Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[JJ18Sniper]

I'm not convinced that this would happen. He'd be relatively sheltered at 2C and Tavares was doing fine. He's a level or two above Nino or Strome.

Talent wise? Sure. He had maturity issues in Boston (partying, being late and a number of bad rumors around affairs) which eventually contributed to him being traded. I'm not convinced we would have solved that type of behavior in NY.

I believe he played RW early in his career in Boston as he had Bergeron and Krejci ahead of him.

 

[12Dog]

I was convinced Johansen was the pick and quite honestly was intrigued by Bjugstad. I liked the Nino pick and Nelson wound up being better than all three.

Nino was ruined by Wang’s cap circumventing


He wasn’t ready for NHL, played garbage minutes with garbage players

 

[Osakahaus]

Nino was ruined by Wang’s cap circumventing


He wasn’t ready for NHL, played garbage minutes with garbage players

Seriously that gave a lot of hurt to his development. Sure it netted Cal Clutterbuck, but I would've loved to have Nino here as a viable 3rd liner or even 2nd liner.

 

[IslesNorway]

I think it'll be a JGP trade eventually with one of the 2nds, and the Islanders use their 1st to draft a guy who can be pro-ready by 2025.

They will not draft anyone with that 1st rounder. It'll be traded for a young, cost controlled player a la Romanov, OR it will be used in a blowout trade to get rid of some of the ridiculous contracts we have.

Only one 2nd will be used to draft someone.

 

[JJ18Sniper]

Nino was ruined by Wang’s cap circumventing


He wasn’t ready for NHL, played garbage minutes with garbage players

Pandolfo and Reasoner were great linemates!

 

[miscs75]

Pandolfo and Reasoner were great linemates!

Can we bring back Dean Mcammond? I need more sticks for the stockpile. I’m running out.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I think in all likelihood they run it back again, this time with a full training camp of Roy. Theoretically if Martin and Clutterbuck are not back then there are three-ish open winger spots, two top 6 and one bottom 6. They let Tsyplakov, Maggio, Jeffries, Ishkakhov, Fasching, Gauthier, Dufour, Holmstrom, and Wahlstrom duke it out for them. My bet would be Tsyplakov and Holmstrom locking down 2 of the spots, and maybe Jeffries getting the other.

This would put us in a spot where better coaching and Sorokin getting right theoretically is more than enough to keep us in the playoffs… but in the case that it isn’t, it gives us a couple of high value assets at the deadline in Nelson and Palmieri. It’ll also bring us a year closer to the end of Lee and Pageau’s contracts, potentially making them cheaper to move if we still feel it’s necessary.

In this scenario we could potentially make 4-6 first round picks over the next 3 drafts which theoretically replenishes our prospect pool as the cap rises. That would all be basically from not making the playoffs this upcoming season. It could be seen as sort of a win-win spot, depending on how your glass looks.

 

[JJ18Sniper]

The NY post is speculating that Igor's extension is going to be ~12 million AAV, a new goalie threshold surpassing both Price and Bobrovski.

As the cap grows 5% each of the next 2 years, the AAV amounts to about ~13% of the cap, which is similar to what Lundqvist was at during the previous era when he made 8.5 AAV.

If Sorokin can get his positioning fixed and back on track, his 8.25 million AAV could become quite a bargain. Until then, it's a concerning amount committed.

 

[impaaaaaact]

O

I think in all likelihood they run it back again, this time with a full training camp of Roy. Theoretically if Martin and Clutterbuck are not back then there are three-ish open winger spots, two top 6 and one bottom 6. They let Tsyplakov, Maggio, Jeffries, Ishkakhov, Fasching, Gauthier, Dufour, Holmstrom, and Wahlstrom duke it out for them. My bet would be Tsyplakov and Holmstrom locking down 2 of the spots, and maybe Jeffries getting the other.

This would put us in a spot where better coaching and Sorokin getting right theoretically is more than enough to keep us in the playoffs… but in the case that it isn’t, it gives us a couple of high value assets at the deadline in Nelson and Palmieri. It’ll also bring us a year closer to the end of Lee and Pageau’s contracts, potentially making them cheaper to move if we still feel it’s necessary.

In this scenario we could potentially make 4-6 first round picks over the next 3 drafts which theoretically replenishes our prospect pool as the cap rises. That would all be basically from not making the playoffs this upcoming season. It could be seen as sort of a win-win spot, depending on how your glass looks.

