Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[IslesNorway]

Well done sir.

We regretted being forced to trade Toews in a fire sale yet we’re looking at something similar but hopefully less toxic in the next few weeks.

In a couple of years I suspect we may see deja vu all over again.

Hard to recover from that long term when you consistently trade away first round picks and first tier UFAs don’t answer your calls.

And even more so when we trade away Toews to find space to sign the likes of Palmieri and Cizikas to long terms deals that only benefits the player.

If Kadri is signed, then that vicious circle will just keep on rolling.

 

[leeroggy]

Don’t ruin my narrative.

Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Yes, but it was a different war . . . it was the War With The Omegas . . . and Kenny was dominant

Nope. We doubled down and dropped TWO atom bombs on the New Zealanders!

PS... yes I get that this is from Animal House.

Cosmic Kiwi fruit salad

 

[The Real JT]

And even more so when we trade away Toews to find space to sign the likes of Palmieri and Cizikas to long terms deals that only benefits the player.

If Kadri is signed, then that vicious circle will just keep on rolling.

If and when that happens I’ll put on a happy face knowing the Isles are a better team for the upcoming season.

After that, there’s good reason to be concerned. Better hope Dobson and Sorokin become All Stars, Barzal blossoms under a new coach and Raty is as good as some here think he might be.

 

[IslesNorway]

I don't think we have one true anchor. Our biggest problem is that we have a bunch of smaller anchors. Taken in a vacuum, they're each not terrible. But when we put 5-6 of these contracts together, its not great to have 6-7 30+ yr old guys on these types of multi year deals (Lee, Bailey, JGP, Casey, Cal, Marts, Palmieri). You can justify each individually, but taken as a whole, that's a lot of money and a lot of years.

I don't hate adding Kadri to this mix - he'll definitely make the current team better (and I'm not worried about bringing in another Center - they can figure that out). But he's not making this team any younger or lowering the cap over the next 4 years. That is definitely an issue. Net/net.....I go for the infusion of talent but the team needs to offload some contracts and bodies.

Fully agree, and therein lies our problem. If they could sign the likes of Kadri to a 2 year deal and trade for one year of Tank, then they could really have legitimate shot for a year or two. But the problem with those long terms deals is that they last well into those players' twilight years and decline. Two years from now we will still be stuck with plenty of those players and have a team on sharp decline, and trading them away will be virtually impossible without paying.

If Kadri signs a 5-6-7 year deal it will be a new burden for those years.

 

[doublechili]

I don't think we have one true anchor. Our biggest problem is that we have a bunch of smaller anchors. Taken in a vacuum, they're each not terrible. But when we put 5-6 of these contracts together, its not great to have 6-7 30+ yr old guys on these types of multi year deals (Lee, Bailey, JGP, Casey, Cal, Marts, Palmieri). You can justify each individually, but taken as a whole, that's a lot of money and a lot of years.

I don't hate adding Kadri to this mix - he'll definitely make the current team better (and I'm not worried about bringing in another Center - they can figure that out). But he's not making this team any younger or lowering the cap over the next 4 years. That is definitely an issue. Net/net.....I go for the infusion of talent but the team needs to offload some contracts and bodies.

Here's a video of Lou and those contracts:

 

[PK Cronin]

Vanek was a legitimate winger... just never felt like he was truly an Islander. Out of curiosity, were you old enough to watch Palffy? Not a trick or gotcha question. Also not debating who was the better overall player Palffy or Vanek. But recalling Palffy has reminded me of how underrated he truly was.

Lol. This is his stat line as a 40 year old NHL retire...

Season

Team.

Lge

GP

G

A

PTS

PIM

+/-

2012-13

Skalica HK 36

Slovak

39

26

47

73

103

40

Yeah, I am. That was the era I grew up with and I had a Palffy jersey (might still be in the closet actually). He was a ton of fun to watch and he had sick flow.

 

[mm11]

Yeah, I am. That was the era I grew up with and I had a Palffy jersey (might still be in the closet actually). He was a ton of fun to watch and he had sick flow.

