Confirmed with Link: Ryan McLeod & Ty Tullio traded to Buffalo for Matthew Savoie

[TheMistyStranger]

Also keep in mind that one potential reason for McL's offensive numbers is that it wasn't his job. His job was to get the puck from his end and generate an offensive faceoff, then get off the ice.

 

[DapperCam]

View attachment 893307

I think the trade was pretty bad value, but everybody on these boards have been saying for at least 2 off seasons that there is no way all these top-6 prospects will be able to make the NHL team and moves would have to be made one way or another.

That is still true IMO. I doubt all of Rosen, Kulich, Ostlund, Helenius, etc will be able to play on the Sabres considering the youth and long contracts we already have. Some will have to be dealt either to kick the can down the road, or a 4 quarters for a dollar type deal to consolidate assets.

 

[RefsIdeas]

Also keep in mind that one potential reason for McL's offensive numbers is that it wasn't his job. His job was to get the puck from his end and generate an offensive faceoff, then get off the ice.

That’s half true.

McLeod had an offensive zone start 48.8% of the time.

While that’s more defensive than offensive, it’s a far cry from somebody like Malenstyn who had a 9.9% for offensive zone starts.

 

[Zman5778]

I think the trade was pretty bad value

I don't really think I've seen anyone here even try to argue that the value was good. A trade can make sense on both sides but the value be a bit skewed one way or another.

And that's what happened here. Buffalo and Edmonton traded strengths for weaknesses. Buffalo got a defensive-minded 3C with still some potential for more, while Edmonton got a high-ish end offensive prospect.

Those that are seeing only value will see this as a loss and nothing more. But there's a bigger picture here.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

The legendary McLeod for Savoie thread will go down in hf Sabres history.

 

[Chainshot]

That’s half true.

McLeod had an offensive zone start 48.8% of the time.

While that’s more defensive than offensive, it’s a far cry from somebody like Malenstyn who had a 9.9% for offensive zone starts.

Malenstyn had outlandish d-zone deployment. It was far from normal.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

I had dinner with a bunch of Power Edge Pro coaches last year in Toronto. One of them was Bruins scout Parker McKay. Bruins top three, non-negotiable traits a player must have for a Bruins scout to recommend them:

1. Character
2. Work ethic
3. Hockey IQ

What decisions the Bruins GM and scouting director make notwithstanding, their scouts are not allowed to recommend a player without high grades in those three areas.

When you get focused on size, speed, shot, you end up missing good hockey players. McKay wouldn't tell me exactly, but the Bruins had Benson high on their draft list. A lot higher than 13. That's from an organization that loses Chara, Bergeron, and Krecji and basically doesn't miss a beat over the course of multiple seasons. Maybe they're onto something?

Character*
*unless you're Mitchell Miller

 

[Dingo44]

The legendary McLeod for Savoie thread will go down in hf Sabres history.

It has potential to be the new O'Reilly to St. Louis thread.

 

[old kummelweck]

It has potential to be the new O'Reilly to St. Louis thread.

I can't remember when I finally ignore that thread, but it wasn't all that long ago.

 

[Gras]

So then since Mitts got 5.75m a season you are all for giving McLeod the same deal.

Thats crazy.

They wont get the same cap because offensive players get paid more.

 

[HaNotsri]

It has potential to be the new O'Reilly to St. Louis thread.

Not really. ROR was essentially traded for 0 value. Two cap dumps were covered by pick+Thompson but zero payment for ROR.

This trade is miles better. Trading Savoie for Pageau would have been closer to ROR-level.

 

[Selanne00008]

View attachment 893329

It's like;

"We don't have to pay Giambi (Cirelli) because he (mcLeod) can get on base.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809409192178180168

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809413048492544035

 

[Dirty Dog]

No, dont put words in my mouth.

The only thing I am thinking is Adams sucks.

Thanks for admitting it. You are bashing every move he makes no matter what. We get it, keep it up

 

[jc17]

Also keep in mind that one potential reason for McL's offensive numbers is that it wasn't his job. His job was to get the puck from his end and generate an offensive faceoff, then get off the ice.

