Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[Mike C]

Serious question, why do so many people want to trade Beau? IMO is one of the few who goes all out every shift. The other one I think of is Pageau who is now also being spoken of in trade ideas…I don’t get it. I love guys like that.

Probably because at Beauvillier's age, he can bring a solid return and he hasn't lived up to expectations. For all his speed, his lazy passes last season were very noticeable. His shot looked flat more and more as the season went on. In fairness to him, I am sure he lost some confidence due to Barry's "tough love" approach

I'd put Parise in the the "hustles all the time" crew also!

 

[GOLFWANG]

The answer is rather simple: SInce it looks like we are signing Kadri, we then have to move salary out. As of right now salary seems to be very valuable and it might be hard to trade players that us as fans would rather trade. So the only way to become better right now is to trade what we can that other teams find value in. If we want to sign Kadri and no one finds value in Bailey we are shit out of luck. So you move down the list to see who is expendable and who can be traded and out of all the names Tito seems like someone that could have some value to a team out there.

So it's not like people want to trade Tito or Toews. Since we continually are running into cap problems lately we can't just continue to add future assets to a trade as we will have no future.

So everyone would love to trade Ladd and Bailey and whoever stinks but who the hell wants them especially in today's cap world. And if Bailey or whoever was that easy to be traded it would have happened already if we were gonna sign Kadri so obviously it isn't easy to trade anyone these current times.

 

[SI]

The cap froze but I really don't think the $1 - 2m change was going to make a difference. After the JGP extension, we had no wiggle room against the cap. Sure, COVID made it worse but we knew that we only had so much cap room that year. Lou decided to spend it early on JGP. It paid dividends but ended up costing us Toews.

I was pretty bullish on Toews and didn't particularly like the trade but obviously I couldn't predict it would be as bad as it was. But at that point, we didn't have too much of a choice.

The cap was potentially moving up to as high as 88- COVID 19 didn’t make it worse it has impacted the NHL for the next 5 years. NO Covid and the cap 22-23 could be close to or over 90 with the new TV deals

 

[SI]

I still think the best way to move forward would be deal Bailey for a d man making similar $.

The Jets and Blues currently have young LHD who are currently being blocked by veterans with 2 years left on their deals.

Scandella 2/3.25 or Dillon 2/3.9

The Jets could certainly use F and F’s, who could log minutes - Bailey seems like a fit there. The Jets have only 9 F’s under contract.

Dillon and Bailey make the same actual cash.

Scandella for Bailey would be a win for the Blues. Isles save cap space and Scandella can move into that 6th d man

 

[JPIsles18]

He just arbitrarily adjusts the model based on what he thinks he did wrong, so again, there's no baseline and it's no different than if I created my own model. It's not based on some established precedent for winning, but only on recent results, it's always based on what he thinks it should be.

I don't think he's been more right than traditional NHL analysts at all, and the fact he was too low on the Islanders twice in a row (when they did well) and then was too high on them last season (when they did poorly) should tell you everything you need to know about his "models." He doesn't have faith in the model, he's adjusting it to fit what he thinks will happen.



They both would've gotten $5M more on the open market, yes. Bailey actually took a discount at the time he signed that deal. Palmieri hit the open market and was brought back. If you're basing your "overpaid" claim on a single season, I guess, but it's a really poor way of viewing things.



They lack top end talent, which is what I said earlier. Having more middle 6 guys than the opposition doesn't suddenly raise them all to McDavid levels. The COVID bout really did a number on them as well, it guaranteed half a dozen losses while the rest of the NHL didn't have that. Late in the season the team was actually ahead of Washington in regulation wins, but were double digit points behind Washington in the standings. That's because they can't win in overtime when other teams put their top tier guys against the Islanders' overabundance of middle six guys and no game breaking talent.

It's not arbitrary. It's a pretty well thought out public model. Isles fans tend to hate on public models because it usually doesn't paint the Isles and Lou in a pretty light. Also, aside from last year, most public models have been. There's a paywall here. However, check out the results of his game probabilities and betting odds: 2021-22-nhl-predictions-review. His results are very impressive compared to other public models and against market odds. I don't agree with the notion that he's some sort of guy off the street who arbitrarily puts numbers together for his model. These results are very impressive.

