Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[CupHolders]

We are paying $5m for a 3C who is solid in the faceoff circle and is decent on penalty killing. Has 3 5v5 goals all year and has been on PP1 majority of the time with 29 points. He is not worth the money or near what we gave up to get him

Ignoring his playoff runs, and focusing on this year only…

A league leading penalty kill. And one of the better producers on what has been until recently an underperforming power play.

But hold onto his 5v5 stats as if he doesn’t routinely face the opposing teams best players in a shut down role. All the while having to baby sit whatever AHL call up needing to acclimate.

 

[xECK29x]

Ignoring his playoff runs, and focusing on this year only…

A league leading penalty kill. And one of the better producers on what has been until recently an underperforming power play.

But hold onto his 5v5 stats as if he doesn’t routinely face the opposing teams best players in a shut down role. All the while having to baby sit whatever AHL call up needing to acclimate.

Just want to further add to the discussion here, Pageau gets some of the hardest matchups of anyone in the league and is still able to not only recover the puck or deny a scoring chance in the own end but also get the puck out both by carrying or passing at a very high rate. Yes offensively his numbers drag his overall value down along with his lack of PK time, I think he is on the 2nd unit if at all, Lambert may be saving his minutes for 5-on-5, have to dig into that.

He is also 23rd in the league at faceoffs accoring to ELO which factors in faceoff win percentages across all zones. NHL Faceoff Stats and Elo ratings

 

[periferal]

Lou isn’t being extended

Well how do you KNOW that and...Do you even know when his contract is up?


(And if his son Chris just takes over as GM the dark years will continue).

 

[doublechili]

People underestimate the importance of a good 3C.

Put JGP in PIT's lineup all year and they're safely in the playoffs instead of probably missing them.

 

[periferal]

Can we just stop with the dumb idea of trading Nelson? He's the solution, not the problem.

He's also 31 on a team that probably won't be a Cup contender while he's still a productive player. And he's one of the few assets this franchise has that another team would actually trade something valuable for.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

So, Pageau stinks at offense, stinks at defense, but that in between....

 

[xECK29x]

Well how do you KNOW that and...Do you even know when his contract is up?


(And if his son Chris just takes over as GM the dark years will continue).

Oh I was waiting for this, it has been mentioned and speculated that he and Trotz were signed to contracts of the same length, it's been mentioned by Gross, Kurz, and even Staple that this year was going to be his (and Trotz') final year on that original deal. Lou is President, he will likely take a step back from GM duties and hire a GM, the man is 80 entering into next year. Lou does not have a Governor title like Snow had so he is not a minority owner and could be removed or not extended by ownership.

I don't know why you keep spreading FUD about Chris, and I'm not even convinced you even like this team but just like to troll this forum.

 

[Top Corner]

Loved everything I saw from him. Drew two penalties, excellent forecheck, got pucks on net. Want to see more to see if he can sustain it.

That's what speed does for you, he's a threat to get to every loose puck, just need 5 more of him. players with speed an energy create turnovers which in turn improves our puck possession numbers and offensive opportunities.

 

[ekill08x]

People underestimate the importance of a good 3C.

Put JGP in PIT's lineup all year and they're safely in the playoffs instead of probably missing them.

Hes a solid player...not impactful enough for $5m a year and for what we spent just to get him. It was and always will be a horrible trade.

 

[steveat]

This might be a hot take, but I have the feeling that we are gonna go for 1 or 2 big moves.

We have 3 players on IR and if we keep winning, I would not put it past Lou to put Barzal on IR...why? Because we start accumulating MORE cap. To me, this means we are trying to have as much cap available for Lou to pull off some big moves.

Our cap at the TDL will be $7,732,009

If we can send cap the other way...a Meier is entirely possible. Who knows....

If the season goes sideways, we could take on cap for draft picks/prospects

 

[ekill08x]

This might be a hot take, but I have the feeling that we are gonna go for 1 or 2 big moves.

We have 3 players on IR and if we keep winning, I would not put it past Lou to put Barzal on IR...why? Because we start accumulating MORE cap. To me, this means we are trying to have as much cap available for Lou to pull off some big moves.