In all likelihood, this is what I think we run out:

Barzal - Horvat - Tsyplakov
Iskhakov - Nelson - Palmieri
Lee - Pageau - Engvall
McLean - Cizikas - Holmstrom
Fasching/Gauthier

Romanov/Dobson
Pelech/Pulock
Reilly/Mayfield
Bolduc

Sorokin
Varlamov

If you’re firmly in the playoff picture at the deadline, you make small additions using assets like Bolduc or George. If you’re on the cusp you deal Nelson and Palmieri, and potentially shed Pageau in the offseason which should make us pretty bad in 2 years. Those two seasons become your reload and give you the opportunity to re-tool.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

I think in all likelihood they run it back again, this time with a full training camp of Roy. Theoretically if Martin and Clutterbuck are not back then there are three-ish open winger spots, two top 6 and one bottom 6. They let Tsyplakov, Maggio, Jeffries, Ishkakhov, Fasching, Gauthier, Dufour, Holmstrom, and Wahlstrom duke it out for them. My bet would be Tsyplakov and Holmstrom locking down 2 of the spots, and maybe Jeffries getting the other.

This would put us in a spot where better coaching and Sorokin getting right theoretically is more than enough to keep us in the playoffs… but in the case that it isn’t, it gives us a couple of high value assets at the deadline in Nelson and Palmieri. It’ll also bring us a year closer to the end of Lee and Pageau’s contracts, potentially making them cheaper to move if we still feel it’s necessary.

In this scenario we could potentially make 4-6 first round picks over the next 3 drafts which theoretically replenishes our prospect pool as the cap rises. That would all be basically from not making the playoffs this upcoming season. It could be seen as sort of a win-win spot, depending on how your glass looks.

Don't think Lou can or will do this.

If we learned anything this season, there can be no rinse and repeat.

The suggestion that we simply add a joker from Europe and then fill holes from within is (or definitely should be) a non-option for Lou.

Roy has surely said who he wants to continue working with and who he'd like to work with, if possible.

But the team as was for the bulk of the past two seasons isn't wtihin striking distance.

Some ???s can only be answered with additions and subtractions.

 

[Osakahaus]

The NY post is speculating that Igor's extension is going to be ~12 million AAV, a new goalie threshold surpassing both Price and Bobrovski.

As the cap grows 5% each of the next 2 years, the AAV amounts to about ~13% of the cap, which is similar to what Lundqvist was at during the previous era when he made 8.5 AAV.

If Sorokin can get his positioning fixed and back on track, his 8.25 million AAV could become quite a bargain. Until then, it's a concerning amount committed.

Sorokin will be fine

 

[impaaaaaact]

Don't think Lou can or will do this.

If we learned anything this season, there can be no rinse and repeat.

The suggestion that we simply add a joker from Europe and then fill holes from within is (or definitely should be) a non-option for Lou.

Roy has surely said who he wants to continue working with and who he'd like to work with, if possible.

But the team as was for the bulk of the past two seasons isn't wtihin striking distance.

Some ???s can only be answered with additions and subtractions.

I think that you can argue that last year’s team with the Sorokin we’ve had every year except last is a team within striking distance. Add maybe a 2 or 3 point coaching bump and a potential downward swing from the Canes and potentially Boston as well and we are right in there.

I think Lou has shown that he has carte Blanche to do whatever he wants. He’s in his 80s, he’s not here to take shit from anyone - he’s going to do what he thinks is best for the team. I just won’t be surprised at all if that is once again standing pat/running back the team he built.

The move that I personally would like to see is moving out Pelech for a top 6 winger. If you can make a hockey trade like that, I think you do it. But I don’t think it makes sense right now to use picks/prospects to move out bad contracts. That extra cap room will most likely be used to… sign free agents to inflated contracts. If there’s no hockey trade that makes sense, I think running it back is the right option, even if it isn’t the popular one.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I’ll say this as well - we are a team built from the net out… so if your franchise goalie has the worst year of his career and your PK is historically bad and you STILL make the playoffs there’s a silver lining there. These were strengths of ours through all of the other playoff years, and if you zoom out a little bit it’s quite possible last season was a blip. It would be difficult to see either of those getting worse or even staying the same, and I’m of the mind that the Sorokin issue will more or less fix itself in the offseason.