Furthermore, regarding of the players I named, I stand by my overpaid distinction. Pageau was not worth 5/year then, he isn't now. Palmieri length/term was risky at the time, still is now. Bailey had a career year with 71 pt but had xGF of -10.7 that year. The underlying metrics were there to demonstrate he wasn't worth the investment at that time. However, re-signing him was the right move at that particular time. He is still overpaid based on what he is: a 3rd liner. Palmieri is a 3rd liner. JGP is a 3rd liner.

From personal experience, I once had three offers on the table. Two were very close and one was way above market value. Based on the revenue I was bringing in, I was grossly overpaid. However, by your logic, I was paid just right because that's what I was paid. Just because a team/employer pays somebody more than what they're worth, does not mean that's what their fair market value is. Some teams/employers are just not good judges of value. I guarantee you Sakic doesn't sign any of those guys to those contracts. They're just not good contracts.

 

[SI]

When Friedman talks free agency he is always talking about overall $.

I wonder if the Kadri camp was looking to cash in on a contract totalling 50. That $ is obviously not there for Kadri and there are not many teams in pursuit.

I wonder if that overall # looks more like 35 now - 5y/7aav.

What if Lou offered 7y/5aav?

 

[Stercrazy]

Dave pagnotta on NHL radio has reiterated what everyone has been assuming....Kadri is most likely an Islander along with other deals such as extensions for dobby. He also mentioned the familiar names that might be moved such as Beau or Bails. Take it for what it is worth.

 

[MJF]

Serious question, why do so many people want to trade Beau? IMO is one of the few who goes all out every shift. The other one I think of is Pageau who is now also being spoken of in trade ideas…I don’t get it. I love guys like that.

1. Beauvillier isn’t a consistent finisher. He’s too streaky. I doubt he ever puts it all together and becomes the 25-30 goal scorer we once thought he’d be.

2. Beau’s age and contract are more appealing to other teams than a guy like Bailey. That should get us a better return in a trade.

 

[PK Cronin]

It's not arbitrary. It's a pretty well thought out public model. Isles fans tend to hate on public models because it usually doesn't paint the Isles and Lou in a pretty light. Also, aside from last year, most public models have been. There's a paywall here. However, check out the results of his game probabilities and betting odds: 2021-22-nhl-predictions-review. His results are very impressive compared to other public models and against market odds. I don't agree with the notion that he's some sort of guy off the street who arbitrarily puts numbers together for his model. These results are very impressive.

I've looked at it, I'm not impressed. Did you check out my pre-season predictions? I got 3 out of the 4 teams right too! Did you see IslesNorway crush the playoff bracket multiple years in a row? It doesn't take a genius to figure this stuff out. I don't hate it because it's a public model, I hate it because it's mostly bullshit data and they like to use proxies for the actual thing they're looking for.

Also, once again,

Apologies to Islanders fans, but you have to admit that crying for three years about a lack of respect, finally getting it, and immediately falling flat on your face is incredible comedic timing. I truly believed in them this year and that might as well have been the kiss of death. They were projected to win the division, but instead finished fifth — 17 points lower than expected. I guess they finally regressed!

My model wasn’t the only one to finally believe in this team. It was difficult not to after consecutive conference finals berths.

The models finally gave them respect? The models that predicted them to not do well previously suddenly changed for this season to show they'd do well, despite the fact it was mostly the same team coming back? But then they got that wrong too. How does that happen when the "models" are so good?

Also, my favorite part:

Ah the playoffs, my old nemesis.

As has been the case for a while, the model stumbled when it mattered most. It really is the Leafs of models.

Why should I give a f*** about his model that can't predict anything during the most important time of year? There are legitimately posters on here who have a better track record of predicting playoff series than this guy's model.

I'm not accusing him of being an idiot or some guy hired of the street, I'm suggesting that his models suck and shouldn't be used as evidence of anything. If my full time job was to watch hockey and then write about it I'm fairly confident I'd be better than his model for predicting things. It really doesn't take a genius to look at the standings and pick half the playoff teams to make it the next year.

Furthermore, regarding of the players I named, I stand by my overpaid distinction. Pageau was not worth 5/year then, he isn't now. Palmieri length/term was risky at the time, still is now. Bailey had a career year with 71 pt but had xGF of -10.7 that year. The underlying metrics were there to demonstrate he wasn't worth the investment at that time. However, re-signing him was the right move at that particular time. He is still overpaid based on what he is: a 3rd liner. Palmieri is a 3rd liner. JGP is a 3rd liner.

