Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[periferal]

Here is a post I made that had such a link. I have routinely brought up this point about the impact of the COVID flat cap, while providing sources. Yet here we are having the same conversation again focusing on Leo Komarov.

The fact that posters here keep returning to the Komarov contract while ignoring the impact of COVID... is essentially expecting perfection over reasonability. The Komarov deal was not great or good, but this notion that it was a singular or major cause for losing Toews... sorry but it was not.

No one (well at least not me) is saying that the Komarov deal was the "singular" cause for losing Toews, however it's completely disingenuous to say it wasn't at least part of the reason. If Lou had an additional 3M to work with when Toews was due a new contract then he could've kept him. I also agree that Covid pulled out the rug, but handing out bad contracts anytime is not good GMing as at some point it will always restrict your options.

 

[Islanders4Cups]

And that being said, the Komarov deal was very bad and if you just remove that we can keep Toews in 2020...And then trade Mayfield for the expansion draft.

And maybe not fall short by only a “too many men on the ice” Game 7 goal against a dynasty team from making and being favored in the Stanley Cup Finals. Like it or not, Komorov was a very valuable piece of that team. Shutdown forward and perfect for Trotz system.

More Monday morning QB crap and disrespect for the greatest Islander team in almost 40 years.

Lou did very little wrong with getting to that point and yes he is paying the price now. Did they peak in 2021 or can he make 2022 a bump in the road.

Let’s look forward and see what he does next. Either way, that ride was worth it as there cannot be much dispute every member of the team came as close as you can get to winning a cup.

 

[SI]

Literal WTF?

Food is necessary. Water intake is necessary. Signing any NHL player, much less Thomas Hickey (or Leo Komarov) at that point in his career, to a contract is the opposite of "necessary."

Lou gave Hickey a 4 year deal at 2.5M/year. At that very point when he did Hickey was a fringe NHL/AHL defenseman, and throughout the lifetime of the deal Hickey played in a total of 47 NHL games the rest of his career.

It was a horrible deal then, only confirmed by the passage of time.




Perfect. Well done.

The bold is not accurate - Hickey had established himself as regular NHL D man and was coming off his best year statistically.

He had a couple of big goals in the playoffs and played bigger than he was - he hit like a freight train, but wasn’t big enough to withstand that type of play. He was too small to kill penalties and wasn’t skilled enough to be a PP d man.

It is also worth mentioning that they lost DeHaan and Tavares and I guess they didn’t want to lose Hickey too- but they had Toews waiting in the AHL

The deal was too long for sure.

 

[danteipp]

The bold is not accurate - Hickey had established himself as regular NHL D man and was coming off his best year statistically.

He had a couple of big goals in the playoffs and played bigger than he was - he hit like a freight train, but wasn’t big enough to withstand that type of play. He was too small to kill penalties and wasn’t skilled enough to be a PP d man.

It is also worth mentioning that they lost DeHaan and Tavares and I guess they didn’t want to lose Hickey too- but they had Toews waiting in the AHL

The deal was too long for sure.

While I was not a big fan of Hickey, although I respect his effort and heart, you are right, he was coming off a surprisingly good season.

In terms of Point Share, he ranked as the #202 skater OVERALL in 2017-18 at 5.1 PS.

For perspective, other players around that number were: Ryan McDonagh at 5.3, Brayden McNabb at 5.2, Erik Johnson at 5.1, Mike Matheson at 5.1, Brent Seabrook at 4.9, etc.

I think de Haan leaving was a surprise to Lou, who he really wanted to keep him. The Isles defense was in transition and Lou made the call to bring back a vet for stability.

Amazingly, the Isles dodged a bigger bullet by not resigning de Haan at $4.55 million AAV, who was then promptly dumped by Carolina to the Blackhawks after one year.

de Haan leaving annoyed me, but seemingly got swept under the rug because it coincided with Tavares going to Toronto. But de Haan might have been the bigger head scratcher.

Here was a guy loved by the fans, ties to the community, had a bunch of friends on the team and was essentially one of the players protected via the side deal made by Snow with Vegas (and even though he was almost constantly injured, the organization continued to put their faith in him and treated him well).

