Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[leeroggy]

It just dawned on me that Evan Rodrigues is probably an Islander. Am I right?

So is Kessel, Stastny, Subban and 12 others. We are UNSTOPPABLE.

 

[leeroggy]

Looking at Capfriendly and came up with the "Who??? UFA Team"

Goal - Tyler Wall - 24-years old
LD - Brinsom Pasichnuk - 24-years old
RD - Will Reilly - 24-years old
RW - Hudson Fasching - 26-years old - a former favorite of this Forum in his draft year!
C - Odeen Tufto - 25 years old
LW - Yauheni Aksianstiuk - just 21 years old!

Arizona, come on down!

 

[beach]

So is Kessel, Stastny, Subban and 12 others. We are UNSTOPPABLE.

 

[JKP]

I'm not really sure what the Dubas hate is all about. He's done a mostly good job and has built an excellent team that's looking better each year. The same can't be said about the current Islander team.

My hate for Captain Spreadsheet is two-fold.

First, the fawning media over him in my country, where even though there are seven NHL teams, one team gets 60-70% of the coverage even though it hasn't won shit in 15 years.

I think they like him because he's slick and accessible, but they pump his tires I suspect because they've been told to – our two sports networks happen to be owned by the two telcos that own 75% of MLSE.

Second, he isn't good – he was given a team with some good players (and a top-5 in AM), lots of cap space, some decent prospects and a fistful of picks and he's got nothing to show for it.

He got completely bent over by (and caved to) his three RFAs because he overpaid a player he didn't need (Snake). He keeps doubling down on 50% cap on 4 Fs and mediocre D & goaltending. There is zero culture of accountability there at all. Respect in a handshake line is the pinnacle of the 4 years he's had Austin Mathews. I think they're now mentally soft when the pressure is on due to all that losing and no accountability.

That's all on him. He's supposed to drive a culture of winning and accountability. But he doesn't deviate from his spreadsheets, he keeps doubling down. The players get paid, they hit the golf course early, the media gives him a pass. 100+ points in the regular season sells 82 nights of TV. Corporate owner happy.

As @beach says, I would expect that whole regime will get turfed next April after they choke in the first round again. But, I also expected that to happen this year...

 

[Big L]

You keep bringing up Dubas. There is no shame in the team that he has built in Toronto. In his tenure as the GM, the team has averaged ~106 pt/82 game season. The playoff record has been poor in terms of first round exits: 7 games vs Boston in 2019; Lost to CBJ in 5 game series (play in) in 2020; lost in 7 games to Canadiens in 2021; lost in 7 games in 2022 to the Lightning.

Dubas haș built a great team in Toronto. The inability to get out of the first round is obviously not a good look. He has made mistakes. The biggest one was signing John Tavares. By signing in Tavares and moving on from Kadri, they got an upgrade at the center position. However, what nobody anticipated was the cap staying flat. It made it difficult for them to build their backend. Despite that, they have been excellent the last two seasons. They were the better team against the Canadiens, but got beat by much better goaltending. Against the Lightning, they could've easily won. The series was a dog fight and the results were basically a coin flip. The Canadiens and the Lightning both went on to the SC finals in those respective seasons.

Also, Yzerman and Sakic are heavy into "analytics."

I'm not really sure what the Dubas hate is all about. He's done a mostly good job and has built an excellent team that's looking better each year. The same can't be said about the current Islander team.

Shirley, you must be joking

 

[seafoam]

Huberdeau extends. Have to say I’m surprised, figured he might want to play a bit before deciding this is where he wants to be for the next nine years. Good for Calgary, and that’s the first top tier 2023 UFA winger off the board.

He was never going to get anywhere close to 84 million on the open market next year, plus even with the recent departures Calgary consistently pops up on "Most Livable Cities in the World" lists. By all accounts it's a good spot for the average Canadian and even better for a millionaire.

 

[PK Cronin]

You keep bringing up Dubas. There is no shame in the team that he has built in Toronto. In his tenure as the GM, the team has averaged ~106 pt/82 game season. The playoff record has been poor in terms of first round exits: 7 games vs Boston in 2019; Lost to CBJ in 5 game series (play in) in 2020; lost in 7 games to Canadiens in 2021; lost in 7 games in 2022 to the Lightning.