If you like advanced stats that's on you, I'm not here to change your mind. They're fine in small doses but if you rely on them too much you end up looking like Dubas.

From personal experience, I once had three offers on the table. Two were very close and one was way above market value. Based on the revenue I was bringing in, I was grossly overpaid. However, by your logic, I was paid just right because that's what I was paid. Just because a team/employer pays somebody more than what they're worth, does not mean that's what their fair market value is. Some teams/employers are just not good judges of value. I guarantee you Sakic doesn't sign any of those guys to those contracts. They're just not good contracts.

Incorrect summation of my position.

If your value to the company is the same as your co-workers but you earn more money than they do, you're overpaid. In this instance, those players are paid a comparable rate as the players with similar ability and contributions.

 

[SI]

1. Beauvillier isn’t a consistent finisher. He’s too streaky. I doubt he ever puts it all together and becomes the 25-30 goal scorer we once thought he’d be.

2. Beau’s age and contract are more appealing to other teams than a guy like Bailey. That should get us a better return in a trade.

What kind of return are you thinking is a good return, when Bjorkstrand got a 3rd and 4th back?

 

[MJF]

What kind of return are you thinking is a good return, when Bjorkstrand got a 3rd and 4th back?

For Beau we should be able to get a prospect and a pick.

Bjorkstrand was traded after CBJ signed Gaudreau so they were trading from a weaker position.

 

[leeroggy]

When Friedman talks free agency he is always talking about overall $.

I wonder if the Kadri camp was looking to cash in on a contract totalling 50. That $ is obviously not there for Kadri and there are not many teams in pursuit.

I wonder if that overall # looks more like 35 now - 5y/7aav.

What if Lou offered 7y/5aav?

Honestly, you think we have a snowballs chance in Hell getting away with the same AAV as Bailey?

Get serious

 

[Skidrow11]

For Beau we should be able to get a prospect and a pick.

Bjorkstrand was traded after CBJ signed Gaudreau so they were trading from a weaker position.

Beau is the exact kind of player that this team needs less of. He should be moved even before his cap space is needed. Theres zero chance any islander season or any playoff round, goes down the tube because of a injury to Beau. For what he provides anything more than 1 million is taking money from players that are necessary. Like another puck moving good skating defenseman.

 

[periferal]

There's a "Flames trading a defenseman" thread on the trade board, and the name I see most often is Valimaki, and they're not necessarily expecting a huge return.

I saw several posts by WPG fans expressing interest in Bailey or Beau. They need a top 6 winger. Funny you mention Trotz. If he did sign on to coach WPG, Bailey would probably already be on their roster. Oh well....

i honestly think this is just fans who really don't know what's going on throwing out names. There's no realy upside to the Flames trading Valimaki. At best they'd get a mid-round pick, so given his superb measureables they should keep him and hope he puts it together. He's owed 1.5M for one more year regardless so they lose nothing by keeping him, but could lose a ton if they trade him for nothing and he hits.

As I understand it, the Flames have 10 Dmen on one-way deals and are clear about who their top 6 are.

But sure, don't know why Valimaki would be the odd man out in this scenario.

Not sure what 10 D-men you're referring to. I see 7 so Valimaki wouldn't even be the odd man out.

 

[periferal]

Serious question, why do so many people want to trade Beau? IMO is one of the few who goes all out every shift. The other one I think of is Pageau who is now also being spoken of in trade ideas…I don’t get it. I love guys like that.

I have such mixed feelings on Beauvillier. It's like for every positive you can point out, there's also something negative about his game...

He seems like a very likable guy who, as you said, goes all out on every shift. The problem is that I don't think he's that smart. His "all out" style is more like a "chicken with its head cut off" style as he seems to run all over the place with great energy, but often little strategy.

At the same time he's got above average speed, hands, and shot, so he's got the raw potential to be a 30/30 guy...and yet going into his 7th year he's seemed to have topped out as someone who can't even score 40 points a season.

Yet...His PPG go UP during the playoffs which is literally the #1 thing you want from any NHL player. I mean look at these highlights from the 2021 playoff run...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wr8DviWCpzE

Beauvillier is all over these highlights and no way we make it to game 7 of the semifinals without him.

