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The 2024-2025 Roster Thread

Ace

Ace

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Oct 29, 2015
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SnuggaRUDE said:
McLeod has the same xGF% as Cozens. If he's passing an eye test it's because he's scored some timely goals, and is generally getting difficult deployment.
Click to expand...

1. The deployment part matters a lot. McLeod is getting much harder zone starts than Cozens. Having the same xGF% as a guy being set up with far easier starts it isn’t a victory lap for the player failing to do better with it. Cozens gets to start in position to score…and doesn’t. And isn’t expected to more than a guy starting on the other side of the rink against the top competition. That’s a bad number for cozens. Not proof he’s doing well. At the very least…it’s an incredible number for McLeod. Either way it isn’t a “look how good Cozens has been, actually” number.

2. No one said he hasn’t had chances. They’ve said, accurately, his stick is where those chances go to die. Every single one this year, and he was leading the team in SOG as of a couple games ago, has been a wasted opportunity. Finishing matters. I don’t give a solitary f*** how often the center on this team with the softest deployment is supposed to score when he doesn’t score any. I care a lot when that person never does. Outside of his magical shooting percentage in a contract year…Cozens isn’t a finisher. Hasn’t been. Isn’t. And until people normalize that that year was the outlier and not every other one is who he actually is…we are just spinning our wheels. They paid him for what he isn’t. Sucks. Can’t keep throwing good time after bad money

3. He’s a f***ing winger.
 
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Dreakon13

Dreakon13

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I'd kinda like to see some combination of Benson-Cozens-Kulich ... I dunno who if either are playing on their off wing, but I feel like Benson and Kulich could win enough puck battles and make enough happen to get Cozens going.

I wouldn't want to break any other lines up, and both Cozens and Quinn need to sit for a little while but I'll take my chances with Cozens for the moment since he's at least getting shots off sometimes lol
 

SnuggaRUDE

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Apr 5, 2013
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Ace said:
1. The deployment part matters a lot. McLeod is getting much harder zone starts than Cozens. Having the same xGF% as a guy being set up with far easier starts it isn’t a victory lap for the player failing to do better with it. Cozens gets to start in position to score…and doesn’t. And isn’t expected to more than a guy starting on the other side of the rink against the top competition. That’s a bad number for cozens. Not proof he’s doing well. At the very least…it’s an incredible number for McLeod. Either way it isn’t a “look how good Cozens has been, actually” number.

2. No one said he hasn’t had chances. They’ve said, accurately, his stick is where those chances go to die. Every single one this year, and he was leading the team in SOG as of a couple games ago, has been a wasted opportunity. Finishing matters. I don’t give a solitary f*** how often the center on this team with the softest deployment is supposed to score when he doesn’t score any. I care a lot when that person never does. Outside of his magical shooting percentage in a contract year…Cozens isn’t a finisher. Hasn’t been. Isn’t. And until people normalize that that year was the outlier and not every other one is who he actually is…we are just spinning our wheels. They paid him for what he isn’t. Sucks. Can’t keep throwing good time after bad money

3. He’s a f***ing winger.
Click to expand...

So my original post wasn't designed as a defense of Cozens so much as it points out people are exceedingly happy with McLeod because he's scored some timely goals on low percentage shots.
 
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Ace

Ace

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Oct 29, 2015
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SnuggaRUDE said:
So my original post wasn't designed as a defense of Cozens so much as it points out people are exceedingly happy with McLeod because he's scored some timely goals on low percentage shots.
Click to expand...
It still discounts that he’s doing it against harder competition with much a harder deployment. If he was in Cozens spot…he’d have an increased expected goals just due to usage. Not shooting 0% isn’t a negative.
 
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GellMann

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Dec 16, 2014
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Ace said:
1. The deployment part matters a lot. McLeod is getting much harder zone starts than Cozens. Having the same xGF% as a guy being set up with far easier starts it isn’t a victory lap for the player failing to do better with it. Cozens gets to start in position to score…and doesn’t. And isn’t expected to more than a guy starting on the other side of the rink against the top competition. That’s a bad number for cozens. Not proof he’s doing well. At the very least…it’s an incredible number for McLeod. Either way it isn’t a “look how good Cozens has been, actually” number.

