The 2024-2025 Season: A simple calculation to keep Matthews and Nylander?

[thewave]

With another early exit from the PO. I don't think we have a shot at keeping either Nylander or Matthews. I mean that, basically .01% chance to retain. It makes zero sense to stay in Toronto and that's a fact jack. To deal with this media scrutiny, the worst airport in North America as well as some of the worst covid restrictions in the world. You've gotta be nuts to stay here.

Sorry, my hoenst opinion.

 

[Stephen]

Maybe, but I'm not a big believer in this core 4 and certainly not at their current cap consumption.

But I say this somewhat selfishly for my own benefit as a diehard Leaf fan, that I'm only really concerned/hoping we get Matthews re-signed, and for whatever price it takes (as you can't erase past mistakes on not getting the 8 years), but this time get him full term, and then anyone after that is gravy in Nylander, Marner and Tavares as its a secondary concern.

Some might leave like Nylander via free agency, but as long a Auston is staying, its likely his pal Mitch is staying and then along with Rielly its essentially as you described it "the Pittsburgh model of Crosby, Malkin and Letang" and a endless revolving door of supporting cast. I think I'd rather take my chances on that model then the cap hell model of 4 forwards @ 1/2 you cap, which I don't think works and results currently support. IMO

So more of the same with only the cap money moving around (among the core 4) is not as appealing as it might be to others.

I think it’s more the Big 2 in Matthews and Marner and the Optional 2 in Tavares and Nylander. Heavily skeptical of Tavares being in the mix as a key piece. Nylander is just how much production to cap hit but he’s a fine 4th forward.

 

[Mess]

With another early exit from the PO. I don't think we have a shot at keeping either Nylander or Matthews. I mean that, basically .01% chance to retain. It makes zero sense to stay in Toronto and that's a fact jack. To deal with this media scrutiny, the worst airport in North America as well as some of the worst covid restrictions in the world. You've gotta be nuts to stay here.

Sorry, my hoenst opinion.

I kind of get the feeling if anyone is walking its Nylander...

I think he feels he is getting short-changed in Toronto ... He always gets lumped with the core 4 but he is making $7 mil and not $11 mil like the others ,and blamed equally for team playoff failure.. He also walks in those other players shadows not getting the same recognition for his contribution. He could go somewhere else where he will be seen as a bigger star and play in a bigger spotlight and role.

When he plays for Sweden he is the star and even MVP of international tournaments.

Toronto is going to drive the Brinks truck to Matthews door and blank cheque to re-sign him, and Nylander will be a UFA at the same time and a secondary concern for even his own team and have to battle for his next deal and raise.

PS, Leafs would be in a much better cap position if Tavares and Matthews contracts ended together and then you could use JT expected pay cut to afford Matthews raise, and then know a year in advance what is left for Marner and Nylander to budget and plan for.

 

[NoTeeth]

Kadri was another Leaf player that had a great playoff performance 16 games 7-8-15 points with 2 GWG, that wasn't shy to give a shout out to the Leafs GM what he thought of dealimg him away seen as the problem rather than solution.

Hopefully Auston Matthews doesn't catch on to the fact that to find playoff success like Naz and Hyman to a degree that you have to leave the Leafs to chase the Cup..

Perhaps like some have already figured out its the Leafs GM that can't put a winning team together, and/or the Leafs coach that gets outcoached each year, and that its actually management that is holding this team back, because its them that is learning on the job, and not players like Matthews.

We didn't win squat with those two, They also didn't play very well.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Sounds like you're describing Zach Hyman.

Kadri was another Leaf player that had a great playoff performance

Hyman had 13 points in 32 Leaf playoff games, and at least one of those points was incorrectly attributed to him.
Kadri had 10 points in 19 Leaf playoff games, and had two consecutive playoff suspensions.

 

[Leaf Fans]

The definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result.

I find it unbelievable that so many leaf fans are fine with running it back for more seasons even though they have witnessed the last 4 years.

Also, like you mentioned, it seems strange how the Leafs give their stars big pay days before they have even won anything in the post season.

Dubas gave matthews $11.64 x 5 for a career high of 70 points and a weak playoff record. Imagine if AM was signed for 8 years at a reasonable cap hit, say 10.75 so that he is in the middle of eichel and mcdavid (which at the time of signing, he was). Then marner would be paid less and we would have both locked in for longer.

Dubas basically did as bad as he could've.

