Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[seafoam]

If they continue to string games together, I wonder if Lou inquires on the Henrique. With Barzal and Pageau on the shelf, he would be a good pick up if they can bank some points with all these games in hand.

 

[MarsTBOW]

If they continue to string games together, I wonder if Lou inquires on the Henrique. With Barzal and Pageau on the shelf, he would be a good pick up if they can bank some points with all these games in hand.

Henrique should not cost too much... I would be happy with him.

 

[JPIsles18]

Yet a team like Tampa transitioned from playoff chokers to Stanley Cup champions by investing in bottom six forwards (Goodrow, Coleman, etc.) and depth defenseman.

Do the Leafs have have fundamental problems compared to Tampa. IMO, yes they do.

But as you said, their problem was top six not producing. So you’re solution is taking money from elsewhere in the depth chart to double down on the inherent issue of putting too much money in a flawed top six.

You’re essentially championing the building strategy of the majority of HFBoards Leaf fans. Elite talent wins championships… and YES it does.

But they went too far in, with a top heavy lineup while trying to backfill depth positions.

I don't agree that they went too far in with a top heavy lineup. Aside from Tavares, their top guys are actually on value deals. That's how good they were. The Leafs have done incredibly well finding value in under valued players: Hyman, Bunting, Engvall, Jarnkrok. etc. Now they still don't have the forward depth, mostly because the cap has stagnated since they signed JT. They've been unlucky because the current playoff seeding is dumb and they had to play a deeper team with elite goaltending in the Lightning. They almost beat them last season.

This is what I hoped the Isles would do: have elite players, and backfill by finding under appreciated players like Parise. The issue has been a) overpaying for depth (pageau), and completely ignoring or not understanding the quality of players they have in the bottom 6. For the last two seasons, the Isles were banking on players on the wrong side of 30 to reverse their aging curves (most notably the fourth line). This inability to find value in the bottom 6 takes away the potential cap to make a run at a guy like Meier, or JG last offseason.

It's always better to pay elite talent, because regardless of what you pay them, they will aways outproduce their cap hit. Meanwhile the depth pieces you overpay (Pageau, Palmieri, etc) won't move the needle as much as teams hope.

 

[IslesNorway]

If they continue to string games together, I wonder if Lou inquires on the Henrique. With Barzal and Pageau on the shelf, he would be a good pick up if they can bank some points with all these games in hand.

How many times do we need him mentioned on this thread? Some people clearly has a hard on for him. A 33 year old making nearly $6 million next season as well? He is basically the last thing we need. We already have a bunch of guys like that. We need to get younger, faster and cheaper.

Had he been UFA it would be totally different story, but he is not. The Isles are in enough cap issues already to not tie up more cash for middle of the pack, mid-30s guys beyond this season.

 

[JPIsles18]

Fully agree. Signing and trading for 30+ players is the way to ensure this team is going nowhere for years to come. Rule No. 1 should be never to sign any player aged 30+ to more than 2 or 3 years. I mean, six years for Cizikas?? He is a fine player and loyal servant to the club but that way the roster never changes and goes stale. The more multi year dela the GM hands out, the more crippled he will be when it comes to trades, UFAs and upgrading the roster.

If some team is willing to take on any of our players with long term contracts then trading them is a no brainer, really.

Cizikas plays a value position who is dragged down by terrible linemates. The issue here isn't about paying 2.5 mil for a PK and defensive center, it's about not maximizing his potential by giving him competent players to play with. Cizikas underlying numbers are awful, but always improve when he is moved up in the lineup. Issue is he doesn't have the shooting talent to play higher in the lineup. By playing guys like Cizikas, Komarov, Holmstrom, etc on a line with a Barzal is that it drags his value down as well. The cost of bad depth, which is what the Isles currently have, is a ripple effect that hurts everyone's value.

Lou has been terrible at securing depth. Case in point is Andreoff. He may be the worst player in the NHL. Ross Johnston is even better. Holmstrom is awful too. You can't have bad players on a roster. You just can't. Margins are too thin.

 

[YearlyLottery]

I don't agree that they went too far in with a top heavy lineup. Aside from Tavares, their top guys are actually on value deals. That's how good they were. The Leafs have done incredibly well finding value in under valued players: Hyman, Bunting, Engvall, Jarnkrok. etc. Now they still don't have the forward depth, mostly because the cap has stagnated since they signed JT. They've been unlucky because the current playoff seeding is dumb and they had to play a deeper team with elite goaltending in the Lightning. They almost beat them last season.

This is what I hoped the Isles would do: have elite players, and backfill by finding under appreciated players like Parise. The issue has been a) overpaying for depth (pageau), and completely ignoring or not understanding the quality of players they have in the bottom 6. For the last two seasons, the Isles were banking on players on the wrong side of 30 to reverse their aging curves (most notably the fourth line). This inability to find value in the bottom 6 takes away the potential cap to make a run at a guy like Meier, or JG last offseason.

It's always better to pay elite talent, because regardless of what you pay them, they will aways outproduce their cap hit. Meanwhile the depth pieces you overpay (Pageau, Palmieri, etc) won't move the needle as much as teams hope.