Ya, Ziggy was great. From day 1 the guy just put up numbers. Good draft pick! But, he was no Hector Marini. That's for sure

 

[seafoam]

I assume Kadri’s already a done deal, but part of me would rather go into the season with the roster as is if Kadri is the big acqusition. Maybe a small addition like Rodrigues or Milano to push whoever looks like shit in camp down the lineup.

NYI’s problem is that they need to get better production out of the gate from guys like Bailey, Beauvillier, Cizikas, Pageau, and Palmieri.

Acquiring Kadri for what I assume will be a rich price tag is only going to compound NYI’s current problem which is getting sub par value out of the guys they are paying to be impact players. I like Kadri and think he’s a good player but the odds of him living up to his next deal are very slim in my opinion.

Overpaying good players will only get you so far, at some point you need to find ways to pay less than market value for good players.

 

[Mike C]

I assume Kadri’s already a done deal, but part of me would rather go into the season with the roster as is if Kadri is the big acqusition. Maybe a small addition like Rodrigues or Milano to push whoever looks like shit in camp down the lineup.

NYI’s problem is that they need to get better production out of the gate from guys like Bailey, Beauvillier, Cizikas, Pageau, and Palmieri.

Acquiring Kadri for what I assume will be a rich price tag is only going to compound NYI’s current problem which is getting sub par value out of the guys they are paying to be impact players. I like Kadri and think he’s a good player but the odds of him living up to his next deal are very slim in my opinion.

Overpaying good players will only get you so far, at some point you need to find ways to pay less than market value for good players.

Getting better production is spot on!

 

[seabass45]

And even more so when we trade away Toews to find space to sign the likes of Palmieri and Cizikas to long terms deals that only benefits the player.

If Kadri is signed, then that vicious circle will just keep on rolling.

Correction on this: Toews was traded in 2020, Cizikas and Palmieri were re-signed a year later (and Palmieri was signed to replace Eberle, thinking it would be a better fit. You decide if that worked out). The reason we needed to trade Toews was really the Pageau extension. That put us over the cap. Lou decided we needed to fill the hole at 3C, which I think was fair, and we could go with Greene at 3LD.

The biggest question in my mind is if we should have given up on the fourth line instead. The year we traded Toews, IIRC our fourth line was making between 8-9 mil. They were still pretty effective but that’s a massive amount of money to spend there and it cost us elsewhere. And that’s what management wanted. Trotz wanted to keep them, I’m sure Lou did, they even protected them from the expansion draft. IMO they should have considered moving on from them while they had value.

 

[4Cups Want More]

We traded Toews after a 28 point season. At the time he had played all of 116 games at the NHL level. As much as we saw the offensive potential, he was not very good in the defensive zone. He was also a RFA who applied for arbitration. With the flat cap, two other RFAs to sign and the expansion draft coming in another year, Lou decided to move him and go with Greene.

I did not have a problem with them moving him at the time for the above reasons. We knew we would only be able to protect 3 defensemen in the expansion draft and we were also up against the cap.

 

[leeroggy]

Fully agree, and therein lies our problem. If they could sign the likes of Kadri to a 2 year deal and trade for one year of Tank, then they could really have legitimate shot for a year or two. But the problem with those long terms deals is that they last well into those players' twilight years and decline. Two years from now we will still be stuck with plenty of those players and have a team on sharp decline, and trading them away will be virtually impossible without paying.

If Kadri signs a 5-6-7 year deal it will be a new burden for those years.

You know those contract terms are not happening

Ya, Ziggy was great. From day 1 the guy just put up numbers. Good draft pick! But, he was no Hector Marini. That's for sure

And has done nothing for us the last three weeks!

 

[JKP]

We traded Toews after a 28 point season. At the time he had played all of 116 games at the NHL level. As much as we saw the offensive potential, he was not very good in the defensive zone. He was also a RFA who applied for arbitration. With the flat cap, two other RFAs to sign and the expansion draft coming in another year, Lou decided to move him and go with Greene.

I did not have a problem with them moving him at the time for the above reasons. We knew we would only be able to protect 3 defensemen in the expansion draft and we were also up against the cap.

