The 2024-2025 Season: A simple calculation to keep Matthews and Nylander?

[Willchel Marlynder]

Honestly if we haven't put up a good fight in the Conference Finals by then I think one of two things is happening.

1. Matthews heads to the States
2. Nylander is traded/walks.

No way the 3 amigos all are on the Leafs in the future without some sort of playoff success. Matthews may not be here with or without it.

 

[socko]

I'd rather keep Kerfoot than Tavares. I think he works better with Nylander and obviously he's much cheaper and he can skate. I really don't want Tavares at any price beyond this contract. He's already entering Spezza territory, in fact I think Spezza was skating better than him.

 

[Uncus13]

Kerfoot over Tavares Roflmao.
Get your face outta Willie's lap.
Nylander is a blight just like his dad. Take something good and wrap it up and when you unwrap it you discover that it has been destroyed from the inside out.
It is all about willie and willie only.
Tavares isn't the problem with this team. The problem with this team is Dubas and Freelander. both are post monkeys ... not sure how they got there and damn sure they don't belong. so they keep their heads low take what they can and figure out how to manipulate this problem into their own personal success story.

 

[Mess]

Over the next two years I think we’ll see them add 2-3 year modest contracts that go beyond 2024, and once we get Matthews and Nylander all locked in, all they need to do is stick handle the 2025 season, re-sign Marner and give Tavares a pay cut (or the boot). Beyond 2025 it’s just run it back, run it back with a prime age, mature core. It’s just standard contender timelines and star player tactics.

So what it sounds like for over the last 1/2 a decade now Matthews, Marner , Nylander with Rielly is 0-6 in round #1 results and Tavares has joined them for the past 4 for 0-4 when you have 4 forwards using 1/2 your Cap.

Then in 2 years with Rielly already locked in is to re-sign all of Matthews, Marner and Nyander to new contract raises, and JT takes a pay cut to help cut into those cap costs and the band is all coming back for the next 6-8 years using up 1/2 of the teams cap again with just the very same 4 forwards.

For this plan to succeed I'd suggest this group better find playoff success in the next 2 years between the ending and re-signing years of contracts as its unlikely our new GM by then without playoff success will be fully on board. IMO

At what point in time has the experiment failed, and that it is proven you can't win in a salary Cap world with only 4 forward using up 1/2 a team cap? I'd suggest the next 2 will be the deciding ones.

Our Leafs always have it backwards it should be WIN first and then Sign big contracts second, when the model is sussessful and proven it works with this core player personnel. Leafs plan seems to be how do we get these players re-signed and lets see if they can win together, and to this point there is no concrete playoff evidence that is can.

 

[Dayjobdave]

So what it sounds like for over the last 1/2 a decade now Matthews, Marner , Nylander with Rielly is 0-6 in round #1 results and Tavares has joined them for the past 4 for 0-4 when you have 4 forwards using 1/2 your Cap.

Then in 2 years with Rielly already locked in is to re-sign all of Matthews, Marner and Nyander to new contract raises, and JT takes a pay cut to help cut into those cap costs and the band is all coming back for the next 6-8 years using up 1/2 of the teams cap again with just the very same 4 forwards.

For this plan to succeed I'd suggest this group better find playoff success in the next 2 years between the ending and re-signing years of contracts as its unlikely our new GM by then without playoff success will be fully on board. IMO

At what point in time has the experiment failed, and that it is proven you can't win in a salary Cap world with only 4 forward using up 1/2 a team cap? I'd suggest the next 2 will be the deciding ones.

Our Leafs always have it backwards it should be WIN first and then Sign big contracts second, when the model is sussessful and proven it works with this core player personnel. Leafs plan seems to be how do we get these players re-signed and lets see if they can win together, and to this point there is no concrete playoff evidence that is can.

The argument for running them back in future years is that because of cap increases due to us being allowed back in the rink, and to bet on games when we are not, is that they won’t take up half of the teams cap and the Leafs will have a mature in their prime core with a supporting cast that can win.

This would be awesome if it plays out because not only would we have a parade, but both sides of the team construction argument could say “I told you so!”

 

[Mess]

That seems reasonable.

In particular I suspect Muzzin, Holl and Kerfoot won't be Leafs come free agency 2023 which will give management a bit of playing around money

That is essentially what I've been saying only including more players that we know have contracts that expire in the next 2 years.