The PK is another issue entirely, but I think it’s fair to assume that Desrosier will be taking that over this camp and we won’t be running the same system out. I think having Mayfield back and healthy will be helpful there as well. Call me crazy but I’d love to see Barzal out there on the PK. I think he’s the type of guy who rises to a challenge and I think his speed will help keep other teams honest.

Bring in a PK specialist to play on the fourth line if you want - or if it’s a top 6 player make sure it’s someone like Lindholm who can potentially help out there. But any swings at big name scoring free agents don’t really feel like they address the issues we actually had last season.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

Yes, we all need to be a little more realistic in accepting this is Lou Lamoriello we are talking about and he just isn’t going to change his way of doing things on the fly, regardless of how much we may want him to.

The Islanders need arguably 2 top six players and another puck moving defenseman- and that is near impossible to get with a little over 6 million in cap space and a roster filled with immovable contracts. If that wasn’t bad enough, they have a GM who awards blind loyalty to players and often overpays to keep them, despite the obvious hamstringing that does to our finances.

It doesn’t take a genius to realize what he is looking to do now after the trade he just made to pick up another second-round pick either, as he is looking to accumulate more assets (and it has to be draft picks since because of him our prospect pool is baron) so he can unload one of those bad contracts he personally handed out.

I think he realizes all four of Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Noah Dobson and Ilya Sorokin are untouchables and he probably puts Alexander Romanov in that same boat since we finally saw some progress that justified his trading for him using one of the now 4 straight traded first round picks on him. Zero first round picks this decade and everyone knows that he is likely looking to make it five in a row with the now 20th overall pick as his best asset.

He also understands that you can’t trade your other two 30-goal scorers in Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri either, not when you are looking to add to the top 6 for more scoring as it is. Unfortunately though they are the Islanders most tradeable players because of said 30-goal seasons they are coming off of and the fact that both are in the final years of their contract at a respectable 6 and 5 million cap charge.

33-year old center Casey Cizikas and 36-year old goaltender Semyon Varlamov have some value of course, but there respective 3-years remaining on sub-3 million per year contracts are actually too important to move, especially the later and how he took over as the #1 netminder during Sorokin’s struggles. Trading either would do little to help our cap space anyways.

That leaves six players, 3 forwards (Anders Lee, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Pierre Engvall) and 3 defenseman (Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech and Scott Mayfield) and each of them come with their own challenges in any proposed transaction.

Engvall and Mayfield are all but untradeable, not necessarily because of their yearly cost (3 and 3.5 million respectively) but because of the six years remaining on each of their deals after Lou signed them to ludicrous 7-year contracts last offseason. Pierre responded with a meager 10 goals, despite some 2 minutes more of ice time; while shooting a woeful 7.8% while Scott struggled for half the season (0 goals and 5 points in 41 games) before succumbing to a broken ankle and missing the entire second half.

The two other blueliners (Pulock and Pelech) are both serviceable but have digressed considerably since signing their new contracts a few years ago, mainly due to injuries where they have both “averaged” 63 games over the last four seasons. Only one season for both of them have they NOT missed 20+ games and to make matters worse they both come with full no-trade clauses on their around 6 million per year contracts with 5+ years left (you have to wait until 2027 for Ryan’s and next July for Adam’s to become modified). It is going to be hard enough to upgrade with one of them (and we badly need another puck moving offensive D-man, something neither of them are good at) via trade without the full clauses, but now it is near impossible; to say nothing about needing to replace one of them if we do trade one for a scoring forward.

That leaves the two forwards in Lee and Pageau, but they have also regressed offensively and still have two years left on their respective contracts at 7 and 5 million per and have modified no-trade lists of 15/16 teams. Lee’s 37-points in 81 games was his worst offensive output for a full season and Pageau’s even less inspiring 33 in 82 games was his worst as an Islander; and because of this Lou will likely have to attach an asset just to upgrade on either of them. A sliver lining however is the amount of cashed owed to both players as despite the 14 and 10 million cap hits they bring over the next two seasons only 10.35 and 7.5 actual cash is owed to them, since both of them signed early bonus and front loaded contracts.

For me it is rather simple when evaluating this roster and what “needs” to happen and that means both Anders and JPG need to go and Lou needs to convince one of the NTC second line blueliners to waive as well, but I don’t think he will entertain much of that. The alternative is trading away his valuable assets (particularly Nelson, Palmeiri and even Varlamov) and sacrificing 2024-25 by adding more assets and young prospects/players to a team needing them. He simply isn’t doing the later.