That’s half true.

McLeod had an offensive zone start 48.8% of the time.

While that’s more defensive than offensive, it’s a far cry from somebody like Malenstyn who had a 9.9% for offensive zone starts.

Malenstyn had outlandish d-zone deployment. It was far from normal.

Woahhhh lets back it up here. Feels like we're just going along with a verifiably false statement because it makes us feel better about the deal.

If you tell me I'm wrong here I'll listen because I generally appreciate posts from both of you, but Misty that seems like a huge generalization based on the fact that he's fast and has high defensive impacts and Chain, kind of a deflection of the main point. Judging by the likes on all of these posts I can tell what people want to believe. Is that really an accurate description of his role?

Hyman and Mcdavid are the only players that got fewer D zone faceoffs/60 with the oilers for context. I know he had defensive responsibilities, but describing his role like that, and people going along with it, feels like there's a bit too much homerism happening.

 

[DapperCam]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809409192178180168

How many top 10 picks (that weren’t in the top-2) do well in the NHL in their D+2 season? Almost none. In Savoie’s draft there has been Cooley and that’s basically it, and he went #3, so a bit different pedigree. I call B.S. on that talking point.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

How many top 10 picks (that weren’t in the top-2) do well in the NHL in their D+2 season? Almost none. In Savoie’s draft there has been Cooley and that’s basically it, and he went #3, so a bit different pedigree. I call B.S. on that talking point.

Yeah that premise is pretty stupid.

Picked in top 10? Need a strong D+2 season in the NHL, otherwise bust.
Picked 11? You get more time to prove yourself.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

How many top 10 picks (that weren’t in the top-2) do well in the NHL in their D+2 season? Almost none. In Savoie’s draft there has been Cooley and that’s basically it, and he went #3, so a bit different pedigree. I call B.S. on that talking point.

Yeah the guy is really showing his ass on that one. I agree with his point but I’m guessing his model is garbage if that’s what he thinks happens.

 

[jc17]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809409192178180168

"There's nothing that a forward can do in the CHL in their D+2 that's really all that impressive or really justifies "elite prospect" status. "

Ahh this feels like even more nonsense.

How is it that the guy that came up with the model can't figure out that A) if there's nothing a prospect can do in D+2 to make the model happy, it might not be good at evaluating that situation lol, or B) the fact that many poorly rated players in their draft year can make a big jump by d+2, skewing the results of the whole group.

Top 10 picks from the CHL in d+2. These guys' high end forecasts also disproven by d+2? Obviously busts as well here, but it seems like maybe a slightly below average outcome based on draft position overall.

Again, I'm not hating on the trade, but seems like we're just latching onto anything that supports the outcome we want.

 

[MOGlLNY]

Ahh this feels like even more nonsense.

How is it that the guy that came up with the model can't figure out that A) if there's nothing a prospect can do in D+2 to make the model happy, it might not be good at evaluating that situation lol, or B) the fact that many poorly rated players in their draft year can make a big jump by d+2, skewing the results of the whole group.

View attachment 893430

Top 10 picks from the CHL in d+2. These guys' high end forecasts also disproven by d+2? Obviously busts as well here, but it seems like maybe a slightly below average outcome based on draft position overall.

Again, I'm not hating on the trade, but seems like we're just latching onto anything that supports the outcome we want.

i mean how many of these guys are 5’8 or 5’9”? I’ve been beating the drum to trade Savoie for a bit now so I’m not as hurt by the trade as some. Which I get.

 

[KrakenSabresMike]

Yeah the guy is really showing his ass on that one. I agree with his point but I’m guessing his model is garbage if that’s what he thinks happens.

He’s saying true stars usually hit the nhl by d+2 and show something- otherwise a prospects chance of being a star diminishes significantly.

That’s the whole point of his model… It says his likelihood of becoming an nhler it still quite high but his chance of being a star is less than 20%… Out of that list near here , seems like that’s pretty spot on.