This. The revisionist history on Toews is insane. And no one saw C19 destroying the cap either when JGP was signed.

 

[YearlyLottery]

We traded Toews after a 28 point season. At the time he had played all of 116 games at the NHL level. As much as we saw the offensive potential, he was not very good in the defensive zone. He was also a RFA who applied for arbitration. With the flat cap, two other RFAs to sign and the expansion draft coming in another year, Lou decided to move him and go with Greene.

I did not have a problem with them moving him at the time for the above reasons. We knew we would only be able to protect 3 defensemen in the expansion draft and we were also up against the cap.

I mean yeah. Toews was soft in the Tampa series but we all knew he was a solid second pairing defenseman. I was a big fan of Toews but even I understood that during the offseason with COVID and the cap he was the ONLY guy on defense able to be dealt. Not even Leddy had any bites.

 

[cjdv16]

We traded Toews after a 28 point season. At the time he had played all of 116 games at the NHL level. As much as we saw the offensive potential, he was not very good in the defensive zone. He was also a RFA who applied for arbitration. With the flat cap, two other RFAs to sign and the expansion draft coming in another year, Lou decided to move him and go with Greene.

I did not have a problem with them moving him at the time for the above reasons. We knew we would only be able to protect 3 defensemen in the expansion draft and we were also up against the cap.

My 10 year old son is out at quinnipiac for a hockey camp around 6 years ago. Sophomore Devon Toews is helping to run it. As an isles draft pick I’m interested.

So I ask Rand Pecknold, his head coach “What’s the deal with this Toews kid?”

Rand’s response…. “Once he steps foot on NHL ice, he’s never going back down. He will play 15 years in the NHL at a very high level. (His only misstatement)…. He’ll been good, but probably never quite an all-star. “

Pretty good assessment of a 20 year old late round pick from BC. But in the end, even his college coach sold him a bit short.

 

[Skidrow11]

I mean yeah. Toews was soft in the Tampa series but we all knew he was a solid second pairing defenseman. I was a big fan of Toews but even I understood that during the offseason with COVID and the cap he was the ONLY guy on defense able to be dealt. Not even Leddy had any bites.

Basically toews was our most irreplaceable player and nobody knew it. Tavares leaving improved the team. I guess the quickest way for a team to fall apart is having defenseman that can't move the puck up the ice very smoothly. I hope when pullock is able to be traded he will be dealt. That's alot of money for a guy that's not really that good at anything. The islanders had a guy named Krupp that left the isles to win a cup with Colorado too. MALAKHIV WON A CUP WITH JERSEY. guys who move the puck up the ice smoothly are what you need in the playoffs. The strength of the 93 team was the defensman.

 

[Throttle]

I assume Kadri’s already a done deal, but part of me would rather go into the season with the roster as is if Kadri is the big acqusition. Maybe a small addition like Rodrigues or Milano to push whoever looks like shit in camp down the lineup.

NYI’s problem is that they need to get better production out of the gate from guys like Bailey, Beauvillier, Cizikas, Pageau, and Palmieri.

Acquiring Kadri for what I assume will be a rich price tag is only going to compound NYI’s current problem which is getting sub par value out of the guys they are paying to be impact players. I like Kadri and think he’s a good player but the odds of him living up to his next deal are very slim in my opinion.

Overpaying good players will only get you so far, at some point you need to find ways to pay less than market value for good players.

Or the players you are paying currently actually earning their money/cap hit…

Basically toews was our most irreplaceable player and nobody knew it. Tavares leaving improved the team. I guess the quickest way for a team to fall apart is having defenseman that can't move the puck up the ice very smoothly. I hope when pullock is able to be traded he will be dealt. That's alot of money for a guy that's not really that good at anything. The islanders had a guy named Krupp that left the isles to win a cup with Colorado too. MALAKHIV WON A CUP WITH JERSEY. guys who move the puck up the ice smoothly are what you need in the playoffs. The strength of the 93 team was the defensman.

Imagine trading the almighty 100mph shot Pulock to make room for out of position Toews. Isles fans would have been absolutely livid.

