Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[xECK29x]

View attachment 575156

The Sabres need Bishop's corpse to get to the floor

 

[SI]

The Sabres need Bishop's corpse to get to the floor

In this scenario they have Bailey.

 

[periferal]

Huberdeau extends. Have to say I’m surprised, figured he might want to play a bit before deciding this is where he wants to be for the next nine years. Good for Calgary, and that’s the first top tier 2023 UFA winger off the board.

Agreed 100%. And as a result Calgary definitely won that trade. Now if they resign (or trade) Weegar it becomes even more lopsided.

If Lou is such a good GM (GM of the year 2 years in a row - WHAT A JOKE). Let's see some magic and move Bailey instead. Shit, maybe Lou needs to stop being friends with these guys. Tell Martin, retire or you are in the minors next year. That's 1.5M easily we can save.

And this talk about Pageau being traded..Really? who's our 3rd line center then? What we are moving our top goal scorer in Brock Nelson to the 3rd line. Does that make sense. If we do sign Kadri, he's certainly not going to the 3rd line.

Kadri is just such a bad fit here.....He's a square peg trying to fit in a round hole. We are trading guys, moving players around in the lineup just to add him and that God help us (probably insane) contract... Wow

Man I'm going to hate on Sept 1st when Lou finally decides to release all these signings we are hearing about. It's not going to be a good day in my opinion.

Oh man. Reading this I worry for the safety of you and your family. The Lou stans are not to be messed with. Please take care of yourself.

 

[seafoam]

Not saying this to ruffle any feathers, but where are the ‘hockey trades’ Lamoriello referenced so many times last deadline?

 

[eoin92]

Not saying this to ruffle any feathers, but where are the ‘hockey trades’ Lamoriello referenced so many times last deadline?

They’re in the drawer.

 

[Mike C]

They’re in the drawer.

Top drawer or bottom?

 

[Lek]

Top drawer or bottom?

Bottom drawer...with the bottle of cheap scotch.

 

[seafoam]

Bottom drawer...with the bottle of cheap scotch.

I can’t imagine Lou drinks scotch, cheap or not.

 

[eoin92]

Top drawer or bottom?

Can’t tell you. I took a dippin dot oath.

 

[Glorydays22]

Agreed 100%. And as a result Calgary definitely won that trade. Now if they resign (or trade) Weegar it becomes even more lopsided.




Oh man. Reading this I worry for the safety of you and your family. The Lou stans are not to be messed with. Please take care of yourself.

I thank you for your concern of my family and myself. Good to have guys like you as islander fans.

 

[Mike C]

I thank you for your concern of my family and myself. Good to have guys like you as islander fans.

he knows from experience!

just jiving brother!

 

[leeroggy]

he knows from experience!

just jiving brother!

Besides, we can blame any violent acts on Putin and Xi

 

[Mike C]

Besides, we can blame any violent acts on Putin and Xi

And the old/new standby "mental illness"

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Not saying this to ruffle any feathers, but where are the ‘hockey trades’ Lamoriello referenced so many times last deadline?

Well, obviously he traded for Romanov. So there's that.

But, with respect to the forward corps that EVERYONE in the business says isn't efficient enough as is, it's been silence. It was at the trade deadline. It was at the draft. It remains that way in August.

Sure, he may surprise us all. What are the chances?

I've mentioned it recently elsewhere, but after doing nothing for months at times where GMs are most willing and ready to move parts (i.e. trade deadline and the draft), if adding a guy like Kadri means Lou turns around and moves a Pageau or Bailey or Beauvillier under market value, much less pays someone to take them off our hands, then that is failure. That is disgusting, disgusting asset management.

Especially for a club that has been averaging just 5 draft picks every summer and has gone three years without a first.

There is simply no other way to see it.

With 11 million in cap space and 14 NHL forwards in the fold, many of whom offer some modicum of trade value, you should never let things come to the scenario I just painted above.