2. No one said he hasn’t had chances. They’ve said, accurately, his stick is where those chances go to die. Every single one this year, and he was leading the team in SOG as of a couple games ago, has been a wasted opportunity. Finishing matters. I don’t give a solitary f*** how often the center on this team with the softest deployment is supposed to score when he doesn’t score any. I care a lot when that person never does. Outside of his magical shooting percentage in a contract year…Cozens isn’t a finisher. Hasn’t been. Isn’t. And until people normalize that that year was the outlier and not every other one is who he actually is…we are just spinning our wheels. They paid him for what he isn’t. Sucks. Can’t keep throwing good time after bad money

3. He’s a f***ing winger.
Click to expand...
doesn't the final xgf% number get spit out by a regression that accounts for zone starts and quality of opponent, among many other things?

My main issue with its use here is that its predictive value is at its best once the sample size has reached ~half a season, the number means half as much after 8 games as it will in january

I could be wrong on either of these things, i last read papers on xgf% in like 2018

McLeod is 5x the player Cozens is right now for us
 
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Doug Prishpreed

Doug Prishpreed

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May 1, 2013
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Ace said:
1. The deployment part matters a lot. McLeod is getting much harder zone starts than Cozens. Having the same xGF% as a guy being set up with far easier starts it isn’t a victory lap for the player failing to do better with it. Cozens gets to start in position to score…and doesn’t. And isn’t expected to more than a guy starting on the other side of the rink against the top competition. That’s a bad number for cozens. Not proof he’s doing well. At the very least…it’s an incredible number for McLeod. Either way it isn’t a “look how good Cozens has been, actually” number.

2. No one said he hasn’t had chances. They’ve said, accurately, his stick is where those chances go to die. Every single one this year, and he was leading the team in SOG as of a couple games ago, has been a wasted opportunity. Finishing matters. I don’t give a solitary f*** how often the center on this team with the softest deployment is supposed to score when he doesn’t score any. I care a lot when that person never does. Outside of his magical shooting percentage in a contract year…Cozens isn’t a finisher. Hasn’t been. Isn’t. And until people normalize that that year was the outlier and not every other one is who he actually is…we are just spinning our wheels. They paid him for what he isn’t. Sucks. Can’t keep throwing good time after bad money

3. He’s a f***ing winger.
Click to expand...
Isn’t xGF% supposed to account for deployment and linemates, QoC, that type of thing?
 
Doug Prishpreed

Doug Prishpreed

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MOGlLNY said:
“Cozens is snakebit” has been said multiple times a season the last 3 seasons. Guy just can’t finish
Click to expand...
Thinking back to the early days, that was always the worry among folks on here, wasn’t it? My memory isn’t great.

I remember being worried about the shot a bit, but even more his play in the o-zone once he got there. Just don’t seem to have the IQ to be an elite guy there. Getting to the o-zone though…it always seemed like he had amazing transition ability and hardworking, north-south game that helped his team win.

I think thoughts were all over the place with regards to C vs W.

I could be misremembering but he seems to be turning into the exact player he seemed like he was going to be when we drafted him. There was a brief time where he looked like he could be elite but I think he’ll turn out to be a 2W or 3C, which is great.

As far as position goes, he profiles similarly to Konsta. 2W/3C. But their skill sets are like mirror images haha.
 
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Dubi Doo

Dubi Doo

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Aug 27, 2008
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Anyone think they can make the playoffs as a bottom-3 PP unit? I'd assume that's a very rare occurrence. Need to get that figured out. even approaching mediocre would be a massive step in the right direction.
 
K8fool

K8fool

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Sep 30, 2018
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dozens is way too young and it's too early to judge thankfully the team and the sucker greenway McLeod line has really taken the pressure off

If he clicks w Quinn and power play and the team stays high energy physical we'll all have less to beach about

auto correct nicknamed the kid I didn't
 
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