End of day I think Beauvillier could be special, but instead is just inconsistently decent. In an era where cap space is always going to be at a premium not all players can be kept, and Beauvillier just isn't consistent enough to be one of them - Especially that he's due a raise in 2 seasons and really isn't worth much more than he's being paid now.

 

[seabass45]

Huberdeau extends. Have to say I’m surprised, figured he might want to play a bit before deciding this is where he wants to be for the next nine years. Good for Calgary, and that’s the first top tier 2023 UFA winger off the board.

 

[crashthenet]

As we have witnessed, it is extremely detrimental to bring young players into an environment without real veteran leadership. That Blackhawk roster next year is brutal. They don't have a single forward of consequence on the roster beyond this year.

 

[doublechili]

i honestly think this is just fans who really don't know what's going on throwing out names. There's no realy upside to the Flames trading Valimaki. At best they'd get a mid-round pick, so given his superb measureables they should keep him and hope he puts it together. He's owed 1.5M for one more year regardless so they lose nothing by keeping him, but could lose a ton if they trade him for nothing and he hits.



Not sure what 10 D-men you're referring to. I see 7 so Valimaki wouldn't even be the odd man out.

CGY has a top 5 of Hanifin, Andersson, Tanev, Weegar and Zadorov. Last year Kylington was in their top 4 but he may drop to the bottom pairing. Then there's Valimaki and Mackey who will both be subject to waivers for the first time this coming season. That's 8 D. And they also have Meloche and Gilbert as depth defensemen, and the idea is that one of them would be best as an 8th defenseman since they can probably be shuttled back and forth between the NHL and AHL and would pass through waivers.

So it seems like one of Kylington, Valimaki or Mackey is likely to get dealt to get them down to 7 NHL defensemen, with Valimaki being the name the fans mention most. I'd be good with Kylington too, if that's the guy they deal. For some reason Mackey isn't getting as much mentions.

 

[Glorydays22]

I think before we write off Beau, how about giving him a chance to play in a more offensive system. Trotz system kills anyone who has speed and offensive creativity.

25 yrs old, fast, good 2 way player, got a good shot just needs to shoot more. He's been playing on a line with Brock and either Lee or Bailey most of he NHL time with the isles. He is and was the player on that line that had to all the dirty work for them. Look at Brock's numbers playing with Beau...heck go back a few years and look at Bailey's numbers playing with him too. He needs to be on a line with Brazal. Remember the Beau-Brazal-Eberle line a few years ago. They were clicking so good and what does Barry do, splits them up because he needed the 2nd line to produce so he move Beau down there to get Brock and Bailey going.

I'm not in favor of trading him....at the very least not yet. If Lou is such a good GM (GM of the year 2 years in a row - WHAT A JOKE). Let's see some magic and move Bailey instead. Shit, maybe Lou needs to stop being friends with these guys. Tell Martin, retire or you are in the minors next year. That's 1.5M easily we can save.

And this talk about Pageau being traded..Really? who's our 3rd line center then? What we are moving our top goal scorer in Brock Nelson to the 3rd line. Does that make sense. If we do sign Kadri, he's certainly not going to the 3rd line.

Kadri is just such a bad fit here.....He's a square peg trying to fit in a round hole. We are trading guys, moving players around in the lineup just to add him and that God help us (probably insane) contract... Wow

Man I'm going to hate on Sept 1st when Lou finally decides to release all these signings we are hearing about. It's not going to be a good day in my opinion.

 

[danteipp]

I like Huberdeau as a player (at least right now), but that contract and the way it is structured is going to age like dogsh!t in the Florida sun.

$61.5 million in signing bonus money is absurd, making the contract buyout, lockout and salary rollback proof, and tough for smaller market teams to take on in a salary dump down the line. Because few owners will want to take on a bad contract where you also have to cut the player a $7-9.5 million signing bonus every summer.

This feels like a contract that will end up with the player on LTIR for the last several years. I would also be surprised if it is even insurable in those later years, without costing a ton in premiums. Thereby further limiting Calgary in those later years, because now you are paying a declining player plus the insurance cost.

Seems like a reactionary move by the Flames, who still badly need help down the middle. Someone let them know that Bailey was a center in juniors and would be a bargain at $5 million, lol. Let's go Lou, strike while the Flames are in desperation mode.