Our cap at the TDL will be $7,732,009

If we can send cap the other way...a Meier is entirely possible. Who knows....

If the season goes sideways, we could take on cap for draft picks/prospects

and what are we giving up? if lou trades another future 1 he should get fired immediately.

 

[steveat]

and what are we giving up? if lou trades another future 1 he should get fired immediately.

It's NOT Lou. It's ownership telling Lou to win now. Lou has to go for it. The ownership doesn't care about picks and prospects

 

[SI90]

Bruins giving a 1st + 3rd for Gavrikov. Trade mayfield!!

 

[Taswell]

If Carolina is truly interested in Pageau, I'd at least consider it. They have a lot of nice prospects that we could fill the barren cupboard a bit. We are rather center heavy as is, and he is kind of pricey for what he brings. He hasn't exactly been the picture of health either.

 

[ekill08x]

It's NOT Lou. It's ownership telling Lou to win now. Lou has to go for it. The ownership doesn't care about picks and prospects

Well then I stand by my "these idiot owners" comment from last week.

 

[periferal]

Oh I was waiting for this, it has been mentioned and speculated that he and Trotz were signed to contracts of the same length, it's been mentioned by Gross, Kurz, and even Staple that this year was going to be his (and Trotz') final year on that original deal. Lou is President, he will likely take a step back from GM duties and hire a GM, the man is 80 entering into next year. Lou does not have a Governor title like Snow had so he is not a minority owner and could be removed or not extended by ownership.

Lou needs to be removed period. Lou as President is just going to want to control the situation as he does everything else and you can be sire that will limit the amount of quality GM candidates that would want to work here.

I don't know why you keep spreading FUD about Chris, and I'm not even convinced you even like this team but just like to troll this forum.

I've both explained why Chris should not be GM and also why my love for this team affecting me as it does when they are headed in a bad direction (as they are now). For whatever reason you don't like me your mind is already made up about me and thus you wind up attacking/taking jabs at me at every turn as opposed to fully digesting my posts and replying in kind.

It's NOT Lou. It's ownership telling Lou to win now. Lou has to go for it. The ownership doesn't care about picks and prospects

Aside from the fact that Lou is acting very similar to how he did as GM of the Leafs and Devils, how do you know ownership is forcing his hand to "win now?"

Are you telling me that if Malkin/Ledecky told Lou to do whatever he wants that he be willing to do a rebuild if necessary?

 

[xECK29x]

Lou needs to be removed period. Lou as President is just going to want to control the situation as he does everything else and you can be sire that will limit the amount of quality GM candidates that would want to work here.




I've both explained why Chris should not be GM and also why my love for this team affecting me as it does when they are headed in a bad direction (as they are now). For whatever reason you don't like me your mind is already made up about me and thus you wind up attacking/taking jabs at me at every turn as opposed to fully digesting my posts and replying in kind.




Aside from the fact that Lou is acting very similar to how he did as GM of the Leafs and Devils, how do you know ownership is forcing his hand to "win now?"

Are you telling me that if Malkin/Ledecky told Lou to do whatever he wants that he be willing to do a rebuild if necessary?

I'm not getting sucked into this vortex with you, agree to disagree just don't spam this place with your opinions and conspiracy theories.

 

[doublechili]

Hes a solid player...not impactful enough for $5m a year and for what we spent just to get him. It was and always will be a horrible trade.

The Isles gave up late 1st and 2nd round picks (#28 and #59 overall picks) for Pageau.

I wouldn't be surprised that if Lou wanted to trade JGP right now, he could find a contender willing to pay similar assets and take on the contract.

 

[CupHolders]

Hes a solid player...not impactful enough for $5m a year and for what we spent just to get him. It was and always will be a horrible trade.

I sense that you are too fixated on the 3C position as a category. Moreover, that since he is a 3C that his contribution is only that of an interchangeable bottom six piece.

Personally, I don’t think it matters what position he’s listed as… it’s the quality of minutes that he provides. As already shown the competition he face’s already makes him more valuable than some second or first line players.

Similarly, folks on this board seem to equate all first rounders equally. It was a late pick. And I happen to be a Ridly Greig fan, and think he’ll be a good player.