I actually worry about new contracts being handed out to some of our free-agents (Cal Clutterbuck and Matt Martin specifically) and/or extensions to players he should just let ride out their current deals (Brock and Kyle, because of their respective ages of 33 and 34 next season) as well as entertain trading them at the mid-season deadline if the year is lost.

It is why I went to Cap Friendly and made 3 projections- labeling them “What he should do, but wont”, a “Realistic Hope with Lou” and a “Likely Lou”…..

Obviously the three differences has Lou trading 3 of those players, 2 and then a more realistic one (and my guess is Pageau) in these projections…

What Lou Should Do But Wont -A - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Create your own team. Trade, sign, recall, reassign, and buyout players as though you were your favourite teams general manager.

www.capfriendly.com

Realistic Hope with Lou- B - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Create your own team. Trade, sign, recall, reassign, and buyout players as though you were your favourite teams general manager.

www.capfriendly.com

Likely Lou- C - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Create your own team. Trade, sign, recall, reassign, and buyout players as though you were your favourite teams general manager.

www.capfriendly.com

 

[Osakahaus]

The PK is another issue entirely, but I think it’s fair to assume that Desrosier will be taking that over this camp and we won’t be running the same system out. I think having Mayfield back and healthy will be helpful there as well. Call me crazy but I’d love to see Barzal out there on the PK. I think he’s the type of guy who rises to a challenge and I think his speed will help keep other teams honest.

honestly, its why I wish the isles go HARD for a guy like Lorentz or Noesen as well. Forecheck forecheck forecheck. we need that pressure badly.

Obviously the three differences has Lou trading 3 of those players, 2 and then a more realistic one (and my guess is Pageau) in these projections…

What Lou Should Do But Wont -A - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Create your own team. Trade, sign, recall, reassign, and buyout players as though you were your favourite teams general manager.

www.capfriendly.com

Realistic Hope with Lou- B - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Create your own team. Trade, sign, recall, reassign, and buyout players as though you were your favourite teams general manager.

www.capfriendly.com

Likely Lou- C - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Create your own team. Trade, sign, recall, reassign, and buyout players as though you were your favourite teams general manager.

www.capfriendly.com

of all of these, i would personally like the third one, but B isnt bad either. Kayliev/Carrick/Holmstrom should be a half decent fourth
line, but I kinda fear that elevated role for Cizikas will hurt long term.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

honestly, its why I wish the isles go HARD for a guy like Lorentz or Noesen as well. Forecheck forecheck forecheck. we need that pressure badly.


of all of these, i would personally like the third one, but B isnt bad either. Kayliev/Carrick/Holmstrom should be a half decent fourth
line, but I kinda fear that elevated role for Cizikas will hurt long term.

Well I think it is pretty obvious that the overall progression of our wingers will determine whether Barzal returns back to center and allows CC to remain on the 4th line, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely Lou adding a forward who can play the middle should he in fact trade JGP. Personally, I dont think it hurts us much and certainly not compared to better top two lines being out there a majority of the time. I am almost convinced that Ehlers is the target here...

 

[Throttle]

This would be the ‘second’ offseason of the Sorokin issue…

 

[impaaaaaact]

This would be the ‘second’ offseason of the Sorokin issue…

Wait, which one of these years was an issue?

His career SV% would have been behind only Hellebuyck this year as far as starters go - his playoff % behind only Swayman and Shesterkin. And that's all including his rough numbers this season. If Sorokin gets right the team gets right - and much to the dismay of many posters on this board we're built to be a perennial playoff team for the next 5 or so years.

 

[Lights911]

This would be the ‘second’ offseason of the Sorokin issue…

Was there really any issue with Sorokin last offseason? He didn't perform well in the six playoff games but was the only reason they got there. Hopefully Roy tightens up the "unleashed" style of play and Sorokin's workload can be limited and he can get back to his game.

 

[Throttle]

Wait, which one of these years was an issue?View attachment 879522

His career SV% would have been behind only Hellebuyck this year as far as starters go - his playoff % behind only Swayman and Shesterkin. And that's all including his rough numbers this season. If Sorokin gets right the team gets right - and much to the dismay of many posters on this board we're built to be a perennial playoff team for the next 5 or so years.

