Roster Building Thread VI (2022-23): Offseason edition

[I Eat Crow]

Look at Philly, the Caps, Isles, Colombus, Pittsburgh.
You really think the loss of Panarin is that big of a deal.

Jersey is going to run this division the next two years. It'll take at least that long for Philly and Columbus to catch up. Washington, Pittsburgh, and the Isles will be in the dreaded middle until they decide to bite the bullet, which is fine by me.

Drury should be fired on the spot if he can't bring this team to at least a 3rd place finish in the Metro in either of the next two seasons.

 

[Zarao71]

Jersey is going to run this division the next two years. It'll take at least that long for Philly and Columbus to catch up. Washington, Pittsburgh, and the Isles will be in the dreaded middle until they decide to bite the bullet, which is fine by me.

Drury should be fired on the spot if he can't bring this team to at least a 3rd place finish in the Metro in either of the next two seasons.

Management isn't gonna go full rebuild if we look like we can compete. NJ isn't a lock to win anything.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Management isn't gonna go full rebuild if we look like we can compete. NJ isn't a lock to win anything.

Not at all. NJ has their warts but they'll score 325 goals a year and get to 110 points because they'll win a lot of 5-3, 5-4, 6-5 games.

Two years is the window. Laviolette ain't a spring chicken. He's probably going to retire after the Rangers gig. Both he and Drury are gone barring at least a Cup finals appearance the next two years. Once the balance of power shifts in the division in 2 or 3 years and the big Panarin, Trouba, and Igor contracts are off the books, that's when you rip it to the studs and start over.

 

[Zarao71]

Not at all. NJ has their warts but they'll score 325 goals a year and get to 110 points because they'll win a lot of 5-3, 5-4, 6-5 games.

Two years is the window. Laviolette ain't a spring chicken. He's probably going to retire after the Rangers gig. Both he and Drury are gone barring at least a Cup finals appearance the next two years. Once the balance of power shifts in the division in 2 or 3 years and the big Panarin, Trouba, and Igor contracts are off the books, that's when you rip it to the studs and start over.

Do you really think the Rangers are gonna just let Panarin, Trouba and (Igor?What?) contracts come off the books? No offense but really? Certainly that money will be allocated to the next Panarin, Trouba and ?. We've done 1 fake rebuild in my 52 years on this planet.

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

The salary cap NHL is a lot like the NFL. You can rebuild or retool in 2-3 years if you have a steady amount of prospects and your bargain bin hunting is good.

So even if the Rangers don't win in the next two years, if they get lucky and have 1-2 of the mid round prospects or UFAs (I'm not saying Pawar is Tim Kerr 2.0 but let's see how he does in Hartford this year) who can exceed expectations to go along with their young core, they should be ok.

Remember when Mike Green and the first batch of Capitals youngsters left in the mid-2010s and everyone thought they were cooked?

This was part of the reason for a cap. It's a checks and balances to make sure teams stay young/prevent the same seven players from signing all the big name UFAs like in the pre-lockout (Dallas, Detroit, Colorado, Philadelphia, Toronto, Rangers, Montreal). For those who watched in the 80s-90s, teams generally had the same players for 4-5 years and a rebuild was slow (not including Esposito's teams of course).

I remember in the summer of 2005 when the Rangers didn't sign Petr Forsberg and Nikolai Khabeboulin and some friends who were much more casual were like "whatever" when we'd mention Henrik Lundqvist. See how that turned out.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Do you really think the Rangers are gonna just let Panarin, Trouba and (Igor?What?) contracts come off the books? No offense but really? Certainly that money will be allocated to the next Panarin, Trouba and ?. We've done 1 fake rebuild in my 52 years on this planet.

Certainly not.

They'll trade or extend Igor by the trade deadline in 2025.

Trouba waives his NTC or gets bought out in two years.

Panarin gets dealt with a year left on his deal with rentention for a modest haul.

Kreider may even leave too depending on how dire it actually gets.