It’s not as if that first rounder was a high enough pick to trade for a DeBrincat level scorer… which has also been brought up as a misguided comparable as if the Isles gave up a top 10 pick for Pageau instead of DeBrincat.

Listen clearly you feel strongly about this, and I don’t expect to change your mind. I’m also not against trading Pageau (or anyone) if it makes sense. But the notion of having to jump on a lower return to push him out? No thank you.

 

[SI90]

If Carolina is truly interested in Pageau, I'd at least consider it. They have a lot of nice prospects that we could fill the barren cupboard a bit. We are rather center heavy as is, and he is kind of pricey for what he brings. He hasn't exactly been the picture of health either.

To CAR- Pageau

To NYI- 23 or 24 2nd round pick + Ryan Suzuki + rights to Jackson Blake

 

[CupHolders]

Just want to further add to the discussion here, Pageau gets some of the hardest matchups of anyone in the league and is still able to not only recover the puck or deny a scoring chance in the own end but also get the puck out both by carrying or passing at a very high rate. Yes offensively his numbers drag his overall value down along with his lack of PK time, I think he is on the 2nd unit if at all, Lambert may be saving his minutes for 5-on-5, have to dig into that.

He is also 23rd in the league at faceoffs accoring to ELO which factors in faceoff win percentages across all zones. NHL Faceoff Stats and Elo ratings

View attachment 654127

Without ever seeing this chart… I am not at all surprised. He’s a quality player and I’m certain the majority of NHL people (not just Lou) see it too.

As for the PK, I suspect that Lane wants to balance overall minutes with Cizikas.

 

[doublechili]

A bit off topic, but relevant: here's an excerpt from an article about cap allocation (link to full article below):

FORWARDS
Main Role Players: 1C, 2C, 3C, 1W, 2W

Supporting Role Players: 1W, 2W, 3W, 3W, 4C, 4W, 4W

Max % of Salary Cap:

- ~14% to 1C (about 10.22M of 73M)

- ~10% to 2C (about 7.3 of 73M)

- ~7% to 3C (about 5.1M of 73M


This was from 2016 when the cap was $73M, but the interesting thing is that this person groups the top 3 Centers plus (only) 2 wingers as the most important forwards. I can't say that I disagree with that.

 

[MJF]

Ignoring his playoff runs, and focusing on this year only…

A league leading penalty kill. And one of the better producers on what has been until recently an underperforming power play.

But hold onto his 5v5 stats as if he doesn’t routinely face the opposing teams best players in a shut down role. All the while having to baby sit whatever AHL call up needing to acclimate.

Well said.

 

[CupHolders]

To CAR- Pageau

To NYI- 23 or 24 2nd round pick + Ryan Suzuki + rights to Jackson Blake

Honestly, if rumors of CAR being interested are to be believed. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are trying to do so by moving Kotakaniemi. I also think people would flip their “stuff” if that happened.

But I’ll also point out that Kotakaniemi was formerly a highly rated top ten first rounder, higher than the traded Pageau pick. The very kind of asset that we think Pageau wasn’t good enough to warrant.

 

[steveat]

Lou needs to be removed period. Lou as President is just going to want to control the situation as he does everything else and you can be sire that will limit the amount of quality GM candidates that would want to work here.




I've both explained why Chris should not be GM and also why my love for this team affecting me as it does when they are headed in a bad direction (as they are now). For whatever reason you don't like me your mind is already made up about me and thus you wind up attacking/taking jabs at me at every turn as opposed to fully digesting my posts and replying in kind.




Aside from the fact that Lou is acting very similar to how he did as GM of the Leafs and Devils, how do you know ownership is forcing his hand to "win now?"

Are you telling me that if Malkin/Ledecky told Lou to do whatever he wants that he be willing to do a rebuild if necessary?

It's been talked about a few times around the league...Kyper and Bourne, Elliote Friedman, Hockeybuzz...there's smoke...definitely smoke. Malkin/Ledecky wants a winning team so he can sell...they want to flip the Isles to make a profit. They are basically 2 Wangs and unfortunately 2 Wangs don't make a white. 8)

This also explains why that when they bought the team and brought in Lou, they didn't rebuild. 9 times out of 10 you get a rebuild, especially with this time of team.