the roof since. NHL is the only sport where the salaries of stars has not gone up.
Pay Matthews his $. he's worth it. I doubt another COVID happens so cap keeps going up.
 
No star player should take a discount. 20 years ago Bobby Holik made 9 million per as a defensive centre. Revenue has gone though the roof since. NHL is the only sport where the salaries of stars has not gone up.
Pay Matthews his $. he's worth it. I doubt another COVID happens so cap keeps going up.
Holik signed pre-cap.
 
Regarding this thread title and it being 24/25

Who do we expect if anyone to be re signed in the next two seasons and how their mo ey will play into it

Bunting - if he even has 75% of last season production this year what is realistic to re sign and do we?

Engvall - this year.. if he replicates or even improves numbers is he the next mikheyev for 4.75 elsewhere

Kampf - replicates strong quiet season again, does he force himself into 3 million territory or more?

Robertson - expires 24/25. If he becomes a player this year and produces even modestly for 2 seasons.. what do we look at .. 2.5 on bridge or more long term

Liljegren - coming off 2x1.4 and assuming he continues to grow what type of structures do you look at .. 4 million medium term / 6 million long term

Sandin - same question but depends on this contract i suppose
 

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