Roster thread: Get To Work (2022-2023 Season)

[Bendium]

ive done analysis. You don’t trade top 20 picks For 2 yr rentals….which crychrun is.

Never said you should. I said," a proper age core player with term and control." You're starting to get tunnel vision in your argument here.

 

[toddkaz]

ive done analysis. You don’t trade top 20 picks For 2 yr rentals….which crychrun is.

How do you know Chychrun wouldn't resign here? You don't.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

How do you know Chychrun wouldn't resign here? You don't.

Bigger concern would be what his next contract would look like. Adding him to the backend and you could end up looking like San Jose did last year with close to 40% of your cap tied up on the blueline. Look at Tampa, they had to trade Mcdonagh in order to retain Sergachev.

If you expect his contract to be 6 - 7 per that's manageable, but if he's looking for 8+ that's a little more difficult to manage potentially.

 

[Irie]

I hear you, but using the Eichel/Rienhart argument does not apply, as they were both 2nd round picks, and we know how they turned out. Using historical averages, you have to look at us picking say 13-20. In that range, history is going to be a good indicator of your chances. Even if this draft is deeper, your talking a couple picks higher value, assuming you hit on the pick.

People overvalue picks. You can build the core of your team over time thru the draft, but you will have to fill in around the core with trades and UFA's. Right now are argueably close to having 6 core forwards and three core dmen. To finish the core we need a goalie, 1 dman, and 1-2 forwards. We have a ton of top prospects in the forward pipeline, but almost nothing on D and Goalie. So if you can fill in any of those core piece with trades that include your 1st. Its time.

It is still always going to be pick by pick specific.

Eichel and Reinhardt are actually very relevant and definitely apply to this discussion. The difference in expectations between Eichel and Reinhardt before they were drafted was substantial, even though they both went 2OA.

We are talking about perceptions BEFORE they are drafted.

In some drafts, some prospects ranked 10-20 have similar upside expectations as players ranked 3-10 in other drafts. This is before they are drafted.

What this means is that drafts are not created equally.

No one could ever make the case that the 10th through 20th ranked prospects of 2004 pre-draft were perceived equally to the 10th through 20th ranked prospects of 2003 pre-draft. There was a different perception of quality between those drafts on draft day.

And the fact that stacked drafts tend to buck the trends of the blanket draft prospect by draft position success models, we know that it is unwise to use them as a tool to predict individual drafts or prospects.

 

[joshjull]

I'm just chiming in for the fun of it, I really don't think Adams should trade for Chychrun. I'm just bored and like the thought experiment.

The current Sabres situation would be most comparable if Dahlin was at LD and Granato split Samuelsson, Dahlin, and Power up on three pairs. Then went to 2 pairs during crunch time.I think the Chychrun idea is doable from a functional aspect (eg: having a 1st paring defender on your 3rd pair). I just don't know if I want to pay that type of cost. I'd much rather go working with Nashville on some sort of Fabbro/Sissons/Jeannot type of deal.
But I also think Adams is going to need to make one big trade sometime in the next 2 years, a prospects for player type of deal. Maybe similar to the O'Reilly deal. There will be a logjam at forward if he doesn't.

We could do whatever we wanted to with Chychrun here. We’d have 5 top 4 dmen.

I just don’t see the logic in passing up two perfectly matched top 4 pairs in Dahlin/Sammy and Power/Chychrun. It would effectively give us two top pairings. Breaking them up seems like doing something just to do it. But you could.


The entire debate around Chychrun really brings home how much of a luxury addition he would be. I’d be surprised if he was on Adams radar for the price being asked.

 

[Fjordsen]

Bigger concern would be what his next contract would look like. Adding him to the backend and you could end up looking like San Jose did last year with close to 40% of your cap tied up on the blueline. Look at Tampa, they had to trade Mcdonagh in order to retain Sergachev.

But it will be in two and a half years, then the cap can already grow and we will probably have prospects in the ELC contracts in lineup. If we are afraid of every rustle (make some deals), then nothing good will come of it.

The entire debate around Chychrun really brings home how much of a luxury addition he would be. I’d be surprised if he was on Adams radar for the price being asked.

Nevertheless, Adams is still interested in him, more sources confirm this.

 

[Irie]

But it will be in two and a half years, then the cap can already grow and we will probably have prospects in the ELC contracts in lineup. If we are afraid of every rustle (make some deals), then nothing good will come of it.

Timing is everything.

It is not time yet to trade 1st round picks in strong drafts. There is a better than average chance that the 23 1st turns into a special player. Chychrun may or may not stay healthy here. He may or may not have chemistry with Power or Jokiharju (we already know he did not have chemistry with Lyubushkin). He may or may not re-sign when the window really does open.

Keep building through the draft and only make deals for players that are here for guaranteed long-term until your team is a playoff team and ready to contend. Then is when you make the big trades to address the roster deficiencies to put you over the hump.

Teams that are desirable to UFAs can cheat their rebuilds. If you can attract top tier talent, you can afford to move top tier prospects and 1sts to build your roster. Teams like Buffalo do not have this luxury. The core and a strong reserve pipeline has to be in place before trading the farm to improve the team. This core here is not ready yet, they are too young and green, and not physically ready.

