Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[12Dog]

Again, it is being realistic.

Winnipeg will have little to no interest in Pageau, so it would be a package around the 1st rounder and one of our young blueline prospects headlining the deal one would think.

The "won't require too much of a sweetner" with 2 years and a 5 million cap hit each season (even with only 7.5 million of it actually being cash) left will be that extra 2nd rounder he just traded for and perhaps even the higher 2nd rounder we already had. Islander fans should actually "hope" that is enough of a sweetner for a non-top 6er making 5 million per the next two seasons and "averaging" a meager 16 goals and 40 points in his 4+ seasons as an Islander (per 82).

Assuming the 1st rounder+ prospect package nets Ehlers (6 million) and you are able to trade JGP without any retention (plus adding your two RFA's) you are left with 3-4 million in cap still needing minimum a 6th defender and 2 forwards and that means bargain shopping, unless you move off another contract.

Barzal, Horvat, Dobson and Sorokin aren't likely to get moved and neither are Romanov, Cizikas or Varlamov because they are actually worth their cap hit and wouldn't be worth the risk of trading especially with how little cap space they would give us. Mayfield and Engvall are essentially unmovable with 6 years left on their contracts coming off the subpar and injury-filled seasons especially...

Since you are adamant about Lee not getting moved, then that means Pulock, Pelech, Nelson or Palms as being the only ones left. Trading any of them to open up 5-6 million in cap space will simply be to REPLACE THEM since they are in fact your 2nd line forwards and blueliners respectively. It isn't going to be so you can add to our group but rather just hopefully upgrade them.

A rather bleak realization actually....

I’m not adamant about Lee getting moved. I’d love to move him, hated the contract the minute it was signed. Realistically don’t see Lou wanting to move him.
Him and Pelech are 2 I’d move in a heartbeat.
As others have said, Nelson and to some extent Palmieri actually have varying degrees of value. I’d be open to moving any or all of them, Lee, Nelson, Palmieri.
Depending on what the returns are, a retool on the fly is possible

 

[doublechili]

Put me in the camp that is doubtful that Nelson and/or Palmieri are moved. Does a team (especially a LL team) that needs offense trade its #1 and #3 goal scorers from last season? More likely that Nelson gets extended for 4 years after July 1st, honestly. Silence on Palms until it's announced during camp next year that he extended for 1 or 2 years. And if they're not dealt this offseason, there's no TDL deal unless the Isles are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs by then.

As much as the team needs skill in the top 6, I still think an (at least) equally important need is to add a PMD to the top 4. Didn't Roy seem to put a huge emphasis on breakouts? I'd love to be a fly on the wall when he and Lou spoke after the season. Not sure how that's accomplished with the Pelech/Pulock (and Mayfield) NTCs, but replacing one of them with a high skill guy would be huge.

 

[periferal]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1800550809304006847

Been speculating about this for a while. I'd say 50/50 Ehlers is an Islander opening night

Legit curious how Rosner would know this for certain, much less report it, since basically every single trade Lou has done wasn't reported on even as the faintest of rumors before it was completed.

Just being around the Isles doesn't mean you know anything about Lou's inner workings.

 

[slurpee addict]

Totally appreciate your post. Isles need skill and talent and LW is certainly a need. Curious if you would prefer Ehlers or Debrusk on that top line. Other posters may have better fits for that spot.

I'd prefer Debrusk. Better in his own end. Ehlers is weak in his own end and that is certainly a problem we (islanders) had last year.

Legit curious how Rosner would know this for certain, much less report it, since basically every single trade Lou has done wasn't reported on even as the faintest of rumors before it was completed.

Just being around the Isles doesn't mean you know anything about Lou's inner workings.

Totally agree with this post. And... Chevy in Winnipeg is almost as close-mouthed as LL.

 

[NYI365]

Legit curious how Rosner would know this for certain, much less report it, since basically every single trade Lou has done wasn't reported on even as the faintest of rumors before it was completed.

Just being around the Isles doesn't mean you know anything about Lou's inner workings.

I'm not defending his credibility but often times if there are leaks/rumors involving Lou teams it comes from a connection on the other end. Could have a source within WPG who's heard something outside of Lou's Come of Silence. Just spit balling.

 

[tbcwpg]

I'm not defending his credibility but often times if there are leaks/rumors involving Lou teams it comes from a connection on the other end. Could have a source within WPG who's heard something outside of Lou's Come of Silence. Just spit balling.

Agents leak things all the time.