Lafreniere and Kakko are either part of the solution moving forward or they're gone this time two years from now.

Trochek I don't think plays out his entire contract here. The Rangers will be nice and trade him home to Pittsburgh.

If this core shits the bed as badly as they did this year the next two, they deserve a total undressing and tear down.

The team as of now is going to look profoundly different in the next 2 or 3 years.

 

[mas0764]

Can Trocheck not take the matchup center role?

 

[mas0764]

Not at all. NJ has their warts but they'll score 325 goals a year and get to 110 points because they'll win a lot of 5-3, 5-4, 6-5 games.

Two years is the window. Laviolette ain't a spring chicken. He's probably going to retire after the Rangers gig. Both he and Drury are gone barring at least a Cup finals appearance the next two years. Once the balance of power shifts in the division in 2 or 3 years and the big Panarin, Trouba, and Igor contracts are off the books, that's when you rip it to the studs and start over.

I can’t believe we have to talk about ripping it down to the studs again already. What a waste the last rebuild was. Supposed to be a ten year favorite being built.

We are two years into a three or four year window and it’s obvious where it’s headed. We aren’t even better than New Jersey. They’ve pantsed us in terms of constructing a long term winner and it’s blatantly clear they’ve already passed us.

We need a lucky run or we end up with nothing again.

 

[Barnaby]

It’s funny how different people can look at the same situation and walk away from it with two polar opposite interpretations. Vasi is my go to example for exactly how NOT to manage your goaltending situation.

Yes, the Bolts won their second Cup while Vasi was on his big contract. But the team was widely criticized for completely circumventing the cap that season, and they’ve been struggling to field a competitive team while bleeding assets to fill holes ever since.

I do think the calculus is a bit harder after winning a Cup. Like, if the Rangers manage to win while Igor is on his current contract, you almost have to just pay him in reward. But if they can’t get it done while he’s still a bargain, how are they going to get it done when he’s occupying twice the cap space?

They won a cup with him on his big deal.

Can’t you make the same argument about any player? The Rangers couldn’t win a cup with Fox on an ELC and Zib making $5 million per.

Cap space is huge, but who are the young stars we missed out on during this free agency. Klingberg and Compher? Just having cap space doesn’t mean other teams stars just show up at your door every year.

 

[Synergy27]

Without Panarin, they're not a playoff team.

If what you mentioned ends up being the direction they go in, they're rebuilding.

What do you base this on? Who are you assuming gets brought in to occupy all that cap space?

 

[Barnaby]

thats bullshit.

We're captive to Panarin and Zibs.

If they do not earn their paycheck in the Playoffs, we lose. Or does he mean Kakko and Laffy need to outproduce them? or pick up their slack? which either way, is silly.

He’s on point IMO. We have the goalie. We have a solid young defense core. It could use a tweak or two. We know what our contracted vet forwards are going to give us most nights. The NYR bet a lot on Laf and KK becoming impact players to fill out the line up at a reasonable rate. Two top two picks who need to step up.

So now the plan is to stuff Laf and Kakko on the top line, gift them PP1 time, then blame the stars losing out to them for the teams lack of production? That’s exactly how it’d probably play out too.

 

[Barnaby]

I always defined it as "Important players likely to still be here in 5 years"

Like a 'core' it's something you build around. All our older discussions of who would end up 'core' players meaning who is gonna be re-signed and kept at all cost and who is likely to be shuffled out for cap reasons like Hagelin.

Similar to how Chicago kept it's 'core' of Kane, Toews, Keith through their cup wins but had an entourage of others around them. Crosby, Malkin, Letang in Pitt

So in this context I consider our core to be Zibanejad, Fox, and Miller.

So Miller is a core piece and Panarin / Shesterkin aren’t? Idk, I might go back to the drawing board on that one…

 

[bhamill]

I don’t get why people keep trying to peddle this narrative. Brooks did it. Friedman did it. I’m sure signing the following had nothing to do with it:

Blake Wheeler (36 years old)
Jonathan Quick (37 years old)
Nick Bonino (35 years old)
Tyler Pitlick (31 years old)
Erik Gustaffson (31 years old)
Riley Nash (34 years old)

It’s just lazy

Exactly.

