Roster thread: Get To Work (2022-2023 Season)

[Der Jaeger]

If Adams does add Chychrun (and I'm not an advocate of the move either way), he may want to slow roll it into the off season. Armstrong waited Botterill out until after the draft and ended up giving up a 2019 pick instead of a 2018 pick for O'Reilly.

 

[BG82]

Chychryn also has Buffalo on a non movement clause. He might not want to play here for the next 2.5 years even if the teams came to terms

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Chychryn also has Buffalo on a non movement clause. He might not want to play here for the next 2.5 years even if the teams came to terms

Cap Friendly shows Chychrun with no NTC or NMC until next season.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Chychryn also has Buffalo on a non movement clause. He might not want to play here for the next 2.5 years even if the teams came to terms

His NMC doesn't kick in until next year so he doesn't have a say on where he goes this year.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Hintz gets extended 8/8.45, they have a couple nice pieces now long term in Dallas. Anything to learn from that contract for Cozens, pretty close probably right ?

 

[toddkaz]

Chychryn also has Buffalo on a non movement clause. He might not want to play here for the next 2.5 years even if the teams came to terms

It doesn't start until next year and how do you know this? I thought these things aren't made public. He wouldn't submit it until next year.

 

[joshjull]

I'm not advocating for the Chychrun trade. But Tampa did have 3 top pairing defenseman on 3 different pairs for a few years, with Hedman, Sergachev, and McDonaugh. The Lightning did that for 4-5 years, depending on how early someone sees Sergachev as a top pairing defenseman, and if someone thought McDonagh was still a top pair defender at the end of his tim in Tampa.

But for at least 2-3 years, Tampa was running 3 top pairing defenders on 3 different pairs.

Sergachev is not a top pairing dman.

Our big three are better than the three you list for Tampa.

Hedman -> Dahlin. Eventually Power will be at this level. He is already better than Sergachev

McDonagh -> Sammy already there and has upside.


Tampa spread things out like they did because they only had 3 top 4 dmen of which only Hedman/McDonagh were trusted with heavy 5v5 minutes. Cernak was a 4/5 at the time and Schenn/Rutta were bottom pairing level.

If we acquired Chychrun we would have 5 dmen capable of at least top 4 minutes and 3 or 4 of whom who could be trusted with heavy 5v5 minutes.

I don’t think posters fully appreciate how much talent we already have on defense, let alone what it would look like with Chychrun in the mix.

 

[Bendium]

On what planet?

sabres pick even if they make the playoffs is likely a top 20 picks

top 20 picks sre generally long term nhl players.

a pick traded 24-36 is in that range you are talking about of never being an established nhler.

I did my reading and the concept stands. We could argue percentages at which pick numbers ad nauseum, but it wouldn't change the decision. Especially when you look at picks becoming core players. The percentiles are just alot lower than people think, and you have to wait many years to develop them. If you can trade that for a proper age core player with term and control, especially if it filles a need in the core build, then you should do it.

 

[Dirty Dog]

I don’t think posters fully appreciate how much talent we already have on defense, let alone what it would look like with Chychrun in the mix.

Or since a lot of people disagree with you, maybe it’s not such an unrealistic thing to say what a team might do with four top pairing guys?

I’m not saying they would spread them out, but I think it’s a reasonable thing to do with such a rare fortune of talent

 

[Ace]

You roll a Dahlin pair a Power pair and a Chychrun pair until crunch time and then you combine Power and Chychrun for a push.

It’s what we’ve already seen Granato doing through injuries. Well…after he learned his lesson about losing all the time because he put Dahlin and Power together and let the rest of the team get destroyed for half the night. He was even splitting Samuelsson for his own pair while he had to.

Imagine being able to roll 60 minutes with at least one of those three guys always on the ice. Imagine being able to spread minutes for the first two periods and keep everyone at their freshest and best.

Thats an opportunity that’s right there for them.

We already see how Dahlin and Power lead to positive possession and results while they’re on the ice. Now you could have a third option and keep those two at their optimal ability…and when you have to play catch up…you can shorten it down to four D and look at those 4

 

[Der Jaeger]

Sergachev is not a top pairing dman.

Our big three are better than the three you list for Tampa.