 

[Osakahaus]

That ICB post prompted me to look at BUF more closely and they're an interesting possibility for a deal. Their weakness is our strength and vice-versa. They have too many kids in the 18-24 range and need more vets. And they could really use a defensive 3C. There are rumors that Power could be moved, but many of their fans seem to think that's nuts. I tend to agree, but even lesser kids like Krebs or Jokiharju might be good fits for the Isles. Cizikas and Pelech are both from nearby TOR, and JGP is from OTT, FWIW. Maybe Pelech would waive for BUF?

I think that the islanders could do a decent barter trade with Buffalo to grab some youth. i'd be down for it at the right offer, especially if they can revitalize Krebs.

 

[Osakahaus]

while im on the topic of Ehlers and Rosner, he also brought up Morgan Frost as a buy low name. I would personally like him but I dunno if the Flyers will ask too much. They are slammed up against the cap and I dunno if they want to have him around in their future. So if he's out there after a possible Cizikas trade, would you want him on board?

 

[BrockLobster]

That ICB post prompted me to look at BUF more closely and they're an interesting possibility for a deal. Their weakness is our strength and vice-versa. They have too many kids in the 18-24 range and need more vets. And they could really use a defensive 3C. There are rumors that Power could be moved, but many of their fans seem to think that's nuts. I tend to agree, but even lesser kids like Krebs or Jokiharju might be good fits for the Isles. Cizikas and Pelech are both from nearby TOR, and JGP is from OTT, FWIW. Maybe Pelech would waive for BUF?

Whats the ICB post? I looked but cant find it.

 

[Osakahaus]

Whats the ICB post? I looked but cant find it.

he said be on the lookout for Buffalo this offseason

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

I'm not defending his credibility but often times if there are leaks/rumors involving Lou teams it comes from a connection on the other end. Could have a source within WPG who's heard something outside of Lou's Come of Silence. Just spit balling.

If you have LDS, no other possibilities exist.

 

[Osakahaus]

I'd prefer Debrusk. Better in his own end. Ehlers is weak in his own end and that is certainly a problem we (islanders) had last year.


Totally agree with this post. And... Chevy in Winnipeg is almost as close-mouthed as LL.

Personally I think that DeBrusk is gonna commend way too much money. If there's any guy like him i'd like, its Martinook. Dude is the biggest assh*le against the Islanders and every other team, and he's such a gritty player that we are missing.

 

[Big L]

he said be on the lookout for Buffalo this offseason

Wow. Real specific. Got better than a 1 in 32 chance of being right. SMH

 

[PK Cronin]

Wow. Real specific. Got better than a 1 in 32 chance of being right. SMH

I can't believe anyone actually takes that account seriously. It's the king of vague posting and deletes wrong takes.

 

[doublechili]

I can't believe anyone actually takes that account seriously. It's the king of vague posting and deletes wrong takes.

I don't think any of those guys are connected - I never check ICB (other than what people post here), but I do go to Hockeybuzz sometimes because you can get actual info from some of the writers there. It's not about legit rumors, but more about who may be available on other teams and what they might be looking for. Sort of like the info we get here.

 

[periferal]

I can't believe anyone actually takes that account seriously. It's the king of vague posting and deletes wrong takes.

Eklund is so much worse and insane the press that guy gets.

 

[LeapOnOver]

We're all 50/50 for opening night.

Right? 50/50 is what people say when they think they will be right either way, lol.

 

[PK Cronin]

Eklund is so much worse and insane the press that guy gets.

They're both dog shit.

 

[SI]

With regard to an Ehlers trade - a player with salary would have to move out and since that is difficult to pinpoint WHO that could be? LL regards JGP, Lee, and others with high esteem - it could mean instead of using the extra 2nd rounder (they received in the Hawks trade) to one of those contracts, he could instead use the extra 2nd rounder to have a team like San Jose eat 50% of Ehler's cap hit.

 

[SI]

Taking a deeper dive into the roster and what some possible moves to upgrade to F group -
This 20-man roster has about 4.7 m in cap space. Below is a breakdown of what they could do IF Lou Does NOT REMOVE ANY CURRENT NHL player from the roster.

Wahlstrom will either not be qualified or traded for a similar player, Ville Heinola comes to mind - who would only cost .875K for his QO - a similar hit to Wahlstrom. Gauthier will be buried.

Holmstrom and Maclean are both RFA's with no arbitration rights, which means all LL needs to do is Qualify them, so you can pen them down for a 1 year @ .875K for Holmstrom and 1 year @ .813 K Maclean (check CapFriendly - Qualifying offer in the calculator tab).