Rushing the rebuild will destroys the cup window. We know this from experience. Waiting sucks, but we should not make the same mistakes again that the last two regimes made.

 

[Der Jaeger]

We could do whatever we wanted to with Chychrun here. We’d have 5 top 4 dmen.

I just don’t see the logic in passing up two perfectly matched top 4 pairs in Dahlin/Sammy and Power/Chychrun. It would effectively give us two top pairings. Breaking them up seems like doing something just to do it. But you could.


The entire debate around Chychrun really brings home how much of a luxury addition he would be. I’d be surprised if he was on Adams radar for the price being asked.

For me, it'd be about puck possession and denying chances. Tampa was able to beat a wide variety of teams because they could always get the puck back on the defensive end, and when their D did breakdown, having an elite goalie.

It'd be, as you said, a luxury to have a defense where the Sabres could always have an elite defender on the ice.

 

[joshjull]

 

[Tatanka]

While this is a thing, the scenario the Sabres are in with a complete lack of D-men prospects simply forces them to put picks on the table for anyone worth a damn. We've seen the debates about drafting for BPA vs need, and while I personally think of it as a case-by-case issue, once a team finds itself in a spot like Buffalo does, the result is having to overpay to make up the difference. While a draft pick is a crap shoot on a sliding scale, the pick that develops is worth 2-3-4 times as much. Buffalo has to pay to solve this problem, and picks are inevitably going to be part of the price. They just don't have a choice regardless of how anyone over rates the picks.

I think you captured the situation perfectly. However, I think the problem most have is the concept of paying. A pick is an asset that a team uses to select a prospect another asset. If they are good at that part, turning picks into valuable assets, trading one of those assets for another asset in need is how it should be done. Too many become infatuated with the asset and do not look at them as currency. Yeah so you may lose cost certainty if, a big if, the prospect exceeds expectations. But at some point you run out room for all of them. They have a shelf life due to the CBA rights they have and not all will have avenues to the big club. And they are replenished every year. The GM needs to think about winning and using prospects should not be as big a deal as it is. It is terminal FOMO.

 

[Djp]

Never said you should. I said," a proper age core player with term and control." You're starting to get tunnel vision in your argument here.

no I’m not. Youare blind only looking in the short term.

How do you know Chychrun wouldn't resign here? You don't.

let’s assume in 2025 the cap is $91M….it’s a stretch

3/7 of it should be for D/G…or $39M

back up goalie and 7th D=$3M
top D=$11M ( Dahlin)
2 experienced D get $9M combined ( Samuelsson, Jokiharju)
so far $23M. $16M left
3D+SG= $16M
SG gets $4.5M ( say Levi/UPL is the top)
3D= $11.5M.
Power+acquire D + another. If Power gets a 4 yr $5.5M bridge ( only would have 2 yrs in so RFA at end)
2D for $6M
if you can have an ELC here will give you more flexibility.

i want to use the 23 1st on a D who would be NHL ready for 25/26 season starting his ELC.

im not trading the 23 1st unless it’s 21-32.

id prefer to go for Rasmussen Andersen. He has 3 full years after this season.

in terms of trades for chychrun…they are asking for a playoff teams 2 1sts + and those picks are 23-32 range. PHL 2nd in 23+ BUF 24 1St would be equivalent.

 

[Sabreality]

now don't laugh, but a deeper dumpster dive Adams should look at is Kulikov, Ducks are gonna sell it all, probably won't cost much, he's been around the block and can handle some minutes, rewrite his Sabres career...just shut the bench door

 

[toddkaz]

no I’m not. Youare blind only looking in the short term.


let’s assume in 2025 the cap is $91M….it’s a stretch

3/7 of it should be for D/G…or $39M

back up goalie and 7th D=$3M
top D=$11M ( Dahlin)
2 experienced D get $9M combined ( Samuelsson, Jokiharju)
so far $23M. $16M left
3D+SG= $16M
SG gets $4.5M ( say Levi/UPL is the top)
3D= $11.5M.
Power+acquire D + another. If Power gets a 4 yr $5.5M bridge ( only would have 2 yrs in so RFA at end)
2D for $6M
if you can have an ELC here will give you more flexibility.

i want to use the 23 1st on a D who would be NHL ready for 25/26 season starting his ELC.

im not trading the 23 1st unless it’s 21-32.

id prefer to go for Rasmussen Andersen. He has 3 full years after this season.

in terms of trades for chychrun…they are asking for a playoff teams 2 1sts + and those picks are 23-32 range. PHL 2nd in 23+ BUF 24 1St would be equivalent.

Nothing you post shows Chuchryn would be a rental.

Bigger concern would be what his next contract would look like. Adding him to the backend and you could end up looking like San Jose did last year with close to 40% of your cap tied up on the blueline. Look at Tampa, they had to trade Mcdonagh in order to retain Sergachev.

If you expect his contract to be 6 - 7 per that's manageable, but if he's looking for 8+ that's a little more difficult to manage potentially.

Thats what the cap is for. Its going up again. Can't sit around waiting forever and we got nothing in the farm. Boosh is a UFA after next year.