 

[BelovedIsles]

Toews was a cap casualty. It would've been nice to trade Leddy or Ladd instead, but likely wasn't possible.

Perhaps if LL didn't lock Leo, Hickey, and others up he may have had the cap flexibility to retain Toews. It's in the past, he's thrived in a system that accentuates his strengths, and NYI have two prospects for him. It is what it is. The two 2nds aren't a great return, but far from the 'fleecing' I keep reading.

 

[YearlyLottery]

Basically toews was our most irreplaceable player and nobody knew it. Tavares leaving improved the team. I guess the quickest way for a team to fall apart is having defenseman that can't move the puck up the ice very smoothly. I hope when pullock is able to be traded he will be dealt. That's alot of money for a guy that's not really that good at anything. The islanders had a guy named Krupp that left the isles to win a cup with Colorado too. MALAKHIV WON A CUP WITH JERSEY. guys who move the puck up the ice smoothly are what you need in the playoffs. The strength of the 93 team was the defensman.

I still disagree with this. They made the Conference Finals the season after still. I think the combination of Leddy and Toews leaving with only a young Dobson to make up for it in the skating department really sunk them. I am fairly sure Lou planned to deal for one at the deadline but his roster did not even make it there (for a variety of reasons).

Or the players you are paying currently actually earning their money/cap hit…


Imagine trading the almighty 100mph shot Pulock to make room for out of position Toews. Isles fans would have been absolutely livid.

Yes because in your world Pulock was not a part of the shutdown defensive unit in the playoffs with Pelech.

 

[JPIsles18]

Overpaid is a player getting paid more than they'd earn on the open market. There is no other definition. Talking about bang for your buck is actually players who are getting paid less than their output. They can't be both at their value and overpaid. None of those players are "bang for your buck" types but they also aren't overpaid.

Dom is a f***ing dope and his models are always shit. He makes the f***ing models and adjusts them every year, meaning there is no baseline for the model and it's absolutely meaningless since he's the only one determining what has value. It'd behoove you to simply ignore anything that guy is peddling.

The Islanders are paying the market rate for too many middle sixers, and aren't getting enough bang for your buck contracts. That doesn't make anyone an anchor or overpaid.

I respectfully disagree. While I don't think Dom's model is perfect, as are other public models, it is data. His data usually translates to the NHL. The one team he has been wrong on every year has been the Isles. He was too low on them two and three years ago. He was too high on them last year. Otherwise, he has been more accurate with his predictions than the traditional "NHL analyst."

As far as adjusting models. That's a good thing. There's nothing wrong with learning new information and applying it to your model. Just like anything else, his models are just another data point.

As far as being overpaid goes. I don't believe Bailey or Palmieri gets 5 mil per year on the open market. Nino just got 4. He is a more productive player than both. However, Erik Gudbransson got 4 mil/year. So there's always a dopey team that overpays. That doesn't mean that's fair value for a player IMO. So I think there is more than one way to think about "overpaid."

I also would like to add that if none of the players I listed weren't "overpaid," and we were spending to the cap, how were we so bad last year? Long road trip? COVID? Or paying too many middle 6 forwards at top 6 prices?

 

[Wanderson]

Give us some news!

 

[PK Cronin]

I respectfully disagree. While I don't think Dom's model is perfect, as are other public models, it is data. His data usually translates to the NHL. The one team he has been wrong on every year has been the Isles. He was too low on them two and three years ago. He was too high on them last year. Otherwise, he has been more accurate with his predictions than the traditional "NHL analyst."

As far as adjusting models. That's a good thing. There's nothing wrong with learning new information and applying it to your model. Just like anything else, his models are just another data point.

He just arbitrarily adjusts the model based on what he thinks he did wrong, so again, there's no baseline and it's no different than if I created my own model. It's not based on some established precedent for winning, but only on recent results, it's always based on what he thinks it should be.

I don't think he's been more right than traditional NHL analysts at all, and the fact he was too low on the Islanders twice in a row (when they did well) and then was too high on them last season (when they did poorly) should tell you everything you need to know about his "models." He doesn't have faith in the model, he's adjusting it to fit what he thinks will happen.