We're not there. Yet.

Alas, we all saw how Lou entered last season, so it's pretty doggone hard to think he's going to be able to pull this all out in a manner any respectable GM should have been able to do.

I love the idea of making use of the time you have.

But it always entails the risk of backing yourself into a corner and having to pay the piper to get out.

And our team build is such that this wasn't necessary.

 

[YearlyLottery]

If Kadri steps on the ice this season for the Isles very little posters will not like his play. Everyone gets out of contracts. No contract is untradeable.

 

[periferal]

Well, obviously he traded for Romanov. So there's that.

But, with respect to the forward corps that EVERYONE in the business says isn't efficient enough as is, it's been silence. It was at the trade deadline. It was at the draft. It remains that way in August.

Sure, he may surprise us all. What are the chances?

I've mentioned it recently elsewhere, but after doing nothing for months at times where GMs are most willing and ready to move parts (i.e. trade deadline and the draft), if adding a guy like Kadri means Lou turns around and moves a Pageau or Bailey or Beauvillier under market value, much less pays someone to take them off our hands, then that is failure. That is disgusting, disgusting asset management.

Especially for a club that has been averaging just 5 draft picks every summer and has gone three years without a first.

There is simply no other way to see it.

With 11 million in cap space and 14 NHL forwards in the fold, many of whom offer some modicum of trade value, you should never let things come to the scenario I just painted above.

We're not there. Yet.

Alas, we all saw how Lou entered last season, so it's pretty doggone hard to think he's going to be able to pull this all out in a manner any respectable GM should have been able to do.

I love the idea of making use of the time you have.

But it always entails the risk of backing yourself into a corner and having to pay the piper to get out.

And our team build is such that this wasn't necessary.

What is going on here today...? Rational/informed posts from quality posters questioning the job Lou is doing?

If Kadri steps on the ice this season for the Isles very little posters will not like his play. Everyone gets out of contracts. No contract is untradeable.

Right, but if boxing your team into a corner where you need to trade a 1st in a superb draft to get out of a bad contract, that's just not good GMing.

 

[seafoam]

Well, obviously he traded for Romanov. So there's that.

But, with respect to the forward corps that EVERYONE in the business says isn't efficient enough as is, it's been silence. It was at the trade deadline. It was at the draft. It remains that way in August.

Sure, he may surprise us all. What are the chances?

I've mentioned it recently elsewhere, but after doing nothing for months at times where GMs are most willing and ready to move parts (i.e. trade deadline and the draft), if adding a guy like Kadri means Lou turns around and moves a Pageau or Bailey or Beauvillier under market value, much less pays someone to take them off our hands, then that is failure. That is disgusting, disgusting asset management.

Especially for a club that has been averaging just 5 draft picks every summer and has gone three years without a first.

There is simply no other way to see it.

With 11 million in cap space and 14 NHL forwards in the fold, many of whom offer some modicum of trade value, you should never let things come to the scenario I just painted above.

We're not there. Yet.

Alas, we all saw how Lou entered last season, so it's pretty doggone hard to think he's going to be able to pull this all out in a manner any respectable GM should have been able to do.

I love the idea of making use of the time you have.

But it always entails the risk of backing yourself into a corner and having to pay the piper to get out.

And our team build is such that this wasn't necessary.

Is the Romanov trade really what Lamoriello was referring to when he said hockey trade? He just traded a future, no one has been subtracted from the roster except Chara and Greene (that we know of).

 

[YearlyLottery]

What is going on here today...? Rational/informed posts from quality posters questioning the job Lou is doing?



Right, but if boxing your team into a corner where you need to trade a 1st in a superb draft to get out of a bad contract, that's just not good GMing.

If Ladd did not need a 1st round pick what makes you think Kadri would need one? Do you think that Kadri is going to be a worse player than Ladd was here?

 

[Islanders4Cups]

My prediction is the dominos will fall and trades will happen if/when Kadri is signed.