Toronto has lost in the first round five straight years. One of them choking up a 3-1 series lead to Montreal. They also lost to the Columbus Blue Jackets. They've also lost to Boston as well.

Chalk it up however you want but Toronto is not a team to try and replicate. Something is wrong over there. They have had enough talent to compete for a Cup the day they signed Tavares.

 

[NC 1972]

Henrique should not cost too much... I would be happy with him.

Until he’s extended.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

We need to get younger, faster and cheaper.

Now why didn't Lou think of that??? What a senile idiot.

 

[Mike C]

Until he’s extended.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

It's been talked about a few times around the league...Kyper and Bourne, Elliote Friedman, Hockeybuzz...there's smoke...definitely smoke. Malkin/Ledecky wants a winning team so he can sell...they want to flip the Isles to make a profit. They are basically 2 Wangs and unfortunately 2 Wangs don't make a white. 8)

This also explains why that when they bought the team and brought in Lou, they didn't rebuild. 9 times out of 10 you get a rebuild, especially with this time of team.

Hogwash. Your tin foil hat is on too tightly.

 

[periferal]

This is what the Isles should be doing, albeit on a smaller scale. Trade Varlamov and Mayfield to recoup assets that can be used towards moving out some dead weight or acquiring players in the 25-28 age range that will fit in with our current core.

Except the fact that the Blues have THREE 1st round picks this year and several more prospects they could trade than us.

*Maybe* you could get a 1st from Mayfield, but you're not getting one from Varlamov, but all that doesn't matter because even if the Isles could mortgage more of their future to land Meier in a trade, they wouldn't be able to afford his next contract without getting rid of some untradable contracts, which would cost more futures to move.

And none of this really matters as long as we have a subpar coach behind the bench.

Lou has really driven us to a remote part of the country and kicked us out of the car. Going to take a while to hike to the nearest town for help.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

Except the fact that the Blues have THREE 1st round picks this year and several more prospects they could trade than us.

*Maybe* you could get a 1st from Mayfield, but you're not getting one from Varlamov, but all that doesn't matter because even if the Isles could mortgage more of their future to land Meier in a trade, they wouldn't be able to afford his next contract without getting rid of some untradable contracts, which would cost more futures to move.

And none of this really matters as long as we have a subpar coach behind the bench.

Lou has really driven us to a remote part of the country and kicked us out of the car. Going to take a while to hike to the nearest town for help.

My god

 

[danteipp]

Toronto has lost in the first round five straight years. One of them choking up a 3-1 series lead to Montreal. They also lost to the Columbus Blue Jackets. They've also lost to Boston as well.

Chalk it up however you want but Toronto is not a team to try and replicate. Something is wrong over there. They have had enough talent to compete for a Cup the day they signed Tavares.

Very well said. Anyone pointing to Toronto as a model of excellence is clearly missing that some of their top talent and elite players have simply NOT been willing to pay the price for a championship, at least so far.

Now, could they be the Oilers (right before they went on to finally beat the Islanders dynasty, after looking in the locker room and noticing that the Isles players left it all out on the ice) and start their own run? Maybe this year it will finally all come together for the Leafs. We will have to wait and see.

It did for Tampa as well, but it took a humiliation by Columbus and a GM change to get them over the hump for their latest run.

Every time I hear these ideas it brings me back to the line from "White Men Can't Jump" -

You'd rather look good and lose rather look bad and win, how many dinners did your necklace set your family back?

Do people really think Lou didn't want to bring in an elite talent to get them over the hump?

Of course he did/does and he tried to extend Tavares, sign Panarin, made a trade offer for Stone (who simply wanted to go to Vegas and not LI), etc.

When those moves didn't pan out, he has tried to get the last piece via trade and acquired players he knew he could extend. JGP and Palms were two of the better forwards available at both trade deadlines, he got them and signed them.

Of course part of the problem is that the Isles picks have been later in the recent drafts, since they won for several years, so that makes it that much harder to draft and develop or trade for true, elite level talent.

An example is the recent DeBrincat trade, where Ottawa gave up the No. 7 overall pick in a package, which would clearly trump anything the Isles could have offered in trade via a mid-round first. It also sounds like Fiala only wanted to go to LA, as he signed shortly after that trade.

Lou gave the Isles a puncher's chance several times and they might have beaten the Lightning if they didn't circumvent the cap multiple times and ice, what, 8 players on a penalty kill for a fluke, shorthanded goal?

That said, Lou has also seemingly adjusted a bit now going for two younger players in Romanov and Horvat.
I think we will see some retooling around younger, faster, skilled players at the top and the natural progression of cheaper, depth players like Dufour, Arnaud Durandeau, etc. At least those that aren't traded for immediate help, like Raty.

 

[danteipp]

I have also seen some people in the past pine for Kirby Dach and question why Lou didn't trade for him?
Well, as best as I can tell, Kirby Dach is essentially the forward version of Romanov. Both are young players, with some skill, who are learning and growing on the job since they were rushed to the NHL. They both have warts to overcome.