Dubas haș built a great team in Toronto. The inability to get out of the first round is obviously not a good look. He has made mistakes. The biggest one was signing John Tavares. By signing in Tavares and moving on from Kadri, they got an upgrade at the center position. However, what nobody anticipated was the cap staying flat. It made it difficult for them to build their backend. Despite that, they have been excellent the last two seasons. They were the better team against the Canadiens, but got beat by much better goaltending. Against the Lightning, they could've easily won. The series was a dog fight and the results were basically a coin flip. The Canadiens and the Lightning both went on to the SC finals in those respective seasons.

Also, Yzerman and Sakic are heavy into "analytics."

I'm not really sure what the Dubas hate is all about. He's done a mostly good job and has built an excellent team that's looking better each year. The same can't be said about the current Islander team.

Well, we're done here. You grab one component of the post and harp on it like it's my entire point, and not only that, you're wrong about your assessment of Dubas.

He's not good and has continually f***ed up that roster ensuring they don't do well in the playoffs.

 

[Strummergas]

It just dawned on me that Evan Rodrigues is probably an Islander. Am I right?

Along with every other UFA who hasn't had a deal announced yet.

 

[Mike C]

Along with every other UFA who hasn't had a deal announced yet.

Good one!!

He was never going to get anywhere close to 84 million on the open market next year, plus even with the recent departures Calgary consistently pops up on "Most Livable Cities in the World" lists. By all accounts it's a good spot for the average Canadian and even better for a millionaire.

ANY spot is good for a millionaire

 

[Mike C]

Thank you for this. You made my scroll through 4 pages more satisfying.

I've gotten good at "speed scrolling"

 

[danteipp]

My hate for Captain Spreadsheet is two-fold.

First, the fawning media over him in my country, where even though there are seven NHL teams, one team gets 60-70% of the coverage even though it hasn't won shit in 15 years.

I think they like him because he's slick and accessible, but they pump his tires I suspect because they've been told to – our two sports networks happen to be owned by the two telcos that own 75% of MLSE.

Second, he isn't good – he was given a team with some good players (and a top-5 in AM), lots of cap space, some decent prospects and a fistful of picks and he's got nothing to show for it.

He got completely bent over by (and caved to) his three RFAs because he overpaid a player he didn't need (Snake). He keeps doubling down on 50% cap on 4 Fs and mediocre D & goaltending. There is zero culture of accountability there at all. Respect in a handshake line is the pinnacle of the 4 years he's had Austin Mathews. I think they're now mentally soft when the pressure is on due to all that losing and no accountability.

That's all on him. He's supposed to drive a culture of winning and accountability. But he doesn't deviate from his spreadsheets, he keeps doubling down. The players get paid, they hit the golf course early, the media gives him a pass. 100+ points in the regular season sells 82 nights of TV. Corporate owner happy.

As @beach says, I would expect that whole regime will get turfed next April after they choke in the first round again. But, I also expected that to happen this year...

I think you mistyped and meant to say they haven't won shit in 55 years.

 

[Glorydays22]

That's how I was feeling about Sonny Milano yesterday lmao

I rather sign Evan Rodrigues over Milano.

 

[JKP]

I think you mistyped and meant to say they haven't won shit in 55 years.

I was trying to be generous. They did make a conference finals the year they cheap-shotted their way through us in '02...

 

[MJF]

It just dawned on me that Evan Rodrigues is probably an Islander. Am I right?

If he's unsigned, Lou signed him and stuffed the contract in his desk drawer.

 

[saintunspecified]

I rather sign Evan Rodrigues over Milano.

Yeah, Rodrigues is a limited player, but he's a limited player excellent players are happy to play with. Milano is a limited player, and a player teams seem happy to see the back of.

 

[beach]

If he's unsigned, Lou signed him and stuffed the contract in his desk drawer.

Evan himself might be stuffed in Lou's drawer until Sept.

 

[leeroggy]

He was never going to get anywhere close to 84 million on the open market next year, plus even with the recent departures Calgary consistently pops up on "Most Livable Cities in the World" lists. By all accounts it's a good spot for the average Canadian and even better for a millionaire.

Signing Huberdeau for $10.5 per just makes him ever more desirable to Toronto!

Good one!!


ANY spot is good for a millionaire

Particularly Southern cities with lots of single women

 

[seabass45]

He was never going to get anywhere close to 84 million on the open market next year, plus even with the recent departures Calgary consistently pops up on "Most Livable Cities in the World" lists. By all accounts it's a good spot for the average Canadian and even better for a millionaire.

Oh I get that part, the eighth year is huge, I just mean it's a big decision to take before playing a game under a coach who has a reputation for being tough. I'd want to spend a little more time getting acclimated before making a decision like this. Felt the same about Pageau but that's a similar story, he ended up getting a really solid contract, maybe better than he would have in UFA.

