Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[The Real JT]

How are we defining overpaid? Are we saying these are the prices they would fetch in an open market? Or are we saying that they don't provide the value based on their cap hit?

Because if it's the former, you're probably right. They get the same AAV or close to it in UFA. Bang for the buck? No. All of Pageau, Palmieri, and Bailey are all about 1-2 million overpaid.

The Athletic literally just did a piece with the Isles 25th in contract efficiency. It used Dom's analytical model. We received no As for any of our contracts (Goalies were not graded, but Sorokin would likely be an A. The only players that ranked above average were Parise, Barzal, Nelson, Pelech, Pulock, Mayfield. The C range included Martin, Bailey, Pageau, Johnston, Cizikas, Lee.

The best line of the article is that the Islanders are paying way too much to be average. That's exactly right. Any player making 5+ needs to move the needle. Of the 3 I listed, Palmieri is probably the best, and closes to his value. JGP and Bailey are anchors.

I’ll keep this short.

Pelech’s contact is great for the team.

This numbskull would rather blindly look at stats and pay Nurse $3.5M/yr more than Pelech. Even up, I’d take Pelech in a heartbeat..

 

[mm11]

I have a feeling that Romanov's nasty edge is going to rub off on Mayfield and we will see Mayfield become more aggressive as the year goes on. Mayfield used to play with a little more physicality than he did this past year. I think he ups his physical game this year.

Also, if we do sign Kadri and he plays with Wally, I think Wally feeds off of him and starts to throw the body a little more as well.

Also feel barzal will feed off kadri's nastiness. I like seeing an angry determined #13.

 

[Mike C]

Also feel barzal will feed off kadri's nastiness. I like seeing an angry determined #13.

i'm hoping on the offensive end for sure

i have watched him closely and i think there are times on D or battling for pucks he gets downright chippy/borderline dirty(mayfieldesque!)


i am pleased with that attitude. i know he is a bit smaller than some and i also know opponents take shots at his hands and legs. Butch pointed this out a couple of times last season, saying matt needs to know and adjust to having that target on his back

hopefully kadri will teach him some "tricks of the trade" if you will!

 

[isles55]

I’ll keep this short.

Pelech’s contact is great for the team.

This numbskull would rather blindly look at stats and pay Nurse $3.5M/yr more than Pelech. Even up, I’d take Pelech in a heartbeat..

He ranked Nurse as having the 5th worst contract in the league so I don’t think that’s the case.

 

[mm11]

i'm hoping on the offensive end for sure

i have watched him closely and i think there are times on D or battling for pucks he gets downright chippy/borderline dirty(mayfieldesque!)


i am pleased with that attitude. i know he is a bit smaller than some and i also know opponents take shots at his hands and legs. Butch pointed this out a couple of times last season, saying matt needs to know and adjust to having that target on his back

hopefully kadri will teach him some "tricks of the trade" if you will!

All part of the learning process to be a superstar at the NHL level. I should know, I dominated 4th grade gym ball hockey. Young Matt is just getting to his prime. Look out NHL!

 

[CupHolders]

I agree with this. More specifically, I don't have a problem overall with either Beau or Bailey, but I think having both of them is redundant and hurts the team (especially with adding Parise last season). Swapping out Bailey (ideally) or Beau for Kadri would help the team.

Closest thing to an anchor on this current Isles team is Bailey... Suddenly the chains commercial makes a whole lot of sense.

But as you and others already mentioned, he is not un-useful. He along with most of the top six, just doesn't provide elite level play at a great to good cost.

 

[Mike C]

All part of the learning process to be a superstar at the NHL level. I should know, I dominated 4th grade gym ball hockey. Young Matt is just getting to his prime. Look out NHL!

Salary drive year too double M, I'm figuring on a top shelf season

 

[The Real JT]

I’ll keep this short.

Pelech’s contact is great for the team.

This numbskull would rather blindly look at stats and pay Nurse $3.5M/yr more than Pelech. Even up, I’d take Pelech in a heartbeat..

He ranked Nurse as having the 5th worst contract in the league so I don’t think that’s the case.

Don’t ruin my narrative.

Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

[Mike C]

Closest thing to an anchor on this current Isles team is Bailey... Suddenly the chains commercial makes a whole lot of sense.

But as you and already mentioned, he is not unuseful. He along with most of the top six, just doesn't provide elite level play at a great to good cost.

To me, he's the type of guy you don't mind if he's here but wouldn't miss him if he weren't

 

[CupHolders]

How are we defining overpaid? Are we saying these are the prices they would fetch in an open market? Or are we saying that they don't provide the value based on their cap hit?