As far as being overpaid goes. I don't believe Bailey or Palmieri gets 5 mil per year on the open market. Nino just got 4. He is a more productive player than both. However, Erik Gudbransson got 4 mil/year. So there's always a dopey team that overpays. That doesn't mean that's fair value for a player IMO. So I think there is more than one way to think about "overpaid."

They both would've gotten $5M more on the open market, yes. Bailey actually took a discount at the time he signed that deal. Palmieri hit the open market and was brought back. If you're basing your "overpaid" claim on a single season, I guess, but it's a really poor way of viewing things.

I also would like to add that if none of the players I listed weren't "overpaid," and we were spending to the cap, how were we so bad last year? Long road trip? COVID? Or paying too many middle 6 forwards at top 6 prices?

They lack top end talent, which is what I said earlier. Having more middle 6 guys than the opposition doesn't suddenly raise them all to McDavid levels. The COVID bout really did a number on them as well, it guaranteed half a dozen losses while the rest of the NHL didn't have that. Late in the season the team was actually ahead of Washington in regulation wins, but were double digit points behind Washington in the standings. That's because they can't win in overtime when other teams put their top tier guys against the Islanders' overabundance of middle six guys and no game breaking talent.

 

[SI]

Correction on this: Toews was traded in 2020, Cizikas and Palmieri were re-signed a year later (and Palmieri was signed to replace Eberle, thinking it would be a better fit. You decide if that worked out). The reason we needed to trade Toews was really the Pageau extension. That put us over the cap. Lou decided we needed to fill the hole at 3C, which I think was fair, and we could go with Greene at 3LD.

The biggest question in my mind is if we should have given up on the fourth line instead. The year we traded Toews, IIRC our fourth line was making between 8-9 mil. They were still pretty effective but that’s a massive amount of money to spend there and it cost us elsewhere. And that’s what management wanted. Trotz wanted to keep them, I’m sure Lou did, they even protected them from the expansion draft. IMO they should have considered moving on from them while they had value.

Let’s be more accurate and precise- the Toews trade was a directly related to the impact of Covid - the cap was going up to 84.5- 88 - Pageau was acquired and then Covid happened.

IMO, they tried to move Leddy and with 6.5 and 7.5 of actual cash owed no one was taking that contract- there was pressure to resign Barzal. Toews elected arbitration and if awarded 5 (I think this number is correct) the Isles would have to accept or if not accept lose the player.

 

[SI]

I assume Kadri’s already a done deal, but part of me would rather go into the season with the roster as is if Kadri is the big acqusition. Maybe a small addition like Rodrigues or Milano to push whoever looks like shit in camp down the lineup.

NYI’s problem is that they need to get better production out of the gate from guys like Bailey, Beauvillier, Cizikas, Pageau, and Palmieri.

Acquiring Kadri for what I assume will be a rich price tag is only going to compound NYI’s current problem which is getting sub par value out of the guys they are paying to be impact players. I like Kadri and think he’s a good player but the odds of him living up to his next deal are very slim in my opinion.

Overpaying good players will only get you so far, at some point you need to find ways to pay less than market value for good players.

I agree that as we wait longer the reality of Kadri to the Isles is more and more likely. The cap hit will be somewhere between 7 and 7.5. IMO, I don’t believe it is more than 5 years (unless of course this is a cizikas type deal that has him getting 8 years for 5 aav).

It is clearly Bailey or Beau being moved and it is this that is holding things up- it sucks for the player and his family to be dangling for the entire summer not knowing if they are staying or going.

 

[The Real JT]

I agree that as we wait longer the reality of Kadri to the Isles is more and more likely. The cap hit will be somewhere between 7 and 7.5. IMO, I don’t believe it is more than 5 years (unless of course this is a cizikas type deal that has him getting 8 years for 5 aav).

It is clearly Bailey or Beau being moved and it is this that is holding things up- it sucks for the player and his family to be dangling for the entire summer not knowing if they are staying or going.

8 years gets him to age 40.

No matter what the AAV is, I’d lose my shit if that happened.