Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[crasherino]

The Isles traded for JGP and he signed his extension on Feb 24, 2020. A couple of weeks later, I vividly recall being at a soccer tournament in Virginia with my son the weekend of March 6-8, 2020, and Covid was a story but still not a huge deal. The following week, I believe March 12th or so, soccer and the schools (and eventually everything else) shut down. It happened fast. And then the NHL followed and eventually the cap increase was cancelled. Toews was traded to COL on Oct 12, 2020. You can't just slough off Covid like it wasn't important. The timeline was JGP - Covid - cap decrease - Toews trade.

The cap froze but I really don't think the $1 - 2m change was going to make a difference. After the JGP extension, we had no wiggle room against the cap. Sure, COVID made it worse but we knew that we only had so much cap room that year. Lou decided to spend it early on JGP. It paid dividends but ended up costing us Toews.

I was pretty bullish on Toews and didn't particularly like the trade but obviously I couldn't predict it would be as bad as it was. But at that point, we didn't have too much of a choice.

 

[mm11]

That line still cracks me up everytime. His foot was on it for like a nanosecond lol.

The judge was right on it! Remember he sent guys to the gas chamber. Didnt want to but felt he had to

 

[MJF]

At the end of the day, we traded for - and signed - JGP instead of re-signing Toews. We had a certain amount of cap room that was effectively exhausted by signing JGP to that deal. Once we hit the offseason it became apparent that we couldn't sign him. Which kinda sucks because he signed for $4m/yr - hardly a kings ransom.

I like JGP and all and he definitely helped us advance to the semis that year but overall, I don't think I'd take that swap, considering the players, picks and costs involved.

Let’s remember what was going on with the team back then. At the time we traded and signed JGP we were very thin at center. Casey Cizikas was injured, we were forced to use Derek Brassard at center (where he was ineffective) instead of wing because we had no centers to call up from the AHL. The season was getting away from us and we fell from top of the Metro to WC1 at that point.

 

[crasherino]

Let’s remember what was going on with the team back then. At the time we traded and signed JGP we were very thin at center. Casey Cizikas was injured, we were forced to use Derek Brassard at center (where he was ineffective) instead of wing because we had no centers to call up from the AHL. The season was getting away from us and we fell from top of the Metro to WC1 at that point.

Everything you say is valid and on point and, ultimately, the reason we made the move. And it almost put us over the edge that season - can't take that away. What we didn't fully appreciate at the time is that the money that went to JGP forced us to move Toews. Not sure if Lou made that calculation when he traded for him (as Chili suggests, COVID threw a wrench into everything), but we ultimately couldn't pay his asking price. Considering it was only $4m/yr, that's unfortunate.

 

[doublechili]

Signing Dobson to a bridge deal is going to be a mistake. We gotta lock that guy up.

I suggested 8x $6M for Dobson recently if they can agree to that. It's a bit of a dice roll for both sides, but it would be right in line with what Pelech and Pulock got. The only thing is that it adds maybe $2M to the cap in the short term over what a bridge would be.

 

[MJF]

Everything you say is valid and on point and, ultimately, the reason we made the move. And it almost put us over the edge that season - can't take that away. What we didn't fully appreciate at the time is that the money that went to JGP forced us to move Toews. Not sure if Lou made that calculation when he traded for him (as Chili suggests, COVID threw a wrench into everything), but we ultimately couldn't pay his asking price. Considering it was only $4m/yr, that's unfortunate.

Had Noah Dobson not shown the flash of promise he did in the bubble playoffs it’s possible Lou would have looked for a way to keep Toews. I think that playoff made Lou feel more comfortable about letting Toews go.

 

[doublechili]

I think someone maybe already mentioned this, but apparently CGY may be looking to move Valimaki and it might not cost much. It doesn't seem that long ago that he was this stud prospect. Has he really gone down in value that much? Worthwhile reclamation project as a return for Bailey or Beau (if Cgy has space)?

BTW, WPG fans seem on board with Bailey or Beau, FWIW.

 

[CupHolders]

Just a reminder the cap did not JUST freeze. Every year at the trade deadline the NHL provides guidance on what to expect the cap will be for the following year. Then they make the official public announcement shortly after. The guidance is based on current and expected revenues for that season. It provides organization to plan current and future cap allocations

After the Pageau trade deadline the NHL had already announced one of the highest cap increases for the following season. Approximately two weeks later they retracted that due to COVID shutdown.

It’s understandable that the NHL retracted. As it’s understandable that teams like the Isles expected an additional 3m team and a total 90m+ of cap space throughout the NHL for the following year.

NHL salary cap projected to rise next season | NHL.com

Range likely to be between $84 million and $88.2 million; CBA talks continue

www.nhl.com

Ah, March 4th, 2020… how little we knew the world was about to implode! Short sided stupid Lou!