 

[JPIsles18]

Well, we're done here. You grab one component of the post and harp on it like it's my entire point, and not only that, you're wrong about your assessment of Dubas.

He's not good and has continually f***ed up that roster ensuring they don't do well in the playoffs.

I do not mean to offend. I understood the crux of your post to be anti-analytics. If I misunderstood that, then I apologize.

You seem to be set in your ways regarding analytics. It's a broad term and their are dozens of well known public models. Most teams also have private models they adhere to. Overall, the best way to determine their worth is their predictive value. I happen to like Dom's model for instance because I've used his model for betting purposes with great success. There are people I know who bet professionally, who use his model to make bets. They have their own models as well. Math is not a bad thing. I'm not really sure how you extrapolated the data of the above article, but by any mathematical principle, Dom's model is good.

This brings me to Dubas. People hate on Dubas because he is very openly heavy on analytics. There's no other reason to hate him. There's also no reason to think he sucks.

His notable trade history:
- Trading down and drafting Rasmus Sandin
- Salary dumped Matt Martin to Isles for no cost
- Grundstrom, Durzi, 1st rounder (Bjornfoot) for Muzzin
- Salary dumped Marleau for 1st rounder (Seth Jarvis) - paid a lot to get rid of a bad Lou contract
- Traded Zaitsev and Brown to Senators in another salary dump (Zaitsev) - cost him Brown, who is a pretty good player - Zaitsev was another bad Lou signing
- Traded Kadri for Kerfoot and Barrie - this was actually a bad trade as I thought they'd be better off keeping Kadri at 4.5 mil rather than JT at 11+.
- Acquire Campbell and Clifford for basically nothing - Campbell was mostly a positive for them at a position Dubas never fully addressed over his tenure
- Traded Mason Marchment for Dennis Malgin- This was a bad trade as Marchment became pretty damn good
- Traded a 1st round pick for Nick Foligno as a rental - this was an overpayment as part of an over correction for not being "tough" enough. Foligno contributed virtually nothing during their run.
- Traded for Mark Giordano for a 2nd and 3rd round picks, then signed him to league minimum- IMO an excellent move
- Traded for Matt Murray - IMO a bad move as Murray is not very good

His trading history above was first getting rid of the bad contracts Lou collected. Then, he started dumping good players to make room for the JT signing. Which is a signing they did not need to make. The flat cap made that decision even worse. Dubas has also been unable to get an elite level goalie. The defense has also been an issue at times. Again, because of the top heavy contract structure they have.

Now many people have issues with the contracts he gave to the RFAs. I am not one. My only gripe would be that they weren't long enough. Matthews, and Marner are elite levels player and have always played up to their contracts. I suppose pre-COVID, they wouldn't have agreed to 8 year deals at those numbers, but they are worth every penny. Nylander at 6.9 is a bargain as well.

His roster isn't perfect. There have always been questions about defense and goaltending. However, that is still a 105 point team on average since he took over despite Lou's best efforts to submarine the team with awful contracts.

He's the GM of a top 5 team in the league. They just lost to the Lightning in a 7 game series, where they were just as good during the series. That was an excellent series with two excellent teams. 4 years in, this is Dubas' team.

But we all have our biases. Right or wrong, mostly we stick with them. Teams that have ignored the data "analytics" provide have struggled. Teams that have embraced it, haven't. The proof is in the results. All you have to do is look at the standings and the recent cup winners. There are obvious outliers (Canadiens), but for the most part they are teams that squeeze the most value out of their cap space. Data is what allows them to do that. "Analytics" is just a polarizing word to describe data.

 

[danteipp]

I do not mean to offend. I understood the crux of your post to be anti-analytics. If I misunderstood that, then I apologize.

You seem to be set in your ways regarding analytics. It's a broad term and their are dozens of well known public models. Most teams also have private models they adhere to. Overall, the best way to determine their worth is their predictive value. I happen to like Dom's model for instance because I've used his model for betting purposes with great success. There are people I know who bet professionally, who use his model to make bets. They have their own models as well. Math is not a bad thing. I'm not really sure how you extrapolated the data of the above article, but by any mathematical principle, Dom's model is good.

This brings me to Dubas. People hate on Dubas because he is very openly heavy on analytics. There's no other reason to hate him. There's also no reason to think he sucks.