 

[BelovedIsles]

Dave pagnotta on NHL radio has reiterated what everyone has been assuming....Kadri is most likely an Islander along with other deals such as extensions for dobby. He also mentioned the familiar names that might be moved such as Beau or Bails. Take it for what it is worth.

Thank you for this. You made my scroll through 4 pages more satisfying.

 

[JPIsles18]

I've looked at it, I'm not impressed. Did you check out my pre-season predictions? I got 3 out of the 4 teams right too! Did you see IslesNorway crush the playoff bracket multiple years in a row? It doesn't take a genius to figure this stuff out. I don't hate it because it's a public model, I hate it because it's mostly bullshit data and they like to use proxies for the actual thing they're looking for.

Also, once again,


The models finally gave them respect? The models that predicted them to not do well previously suddenly changed for this season to show they'd do well, despite the fact it was mostly the same team coming back? But then they got that wrong too. How does that happen when the "models" are so good?

Also, my favorite part:



Why should I give a f*** about his model that can't predict anything during the most important time of year? There are legitimately posters on here who have a better track record of predicting playoff series than this guy's model.

I'm not accusing him of being an idiot or some guy hired of the street, I'm suggesting that his models suck and shouldn't be used as evidence of anything. If my full time job was to watch hockey and then write about it I'm fairly confident I'd be better than his model for predicting things. It really doesn't take a genius to look at the standings and pick half the playoff teams to make it the next year.


If you like advanced stats that's on you, I'm not here to change your mind. They're fine in small doses but if you rely on them too much you end up looking like Dubas.



Incorrect summation of my position.

If your value to the company is the same as your co-workers but you earn more money than they do, you're overpaid. In this instance, those players are paid a comparable rate as the players with similar ability and contributions.

You keep bringing up Dubas. There is no shame in the team that he has built in Toronto. In his tenure as the GM, the team has averaged ~106 pt/82 game season. The playoff record has been poor in terms of first round exits: 7 games vs Boston in 2019; Lost to CBJ in 5 game series (play in) in 2020; lost in 7 games to Canadiens in 2021; lost in 7 games in 2022 to the Lightning.

Dubas haș built a great team in Toronto. The inability to get out of the first round is obviously not a good look. He has made mistakes. The biggest one was signing John Tavares. By signing in Tavares and moving on from Kadri, they got an upgrade at the center position. However, what nobody anticipated was the cap staying flat. It made it difficult for them to build their backend. Despite that, they have been excellent the last two seasons. They were the better team against the Canadiens, but got beat by much better goaltending. Against the Lightning, they could've easily won. The series was a dog fight and the results were basically a coin flip. The Canadiens and the Lightning both went on to the SC finals in those respective seasons.

Also, Yzerman and Sakic are heavy into "analytics."

I'm not really sure what the Dubas hate is all about. He's done a mostly good job and has built an excellent team that's looking better each year. The same can't be said about the current Islander team.

 

[beach]

You keep bringing up Dubas. There is no shame in the team that he has built in Toronto. In his tenure as the GM, the team has averaged ~106 pt/82 game season. The playoff record has been poor in terms of first round exits: 7 games vs Boston in 2019; Lost to CBJ in 5 game series (play in) in 2020; lost in 7 games to Canadiens in 2021; lost in 7 games in 2022 to the Lightning.

Dubas haș built a great team in Toronto. The inability to get out of the first round is obviously not a good look. He has made mistakes. The biggest one was signing John Tavares. By signing in Tavares and moving on from Kadri, they got an upgrade at the center position. However, what nobody anticipated was the cap staying flat. It made it difficult for them to build their backend. Despite that, they have been excellent the last two seasons. They were the better team against the Canadiens, but got beat by much better goaltending. Against the Lightning, they could've easily won. The series was a dog fight and the results were basically a coin flip. The Canadiens and the Lightning both went on to the SC finals in those respective seasons.

Also, Yzerman and Sakic are heavy into "analytics."

I'm not really sure what the Dubas hate is all about. He's done a mostly good job and has built an excellent team that's looking better each year. The same can't be said about the current Islander team.

Dubas sucks and will be relieved of his duties along with Shanaplan in April. That is all.

 

[beach]

It just dawned on me that Evan Rodrigues is probably an Islander. Am I right?

 

[NYI365]

It just dawned on me that Evan Rodrigues is probably an Islander. Am I right?

That's how I was feeling about Sonny Milano yesterday lmao