Then at the first chance he gets, he bolts to Carolina for a few extra dollars and where he only knew one player in Skinner. Carolina also hadn't made the playoffs in nine years at the time.

All of that rubbed me the wrong way.

 

[LeapOnOver]

And maybe not fall short by only a “too many men on the ice” Game 7 goal against a dynasty team from making and being favored in the Stanley Cup Finals. Like it or not, Komorov was a very valuable piece of that team. Shutdown forward and perfect for Trotz system.

More Monday morning QB crap and disrespect for the greatest Islander team in almost 40 years.

Lou did very little wrong with getting to that point and yes he is paying the price now. Did they peak in 2021 or can he make 2022 a bump in the road.

Let’s look forward and see what he does next. Either way, that ride was worth it as there cannot be much dispute every member of the team came as close as you can get to winning a cup.

You mean as close as you can get to making it to the Stanley Cup finals don't you? They lost in game 7 of the conference finals, not the championship....

 

[BelovedIsles]

Why are we still talking about Toews? I think all bases have been covered on this former transaction. Let's set our sights onward to....September, err, October....and several alleged announcements.

 

[IslesNorway]

The Hickey deal was Lou panicking in the wake of the Tavares debacle. Anyone who watched the Islanders play that season (and before) knew well that Hickey wasn't good enough and leaving him to go to UFA was the right choice, but Lou came in after the season, and clearly mistook him for a proper NHL player. It was a terrible deal,.

Komarov served a purpose but four years??? Madness. 1-2 years is what a player like him should get. It's amazing how many bad deals hockey GMs can sign and get away with it.

 

[Isles72]

The Hickey deal was Lou panicking in the wake of the Tavares debacle. Anyone who watched the Islanders play that season (and before) knew well that Hickey wasn't good enough and leaving him to go to UFA was the right choice, but Lou came in after the season, and clearly mistook him for a proper NHL player. It was a terrible deal,.

Komarov served a purpose but four years??? Madness. 1-2 years is what a player like him should get. It's amazing how many bad deals hockey GMs can sign and get away with it.

I think we all winced at the leo and hickey deals . He seemed to smarten up once he brought in Pellagrino , his fmr assistant gm and ''cap guy'' from the Devils to join him on the island

 

[IslandersFan17]

I think we all winced at the leo and hickey deals . He seemed to smarten up once he brought in Pellagrino , his fmr assistant gm and ''cap guy'' from the Devils to join him on the island

We absolutely all did especially when I’m told the islanders were in a cap crunch and had to move an up and coming player out… DUE TO THE CAP CRUNCH LOU PUT US IN, by signing those types.

And apparently he’s going to do the same damn thing by signing Kadri

 

[Islanders4Cups]

You mean as close as you can get to making it to the Stanley Cup finals don't you? They lost in game 7 of the conference finals, not the championship....

Not the best english sentence but I thought it was clear

“ fall short by only a “too many men on the ice” Game 7 goal against a dynasty team from making and being favored in the Stanley Cup Finals”

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Except logically, when a team has that many players on its roster from the previous management, he absolutely gets some credit for the success. Can argue how much until we are blue in the face. If you go back and read your initial post (I reread but don't feel like bringing up another window to quote) you stated you would give Snow credit for the success we have. Now, you are further defining what you personally think credit should be and how much you'll give (which based on your previous statement is none). So which is it...are you giving him some credit or zero at all. If you are giving him any credit I no longer need to discuss it with you because I'll be satisfied. If you are giving him zero credit, I don't think you are being logical and not sure how you could even argue otherwise, unless you start pigeonholing how you decide to give credit.

Well, I naturally see where you're coming from.

In conclusion (for my part), I know that Snow acquired (mostly drafted) players who have been at the core of our most recent success. I contend he should have done a hell of a lot better with all those top 5 picks he had, but sure, ultimately the core of the success consists of players he brought in.

Giving him even partial credit FOR the success itself, which first took place after his dismissal, I cannot really do. You see, our success set in immediately after he was dismissed. It continued 3 straight seasons, two of which saw us in the conference finals. This came immediately after moving on from Snow.

What that says is that Snow himself WAS the blockade to our success. He is the guy who prevented it. Only first through his removal could all these guys come to show their true colors - and be successful.