Kadri is a center and the Islanders are strong at the center position with the exception being our top center underperforms because he does not have a winger with a nose for and hands to find the net aside from Parise in the fading twilight of his career.

I am guessing if Kadri signs, Nelson will be asked to move to wing which is a bad option in my opinion OR more likely Pageau will be traded

It then comes down to what caliber winger can Lou get for players like Pageau and Beauvillier (I see little value in Bailey and see him as a costly salary dump/trade).

If Pageau, Beauvillier + are not enough to land a prized winger, then Lou will have to throw Varley in the mix.

If Kadri is not coming, then I think Varley will definitely be traded along with Beauvillier for a winger.

A lot is still possible but I do still believe Lou‘s statement that a hockey trade is coming to improve this team.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

What is going on here today...? Rational/informed posts from quality posters questioning the job Lou is doing?

As someone who has spent a lot of time around these parts praising the man for the instant recognition and stability he brought back to the club, I fully recognize that this is the defining year of his tenure. Anything resembling last season, including a relatively simple first round ouster at the hands of an opponent, should mean it's time to move on and take a different route.

He's thrown futures around like used bras and yes, they've brought back a couple of established players, neither of whom have put us over the top.

Now he needs a crowning moment. Could still come.

Going into the season with what we have now would certainly be the riskiest path for him to take.

Is the Romanov trade really what Lamoriello was referring to when he said hockey trade? He just traded a future, no one has been subtracted from the roster except Chara and Greene (that we know of).

True. I was thinking of player acquisition.

But you're right. We're thinking of a player for player move as a "hockey trade" and that hasn't come yet.

Seems like plenty of opportunity was there. But who knows what the other GMs are demanding of him.

These guys aren't stupid and I'm betting that all of them are looking for ways to sneak away with our 2023 1st as part of any deals. And who'd blame them with the way Lou has been approaching the draft in recent years.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

My prediction is the dominos will fall and trades will happen if/when Kadri is signed.

Kadri is a center and the Islanders are strong at the center position with the exception being our top center underperforms because he does not have a winger with a nose for and hands to find the net aside from Parise in the fading twilight of his career.

I am guessing if Kadri signs, Nelson will be asked to move to wing which is a bad option in my opinion OR more likely Pageau will be traded

It then comes down to what caliber winger can Lou get for players like Pageau and Beauvillier (I see little value in Bailey and see him as a costly salary dump/trade).

If Pageau, Beauvillier + are not enough to land a prized winger, then Lou will have to throw Varley in the mix.

If Kadri is not coming, then I think Varley will definitely be traded along with Beauvillier for a winger.

A lot is still possible but I do still believe Lou‘s statement that a hockey trade is coming to improve this team.

Ain't happening. Varly is only a viable trading chip in our minds.

I guarantee you, he's not on the table.

 

[JPIsles18]

So it's exactly what I said originally, he's continually adjusting the model as he goes which means that using previous model success as a predicator of future success is silly. It'd be one thing if he created models using historically great teams and said they all have [x] in common and it's constant over every era of hockey, but that's not the case. Models also accept trends in the game and would punish anything outside of those trends. Think of the CORSI/FENWICK discussion from years past. Using those as proxies for possession and/or goal scoring predictability in a historic sense is fine, if you're doing what I mentioned above with historic teams. What becomes a problem is once teams and players are aware of the usage of that stat and they believe it correlates to more wins the more you'll see them adjust strategy to fit it into their game plan. For example, if Trotz bought into CORSI/FENWICK he could emphasize quantity over quality to help inflate those statistics even though quality over quantity was working just fine for his team.

There are just a lot of issues I have with all of these things.

The fact that the eye test told me what the model couldn't for two years is also an issue I have and helps demonstrate that the models are still behind a person's ability to understand what's happening in real time.