Defensemen Muzzin, Brodie, Giordano and Holl contracts all end before Matthews re-signing, as do both of Leafs goalies, and all of Leafs bottom 6 depth players with the recently signed Jarnkrok the only one under contract beyond 2024, along with Morgan Rielly.

Holl and Kerfoot contracts end before free agency 2023 so you are probably right they won't be Leafs this time next year. Same situation for Bunting, Engvall, Kampf, Simmonds, Aube-Kubel, Gaudette, etc and many of them might not be back beyond this next season.

That is were all those XXXXX ? marks come from as there is no certainty with expiring contracts as to who will be here when it comes time to re-sign Auston and Willy. However with that amount of roster turnover as you say "what looks like an expansion team" isn't the best situation for Leafs to be in to convince star players to hang around.

 

[NoTeeth]

I'd rather keep Kerfoot than Tavares. I think he works better with Nylander and obviously he's much cheaper and he can skate. I really don't want Tavares at any price beyond this contract. He's already entering Spezza territory, in fact I think Spezza was skating better than him.

How bad are we with Kerfoot as a #2 C? And he's now worth what 5.5 with his stats?

 

[Stamkos4life]

So what it sounds like for over the last 1/2 a decade now Matthews, Marner , Nylander with Rielly is 0-6 in round #1 results and Tavares has joined them for the past 4 for 0-4 when you have 4 forwards using 1/2 your Cap.

Then in 2 years with Rielly already locked in is to re-sign all of Matthews, Marner and Nyander to new contract raises, and JT takes a pay cut to help cut into those cap costs and the band is all coming back for the next 6-8 years using up 1/2 of the teams cap again with just the very same 4 forwards.

For this plan to succeed I'd suggest this group better find playoff success in the next 2 years between the ending and re-signing years of contracts as its unlikely our new GM by then without playoff success will be fully on board. IMO

At what point in time has the experiment failed, and that it is proven you can't win in a salary Cap world with only 4 forward using up 1/2 a team cap? I'd suggest the next 2 will be the deciding ones.

Our Leafs always have it backwards it should be WIN first and then Sign big contracts second, when the model is sussessful and proven it works with this core player personnel. Leafs plan seems to be how do we get these players re-signed and lets see if they can win together, and to this point there is no concrete playoff evidence that is can.

The definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result.

I find it unbelievable that so many leaf fans are fine with running it back for more seasons even though they have witnessed the last 4 years.

Also, like you mentioned, it seems strange how the Leafs give their stars big pay days before they have even won anything in the post season.

Dubas gave matthews $11.64 x 5 for a career high of 70 points and a weak playoff record. Imagine if AM was signed for 8 years at a reasonable cap hit, say 10.75 so that he is in the middle of eichel and mcdavid (which at the time of signing, he was). Then marner would be paid less and we would have both locked in for longer.

Dubas basically did as bad as he could've.

 

[NoTeeth]

The definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result.

I find it unbelievable that so many leaf fans are fine with running it back for more seasons even though they have witnessed the last 4 years.

Also, like you mentioned, it seems strange how the Leafs give their stars big pay days before they have even won anything in the post season.

Dubas gave matthews $11.64 x 5 for a career high of 70 points and a weak playoff record. Imagine if AM was signed for 8 years at a reasonable cap hit, say 10.75 so that he is in the middle of eichel and mcdavid (which at the time of signing, he was). Then marner would be paid less and we would have both locked in for longer.

Dubas basically did as bad as he could've.

Matthews, Marner, Nylander are 25 and 26. It's so dumb to make major changes. They just lost by a goal to Tampa in game 7 and had a goal taken away,

 

[notbias]

The definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result.

I find it unbelievable that so many leaf fans are fine with running it back for more seasons even though they have witnessed the last 4 years.

Also, like you mentioned, it seems strange how the Leafs give their stars big pay days before they have even won anything in the post season.

Dubas gave matthews $11.64 x 5 for a career high of 70 points and a weak playoff record. Imagine if AM was signed for 8 years at a reasonable cap hit, say 10.75 so that he is in the middle of eichel and mcdavid (which at the time of signing, he was). Then marner would be paid less and we would have both locked in for longer.

