The 2024-2025 Roster Thread
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Djp
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For ELCs signed at 18 it’s 3 yrs of the ELC unless they hit 160 g as a skater. Peterka just went over 160, Quinn is around 112.
old kummelweck
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- Nov 10, 2003
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Woah. This would be a huge wake-up call. I wonder if they would do it? If they truly are working in a system of accountability and reward, he should be sent down.
Ace
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- Oct 29, 2015
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1. The deployment part matters a lot. McLeod is getting much harder zone starts than Cozens. Having the same xGF% as a guy being set up with far easier starts it isn’t a victory lap for the player failing to do better with it. Cozens gets to start in position to score…and doesn’t. And isn’t expected to more than a guy starting on the other side of the rink against the top competition. That’s a bad number for cozens. Not proof he’s doing well. At the very least…it’s an incredible number for McLeod. Either way it isn’t a “look how good Cozens has been, actually” number.
2. No one said he hasn’t had chances. They’ve said, accurately, his stick is where those chances go to die. Every single one this year, and he was leading the team in SOG as of a couple games ago, has been a wasted opportunity. Finishing matters. I don’t give a solitary f*** how often the center on this team with the softest deployment is supposed to score when he doesn’t score any. I care a lot when that person never does. Outside of his magical shooting percentage in a contract year…Cozens isn’t a finisher. Hasn’t been. Isn’t. And until people normalize that that year was the outlier and not every other one is who he actually is…we are just spinning our wheels. They paid him for what he isn’t. Sucks. Can’t keep throwing good time after bad money
3. He’s a f***ing winger.
Dreakon13
Registered User
I'd kinda like to see some combination of Benson-Cozens-Kulich ... I dunno who if either are playing on their off wing, but I feel like Benson and Kulich could win enough puck battles and make enough happen to get Cozens going.
I wouldn't want to break any other lines up, and both Cozens and Quinn need to sit for a little while but I'll take my chances with Cozens for the moment since he's at least getting shots off sometimes lol
I wouldn't want to break any other lines up, and both Cozens and Quinn need to sit for a little while but I'll take my chances with Cozens for the moment since he's at least getting shots off sometimes lol
Zman5778
Moderator
even if Power keeps up nearly a point per game pace and Dahlin struggles?
Do we want a real team or just our favorites to get the ice time?
I mean, they were running both Dahlin and Power on PP1 and Byram on PP2 for a time.
So my original post wasn't designed as a defense of Cozens so much as it points out people are exceedingly happy with McLeod because he's scored some timely goals on low percentage shots.
Ace
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It still discounts that he’s doing it against harder competition with much a harder deployment. If he was in Cozens spot…he’d have an increased expected goals just due to usage. Not shooting 0% isn’t a negative.
“Cozens is snakebit” has been said multiple times a season the last 3 seasons. Guy just can’t finish
He has stone hands, and I don't think that will ever change. But he has a nice shot. He needs to figure out a way to use his shot to score.
doesn't the final xgf% number get spit out by a regression that accounts for zone starts and quality of opponent, among many other things?
My main issue with its use here is that its predictive value is at its best once the sample size has reached ~half a season, the number means half as much after 8 games as it will in january
I could be wrong on either of these things, i last read papers on xgf% in like 2018
McLeod is 5x the player Cozens is right now for us
Doug Prishpreed
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Doug Prishpreed
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Thinking back to the early days, that was always the worry among folks on here, wasn’t it? My memory isn’t great.
I remember being worried about the shot a bit, but even more his play in the o-zone once he got there. Just don’t seem to have the IQ to be an elite guy there. Getting to the o-zone though…it always seemed like he had amazing transition ability and hardworking, north-south game that helped his team win.
I think thoughts were all over the place with regards to C vs W.
I could be misremembering but he seems to be turning into the exact player he seemed like he was going to be when we drafted him. There was a brief time where he looked like he could be elite but I think he’ll turn out to be a 2W or 3C, which is great.
As far as position goes, he profiles similarly to Konsta. 2W/3C. But their skill sets are like mirror images haha.
debaser66
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jc17
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K8fool
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dozens is way too young and it's too early to judge thankfully the team and the sucker greenway McLeod line has really taken the pressure off
If he clicks w Quinn and power play and the team stays high energy physical we'll all have less to beach about
auto correct nicknamed the kid I didn't
If he clicks w Quinn and power play and the team stays high energy physical we'll all have less to beach about
auto correct nicknamed the kid I didn't
joshjull
Registered User
The previous 3 seasons for Cozens…..
All Situations
21-22 -> 13g on 160 shots/S% - 8.13%
22-23 -> 31g on 211 shots/S% - 14.69%
23-24 -> 18g on 200 shots/S% - 9%
5v5
21-22 -> 11g on 126 shots/S% - 8.73%
22-23 -> 21g on 148 shots/S% - 14.19%
23-24 -> 8g on 141 shots/S% - 5.67%
I think it’s fair to say last season 5v5 he was somewhat “snake bit”. A 9% 5v5 shooting% gets him to 13 goals and 23g for the season.
I don’t know what others expectations are. But 20+ goals seems like a realistic expectation.
He had goals in every game state last season and the season before (PP, PK, with empty net, against empty net, 3v3). Which is what you like to see with a guy playing in all situations. But last season his 5v5 production fell off a cliff.
If he could get his defensive game on track and get out of his head offensively, he should be the player we need. But those are pretty big ifs.
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to my eye cozens has looked out of sorts and mistake prone. he is not meshing well with his linemates and looks sloppy. too many giveaways. his terrible effort on the foligno rush sticks out. mcleod has looked fast and decisive.
the underlying metrics may say different, but this is what i'm seeing when i watch the games. i will say cozens looked better in the dallas game.
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xG are a function of shot events. They don't typically adjust for deployment, QoT or QoC. Here's a link to Money Puck's blurb.
AFAIK there are no publicly available models which fit a players realized xGF% against their likely xGF% given on ice players. I suspect a few teams may have developed them. If we learned Seattle/Carolina used that sort of scheme it'd be believable.
I have a model to score a player against how they 'should' be performing but it's extremely cumbersome.
That's an excellent example of what I'm trying to bring up. Again, I believe Cozens has struggled so far.
But McLeod is doing quite bad with giveaways: 7 on the year with only a single takeaway. Second on the team behind only Quinn. Cozens is one of the better Sabres for G/T 1 giveaway for 1 takeaways (all numbers 5v5).
Buffalo in general has struggled with giveaways
This is no fault of anyone. Those goals, and they've been timely, loom very large in our memory. The likelihood that McLeod suddenly explodes for 40 goals (almost 20 above expected) seems slim to me. Even keeping up his pace to get 20 goals would be a very marked improvement.