 

[JKP]

Signing Dobson to a bridge deal is going to be a mistake. We gotta lock that guy up.

My assumption is the desire for a bridge would come from Dobson's side. Wait 3 years with a decent payday, then go for 8yrs and big dollars when the cap is going up again.

 

[JKP]

Just a reminder the cap did not JUST freeze. Every year at the trade deadline the NHL provides guidance on what to expect the cap will be for the following year. Then they make the official public announcement shortly after. The guidance is based on current and expected revenues for that season. It provides organization to plan current and future cap allocations

After the Pageau trade deadline the NHL had already announced one of the highest cap increases for the following season. Approximately two weeks later they retracted that due to COVID shutdown.

It’s understandable that the NHL retracted. As it’s understandable that teams like the Isles expected an additional 3m team and a total 90m+ of cap space throughout the NHL for the following year.

NHL salary cap projected to rise next season | NHL.com

Range likely to be between $84 million and $88.2 million; CBA talks continue

www.nhl.com

Ah, March 4th, 2020… how little we knew the world was about to implode! Short sided stupid Lou!

Yeah, with the cap always going up there's a big compounding effect GMs were likely expecting in 20-21, 21-22 and 22-23 that has simply not happened.

 

[PK Cronin]

Just a reminder the cap did not JUST freeze. Every year at the trade deadline the NHL provides guidance on what to expect the cap will be for the following year. Then they make the official public announcement shortly after. The guidance is based on current and expected revenues for that season. It provides organization to plan current and future cap allocations

After the Pageau trade deadline the NHL had already announced one of the highest cap increases for the following season. Approximately two weeks later they retracted that due to COVID shutdown.

It’s understandable that the NHL retracted. As it’s understandable that teams like the Isles expected an additional 3m team and a total 90m+ of cap space throughout the NHL for the following year.

NHL salary cap projected to rise next season | NHL.com

Range likely to be between $84 million and $88.2 million; CBA talks continue

www.nhl.com

Ah, March 4th, 2020… how little we knew the world was about to implode! Short sided stupid Lou!

It it impacted the entire league, not just the Islanders too. Which made it harder to move any contract that had neutral or negative value that would traditionally be easier to move. If there was no pandemic and cap freeze I can't imagine a scenario where Leddy was kept over Toews.

 

[CupHolders]

Yeah, with the cap always going up there's a big compounding effect GMs were likely expecting in 20-21, 21-22 and 22-23 that has simply not happened.

Correct. But again to be clear, this wasn’t the typical just planning on the cap going up since it always has. Cause in that sense I blame any GM who just counts on that to happen.

This was specifically the NHL providing their annual guidance after the majority of regular season revenue was already collected. The NHL ultimately finalizes the following seasons cap around the draft. But they have NEVER deviated much from their trade deadline cap guidance.

They were giving out numbers for the cap at an additional 3mil to add high as 7mil.

It it impacted the entire league, not just the Islanders too. Which made it harder to move any contract that had neutral or negative value that would traditionally be easier to move. If there was no pandemic and cap freeze I can't imagine a scenario where Leddy was kept over Toews.

Yep. By lowest estimates, 90mil of total NHL cap space for the following year was pulled away AFTER it was reported to the general public.

 

[PK Cronin]

Correct. But again to be clear, this wasn’t the typical just planning on the cap going up since it always has. Cause in that sense I blame any GM who just counts on that to happen.

This was specifically the NHL providing their annual guidance after the majority of regular season revenue was already collected. The NHL ultimately finalizes the following seasons cap around the draft. But they have NEVER deviated much from their trade deadline cap.

They were giving out numbers for the cap at an additional 3mil to add high as 7mil.


Yep, by lowest estimates 90mil of total cap space league wide for the following year was pulled away AFTER it was reported to the general public.

Oh, and the other thing it did was create uncertainty for owners, both for their NHL franchises and their other business interests. They were taking real hits economically with no end in sight, so real money being paid out to players was a hurdle for some GMs who might've been willing to spend a little bit had everything continued along as normal. Teams that were near the floor were also still at the floor and didn't need to increase spending further limiting the pool of teams willing to take on contracts.

You're right on the money and anyone suggesting that Lamoriello f***ed that trade up has their head in the sand. It was one of the worst scenarios to be put in and it wasn't because Lamoriello gave Hickey an extra million bucks, it was because the world was going into the toilet with no end in sight.

 

[Sheva7]

My assumption is the desire for a bridge would come from Dobson's side. Wait 3 years with a decent payday, then go for 8yrs and big dollars when the cap is going up again.

Yup I totally understand and you're probably right, but this is where a top GM negotiates to get the deal done now.

 

[leeroggy]

The judge was right on it! Remember he sent guys to the gas chamber. Didnt want to but felt he had to

Judge Smails for head of the UN!