Dubas basically did as bad as he could've.

Colorado is insane for running the same coach and team back year after year when they kept losing in the second round. MacKinnon and Landeskog should have been out the door 4 years ago.

Washington should have traded Ovechkin and Backstrom, can't win with that core.

"Dubas gave matthews $11.64 x 5 for a career high of 70 points and a weak playoff record"

actually what happened

Dubas gave matthews $11.64 x 5 for a career high of 73 points in 68 games, 37 of those being goals, and one bad year of playoffs and two good ones.

 

[hamzarocks]

Colorado is insane for running the same coach and team back year after year when they kept losing in the second round. MacKinnon and Landeskog should have been out the door 4 years ago.

Washington should have traded Ovechkin and Backstrom, can't win with that core

both team did change up their cores and got different supporting pieces around them

Semin, Green, Varlamov were moved from the Caps

Oshie, Niskanen were added as core players

The Avs dealt Ror, Duchene, Barrie from their core

Got Kadri, Bura, Makar as replacements via the moves

The leafs core 5 is going for their 5th attempt at winning a round next year. Failing to do so needs to result in a core player moved out and a different core talent brought in

 

[notbias]

both team did change up their cores and got different supporting pieces around them

Semin, Green, Varlamov were moved from the Caps

Oshie, Niskanen were added as core players

The Avs dealt Ror, Duchene, Barrie from their core

Got Kadri, Bura, Makar as replacements via the moves

The leafs core 5 is going for their 5th attempt at winning a round next year. Failing to do so needs to result in a core player moved out and a different core talent brought in

I see a bunch of complimentary players, not really core pieces.

Toronto has moved on from players equivalent to what these other teams have, and brought in similar players.

Colorado has to be one of the luckiest franchises with how their roster turned out, a random terrible year for Makar and Mac signing a low deal cause he wasn't good at the time, then broke out, they didn't win because they changed up the core.

 

[Mess]

Dubas gave matthews $11.64 x 5 for a career high of 70 points and a weak playoff record. Imagine if AM was signed for 8 years at a reasonable cap hit, say 10.75 so that he is in the middle of eichel and mcdavid (which at the time of signing, he was). Then marner would be paid less and we would have both locked in for longer.

Dubas basically did as bad as he could've.

The biggest mistake in Leafs 100+ year history will be if a 26 year old Auston Matthews walks away for free, because a greenhorn GM didn't see the value in locking up perhaps the franchises best player to max term of 8 years, willing to risk it all, and then tried to fit all the other players around that as a secondary priority once the franchise player was secured.

The "We Can and We Will" sign all 4 might end up costing the franchise everything, and we are about to find out by summer 2024.

As a long suffering fan base when was the last time something worked out in Leafs favour? Likely tanking the Leafs to last place and then winning the draft lottery and drafting our franchise generational #1C player Auston Matthews. We might be coming around full circle here in the next 2 seasons and that has to be the biggest fear of all diehard Leaf fans (or at least it should be). Because Auston Matthews is the Toronto Maple Leafs and without him Leafs are heading for another rebuild.

The clock is ticking and this might be the last year we see Matthews in a Leafs jersey, because without playoff success or a long-term commitment from Auston after this next year, the organization might have no choice but to deal him away before his NMC kicks in July 1st, 2023, and cut their losses and regain some future assets as opposed to letting him walk away as a UFA a year later.

 

[NoTeeth]

The biggest mistake in Leafs 100+ year history will be if a 26 year old Auston Matthews walks away for free, because a greenhorn GM didn't see the value in locking up perhaps the franchises best player to max term of 8 years, willing to risk it all, and then tried to fit all the other players around that.

The "We Can and We Will" sign all 4 might end up costing the franchise everything, and we are about to find out by summer 2024.

As a long suffering fan base when was the last time something worked out in Leafs favour? Likely tanking the Leafs to last place and then winning the draft lottery and drafting our franchise generational #1C player Auston Matthews.

We might be coming around full circle here in the next 2 seasons and that has to be the biggest fear of all diehard Leaf fans (or at least it should be). Auston Matthews is the Toronto Maple Leafs and without him Leafs are heading for another rebuild.