Hedman -> Dahlin. Eventually Power will be at this level. He is already better than Sergachev

McDonagh -> Sammy already there and has upside.


Tampa spread things out like they did because they only had 3 top 4 dmen of which only Hedman/McDonagh were trusted with heavy 5v5 minutes. Cernak was a 4/5 at the time and Schenn/Rutta were bottom pairing level.

If we acquired Chychrun we would have 5 dmen capable of at least top 4 minutes and 3 or 4 of whom who could be trusted with heavy 5v5 minutes.

I don’t think posters fully appreciate how much talent we already have on defense, let alone what it would look like with Chychrun in the mix.

We should agree to disagree on the topic. For me, I don't agree with your first point on Sergachev.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Saw this on the Wings board, but felt it was worth sharing.

The tweet is about how bad Chiarot/Seider have been, but take a look where Sammy/Dahlin are

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Saw this on the Wings board, but felt it was worth sharing.

The tweet is about how bad Chiarot/Seider have been, but take a look where Sammy/Dahlin are

...(and Chychrun)...

 

[Djp]

I did my reading and the concept stands. We could argue percentages at which pick numbers ad nauseum, but it wouldn't change the decision. Especially when you look at picks becoming core players. The percentiles are just alot lower than people think, and you have to wait many years to develop them. If you can trade that for a proper age core player with term and control, especially if it filles a need in the core build, then you should do it.

ive done analysis. You don’t trade top 20 picks For 2 yr rentals….which crychrun is.

 

[Fjordsen]

Saw this on the Wings board, but felt it was worth sharing.

The tweet is about how bad Chiarot/Seider have been, but take a look where Sammy/Dahlin are

Chychrun - Ghost

 

[StrompTroller]

Sergachev is not a top pairing dman.

Our big three are better than the three you list for Tampa.

Hedman -> Dahlin. Eventually Power will be at this level. He is already better than Sergachev

McDonagh -> Sammy already there and has upside.


Tampa spread things out like they did because they only had 3 top 4 dmen of which only Hedman/McDonagh were trusted with heavy 5v5 minutes. Cernak was a 4/5 at the time and Schenn/Rutta were bottom pairing level.

If we acquired Chychrun we would have 5 dmen capable of at least top 4 minutes and 3 or 4 of whom who could be trusted with heavy 5v5 minutes.

I don’t think posters fully appreciate how much talent we already have on defense, let alone what it would look like with Chychrun in the mix.

Dahlin might be closing in on Hedman. McD was head and shoulders above Power at the given moment. Sammy is better than Serg will ever be.

That ignores the fact we go from comparing Bryson and fitz to Schenn etc....

 

[Snippit]

I personally don't see acquiring Chychrun as a pressing need. A big 3 of Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson going forward is more than adequate - you don't need another young (expensive) core piece on top of that, which Chychrun is. If the price is right, sure. Not sure I would want to give up any of Ostlund/Kulich/Savoie. Especially when our top 3 D are already LHD, and our best D prospect (Johnson) is also LHD.

In the short-term, there are surely other (cheaper) options to ride out the injury wave.

 

[Chainshot]

...(and Chychrun)...

Four draftees from the Sabres in that upper right quadrant...

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Four draftees from the Sabres in that upper right quadrant...

McNabb, Zadorov 3/4 ? (old eyes)

and one former asset near the top of elite as well (Montour w/ Forsling)?
Miller's not horrible either

 

[Weltschmerz]

McNabb, Zadorov 3/4 ? (old eyes)

Borgen, his name is written under the line though.

 

[BG82]

I heard Chychryn had one. Heaven forbid you hear or read something that isnt accurate lol

 

[joshjull]

Or since a lot of people disagree with you, maybe it’s not such an unrealistic thing to say what a team might do with four top pairing guys?

I’m not saying they would spread them out, but I think it’s a reasonable thing to do with such a rare fortune of talent

You’re very persistent, like a dirty dog on a bone

When I said it’s unrealistic earlier in the thread I was thinking of Power getting his 5v5 ice time cut 4-5mins a night from 19+ to 14-15mins (had him on the 3rd pair) I didn’t post it but thats what I was thinking. I just don’t see that happening.

But this post you just quoted was specifically addressing the @Der Jaeger argument Not about that. The comment about our talent is in the context of that. I think its true that posters don’t appreciate how good our defense is already. I’ll explain why…….