That is one definition of insanity. It is Rita Mae Brown's definition, but there many more.
However, Dubas has kept the vore towards together, but has made changes everywhere else on the team. So they are not doing the same thing over again anyway.
Yes, Dubas gave contracts anticipating more in the future, and he was right. It is not that unusual just last year Hughes got 8M after a career high 31 points.
While Dubas hasn't been perfect, he has been pretty good for the Leafs. We need post season success though, and we haven't got that yet.

 

[bretpatrick7]

Rather sign Nylander Matthews and Marner with Reilly locked up.

Tavares gets bought out or moved or something.

Tavares has a FULL no movement clause, meaning he decides where he goes if he goes and considering he asked for it, i doubt he waives. Also theres no point buying him out. His cap hit for those remaining years is actually minimal because it's heavily loaded in bonus (approx 10,3Mill per year cap hit).

Regarding Matthews and Marner, they both have a NMC coming into effect july 1st 2023. So that means if the team wants control and value, they need to trade them before July 1st 2023 or making damn sure they resign them before the end of their contract otherwise they could both walk for nothing. Either that or they ask Matthews and Marner again to waive, but goodluck getting full value for them if they will only waive for 2-3 teams.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

The definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result.

I find it unbelievable that so many leaf fans are fine with running it back for more seasons even though they have witnessed the last 4 years.

Also, like you mentioned, it seems strange how the Leafs give their stars big pay days before they have even won anything in the post season.

Dubas gave matthews $11.64 x 5 for a career high of 70 points and a weak playoff record. Imagine if AM was signed for 8 years at a reasonable cap hit, say 10.75 so that he is in the middle of eichel and mcdavid (which at the time of signing, he was). Then marner would be paid less and we would have both locked in for longer.

Dubas basically did as bad as he could've.

Matthews was and currently is inbetween McDavid and Eichel. Edmonton got McDavid an a phenomenal contract.

 

[Racer88]

Hyman was fantastic for Edmonton in the playoffs. But why was he such a dud for the Leafs in the playoffs for 5 years?

Maybe it was his line mates on the Leafs…….his Job on the Leafs was to get the puck to Matthews or Marner and the idea was for them to score. The problem was that Marner and Matthews have not scored many goals the last three playoffs

 

[socko]

Tavares has a FULL no movement clause, meaning he decides where he goes if he goes and considering he asked for it, i doubt he waives. Also theres no point buying him out. His cap hit for those remaining years is actually minimal because it's heavily loaded in bonus (approx 10,3Mill per year cap hit).

Regarding Matthews and Marner, they both have a NMC coming into effect july 1st 2023. So that means if the team wants control and value, they need to trade them before July 1st 2023 or making damn sure they resign them before the end of their contract otherwise they could both walk for nothing. Either that or they ask Matthews and Marner again to waive, but goodluck getting full value for them if they will only waive for 2-3 teams.

If I'm Matthews and I have a team picked out, I tell them to not trade for me in my final year. If you're signing for 7 years those draft picks are going to have a huge impact on if you win the cup or not. I ride out the last few months and screw over the Leafs and they get nothing. Tavares did it right.

 

[Legion34]

Apparently matthews wanted 13 x 8 when he had a career high of 70 points. Dubas got him "down" to 11.64 x 5.

After at least 2 rockets, a Hart and a lindsay, you think he's going to take 13 mil?

Orrrrr

Apparently Matthews wanted 13 x 8 when he was rumoured to be offered 15 x 7 on a sheet and he was

The second best goal ELC goal scorer in the past 30 years.

He got paid as deserved

Fun fact. Matthews is about 10 goals behind ovy with 10 more games played by 24

Ovy scored 30 goals over his next 3 years

Marty might have outscored ovy by 50’goals by 27.

 

[ACC1224]

Orrrrr

Apparently Matthews wanted 13 x 8 when he was rumoured to be offered 15 x 7 on a sheet and he was

The second best goal ELC goal scorer in the past 30 years.

He got paid as deserved

Fun fact. Matthews is about 10 goals behind ovy with 10 more games played by 24

Ovy scored 30 goals over his next 3 years

Marty might have outscored ovy by 50’goals by 27.

He was going to sign an offer sheet?

 

[Legion34]

He was going to sign an offer sheet?

We don’t know what he was going to do. Friedman reported that multiple GMs were considering a massive 15
X7 sheet.