Because for all of the hate that Romanov gets, he has a 3.1 point share total. Meanwhile Dach has a 2.8 point share.

Now maybe there are more intricate stats that show Dach is on the verge of a big breakout down the line, but I don't necessarily see it and I think they both just need a little more time, experience and patience.

Patience that some fans simply don't have.

 

[WangMustGo]

I have also seen some people in the past pine for Kirby Dach and question why Lou didn't trade for him?
Well, as best as I can tell, Kirby Dach is essentially the forward version of Romanov. Both are young players, with some skill, who are learning and growing on the job since they were rushed to the NHL. They both have warts to overcome.

Because for all of the hate that Romanov gets, he has a 3.1 point share total. Meanwhile Dach has a 2.8 point share.

Now maybe there are more intricate stats that show Dach is on the verge of a big breakout down the line, but I don't necessarily see it and I think they both just need a little more time, experience and patience.

Patience that some fans simply don't have.

Personally i would much rather have Dach. He is on pace for 53 points over a full season playing on a bottom team. Best case he becomes a 70-80 point center.

Right now Romanov is a bottom pairing defenseman with limited offensive upside. Maybe he develops into a good second pairing defenseman byt hes not there yet.

 

[Top Corner]

Toronto has lost in the first round five straight years. One of them choking up a 3-1 series lead to Montreal. They also lost to the Columbus Blue Jackets. They've also lost to Boston as well.

Chalk it up however you want but Toronto is not a team to try and replicate. Something is wrong over there. They have had enough talent to compete for a Cup the day they signed Tavares.

i remember the Isles in the late 70's before the cup wins were always getting knocked out before their time. Finally adding a Butch Goring was the missing pc. Toronto is closer to a cup than we are but until they find the missing pc(s) they will still end the season cupless much like us

 

[Top Corner]

When hearing of the Romanov deal, I was excited that we picked up a young apparently to most MTl fans, Godly defenseman but have since watched him play and feel that it might have been an overpayment as i don't see a lot of upside. I did however catch a few WJC games and at the time thought Mtl had gotten a steal in the 2nd. Funny how rushing players sometimes stunts their growth

 

[WangMustGo]

i remember the Isles in the late 70's before the cup wins were always getting knocked out before their time. Finally adding a Butch Goring was the missing pc. Toronto is closer to a cup than we are but until they find the missing pc(s) they will still end the season cupless much like us

Im just hoping Matthews and Marner walk at the end of their contracts.

 

[danteipp]

Personally i would much rather have Dach. He is on pace for 53 points over a full season playing on a bottom team. Best case he becomes a 70-80 point center.

Right now Romanov is a bottom pairing defenseman with limited offensive upside. Maybe he develops into a good second pairing defenseman byt hes not there yet.

Long term, Dach vs Romanov is a personal preference and their ultimate growth and development, or lack thereof, will tell the story.

But, if we are just using points, Dach is ranked #117 overall among forwards and Romanov is at #78 for defensemen.

Using a very non-scientific method, 32 NHL teams x their top-4 defensemen = 128 players, so Romanov is in the mix and not very far outside the top-64 in terms of points.

I am sure we can dig deeper into the numbers, but I have to think Dach gets far better offensive opportunities on Montreal than Romanov gets with the Isles.

People also say that Romanov is a "bottom-pairing defenseman", however, he got the tough minutes as the LHD1, while Pelech was out, and has logged 19:44 minutes in TOI and has a 61.8 dzS%. That is some tough sledding.

That is more than just a third-pairing defenseman and Romanov has (again) been forced to play far tougher minutes than expected. First with Montreal and now with the Isles, while learning new systems on the fly.

 

[MarsTBOW]

News today.... Andreoff was reassigned to Bridgeport
The Kid Looked Good!
WTF are they doing?

 

[danteipp]

News today.... Andreoff was reassigned to Bridgeport
The Kid Looked Good!
WTF are they doing?

Are you confusing Arnaud Durandeau (the younger Isles prospect) with Andy Andreoff (the 31-year old career AHLer)?

 

[MarsTBOW]

Are you confusing Arnaud Durandeau (the younger Isles prospect) with Andy Andreoff (the 31-year old career AHLer)?

Yes, I did...
Missed my Coffee this morning lmao!
Thanks for correcting me!

 

[PK Cronin]

News today.... Andreoff was reassigned to Bridgeport
The Kid Looked Good!
WTF are they doing?

At this point I'm waiting for my phone to ring. Could be any minute now.

 

[YearlyLottery]

i remember the Isles in the late 70's before the cup wins were always getting knocked out before their time. Finally adding a Butch Goring was the missing pc. Toronto is closer to a cup than we are but until they find the missing pc(s) they will still end the season cupless much like us

So now we are comparing the Toronto Maple Leafs who have not won a playoff series since 2002 to one of the greatest dynasties in the history of sports? Give me a break.

 

[danteipp]

So now we are comparing the Toronto Maple Leafs who have not won a playoff series since 2002 to one of the greatest dynasties in the history of sports? Give me a break.

But have you seen the spreadsheets that Dubas is using? By the way, they're real, and they're spectacular!!