Because if it's the former, you're probably right. They get the same AAV or close to it in UFA. Bang for the buck? No. All of Pageau, Palmieri, and Bailey are all about 1-2 million overpaid.

The Athletic literally just did a piece with the Isles 25th in contract efficiency. It used Dom's analytical model. We received no As for any of our contracts (Goalies were not graded, but Sorokin would likely be an A. The only players that ranked above average were Parise, Barzal, Nelson, Pelech, Pulock, Mayfield. The C range included Martin, Bailey, Pageau, Johnston, Cizikas, Lee.

The best line of the article is that the Islanders are paying way too much to be average. That's exactly right. Any player making 5+ needs to move the needle. Of the 3 I listed, Palmieri is probably the best, and closes to his value. JGP and Bailey are anchors.

Just wanted to take this opportunity to follow up on our last exchange form the "Prospects" thread. Since I think it's better served here anyway. You said...

I don't agree, but I do respect your opinion. It depends on how you evaluate players. I believe there is a sweet spot between public model analytics and the eye test. Most of the time, I feel they coincide. I don't believe that this is the case of fans getting bored by players coming back. The fourth line is no longer good. Not by metrics. Not by the eye test. Clutterbuck is a decent defensive forward. Cizikas has struggled offensively, and good be better defensively. Martin is just not an NHL player anymore. Heinen, Kubel, and Lazar are all excellent forecheckers with defensive ability.

Furthermore, I do not view as Czarnik and Andreoff as interchangeable. Czarnik is an NHL player. He's at worse an average 4th liner. Our current 4th line is at its best when they wreak havoc all over the ice. As they age, they just cannot do so anymore. It is not sustainable over 82 games and then the playoffs. Not at their age. Maybe not at any age. Problem with doubling and then tripling down on ineffective lines, is that it has a trickle down effect on the other lines. A once strong 4 line team has become 3 line team without any true game breakers (Barzal has that potential, but isn't a goal scorer). It's hard to play the way the Isles do without getting production from all 4 lines. Furthermore, defensively, the fourth line doesn't even provide the same defensive value as it once did. Which is also a huge issue because coaches generally ignore the data available to them and assume guys like Martin, Clutterbuck, and Cizikas are still able to provide defensive value they once did.

Lou generally ignores age curves as witnessed by the contracts he's handed out. Perhaps the guys mentioned are just too import in the locker room. I don't know. On the ice, they are a complete disaster.

To clarify. I think the fourth line has diminished in it's ability. I think it needs to be replaced... but is still NHL worthy and better than most give credit for. I still think that fans here judge their value based on their last contracts, not the current deals where they all have taken a pay cut around a million or more each.

Moreover, Martin is the only questionable player in terms of NHL quality. All reports were that he played most of the year injured. Cizikas and Clutterbuck are still quality penalty killers on one of the NHL better PK units. Are their deals exceptional value? No. And yes, the fourth line needs to be replaced, but I disagree with the notions that crop up here that they should've been replaced years ago. Up until this past year, they were a positive impact on two long playoff runs.

 

[CupHolders]

Don’t ruin my narrative.

Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Nope. We doubled down and dropped TWO atom bombs on the New Zealanders!

PS... yes I get that this is from Animal House.

 

[CupHolders]

To me, he's the type of guy you don't mind if he's here but wouldn't miss him if he weren't

That of course, but also if there was at least one more substantial offensive weapon then he would slot in more correctly.

As it stands, Palmeri, Beauvillier, Bailey, Eberle etc. are all more or less on the same level. Some provide more in certain aspects, but their cumulative contribution doesn't move the needle much. Swap out any one player for someone with Tarasenko like production and the rest of the lineup works better.

I'm not sure if Kadri is the player to rely on. He is certainly better than what's here.

 

[benedictTavares]

That of course, but also if there was at least one more substantial offensive weapon then he would slot in more correctly.

As it stands, Palmeri, Beauvillier, Bailey, Eberle etc. are all more or less on the same level. Some provide more in certain aspects, but their cumulative contribution doesn't move the needle much. Swap out any one player for someone with Tarasenko like production and the rest of the lineup works better.

I'm not sure if Kadri is the player to rely on. He is certainly better than what's here.

The last time we had someone like Tarasenko on the wing was Palffy.

 

[periferal]

The last time we had someone like Tarasenko on the wing was Palffy.

I say this all the time. Unbelievable the Isles have not had a 1st line wing in 20+ years.

 

[PK Cronin]

I say this all the time. Unbelievable the Isles have not had a 1st line wing in 20+ years.