His notable trade history:
- Trading down and drafting Rasmus Sandin
- Salary dumped Matt Martin to Isles for no cost
- Grundstrom, Durzi, 1st rounder (Bjornfoot) for Muzzin
- Salary dumped Marleau for 1st rounder (Seth Jarvis) - paid a lot to get rid of a bad Lou contract
- Traded Zaitsev and Brown to Senators in another salary dump (Zaitsev) - cost him Brown, who is a pretty good player - Zaitsev was another bad Lou signing
- Traded Kadri for Kerfoot and Barrie - this was actually a bad trade as I thought they'd be better off keeping Kadri at 4.5 mil rather than JT at 11+.
- Acquire Campbell and Clifford for basically nothing - Campbell was mostly a positive for them at a position Dubas never fully addressed over his tenure
- Traded Mason Marchment for Dennis Malgin- This was a bad trade as Marchment became pretty damn good
- Traded a 1st round pick for Nick Foligno as a rental - this was an overpayment as part of an over correction for not being "tough" enough. Foligno contributed virtually nothing during their run.
- Traded for Mark Giordano for a 2nd and 3rd round picks, then signed him to league minimum- IMO an excellent move
- Traded for Matt Murray - IMO a bad move as Murray is not very good

His trading history above was first getting rid of the bad contracts Lou collected. Then, he started dumping good players to make room for the JT signing. Which is a signing they did not need to make. The flat cap made that decision even worse. Dubas has also been unable to get an elite level goalie. The defense has also been an issue at times. Again, because of the top heavy contract structure they have.

Now many people have issues with the contracts he gave to the RFAs. I am not one. My only gripe would be that they weren't long enough. Matthews, and Marner are elite levels player and have always played up to their contracts. I suppose pre-COVID, they wouldn't have agreed to 8 year deals at those numbers, but they are worth every penny. Nylander at 6.9 is a bargain as well.

His roster isn't perfect. There have always been questions about defense and goaltending. However, that is still a 105 point team on average since he took over despite Lou's best efforts to submarine the team with awful contracts.

He's the GM of a top 5 team in the league. They just lost to the Lightning in a 7 game series, where they were just as good during the series. That was an excellent series with two excellent teams. 4 years in, this is Dubas' team.

But we all have our biases. Right or wrong, mostly we stick with them. Teams that have ignored the data "analytics" provide have struggled. Teams that have embraced it, haven't. The proof is in the results. All you have to do is look at the standings and the recent cup winners. There are obvious outliers (Canadiens), but for the most part they are teams that squeeze the most value out of their cap space. Data is what allows them to do that. "Analytics" is just a polarizing word to describe data.

Wow, lots of opinions seemingly being passed off as facts.

Lets keep this short and sweet, with the only fact that most hockey fans care about, the Isles have won more playoffs series under Lou than the Leafs have under Dubas.

And for a second fact, this is an Isles board and we don't want a novelization of the Dubas story. Stop derailing the thread.

 

[doublechili]

You keep bringing up Dubas. There is no shame in the team that he has built in Toronto. In his tenure as the GM, the team has averaged ~106 pt/82 game season.

The problem with crediting Dubas for "building" TOR is that they had 105 points the last year Lou was GM. So Dubas basically inherited Lou's team, signed Tavares, and improved the team by 1 point in the past 4 years with zero playoff success. I think they should name a trophy after him.

 

[BrockLobster]

I do not mean to offend. I understood the crux of your post to be anti-analytics. If I misunderstood that, then I apologize.

You seem to be set in your ways regarding analytics. It's a broad term and their are dozens of well known public models. Most teams also have private models they adhere to. Overall, the best way to determine their worth is their predictive value. I happen to like Dom's model for instance because I've used his model for betting purposes with great success. There are people I know who bet professionally, who use his model to make bets. They have their own models as well. Math is not a bad thing. I'm not really sure how you extrapolated the data of the above article, but by any mathematical principle, Dom's model is good.

This brings me to Dubas. People hate on Dubas because he is very openly heavy on analytics. There's no other reason to hate him. There's also no reason to think he sucks.