That's where I'm coming from here.

And again, absolutely no new GM comes in and just clears out the team in its entirety. Every new GM comes in and begins by working primarily with what's there, hoping to tickle more out of certain guys than his predecessor.

And good lord almighty, that's something that Lou did in spades.

PS. For the bold, you do that often and I recognize it. That's why you are one of the posters I like to read comments from, and why I'm so surprised you aren't doing it here

That's very kind of you. We've naturally had a ton of good chats over the years and posters such as yourself are why I always hang around and feel at home here.

Two seconds for Toews at the time was for sure maximum return. In fact, if Toews had played on the Isles, he'd still be worth two seconds. Like Chap says, no way he puts up those numbers here.

Love the guy, but this is simply how it is. Any other way of looking at it is being unrealistic and chosing the vaccuum over the comprehensive take.

 

[JJ18Sniper]

Some rumblings about Beavillier and Montreal which has been happening since he was basically drafted.

Source: Canadiens Inquired About Beauvillier, Return the Issue

Back in early August, NYI Hockey Now reported, after speaking with a few league sources, that the New York Islanders were shopping forward Anthony Beauvillier. The 25-year-old was now on the market as the Islanders try to shes cap space. Beauvillier is under contract for another two seasons with...

nyihockeynow.com

They are up against the cap and the purpose of trading Beau is to not take on new cap... so if there is any substance here Montreal needs to make a separate deal to unload someone like Dvorak.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

I'm curious - I don't have a dog in this Toews fight.

I personally think that a mid-round 2022 2nd + a 2023 second would be worth as much or more than that 2022 mid-round 1st. Imo once Savoie went off the board, the blue chippers were really gone.

Not to mention the most obvious of obvious things, which we've pounded on here:
Lou could not keep all of Barzal, Pulock, and Toews and we could only protect three Dmen anyhow in the expansion draft. Unless he moved somebody, we were f$%&ed 4 ways to China on our blueline.

An executive decision had to be made and he not only made the most logical market decision, he still managed to get two 2nd rounders for a guy he wasn't going to be able to pay or keep anyhow.

Naturally, the 13th overall for Romanov (only 22) and what became George (I'd say our 3rd best D prospect after Salo and Oledius) in a time where we had no such cap concerns and more of a need to up the ante for another push at Cup competition is simply vastly different to the rock and a hard place this team was in when Toews was up for a new contract.

People cannot look at these things in a vacuum and expect to be taken seriously.

 

[IslandersFan17]

Not to mention the most obvious of obvious things, which we've pounded on here:
Lou could not keep all of Barzal, Pulock, and Toews and we could only protect three Dmen anyhow in the expansion draft. Unless he moved somebody, we were f$%&ed 4 ways to China on our blueline.

An executive decision had to be made and he not only made the most logical market decision, he still managed to get two 2nd rounders for a guy he wasn't going to be able to pay or keep anyhow.

Naturally, the 13th overall for Romanov (only 22) and what became George (I'd say our 3rd best D prospect after Salo and Oledius) in a time where we had no such cap concerns and more of a need to up the ante for another push at Cup competition is simply vastly different to the rock and a hard place this team was in when Toews was up for a new contract.

People cannot look at these things in a vacuum and expect to be taken seriously.

Or you make a deal with Seattle to take someone else and offer a pick or prospect to do so, in turn you protect everyone you want.

Acting like the expansion draft is a reason to trade off a potential core piece, shouldn’t expect to be taken seriously

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Or you make a deal with Seattle to take someone else and offer a pick or prospect to do so, in turn you protect everyone you want.

Acting like the expansion draft is a reason to trade off a potential core piece, shouldn’t expect to be taken seriously

These were Toews' stats in our organization when he was moved:

No need to sit here talking about him like he was already one of our most important pieces or was ever gonna be for us what he's been able to become for the most high octane team in hockey.

And in all this talk, almost no-one has mentioned how the offense he was "gonna offer us" was also expected from Dobson, with a fairly quick timeline for arrival.

Et voilà, now we're getting 50 points out of the kid. As a 21/22-year-old.

Ipso facto, Toews' role was already replaceable from within.