I think someone maybe already mentioned this, but apparently CGY may be looking to move Valimaki and it might not cost much. It doesn't seem that long ago that he was this stud prospect. Has he really gone down in value that much? Worthwhile reclamation project as a return for Bailey or Beau (if Cgy has space)?

BTW, WPG fans seem on board with Bailey or Beau, FWIW.

I proposed Bailey for Valimaki on a main board thread and Calgary fans felt they couldn't absorb the hit since Monohan's recovery is well ahead of schedule.

 

[seafoam]

Agreed. Tito also ups his game in the playoffs.

So does Bailey?

 

[doublechili]

I proposed Bailey for Valimaki on a main board thread and Calgary fans felt they couldn't absorb the hit since Monohan's recovery is well ahead of schedule.

What's Jeff Gillooly up to these days?

 

[Doshell Propivo]

So does Bailey?

In the AHL?

 

[seafoam]

I disagree. This team is already lacking speed and Beau is one of the few forwards who has some. I would rather move Josh all things being considered, even if now it is likely to get nothing meaningful back.

No, I am hoping Lambert changes things up a little to get all of our under 25's some more "offensive chances" which includes the youngsters (Ollie, Kieffer maybe, Raty and others down the road) as well as our two 25 year old buddies in Matty and AB

Skating is only as valuable as what you can accomplish with it, which in Beauvillier’s case for most of his career case hasn’t been all that much.

He’s not a Nichushkin-esque forechecker, he’s not getting a breakaway or two a game like Grabner, and he’s not an elite zone entry winger like Panarin.

In my opinion even with “+” skating he’s just kind of there in my opinion, an opportunist if you will.

In the AHL?

50 points in 71 NHL playoff games, you can’t honestly be serious. These statistics are on the official Islanders website.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

50 points in 71 NHL playoff games, you can’t honestly be serious. These statistics are on the official Islanders website.

Sorry. My sarcasm is off today. I was carrying over some of the ridiculous talk in the Bailey thread that he should be in the AHL.

 

[periferal]

I think someone maybe already mentioned this, but apparently CGY may be looking to move Valimaki and it might not cost much. It doesn't seem that long ago that he was this stud prospect. Has he really gone down in value that much? Worthwhile reclamation project as a return for Bailey or Beau (if Cgy has space)?

Serious question...Why would Calgary be looking to move Valimaki? Don't know many teams that want to trade a 6'2/212lb D-man who's 23 years old...Unless it's part of a deal to get a much better player back.

They have him for one more year at 1.5M until RFA so would make sense to see what they have and if he can take that next step.

BTW, WPG fans seem on board with Bailey or Beau, FWIW.

But why? Winnipeg lost out on Trotz and now they just want anything from the isles?

 

[YearlyLottery]

Skating is only as valuable as what you can accomplish with it, which in Beauvillier’s case for most of his career case hasn’t been all that much.

He’s not a Nichushkin-esque forechecker, he’s not getting a breakaway or two a game like Grabner, and he’s not an elite zone entry winger like Panarin.

In my opinion even with “+” skating he’s just kind of there in my opinion, an opportunist if you will.


50 points in 71 NHL playoff games, you can’t honestly be serious. These statistics are on the official Islanders website.

Holy shit. The bolded is something I am going to say a lot from now on. Hope you don't mind it.

Big teams can win. Go look at the Kings run of dominance. Bruins. You need goaltending as well. It CAN be done.

 

[doublechili]

Serious question...Why would Calgary be looking to move Valimaki? Don't know many teams that want to trade a 6'2/212lb D-man who's 23 years old...Unless it's part of a deal to get a much better player back.

They have him for one more year at 1.5M until RFA so would make sense to see what they have and if he can take that next step.




But why? Winnipeg lost out on Trotz and now they just want anything from the isles?

There's a "Flames trading a defenseman" thread on the trade board, and the name I see most often is Valimaki, and they're not necessarily expecting a huge return.

I saw several posts by WPG fans expressing interest in Bailey or Beau. They need a top 6 winger. Funny you mention Trotz. If he did sign on to coach WPG, Bailey would probably already be on their roster. Oh well....

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Serious question...Why would Calgary be looking to move Valimaki? Don't know many teams that want to trade a 6'2/212lb D-man who's 23 years old...Unless it's part of a deal to get a much better player back.

They have him for one more year at 1.5M until RFA so would make sense to see what they have and if he can take that next step.

As I understand it, the Flames have 10 Dmen on one-way deals and are clear about who their top 6 are.

But sure, don't know why Valimaki would be the odd man out in this scenario.

 

[MYIslanders]

Serious question, why do so many people want to trade Beau? IMO is one of the few who goes all out every shift. The other one I think of is Pageau who is now also being spoken of in trade ideas…I don’t get it. I love guys like that.