The Sorokin issue started in the Carolina series two seasons ago, which carried over to this past season. So, yes, this will be the second offseason.

Handclaps to helping the team make the playoffs, but if you kinda stink in them, we’ll, that’s an issue.

 

[impaaaaaact]

The Sorokin issue started in the Carolina series two seasons ago, which carried over to this past season. So, yes, this will be the second offseason.

Handclaps to helping the team make the playoffs, but if you kinda stink in them, we’ll, that’s an issue.

He let in a couple of bad goals that series for sure, but still walked away with a .924 save percentage. I can see the line you're drawing but I think he was way worse this year than he was last playoff.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Obviously the three differences has Lou trading 3 of those players, 2 and then a more realistic one (and my guess is Pageau) in these projections…

What Lou Should Do But Wont -A - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Create your own team. Trade, sign, recall, reassign, and buyout players as though you were your favourite teams general manager.

www.capfriendly.com

Realistic Hope with Lou- B - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Create your own team. Trade, sign, recall, reassign, and buyout players as though you were your favourite teams general manager.

www.capfriendly.com

Likely Lou- C - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Create your own team. Trade, sign, recall, reassign, and buyout players as though you were your favourite teams general manager.

www.capfriendly.com

Maybe it's just a big fear of mine in light of Lou not having found a way to get rid of Bailey other than to pawn off a second (which I felt was failure), but Bailey wasn't a guy he acquired and well, he just couldn't play anymore.

Pageau is a Lou guy. And he can still play.

There are plenty of teams out there that could use him and several have too many youngsters in the organization to sign 'em all anyways.

If paying someone is what it takes to move him, you don't move him.

I'll be shocked - and terribly disappointed in the owners - if Lou's allowed to go that route again.

It would be utter failure, especially in light of the fact that this was actually a guy Lou paid to bring in and then dished out that long contract to. You wanna move Pageau and 2nd, then you better be getting a useful return in the process.

More "cap space and a roster spot" just doesn't cut it here.

***
I know many don't think about it, but things still reek around these parts for Lou having been allowed to separate from Trotz just to hire Lambert and then get to fire him as well with no consequence. We've seen too many instances in the world of pro sports where that meant the GM takes his hat too.

 

[MJF]

There are plenty of teams out there that could use him and several have too many youngsters in the organization to sign 'em all anyways.

If paying someone is what it takes to move him, you don't move him.

I'll be shocked - and terribly disappointed in the owners - if Lou's allowed to go that route again.

It would be utter failure, especially in light of the fact that this was actually a guy Lou paid to bring in and then dished out that long contract to. You wanna move Pageau and 2nd, then you better be getting a useful return in the process.

More "cap space and a roster spot" just doesn't cut it here.

Which is why I say it’s too late to rebuild now. The number of players Lou would have to attach a draft pick to in order to trade (5 by my count) makes a rebuild self-defeating.

I know many don't think about it, but things still reek around these parts for Lou having been allowed to separate from Trotz just to hire Lambert and then get to fire him as well with no consequence. We've seen too many instances in the world of pro sports where that meant the GM takes his hat too.

Lou committed malpractice by not finding a way to keep Trotz in the organization, and then hiring Lambert without doing a thorough search for a coach first.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Lou committed malpractice by not finding a way to keep Trotz in the organization, and then hiring Lambert without doing a thorough search for a coach first.

Well-worded!

#HittingTheNailOnTheHead

 

[YearlyLottery]

O

In all likelihood, this is what I think we run out:

Barzal - Horvat - Tsyplakov
Iskhakov - Nelson - Palmieri
Lee - Pageau - Engvall
McLean - Cizikas - Holmstrom
Fasching/Gauthier

Romanov/Dobson
Pelech/Pulock
Reilly/Mayfield
Bolduc

Sorokin
Varlamov

If you’re firmly in the playoff picture at the deadline, you make small additions using assets like Bolduc or George. If you’re on the cusp you deal Nelson and Palmieri, and potentially shed Pageau in the offseason which should make us pretty bad in 2 years. Those two seasons become your reload and give you the opportunity to re-tool.

I am not directing this at you but rather the mere possibility of this happening. Roy is the third coach in in three seasons to have a disappointing ending to the season with this team. Running it back is a mistake not because they will miss the playoffs but rather because this group has proven to only be a bottom tier playoff team.