This is an example of confirmation bias. I read that blurb and don't see him proving your point. What he was saying is that the Isles weren't that good leading up to the 2020 playoffs. He's right. They had a -1 goal differential and were 7th place in the strange COVID Eastern Conference. Then they turned it on. What he is saying in that blurb is that the sample size needed to get bigger for him to start believing the Isles. In the 2020-2021 season, they were quite good per his model and other public models. Also via the eye test.

You have made it clear of your thoughts, and it is what it is. The debate over analytics has always been a dumb one. Both sides of the aisle are typically absolutists. CORSI was heavy into quantity of shots. This proved to be flawed. The evolution has brought us to xGF which values quality over quantity. There is still a lot of subjective game tracking that goes into it. I've never been a fan of CORSI, but I like the idea of tracking quality of chances. That's all it is. That's all Dom's model is based on. It's not the end all be all, and it's not gospel. It's a guide. Trotz was ahead of the curve when it came to quality over quantity. It took a little bit for the team to fire on all cylinders. It started happening in 2020 play in round.

In 2018-2019, the Isles had 104 pts. They were exactly at 50% xGF, which was league average. However, they had the best goaltending in the league at .937 sv% with the Lehner/Varlamov tandem that year.

You choose to understand the data as Dom changing his model to enhance the Isles, but the truth is, they started playing better and were less reliant on elite goaltending between 2020-2021. Bottom line is, if you forget that nonsensical terms like CORSI, FENWICK, xGF, etc exist, and look at it in the simplest way possible: does my team produce more scoring chances than it gives up at 5 on 5- that's all that's being propped up by public models. But I won't convince you. And that's ok. We just have a different way of consuming the game we love.

 

[Big L]

What is the end game for Doms model? What is it he’s tying to achieve but never does season after season?

 

[JKP]

What is the end game for Doms model? What is it he’s tying to achieve but never does season after season?

Clicks

 

[PK Cronin]

This is an example of confirmation bias. I read that blurb and don't see him proving your point. What he was saying is that the Isles weren't that good leading up to the 2020 playoffs. He's right. They had a -1 goal differential and were 7th place in the strange COVID Eastern Conference. Then they turned it on. What he is saying in that blurb is that the sample size needed to get bigger for him to start believing the Isles. In the 2020-2021 season, they were quite good per his model and other public models. Also via the eye test.

You have made it clear of your thoughts, and it is what it is. The debate over analytics has always been a dumb one. Both sides of the aisle are typically absolutists. CORSI was heavy into quantity of shots. This proved to be flawed. The evolution has brought us to xGF which values quality over quantity. There is still a lot of subjective game tracking that goes into it. I've never been a fan of CORSI, but I like the idea of tracking quality of chances. That's all it is. That's all Dom's model is based on. It's not the end all be all, and it's not gospel. It's a guide. Trotz was ahead of the curve when it came to quality over quantity. It took a little bit for the team to fire on all cylinders. It started happening in 2020 play in round.

In 2018-2019, the Isles had 104 pts. They were exactly at 50% xGF, which was league average. However, they had the best goaltending in the league at .937 sv% with the Lehner/Varlamov tandem that year.

You choose to understand the data as Dom changing his model to enhance the Isles, but the truth is, they started playing better and were less reliant on elite goaltending between 2020-2021. Bottom line is, if you forget that nonsensical terms like CORSI, FENWICK, xGF, etc exist, and look at it in the simplest way possible: does my team produce more scoring chances than it gives up at 5 on 5- that's all that's being propped up by public models. But I won't convince you. And that's ok. We just have a different way of consuming the game we love.

This is as simple as I can put it:

The earlier Islanders teams were worse, with [x] inputs being used.
The later Islander team was better, with [y] inputs being used.
Then we're being told, "see, the Islanders got better over time" which isn't at all what the model is saying since it isn't modeling the same thing year to year.

As for the bolded, you and the article told me he's changed the model during that time period. You can't have it both ways.