1) We already have a big 3 already on par, arguably better, than Tampa‘s big 3 at the time. It will certainly be a lot better as Power/Sammy grow and gain more experience.

2) Cooper didn’t have a clear top 4 because he didn’t trust anyone but his top 3 to get top 4 minutes. Cernak was closest but not quite. Whereas we currently have a clearcut and good top 4 (when healthy).

The funny thing is Der Jaeger’s argument actually makes more sense applied to this season(if we ignore Joker). If we add Chychrun it doens;t make much sense to compare how a team used 3 dmen they trusted with top 4 minutes to a team that would have 5 options.

 

[Der Jaeger]

You’re very persistent, like a dirty dog on a bone

When I said it’s unrealistic earlier in the thread I was thinking of Power getting his 5v5 ice time cut 4-5mins a night from 19+ to 14-15mins (had him on the 3rd pair) I didn’t post it but thats what I was thinking. I just don’t see that happening.

But this post you just quoted was specifically addressing the @Der Jaeger argument Not about that. The comment about our talent is in the context of that. I think its true that posters don’t appreciate how good our defense is already. I’ll explain why…….

1) We already have a big 3 already on par, arguably better, than Tampa‘s big 3 at the time. It will certainly be a lot better as Power/Sammy grow and gain more experience.

2) Cooper didn’t have a clear top 4 because he didn’t trust anyone but his top 3 to get top 4 minutes. Cernak was closest but not quite. Whereas we currently have a clearcut and good top 4 (when healthy).

The funny thing is Der Jaeger’s argument actually makes more sense applied to this season(if we ignore Joker). If we add Chychrun it doens;t make much sense to compare how a team used 3 dmen they trusted with top 4 minutes to a team that would have 5 options.

I'm just chiming in for the fun of it, I really don't think Adams should trade for Chychrun. I'm just bored and like the thought experiment.

The current Sabres situation would be most comparable if Dahlin was at LD and Granato split Samuelsson, Dahlin, and Power up on three pairs. Then went to 2 pairs during crunch time.

I think the Chychrun idea is doable from a functional aspect (eg: having a 1st paring defender on your 3rd pair). I just don't know if I want to pay that type of cost. I'd much rather go working with Nashville on some sort of Fabbro/Sissons/Jeannot type of deal.

But I also think Adams is going to need to make one big trade sometime in the next 2 years, a prospects for player type of deal. Maybe similar to the O'Reilly deal. There will be a logjam at forward if he doesn't.

 

[Irie]

Remember.....this first round pick you covet has more than a 70% chance of NEVER becoming an NHL player that plays 100 games or more. Probably less than 5-10% that they become a core player. So if you can trade it for a 100% chance at a genuine NHL player with term and control, its a no brainer. I wouldn't do it for a rental, but a 22-26 year old known NHL quantity than fits our needs and system? Absolutely that pick is in play. Even Rosen, Savoie, Ostlund may not ever be NHL players. So why are we afraid to move them if the deal is right?

You can't really apply prospect success probability charts as a blanket statement to all drafts as if all drafts and prospects are created equal.

That would be like saying Eichel and Reinhardt had the exact same chance of being good players because they were both selected 2nd overall.

It will always be draft by draft and pick by pick specific.

 

[Bendium]

You can't really apply prospect success probability charts as a blanket statement to all drafts as if all drafts and prospects are created equal.

That would be like saying Eichel and Reinhardt had the exact same chance of being good players because they were both selected 2nd overall.

It will always be draft by draft and pick by pick specific.

I hear you, but using the Eichel/Rienhart argument does not apply, as they were both 2nd round picks, and we know how they turned out. Using historical averages, you have to look at us picking say 13-20. In that range, history is going to be a good indicator of your chances. Even if this draft is deeper, your talking a couple picks higher value, assuming you hit on the pick.

People overvalue picks. You can build the core of your team over time thru the draft, but you will have to fill in around the core with trades and UFA's. Right now are argueably close to having 6 core forwards and three core dmen. To finish the core we need a goalie, 1 dman, and 1-2 forwards. We have a ton of top prospects in the forward pipeline, but almost nothing on D and Goalie. So if you can fill in any of those core piece with trades that include your 1st. Its time.