We're just going to forget about Vanek like that?!

 

[cjdv16]

We're just going to forget about Vanek like that?!

Yup. Forget that over hyped garbage can.

 

[benedictTavares]

We're just going to forget about Vanek like that?!

I know you were being sarcastic but while he was almost a PPG player for us it was pretty much the last productive season he had. I am glad we did not sign him.

 

[The Real JT]

Looking at the remaining UFAs, I just smiled thinking of one of the unsigned players left. Some of us are agonizing over the implications of signing a soon to be 32 year old to a sizable contract.

At least no one’s linked us to Phil Kessel. This guy looks likes he’s ready to apply as a GM at his local Tim Horton’s. Scratch that. Let’s say a regular customer, not the GM.

 

[crasherino]

Closest thing to an anchor on this current Isles team is Bailey... Suddenly the chains commercial makes a whole lot of sense.

But as you and already mentioned, he is not unuseful. He along with most of the top six, just doesn't provide elite level play at a great to good cost.

I don't think we have one true anchor. Our biggest problem is that we have a bunch of smaller anchors. Taken in a vacuum, they're each not terrible. But when we put 5-6 of these contracts together, its not great to have 6-7 30+ yr old guys on these types of multi year deals (Lee, Bailey, JGP, Casey, Cal, Marts, Palmieri). You can justify each individually, but taken as a whole, that's a lot of money and a lot of years.

I don't hate adding Kadri to this mix - he'll definitely make the current team better (and I'm not worried about bringing in another Center - they can figure that out). But he's not making this team any younger or lowering the cap over the next 4 years. That is definitely an issue. Net/net.....I go for the infusion of talent but the team needs to offload some contracts and bodies.

 

[periferal]

We're just going to forget about Vanek like that?!

gosh...How could I forget 47 games? Shame on me.

 

[CupHolders]

We're just going to forget about Vanek like that?!

Vanek was a legitimate winger... just never felt like he was truly an Islander. Out of curiosity, were you old enough to watch Palffy? Not a trick or gotcha question. Also not debating who was the better overall player Palffy or Vanek. But recalling Palffy has reminded me of how underrated he truly was.

Lol. This is his stat line as a 40 year old NHL retire...

Season

Team.

Lge

GP

G

A

PTS

PIM

+/-

2012-13

Skalica HK 36

Slovak

39

26

47

73

103

40

 

[CupHolders]

gosh...How could I forget 47 games? Shame on me.

That's it... Go sit in the corner and wear the Islander equivalent of the dunce cap...

And people complain about the fisherman and/or the current minimal logo. Sheesh!

 

[benedictTavares]

Vanek was a legitimate winger... just never felt like he was truly an Islander. Out of curiosity, were you old enough to watch Palffy? Not a trick or gotcha question. Also not debating who was the better overall player Palffy or Vanek. But recalling Palffy has reminded me of how underrated he truly was.

Lol. This is his stat line as a 40 year old NHL retire...

Season

Team.

Lge

GP

G

A

PTS

PIM

+/-

2012-13

Skalica HK 36

Slovak

39

26

47

73

103

40

I was alive and he was the last player(winger) I remember that could drive the play and was elite. If we had kept Bertuzzi he probably could have been that for us.

 

[The Real JT]

I don't think we have one true anchor. Our biggest problem is that we have a bunch of smaller anchors. Taken in a vacuum, they're each not terrible. But when we put 5-6 of these contracts together, its not great to have 6-7 30+ yr old guys on these types of multi year deals (Lee, Bailey, JGP, Casey, Cal, Marts, Palmieri). You can justify each individually, but taken as a whole, that's a lot of money and a lot of years.

I don't hate adding Kadri to this mix - he'll definitely make the current team better (and I'm not worried about bringing in another Center - they can figure that out). But he's not making this team any younger or lowering the cap over the next 4 years. That is definitely an issue. Net/net.....I go for the infusion of talent but the team needs to offload some contracts and bodies.

Well done sir.

We regretted being forced to trade Toews in a fire sale yet we’re looking at something similar but hopefully less toxic in the next few weeks.

In a couple of years I suspect we may see deja vu all over again.

Hard to recover from that long term when you consistently trade away first round picks and first tier UFAs don’t answer your calls.

 

[leeroggy]

All part of the learning process to be a superstar at the NHL level. I should know, I dominated 4th grade gym ball hockey. Young Matt is just getting to his prime. Look out NHL!

You had gym ball? We had plastic sticks and SPONGE rubber pucks, they were awesome!