Every way you look at this, Lou was NOT a failure for moving Toews. It was calculated and despite extreme factors forcing his hand, he got two 2nds out of this move. A master stroke.

 

[PWJunior]

These were Toews stats in our organization when he was moved:
View attachment 577509

No need to sit here talking about him like he was already one of our most important pieces or was ever gonna be for us what he's been able to become for the most high octane team in hockey.

And in all this talk, almost no-one has mentioned how the offense he was "gonna offer us" was also expected from Dobson, with a fairly quick timeline for arrival.

Et voilà, now we're getting 50 points out of the kid. As a 21/22-year-old.

Ipso facto, Toews role was already replaceable from within.

Every way you look at this, Lou was NOT a failure for moving Toews. It was calculated and despite extreme factors forcing his hand, he got two 2nds out of this move. A master stroke.

Raty looks like a very nice player, a steal with one of those 2nd's. We will see how this Odelius pans out, but he is in that Toews/Leddy mold of plus skating PMD's and was rated higher than selected.

I didn't like losing Toews, but the crying and moaning with major spins from the piss drinkers is so disingenuous. Not surprised, but it's why I rather play games than come here and read so much bullshit.

 

[periferal]

The Hickey deal was Lou panicking in the wake of the Tavares debacle. Anyone who watched the Islanders play that season (and before) knew well that Hickey wasn't good enough and leaving him to go to UFA was the right choice, but Lou came in after the season, and clearly mistook him for a proper NHL player. It was a terrible deal,.

Komarov served a purpose but four years??? Madness. 1-2 years is what a player like him should get. It's amazing how many bad deals hockey GMs can sign and get away with it.

Yeah - I'd say this post is on point.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

The Hickey deal was Lou panicking in the wake of the Tavares debacle. Anyone who watched the Islanders play that season (and before) knew well that Hickey wasn't good enough and leaving him to go to UFA was the right choice, but Lou came in after the season, and clearly mistook him for a proper NHL player. It was a terrible deal,.

Not to mention that not only Tavares simply walked, but Calvin de Haan did as well.

And again, ummm, Hickey had been a bit of an identification figure in the club for several years. And when he got that contract, he was not only coming off 22 points in what, 60 games, but was also a +20 for a team that had just given up more goals against than the first year San Jose Sharks.

I mean, how do even acheive a +/- like that on a team that let in 7634 goals against???

So 2.5 MM per was ABSOLUTELY market value from a statistical standpoint. That shouldn't be questioned.

4 years??? Well, like you say, we all saw that as a poor investement. Most of us didn't care for Hickey's game.

I always thought it was a forgivable offense in light of the bloodletting going on. That Hickey would then completely fall off the map in Trotz' system was very unfortunate for us. Then he got his head crushed in in the AHL and became a complete, long-term, non-factor. Not even tradeable.

Very sad course of events, but even if say four years of Dman #6/7 use for a guy getting into 50 games and putting up 2-10-12 numbers would have been poor value for a 4-year, 2.5 MM contract, it still would have been something. And perhaps even something marketable.

Instead, he completely fell off the planet.

Komarov served a purpose but four years??? Madness. 1-2 years is what a player like him should get. It's amazing how many bad deals hockey GMs can sign and get away with it.

He was an unexpectedly important player in his first season here. He really helped in the locker room. And he added a "thorn in your side" aspect. Filppula as well, for that matter, in that he became an ace in the hole on several occasions.

Even Komarov's second season was "alright". Not 3-million worth. No. But alright. He brought identity.

By the 3rd season, it was clear that he was becoming a deadweight.

The 4th year of his contract simply watched him walk away and head to Russia. No buyout. No cap hit. Just a dissolved contract and whoosh, he was gone.

Maybe, just maybe, this is what Lou expected of Komarov right from the beginning? Maybe he never saw the contract as a problem because all parties involved knew that when he was no longer a factor, they could use this way out?

As Butchie likes to say, no harm, no foul.

 

[IslandersFan17]

These were Toews stats in our organization when he was moved:
View attachment 577509

No need to sit here talking about him like he was already one of our most important pieces or was ever gonna be for us what he's been able to become for the most high octane team in hockey.