I am looking at building a 22-man roster -NOT a 23 -to maximize the 88m cap.

Forwards

• LW - ????, C - Horvat 8.5, RW - Barzal 9.15
• LW - Holmstrom .875, C - Nelson 6, RW - Palmieri 5
• LW - Lee 7, C - JGP 5, RW - Engvall 3
• LW - Maclean .813, C - Cizikas 2.5, RW - Tsyplakov .95
• F - Fasching .775

Defense

• D - Romanov 2.5 and Dobson 4
• D - Pelech 5.75 and Pulock 6.15
• D - Bolduc .8 and Mayfield 3.5
• D - ?????
• G - Sorokin 8.25
• G - Varlamov 2.75

Option #1 - TRADING 1st rounder at the DRAFT for an RFA - the Romanov deal
7 RFA players come to mind -
Shane Pinto (unlikely), Cole Perfetti (he's being dangled), Morgan Frost, Peyton Krebs (would not want to give up a 1st for him), Cole Sillinger, Kent Johnson (unlikely), and Kiril Marchenko

The contract for these 4 players would be about 2.35 to 3.25 for 2 seasons before a bigger deal, leaving enough $ to spend on a decent option on the blueline.

Option #2 - Trading 1st rounder at the Draft for established NHL player/top 6 or Top 6 potential -

• LL trades the 1st fin 2024 for Ehlers and another 2nd to a team like SJ to park some of the cap hit
• LL trades the 1st in 2024 for Yegor Sharangovich (3.1 AAV) or Frank Vatrano(3.6 AAV) for next season. Use the rest of the cap hit to sign a PMD man, Mike Reilly or potentially Jake Bean, who will most likely not be Qualified.
• LL trades the 1st in 2024 for Alex Newhook

Option #3 - TRADE the 1st for Chychrun

• LL trades the 1st in 2024 (+prospect) for Jakob Chychrun (4.6 AAV). Isles can fit the entire cap hit and then roll with a 21-man roster OR trade a pick to another team to take on 1m of the cap hit, so they could add another F - probably bargain hunt - Anthony Beauvillier, Dominik Kubalik, Alexander Barabanov, Ilya Mihkeyev -once he is bought out.

Option #4 - BARGAIN HUNT during free agency- Split the 4.7m amongst 3 UFAs

• LL signs - Jake Bean, LHD, Arvidsson, RW or Duclair, F

MY NEXT POST will be moving a player out to improve the roster

 

[MikeyMike01]

Eklund is so much worse and insane the press that guy gets.

He was way ahead of the curve on engagement baiting.

 

[seafoam]

DeBrusk would not require any assets while Ehlers would. Ehlers is probably looking for close to 8M per on an extension (currently makes 6M per) while Debrusk probably lands closer to 6.5M per (currently makes 4M per).

Age difference is a wash.

 

[WangMustGo]

DeBrusk would not require any assets while Ehlers would. Ehlers is probably looking for close to 8M per on an extension (currently makes 6M per) while Debrusk probably lands closer to 6.5M per (currently makes 4M per).

Age difference is a wash.

6.5 for a guy with a career high of 50 points? On a stacked team like the Bruins. No thanks. He is grossly overrated and too streaky.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

DeBrusk would not require any assets while Ehlers would. Ehlers is probably looking for close to 8M per on an extension (currently makes 6M per) while Debrusk probably lands closer to 6.5M per (currently makes 4M per).

Age difference is a wash.

Might be a bidding war on DeBrusk that gets his number closer to 7+, especially with his age and the lack of forward talent in FA.

I will make a bet he gets 5/35, 6/45 or 7/50 from someone, and I am personally not paying that for someone who has hit the 50 point season plateau once in seven seasons. Ehlers, btw has done it 5 times, clearing 60 in three of those....

Per82:

DeBrusk (7 seasons): 24-23-47

Ehlers (9 seasons): 27-35-62

That is a 15 point difference...

By Comparison (career numbers):

Horvat (10 seasons): 27-29-56

Nelson (11 seasons): 27-25-52

Lee (10 seasons*): 28-21-49

I would give Ehlers 7.5x7 and perhaps 8x7 as well as give up my 1st rounder rather than sign DeBrusk at that number.... Because I think he still has some upside though, I would probably go 5/30, maybe 5/33 for him, but no higher. I dont think that comes close to getting him inked though

 

[seafoam]

6.5 for a guy with a career high of 50 points? On a stacked team like the Bruins. No thanks. He is grossly overrated and too streaky.

DeBrusk is a more attractive asset from the playoff perspective in my opinion.