Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[Fantom]

3 around 4.5 is what I think also. Agent won’t want long term in order to set up bigger payday when Dobson is even more established and the cap starts going up again,

to be honest that number sounds fair on both sides. it gives him some money now and if he plays great he can get more later. its risk reward thing for the player

 

[doublechili]

This is getting like the old Groucho show . . . say the magic word and make $500

You bet your life.

[agreeing with your post, and the name of Groucho's show ]

 

[Big L]

i hope not 8x6 is scary

8 years at $6m per?

 

[leeroggy]

8 years at $6m per?

Eight dollars for 6 weeks and a bonus of $8 million for 6 goals in those weeks

 

[duster19]

If Kadri to Isles happens, and leaving aside salary, term, etc., there are questions about where he would fit in. There have been issues finding guys that fit with Barzal. Ideally he'd have two wingers with some size and/or grit. And he needs someone offensively creative enough to ying with his yang. I feel like Kadri would be a great fit with Barzal. He is both a shooter and a playmaker, he provides sandpaper, a defensive conscience, and as a natural C he'd be better equipped to move around the ice and interact with Barzal (more so than an up and down kind of guy, cough, Leo, cough). Wahlstrom could be on the other wing, providing more size and a big shot.


Maybe a bridge at about $4M per year? Unless Lou and he can agree on something like 8 x $6M....

Barzal to the wing was a failure when they tried it previously. Barzals greatest asset is his transition play. It doesn’t work the same from wing. He is also brutal on the boards. Not saying they won’t try it…just that I’m not convinced that it will work. I’ve played with the lineup on cap friendly and I really don’t know how he will be used.

 

[doublechili]

Barzal to the wing was a failure when they tried it previously. Barzals greatest asset is his transition play. It doesn’t work the same from wing. He is also brutal on the boards. Not saying they won’t try it…just that I’m not convinced that it will work. I’ve played with the lineup on cap friendly and I really don’t know how he will be used.

I may have worded it confusingly, but I meant Barzal at C and Kadri at LW:

Kadri - Barzal - Wahlstrom

Kadri being a natural C might make him a better fit for Barzal's dipsy-doodling since Kadri is used to using more of the ice.

8 years at $6m per?

That's what I meant. I expect a bridge deal for Dobson, but maybe Lou throws out an 8 year deal. Bridge would be better for the team though cap-wise for the next stretch of time.

 

[Quickdraw2828]

8 years at $6m per?

See, the dollar sign makes it clear. This mother ****** gets it.

 

[Lights911]

The money per year always comes before the term.

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

he was refering to kadri no ?

Possibly, I must have read it wrong. Apologies

 

[doublechili]

Possibly, I must have read it wrong. Apologies

No, you had it right. I meant the 8 x $6M re: Dobson, not Kadri.

 

[beach]

The money per year always comes before the term.

No it doesn't. It's almost always #Yrs x Salary

 

[JPIsles18]

None of the guys you listed are overpaid.

How are we defining overpaid? Are we saying these are the prices they would fetch in an open market? Or are we saying that they don't provide the value based on their cap hit?

Because if it's the former, you're probably right. They get the same AAV or close to it in UFA. Bang for the buck? No. All of Pageau, Palmieri, and Bailey are all about 1-2 million overpaid.

The Athletic literally just did a piece with the Isles 25th in contract efficiency. It used Dom's analytical model. We received no As for any of our contracts (Goalies were not graded, but Sorokin would likely be an A. The only players that ranked above average were Parise, Barzal, Nelson, Pelech, Pulock, Mayfield. The C range included Martin, Bailey, Pageau, Johnston, Cizikas, Lee.

The best line of the article is that the Islanders are paying way too much to be average. That's exactly right. Any player making 5+ needs to move the needle. Of the 3 I listed, Palmieri is probably the best, and closes to his value. JGP and Bailey are anchors.

 

[crashthenet]

I may have worded it confusingly, but I meant Barzal at C and Kadri at LW:

Kadri - Barzal - Wahlstrom

Kadri being a natural C might make him a better fit for Barzal's dipsy-doodling since Kadri is used to using more of the ice.