So you're already stating he will turn down Leafs offer in July, 2023? Because Leafs are not waiting till July, 2024 to offer him a deal.
Mess, sometimes things work out. Just like you think that arena in Arizona is already a done deal.

 

[andora]

I see a bunch of complimentary players, not really core pieces.

Toronto has moved on from players equivalent to what these other teams have, and brought in similar players.

Colorado has to be one of the luckiest franchises with how their roster turned out, a random terrible year for Makar and Mac signing a low deal cause he wasn't good at the time, then broke out, they didn't win because they changed up the core.

Just wanted to mention Oshie.. he have not had a player similar to him, just one of those top six glue players

He was a guy you really didnt care about regular season, points etc.. once the playoffs began he would just be there, every shift, every scrum, every whistle.. timely goals.. just involved.

I dont think we have had that

 

[NoTeeth]

I see a bunch of complimentary players, not really core pieces.

Toronto has moved on from players equivalent to what these other teams have, and brought in similar players.

Colorado has to be one of the luckiest franchises with how their roster turned out, a random terrible year for Makar and Mac signing a low deal cause he wasn't good at the time, then broke out, they didn't win because they changed up the core.

No one wants to say this, but in the end, Colorado has a cup because they "Lost", then "Won" the Makar draft. No cup without that. Sometimes hockey can be cruel and something like that ultmately gets you a cup.
Hell, Washington is s post away from never reaching the finals with Ovie.

 

[hamzarocks]

I see a bunch of complimentary players, not really core pieces.

Toronto has moved on from players equivalent to what these other teams have, and brought in similar players.

Colorado has to be one of the luckiest franchises with how their roster turned out, a random terrible year for Makar and Mac signing a low deal cause he wasn't good at the time, then broke out, they didn't win because they changed up the core.

Semin was a ppg winger, Green a high scoring D who had multiple Norris final finishes.

Ror and Duchene were both core pieces. They were supposed to be the Avs 1C and 2C for the future. Avs dealt Duchene in 2018, Mackinnon broke out after that. He was still a ~60 pt player from 2014 to 2017 a lower scoring era than now before he broke out to a top 3/5 player in the world.

We haven't added a complimentary player as good as Burakovsky, Kadri, Toews etc

We haven't added a forward as talented as Oshie to our core and the D-man we added who is comparable to Niskanen (Muzzin) is getting washed before we won anything.

 

[Stephen]

So what it sounds like for over the last 1/2 a decade now Matthews, Marner , Nylander with Rielly is 0-6 in round #1 results and Tavares has joined them for the past 4 for 0-4 when you have 4 forwards using 1/2 your Cap.

Then in 2 years with Rielly already locked in is to re-sign all of Matthews, Marner and Nyander to new contract raises, and JT takes a pay cut to help cut into those cap costs and the band is all coming back for the next 6-8 years using up 1/2 of the teams cap again with just the very same 4 forwards.

For this plan to succeed I'd suggest this group better find playoff success in the next 2 years between the ending and re-signing years of contracts as its unlikely our new GM by then without playoff success will be fully on board. IMO

At what point in time has the experiment failed, and that it is proven you can't win in a salary Cap world with only 4 forward using up 1/2 a team cap? I'd suggest the next 2 will be the deciding ones.

Our Leafs always have it backwards it should be WIN first and then Sign big contracts second, when the model is sussessful and proven it works with this core player personnel. Leafs plan seems to be how do we get these players re-signed and lets see if they can win together, and to this point there is no concrete playoff evidence that is can.

I don’t disagree with the premise that the experiment hasn’t panned out the way they had envisioned. But I think lengthening the runway of Matthews, Marner, Rielly and maybe Nylander with a cap increase and a better supporting case beyond 2024 is the way to get the most juice out of this group.

I’m not a huge Tavares guy but if he was re-signed at a much lower cap hit, or his $11 million was turned into another superstar player that would be a big shakeup. Also, we will likely get better depth as a result of the cap going up, I want to see that group.

 

[Mess]

Just wanted to mention Oshie.. he have not had a player similar to him, just one of those top six glue players

He was a guy you really didnt care about regular season, points etc.. once the playoffs began he would just be there, every shift, every scrum, every whistle.. timely goals.. just involved.

I dont think we have had that

Sounds like you're describing Zach Hyman.