The leafs were convinced of it and didn’t want to let it get that far. A player may have no intention until it is real.

We will never know

 

[Menzinger]

If I'm Matthews and I have a team picked out, I tell them to not trade for me in my final year. If you're signing for 7 years those draft picks are going to have a huge impact on if you win the cup or not. I ride out the last few months and screw over the Leafs and they get nothing. Tavares did it right.

I can't think of a single other NHLer who did something like youre suggesting.tavares by all accounts was simply still undecided by the tdl and the Isles gambled (wrongly) they could keep him before free agency.

Matthews isn't going to go out of his way to screw Toronto - even if he has no intention of staying, he's not going to want to stay around a place he doesn't want to live anymore

 

[socko]

Give up a huge return for a month or so of hockey? I'd be really pissed at them (and would just block it with NMC). That will have a huge effect on their ability to keep a competitive team around him. It's not about screwing the Leafs out of spite, it's about what is best for Matthews and his new team. Beside becoming a free agent gives him more leverage than going to his supposed new team, nothing like a bidding war with one of the games 2 best players available for the taking.

I personally think he signs back in Toronto. But if he's jumping ship, he'd be wise to not let his new team sell the farm for him. It makes little sense.

 

[ACC1224]

We don’t know what he was going to do. Friedman reported that multiple GMs were considering a massive 15
X7 sheet.

The leafs were convinced of it and didn’t want to let it get that far. A player may have no intention until it is real.

We will never know

If they had any idea he would look to sign something they should have signed him for 8 years.

 

[Menzinger]

Give up a huge return for a month or so of hockey? I'd be really pissed at them. That will have a huge effect on their ability to keep a competitive team around him. It's not about screwing the Leafs out of spite, it's about what is best for Matthews and his new team. Beside becoming a free agent gives him more leverage than going to his supposed new team, nothing like a bidding war with one of the games 2 best players available for the taking.

I personally think he signs back in Toronto. But if he's jumping ship, he'd be wise to not let his new team sell the farm for him. It makes little sense.

And after it was leaked to the media that he went out of his way to block trades can you imagine how miserable it would be for him given the fan and media pressure? Maybe the front office even healthy scratches him a few games.

Regardless I can't think of a single star who was intended on leaving and then also blocked all trade attempts. Especially with a front office who has seemingly been on good terms with the player

 

[Legion34]

If they had any idea he would look to sign something they should have signed him for 8 years.

That makes no sense. At all. The whole point is that the leafs believed he would make 15 x 7.

If so how could they sign him for 8?

I am not saying this confirmed. I have no idea. But if he really was looking at 15 x 7 how could the get hom
To sign for 8?

How much?

 

[socko]

Sundin did something similar. Refused the trade and then went there anyway later. Although, I think being pissed was a motivation for him. But it ended up the Leafs got nothing.

 

[ACC1224]

That makes no sense. At all. The whole point is that the leafs believed he would make 15 x 7.

If so how could they sign him for 8?

I am not saying this confirmed. I have no idea. But if he really was looking at 15 x 7 how could the get hom
To sign for 8?

How much?

8 years

 

[socko]

Regardless I can't think of a single star who was intended on leaving and then also blocked all trade attempts. Especially with a front office who has seemingly been on good terms with the player

Well you probably pull a Tavares and pretend you're planning on staying but just testing the waters. There is a reason Islanders fans hate that guy so much. He was pretty dishonest about his intentions (or so it seems). Keeping the Leafs in the bidding, drives the price up.

 

[ACC1224]

Sundin did something similar. Refused the trade and then went there anyway later. Although, I think being pissed was a motivation for him. But it ended up the Leafs got nothing.

He went because he didn’t want to retire.

 

[Legion34]

8 years

For how much money? 15?

you aren’t getting a discount on the 29th year of lofe
Contract

8 years only drops the number of you are old and may not make it to retirement.

IF Matthews was going to be offered a 15 million x 7 deal. He would have to be close to if not 15 x 8

 

[socko]

He went because he didn’t want to retire.

The Leafs didn't want him back? I didn't remember that but I honestly think maybe I wasn't following the league that closely at the time.

 

[ACC1224]

For how much money? 15?

you aren’t getting a discount on the 29th year of lofe
Contract

8 years only drops the number of you are old and may not make it to retirement.

IF Matthews was going to be offered a 15 million x 7 deal. He would have to be close to if not 15 x 8

Sure 15 x 8