And in all this talk, almost no-one has mentioned how the offense he was "gonna offer us" was also expected from Dobson, with a fairly quick timeline for arrival.

Et voilà, now we're getting 50 points out of the kid. As a 21/22-year-old.

Ipso facto, Toews role was already replaceable from within.

Every way you look at this, Lou was NOT a failure for moving Toews. It was calculated and despite extreme factors forcing his hand, he got two 2nds out of this move. A master stroke.

Ah box score scouting. How nuanced.

 

[leeroggy]

Some rumblings about Beavillier and Montreal which has been happening since he was basically drafted.

Source: Canadiens Inquired About Beauvillier, Return the Issue

Back in early August, NYI Hockey Now reported, after speaking with a few league sources, that the New York Islanders were shopping forward Anthony Beauvillier. The 25-year-old was now on the market as the Islanders try to shes cap space. Beauvillier is under contract for another two seasons with...

nyihockeynow.com

They are up against the cap and the purpose of trading Beau is to not take on new cap... so if there is any substance here Montreal needs to make a separate deal to unload someone like Dvorak.

Mysak and the Panthers 2023 1st from Montreal?

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

The Komarov and Hickey deals were just plain bad....period. The length of them even more so, although I fail to see in any world really where Leo was worth 3 million or Thomas was close to that.

These were 1-2 year players for 2 million tops.

Getting two second round picks for Toews was actually a good return, but having to trade him at all was unfortunate and probably could have been avoided had these contracts not been handed out...

Now I am terrified at the moves Lou is going to have to make to fit our 3 RFA;s and Kadri in with our cap space. He isn't trading Varlamov, and I would argue rightfully so at this late in the process. The time to have considered trading him was a month ago when there were backups available and the market was filled with teams needing a netminder and overpaying for some much less experiences or nearly as good as Semyon.

So that means one or both of Josh Bailey and Anthony Beauvillier are likely getting moved in the coming days and that is what is concerning. Neither of these players should be attached with assets in order to move them.

AB, despite all of his warts; just turned 25 over the summer and still has plenty of upside and is only making 4.1 million over the next two seasons. He has been a disappointment but has still been a 20-20-40 performer and I could easily see him get to a consistent 25 goal performer on a second line with his speed somewhere.

Josh is about as close to a true 50-point performer as you will find in the NHL. In his last six seasons he has a per 82 of 56, 77, 56, 52, 53 and 49. His 2017-18 season was an outlier of course playing almost exclusively with an in his prime traitor, but it is a 53 per 82 average in the other 5 campaigns. Yes, he is still a 5 million cap hit for two more seasons, but only 7 million of it is actually cash owed to him.

NEITHER should one have to include meaningful assets in a deal, as there have been far lesser players signed/traded already this offseason with less cap/money owed. Unfortunately this late in the offseason, caps are tight and that makes it harder for team's to fit them in....meaning now we likely will have to make a bad trade...

To add to that we are likely making this/these bad trade(s) just so we can overpay for another 32-year old non-difference maker and give him more years than he should get as well, learning absolutely ZERO from the mistake in lengths of the Komarov and Hickey deals....

 

[PK Cronin]

Ah box score scouting. How nuanced.

That's all you've been doing. Insufferable.

You don't want to actually have a discussion, you want everyone to say how terrible Lamoriello is for an acceptable trade.

 

[Quickdraw2828]

If we trade Beau because we couldn't give away Bailey I'll be pissed.

Can we give Bailey the Moulson treatment?

 

[NC 1972]

If we trade Beau because we couldn't give away Bailey I'll be pissed.

Can we give Bailey the Moulson treatment?

That would be a punch in the gut, unless as mentioned earlier its part of a bigger trade that brings back something special. We would be losing some speed and say what you will about Beau but he's a very effective forechecker gets in on the puck quickly.

 

[WangMustGo]

If we trade Beau because we couldn't give away Bailey I'll be pissed.

Can we give Bailey the Moulson treatment?

I would rather lose Bailey, but outside of his skating is Beauvillier aby better? I would be fine with moving both of them. Beauvillier has not improved at all since his rookie season. Hes a streaky 15-20 goal scorer with average tools outside of his skating.