Gonna have to make trades to fix the defense.

 

[Sabreality]

Nothing you post shows Chuchryn would be a rental.


Thats what the cap is for. Its going up again. Can't sit around waiting forever and we got nothing in the farm. Boosh is a UFA after next year.

Gonna have to make trades to fix the defense.

there is still a concern, on one hand if he plays well enough over the last 2.5 years to command a huge deal, are we gonna outbid those UFA offers and what does THAT look like?

 

[Ace]

A two and a half year rental? That’s a thing we’re just going to allow be said as if it’s a thing? Really?

 

[Irie]

While this is a thing, the scenario the Sabres are in with a complete lack of D-men prospects simply forces them to put picks on the table for anyone worth a damn. We've seen the debates about drafting for BPA vs need, and while I personally think of it as a case-by-case issue, once a team finds itself in a spot like Buffalo does, the result is having to overpay to make up the difference. While a draft pick is a crap shoot on a sliding scale, the pick that develops is worth 2-3-4 times as much. Buffalo has to pay to solve this problem, and picks are inevitably going to be part of the price. They just don't have a choice regardless of how anyone over rates the picks.

I think there is a good chance we might see a high end forward prospect Savoie/Kulich/Ostlund/Rosen/ moved for an equally progressing D prospect.

While it will hurt to lose one of these kids, if Adams gets fair value, it would likely be a good move for the organization.

Now before everyone jumps in and says, "we are not trading So-and-So", none of the prospects are off the table depending on the return, so we have to assume that the return would make the move worth the cost.

 

[flashsabre]

A two and a half year rental? That’s a thing we’re just going to allow be said as if it’s a thing? Really?

He could have 6 years left and people here would complain “Yeah but what about after the 6th year? He could walk? You have a young core and have a chance to add a 24 year old top dman to the group but it would somehow destroy the playoff window. The one they haven’t had in 11 years. At some point you have to take steps forward. You have the youngest team in the league, a ton of young forward prospects including 3 from the first round last year, still coming. You can make a move for a Chychrun and not be rushing the build or ruining the playoff window.

 

[Djp]

Nothing you post shows Chuchryn would be a rental.


Thats what the cap is for. Its going up again. Can't sit around waiting forever and we got nothing in the farm. Boosh is a UFA after next year.

Gonna have to make trades to fix the defense.

how the hell are they going to re-sign him And Power?

 

[Djp]

I think there is a good chance we might see a high end forward prospect Savoie/Kulich/Ostlund/Rosen/ moved for an equally progressing D prospect.

While it will hurt to lose one of these kids, if Adams gets fair value, it would likely be a good move for the organization.

Now before everyone jumps in and says, "we are not trading So-and-So", none of the prospects are off the table depending on the return, so we have to assume that the return would make the move worth the cost.

im fine moving one of those for an equal level D prospect that might be a +/- 1-2 in terms of drsft class And build up our D prospect pool. They don’t have many prospect D other than Johnson and who knows if he gets signed. 4 of thrm on current team are 2017 and after so they are younger. They don’t need to get a 1D in a trade.

 

[Diaspora]

One post I saw in the Arizona thread suggested that the ask from Buffalo for Chychrun would be 2023 1st (top five protected), 2024 2nd, 2025 1st.

Don't bring up Mitts or VO. It'll ruin the mood.

It's a steep price, but I think I'd do that.

how the hell are they going to re-sign him And Power?

Shoot that snake later.

 

[Weltschmerz]

One post I saw in the Arizona thread suggested that the ask from Buffalo for Chychrun would be 2023 1st (top five protected), 2024 2nd, 2025 1st.

Don't bring up Mitts or VO. It'll ruin the mood.

It's a steep price, but I think I'd do that.


Shoot that snake later.

You sneak around other boards?

 

[Diaspora]

You sneak around other boards?

I skulk, occasionally, yes.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

The Sabres Defense = Tampa Bay enthusiasm is infectious, but we may need to pump the breaks a little.

McDonagh was a fantastic player at Samulsson's age, He was logging 24 minutes a night, playing great defense .4 ppg and getting All-Star / Norris votes. Maybe Samulsson gets to his level, but it's hardly a sure thing. In Tampa his workload decreased because of how sound that team is, but he still finished top 10 All-Star / Norris.

I also think Sergachev is a 1st pairing caliber defensemen even if he's a notch below what Hedmen and McDonagh were. He's certainly better than Power is at this moment in time, even if that's likely to eventually change. Power logs more minutes, but that's because he's needed to.

At equivelent stages in their careers Dahlin has been better than Hedman. Some of that is because at 20-22 Tampa really buried Hedmen with defensive starts.

 

[Chainshot]

You sneak around other boards?

The word would be "visit". Be polite, usually isn't an issue.

 

[Duddy]

Yeah, just do nothinh forever. That'll keep the lockerroom happy and of some want put who cares? They didn't want to be here or some other made up reason why the players that just want to make the playoffs are evil.

Get help, stop wasting years of our top guy. Get defense, there is nothing coming up. This team needs to expierence playoffs as soon as possible to learn what it takes to win there.