Based on history, reported league value, injury, history, performance at major tournaments, size, etc.… This assessment seems pretty spot on. I would say it’s much more likely that he does not become a star than he does but will probably be a useful Middle six forward of some type.

80% chance Ennis, 20% chance Barzal

 

[jc17]

i mean how many of these guys are 5’8 or 5’9”? I’ve been beating the drum to trade Savoie for a bit now so I’m not as hurt by the trade as some. Which I get.

size is already included in the model, so it shouldn't be a reason for his rating reducing, unless he shrunk over the past two years..

Anyway, the 2 biggest disappointments here are Dal Colle and Glennie at 6'3 and 6'1.

Savoie's injuries along with his size also gave me pause, so if the team doesn't want that gamble it's their choice, and I get it, but I just think its ridiculous for anyone to act like he's some lost cause or something

 

[Chainshot]

Woahhhh lets back it up here. Feels like we're just going along with a verifiably false statement because it makes us feel better about the deal.

If you tell me I'm wrong here I'll listen because I generally appreciate posts from both of you, but Misty that seems like a huge generalization based on the fact that he's fast and has high defensive impacts and Chain, kind of a deflection of the main point. Judging by the likes on all of these posts I can tell what people want to believe. Is that really an accurate description of his role?

Hyman and Mcdavid are the only players that got fewer D zone faceoffs/60 with the oilers for context. I know he had defensive responsibilities, but describing his role like that, and people going along with it, feels like there's a bit too much homerism happening.

I was pointing out that comp'ing him to Malenstyn isn't fair to Malenstyn - Beck was one of the most skewed d-zone deployments in the league and that wasn't what McLeod drew. The Malenstyn thread goes into it more but it is Housley using Larsson only harder, more on par with how the Preds used Gaustad honestly.

 

[Royal Thunder]

Yes the value on paper is advantage Edmonton but that doesn’t automatically make it a bad trade.

Assuming both guys get near their ceiling - Which young player archetype is more valuable long term, a fast defensively responsible 3C or a skilled quick top 6 winger? I know which one is funner and which one gets paid more, but which is more important to team building? It’s pretty close, no? I think a lot of it comes down to what Savoie’s realistic ceiling is. Some are talking like he could be a Gaudreau/Briere/Kyrou-level player but I think his realistic ceiling is a Fiala/Ehlers/Skinner type of guy. Very effective player but with some clear deficiencies and not someone who is going to drive the bus for you.

We have Quinn Benson and Peterka who I think all have higher upside playing for the Sabres. Behind them we still have Kulich and Rosen. You can only have so many of the same type of player - Edmonton has no one who fits the profile of a young scoring winger (unless you are a Holloway believer) so it makes a lot of sense for them to acquire one for someone who is deemed expendable as they go all-in with the Henrique move.

If McLeod becomes a long term above average 3C who can play up and down the lineup and tilt the ice, that’s probably going to end up more valuable to us then Savoie would’ve unless you genuinely believe Savoie had consistent 80+ point potential playing for the Sabres. Is Savoie that good? I don’t know, the hype on him has kind of simmered down since the draft and the eye test has never really matched the production… but it’s possible and if that happens then the Sabres absolutely miscalculated here.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

Inside the Sabres' pre-Draft analytics process | Buffalo Sabres

Sam Ventura, Domenic Galamini Jr., and Matt Barlowe explain how the organization uses statistics to inform decision making leading up to the draft.

www.nhl.com

Today, the data the analytics team has on draft-eligible prospects is similar to the data used to evaluate NHL players, which allows Ventura’s team to objectively quantify prospects’ skill sets in ways that were not possible before.

As a result, the group has a much better understanding of which skill sets and styles of play tend to translate well as players move up into professional hockey.

“There’s a ton of draft-eligible players that I probably would have strongly supported a few seasons ago without this higher-quality data who we have much lower interest in now, after being able to better understand the details and the nuances of their game,” Ventura said.

This data, which gives hockey departments an in-depth look at draft-eligible players in ways public-facing data does not, permits analytics teams to project a full range of possible outcomes for each player, including their floors and ceilings.

Interesting quote in hindsight