In 16 games playoff games with Edmonton this past season he recorded 11 goals which tied him for 3rd in playoff goal scoring with TB captain Steven Stamkos and AVS captain Gab Landeskog who battled it out for the Cup this year.

Maybe if the Leafs had kept him then maybe the Leafs with Auston would have defeated TB in round #1?

 

[andora]

Sounds like you're describing Zach Hyman.

In 16 games playoff games with Edmonton this past season he recorded 11 goals which tied him for 3rd in playoff goal scoring with TB captain Steven Stamkos and AVS captain Gab Landeskog who battled it out for the Cup this year.

Maybe if the Leafs had kept him then maybe the Leafs with Auston would have defeated TB in round #1?

100%

I was speaking in the context of the poster saying we have brought in similar players

We have let them leave yes.. hyman

 

[Mess]

I don’t disagree with the premise that the experiment hasn’t panned out the way they had envisioned. But I think lengthening the runway of Matthews, Marner, Rielly and maybe Nylander with a cap increase and a better supporting case beyond 2024 is the way to get the most juice out of this group.

I’m not a huge Tavares guy but if he was re-signed at a much lower cap hit, or his $11 million was turned into another superstar player that would be a big shakeup. Also, we will likely get better depth as a result of the cap going up, I want to see that group.

Maybe, but I'm not a big believer in this core 4 and certainly not at their current cap consumption.

But I say this somewhat selfishly for my own benefit as a diehard Leaf fan, that I'm only really concerned/hoping we get Matthews re-signed, and for whatever price it takes (as you can't erase past mistakes on not getting the 8 years), but this time get him full term, and then anyone after that is gravy in Nylander, Marner and Tavares as its a secondary concern.

Some might leave like Nylander via free agency, but as long a Auston is staying, its likely his pal Mitch is staying and then along with Rielly its essentially as you described it "the Pittsburgh model of Crosby, Malkin and Letang" and a endless revolving door of supporting cast. I think I'd rather take my chances on that model then the cap hell model of 4 forwards @ 1/2 you cap, which I don't think works and results currently support. IMO

So more of the same with only the cap money moving around (among the core 4) is not as appealing as it might be to others.

 

[NoTeeth]

Sounds like you're describing Zach Hyman.

In 16 games playoff games with Edmonton this past season he recorded 11 goals which tied him for 3rd in playoff goal scoring with TB captain Steven Stamkos and AVS captain Gab Landeskog who battled it out for the Cup this year.

Maybe if the Leafs had kept him then maybe the Leafs with Auston would have defeated TB in round #1?

Hyman was fantastic for Edmonton in the playoffs. But why was he such a dud for the Leafs in the playoffs for 5 years?

 

[WillyC]

Just a reminder… Auston wanted an 8 year deal and settled on 5.

The Leafs probably told him then… in 5 years, Mr. Matthews, you write your own 8 year cheque for whatever you want and play your whole career in Toronto.

I would bet that Auston Matthews himself believes he can win the Cup here in Toronto.

 

[NoTeeth]

Colorado is insane for running the same coach and team back year after year when they kept losing in the second round. MacKinnon and Landeskog should have been out the door 4 years ago.

Washington should have traded Ovechkin and Backstrom, can't win with that core.

"Dubas gave matthews $11.64 x 5 for a career high of 70 points and a weak playoff record"

actually what happened

Dubas gave matthews $11.64 x 5 for a career high of 73 points in 68 games, 37 of those being goals, and one bad year of playoffs and two good ones.

I honestly think there's people that would prefer leafs waive the white flag and blow it up right now. It's crazy.

 

[Mess]

Hyman was fantastic for Edmonton in the playoffs. But why was he such a dud for the Leafs in the playoffs for 5 years?

Kadri was another Leaf player that had a great playoff performance 16 games 7-8-15 points with 2 GWG, that wasn't shy to give a shout out to the Leafs GM what he thought of dealimg him away seen as the problem rather than solution.

Hopefully Auston Matthews doesn't catch on to the fact that to find playoff success like Naz and Hyman to a degree that you have to leave the Leafs to chase the Cup..

Perhaps like some have already figured out its the Leafs GM that can't put a winning team together, and/or the Leafs coach that gets outcoached each year, and that its actually management that is holding this team back, because its them that is learning on the job, and not players like Matthews.