That's what I meant. I expect a bridge deal for Dobson, but maybe Lou throws out an 8 year deal. Bridge would be better for the team though cap-wise for the next stretch of time.

Kadri takes the draws. It's an important part of the fit for him.

 

[doublechili]

Kadri takes the draws. It's an important part of the fit for him.

That's an option - no reason he couldn't. And they'd have a RH and LH available, which is always nice.

 

[leeroggy]

I wonder if Calgary would be okay with a Bailey-Valimaki swap?

He seems to be the odd man out there and would be a nice depth option on the LHD while we net about $3,500,000 in cap. Calgary still looks like it wants to compete this year.

 

[JKP]

How are we defining overpaid? Are we saying these are the prices they would fetch in an open market? Or are we saying that they don't provide the value based on their cap hit?

Because if it's the former, you're probably right. They get the same AAV or close to it in UFA. Bang for the buck? No. All of Pageau, Palmieri, and Bailey are all about 1-2 million overpaid.

The Athletic literally just did a piece with the Isles 25th in contract efficiency. It used Dom's analytical model. We received no As for any of our contracts (Goalies were not graded, but Sorokin would likely be an A. The only players that ranked above average were Parise, Barzal, Nelson, Pelech, Pulock, Mayfield. The C range included Martin, Bailey, Pageau, Johnston, Cizikas, Lee.

The best line of the article is that the Islanders are paying way too much to be average. That's exactly right. Any player making 5+ needs to move the needle. Of the 3 I listed, Palmieri is probably the best, and closes to his value. JGP and Bailey are anchors.

Different people believe things have different value, which is why pricing is such an art in the market. In the case of the 3 players you mentioned, you could make a case for Pageau and Bailey because they market didn't decide their value, one team did. In the case of Palms, he hit the open market, so presumably he is being paid exactly what the market thinks he's worth. You may think he's over paid, others may not.

As for "contract efficiency", Dom belongs with Captain Spreadsheet in Toronto. Stats have a place as one of many inputs to decision making (and value) – not as the input to decisions. Clearly stats as the primary decision-making driver does NOT work, or TML would be celebrating their 3rd or 4th cup instead of half a decade of playoff futility .

 

[Big L]

As for "contract efficiency", Dom belongs with Captain Spreadsheet in Toronto.

This 1000%

 

[Rehabguy]

I like Kadri for the short term. Like Romanov he is exactly the shot in the arm this team needs to take it to the next level. He plays on the edge of being dirty and there's nothing wrong with that. Even the glory days Isles had that element with several players. This team though it is tough and hard hitting doesn't have that cut-throat mentality it takes to win the Cup. Lou sees this. They are too squeaky clean. They respect their opponents too much. Romanov and Kadri could change that. Problem is, his contract might turn out to be an albatross around Lou's neck in the later years- especially since some players don't play as hungry once they have already won the cup. It always seems like the Islanders have a penchant for signing all star players when they are past their prime and that could be because the Isles play second fiddle to the spotlight the Rangers attract. Former all star players kind of see the Islanders as a retirement plan. I don't know if the Isles have the Cap space to improve later if the team were not to compete for the cup in the next 3 years. Also, it would be mismanagement by Lou if he were to trade away Pageau given the picks we gave up for him and Romanov. This team still needs to have a future.

 

[Mike C]

I like Kadri for the short term. Like Romanov he is exactly the shot in the arm this team needs to take it to the next level. He plays on the edge of being dirty and there's nothing wrong with that. Even the glory days Isles had that element with several players. This team though it is tough and hard hitting doesn't have that cut-throat mentality it takes to win the Cup. Lou sees this. They are too squeaky clean. They respect their opponents too much. Romanov and Kadri could change that. Problem is, his contract might turn out to be an albatross around Lou's neck in the later years- especially since some players don't play as hungry once they have already won the cup. It always seems like the Islanders have a penchant for signing all star players when they are past their prime and that could be because the Isles play second fiddle to the spotlight the Rangers attract. Former all star players kind of see the Islanders as a retirement plan. I don't know if the Isles have the Cap space to improve later if the team were not to compete for the cup in the next 3 years. Also, it would be mismanagement by Lou if he were to trade away Pageau given the picks we gave up for him and Romanov. This team still needs to have a future.