His notable trade history:
- Trading down and drafting Rasmus Sandin
- Salary dumped Matt Martin to Isles for no cost
- Grundstrom, Durzi, 1st rounder (Bjornfoot) for Muzzin
- Salary dumped Marleau for 1st rounder (Seth Jarvis) - paid a lot to get rid of a bad Lou contract
- Traded Zaitsev and Brown to Senators in another salary dump (Zaitsev) - cost him Brown, who is a pretty good player - Zaitsev was another bad Lou signing
- Traded Kadri for Kerfoot and Barrie - this was actually a bad trade as I thought they'd be better off keeping Kadri at 4.5 mil rather than JT at 11+.
- Acquire Campbell and Clifford for basically nothing - Campbell was mostly a positive for them at a position Dubas never fully addressed over his tenure
- Traded Mason Marchment for Dennis Malgin- This was a bad trade as Marchment became pretty damn good
- Traded a 1st round pick for Nick Foligno as a rental - this was an overpayment as part of an over correction for not being "tough" enough. Foligno contributed virtually nothing during their run.
- Traded for Mark Giordano for a 2nd and 3rd round picks, then signed him to league minimum- IMO an excellent move
- Traded for Matt Murray - IMO a bad move as Murray is not very good

His trading history above was first getting rid of the bad contracts Lou collected. Then, he started dumping good players to make room for the JT signing. Which is a signing they did not need to make. The flat cap made that decision even worse. Dubas has also been unable to get an elite level goalie. The defense has also been an issue at times. Again, because of the top heavy contract structure they have.

Now many people have issues with the contracts he gave to the RFAs. I am not one. My only gripe would be that they weren't long enough. Matthews, and Marner are elite levels player and have always played up to their contracts. I suppose pre-COVID, they wouldn't have agreed to 8 year deals at those numbers, but they are worth every penny. Nylander at 6.9 is a bargain as well.

His roster isn't perfect. There have always been questions about defense and goaltending. However, that is still a 105 point team on average since he took over despite Lou's best efforts to submarine the team with awful contracts.

He's the GM of a top 5 team in the league. They just lost to the Lightning in a 7 game series, where they were just as good during the series. That was an excellent series with two excellent teams. 4 years in, this is Dubas' team.

But we all have our biases. Right or wrong, mostly we stick with them. Teams that have ignored the data "analytics" provide have struggled. Teams that have embraced it, haven't. The proof is in the results. All you have to do is look at the standings and the recent cup winners. There are obvious outliers (Canadiens), but for the most part they are teams that squeeze the most value out of their cap space. Data is what allows them to do that. "Analytics" is just a polarizing word to describe data.

And whats all this get them? Absolutely nothing. A playoff embarrassment for the last 5 yrs

 

[leeroggy]

The problem with crediting Dubas for "building" TOR is that they had 105 points the last year Lou was GM. So Dubas basically inherited Lou's team, signed Tavares, and improved the team by 1 point in the past 4 years with zero playoff success. I think they should name a trophy after him.

The Dubious Doobie Doo Dubas Lifetime Achievement Award?

 

[doublechili]

- Salary dumped Marleau for 1st rounder (Seth Jarvis) - paid a lot to get rid of a bad Lou contract
- Traded Zaitsev and Brown to Senators in another salary dump (Zaitsev) - cost him Brown, who is a pretty good player - Zaitsev was another bad Lou signing

You can't blame the Marleau and Zaitsev trades on Lou. Marleau scored 27 goals in the first year of his 3 year contract under Lou. Then he played another year under Dubas. Dubas likely could have traded Marleau at the TDL but elected to keep him. Then he decided that summer he needed to create space (probably for another bad signing or trade) so rather than keeping Marleau for the last season of his contract he paid a 1st rounder pick to get rid of him. That's on Dubas, not Lou.

The Zaitsev trade was for Cody Ceci, who stinks. Dubas would have been better off keeping Zaitsev and Brown.

 

[JPIsles18]

The problem with crediting Dubas for "building" TOR is that they had 105 points the last year Lou was GM. So Dubas basically inherited Lou's team, signed Tavares, and improved the team by 1 point in the past 4 years with zero playoff success. I think they should name a trophy after him.

Sure, but since that time their top players all received massive raises. They have been able to maintain their regular season success while having to get cheaper at the fringes. There is value in that. Other GMs may have traded a Nylander, Rielly, etc. They have been able to keep the core intact while eliminating bad contracts.

The postseason results speak for themselves. They have not gotten past the first round. They lost to some good teams. It happens. Like, I said it isn't perfect. But the process is good, but needs tweaks.

However, this is an Isles board. And my greater point isn't about Dubas. I just find it overall interesting how anti-analytics this board is as a whole. Dubas in the GM embodiment of all things analytics. One can say he hasn't been good enough. And that is fair. I agree. But to say he sucks, is not accurate. There is value in maintaining a 100+ point team every season in a salary cap world. Some posters on here find zero to no value in the data.

Sakic and Yzerman are the standards in todays NHL. Two guys heavily invested in data.