I feel the team lost some of that toughness and hard hitting element last season. In the games where Martin sets that tone early, they seem to feed off that, didn't happen enough last year. Also too many bad penalties early in games (still love ya big Z!) put us behind 8 ball way too often

Agree 1000% Kadri and Romanov will bring that nasty edge

I'm personally willing to sacrifice future for now. I think in Lou's mind ,the future IS now and I'm perfectly ok with that

I wouldn't trade Pageau simply because he's a good player. He does all that is asked of him. Works hard, hustles all the time, sacrifices his body. I'd miss him if he were gone.

 

[4Cups Want More]

I have a feeling that Romanov's nasty edge is going to rub off on Mayfield and we will see Mayfield become more aggressive as the year goes on. Mayfield used to play with a little more physicality than he did this past year. I think he ups his physical game this year.

Also, if we do sign Kadri and he plays with Wally, I think Wally feeds off of him and starts to throw the body a little more as well.

 

[Mike C]

I have a feeling that Romanov's nasty edge is going to rub off on Mayfield and we will see Mayfield become more aggressive as the year goes on. Mayfield used to play with a little more physicality than he did this past year. I think he ups his physical game this year.

Also, if we do sign Kadri and he plays with Wally, I think Wally feeds off of him and starts to throw the body a little more as well.

i totally agree on mayfield, that game vs st. louis where he was running guys all over the place is what i'd love to see in him all the time


gotta say, i was really impressed with how wally hit people last last 25-30 games. he finished checks, dropped the gloves occasionally and seemed to enjoy the physical play. when other guys were blasted for 'mailing it in', i thought wally played hard. the results might not have been what is desired but i liked his effort.

 

[PK Cronin]

How are we defining overpaid? Are we saying these are the prices they would fetch in an open market? Or are we saying that they don't provide the value based on their cap hit?

Because if it's the former, you're probably right. They get the same AAV or close to it in UFA. Bang for the buck? No. All of Pageau, Palmieri, and Bailey are all about 1-2 million overpaid.

The Athletic literally just did a piece with the Isles 25th in contract efficiency. It used Dom's analytical model. We received no As for any of our contracts (Goalies were not graded, but Sorokin would likely be an A. The only players that ranked above average were Parise, Barzal, Nelson, Pelech, Pulock, Mayfield. The C range included Martin, Bailey, Pageau, Johnston, Cizikas, Lee.

The best line of the article is that the Islanders are paying way too much to be average. That's exactly right. Any player making 5+ needs to move the needle. Of the 3 I listed, Palmieri is probably the best, and closes to his value. JGP and Bailey are anchors.

Overpaid is a player getting paid more than they'd earn on the open market. There is no other definition. Talking about bang for your buck is actually players who are getting paid less than their output. They can't be both at their value and overpaid. None of those players are "bang for your buck" types but they also aren't overpaid.

Dom is a f***ing dope and his models are always shit. He makes the f***ing models and adjusts them every year, meaning there is no baseline for the model and it's absolutely meaningless since he's the only one determining what has value. It'd behoove you to simply ignore anything that guy is peddling.

The Islanders are paying the market rate for too many middle sixers, and aren't getting enough bang for your buck contracts. That doesn't make anyone an anchor or overpaid.

 

[Big L]

Dom is a f***ing dope and his models are always shit. He makes the f***ing models and adjusts them every year, meaning there is no baseline for the model and it's absolutely meaningless since he's the only one determining what has value. It'd behoove you to simply ignore anything that guy is peddling.

This 1000%

What is the point of his model anyway? To predict future performance, right?

 

[PK Cronin]

This 1000%

What is the point of his model anyway? To predict future performance, right?

Seems like it's to always rank the Maple Leafs really high or make excuses for why they didn't succeed.

 

[doublechili]

The Islanders are paying the market rate for too many middle sixers, and aren't getting enough bang for your buck contracts. That doesn't make anyone an anchor or overpaid.

I agree with this. More specifically, I don't have a problem overall with either Beau or Bailey, but I think having both of them is redundant and hurts the team (especially with adding Parise last season). Swapping out Bailey (ideally) or Beau for Kadri would help the team.