 

[bhamill]

Without Panarin, they're not a playoff team.

Well is that a fine kettle of fish. Panarin gets this team into the playoffs. Panarin then disappears and now we are a team that shouldn’t have made the playoffs and can’t win. But we get a playoff team draft position so it’s harder to improve to a team that could make the playoffs (and possibly win) without him... Makes it sound like the worst thing we could have done was sign Panarin… if winning a cup is our priority.

So Miller is a core piece and Panarin / Shesterkin aren’t? Idk, I might go back to the drawing board on that one…

I’m not sure why a core is limited to three players. There are a lot of “core rules” I’m apparently not aware of. Hahaha.

 

[Barnaby]

I can’t believe we have to talk about ripping it down to the studs again already. What a waste the last rebuild was. Supposed to be a ten year favorite being built.

We are two years into a three or four year window and it’s obvious where it’s headed. We aren’t even better than New Jersey. They’ve pantsed us in terms of constructing a long term winner and it’s blatantly clear they’ve already passed us.

We need a lucky run or we end up with nothing again.

That’s what happens when you miss on multiple premium picks. I’m not sure yet if Drury’s returns would be any better, but I’m optimistic. He seems more focused on character and at least with Othmann and Sykora, grit.

 

[NickyFotiu]

What a difference a year makes. Last offseason some people on here were over confident based on that years playoffs. I tried to warn them that once the puck is dropped last season means nothing. Many things change for many teams every season. Its like the year we won the cup followed a season we didn't even make the playoffs. The season before that we had the best record in the NHL but lost early in the playoffs.

 

[bleedblue94]

I thought it was better than calling him a prick. Which he actually isn't...I usually like reading his posts.

Wasn't directed at you specifically. It's just all over the place now. I just think it's funny.

 

[Tob]

You rebuild when you have anchor contracts that will ass ram your team for 3-4 years like we did with Girardi, Staal, Lundqvist $20M for replacement level players during those 3-4 years. Plus no good young prospects and only decent forwards that are going to need raises on contracts that will be on the bad value end by the time the $20M dead weight comes off and thereby becoming a new $20M of dead weight again (Hayes, Pionk, Zucc, McDonagh in 2022-2025). We already got lucky and dumped Stepan in 2017 off season otherwise Stepan would be another $6M in dead weight.

You only rebuild when there's tremendous dead weight everywhere and committing to the 2017 core at the time would spell disaster for nearly a decade.

As long as there aren't multiple replacement level dead weights amounting to $20M-$25M, there is no need to rebuild at all.

Kreider Trouba Panarin will all age well until the final year of their deals expire and the cap is going up next year. We're not staring at Staal,G,Hank, step $26M for 4 broken down oil rigs with no mobility left for 3-4 more years damning the team.

Plus we actually still have picks and prospects and shit. This 30+ core comes off, we hope zib plays well into his latter half contract or retires to DJ, and we just bring in new players through trades and FA, this time around hopefully Drury has a better eye for evaluation than sather did and will find PO type players and lots of bargains.

This isn't solitaire. You don't start a new game if the starting board doesn't look good. That's the thing about this NY team. They can always just sign more players and never draft enough or draft well and can't win a cup without an elite homegrown top end player pool but that's just what we have to deal with.

 

[LOFIN]

Everyone looks at the Devils as a model (not disagreeing) but their stars absolutely performed a scat show in the playoffs. I think I outscored Bratt and Meier. Hischier was mid as f***. Hughes went cold against Carolina.

It's a dice roll whether your guys are hot in the playoffs.

Vegas' core was a loser until it suddenly wasn't. Colorado's core was a loser until it suddenly wasn't. Tampa's core was a loser (f***ing forever) until it suddenly wasn't.

I have to disagree with this one, at least regarding Colorado and Edmonton. When they have failed previously, it has been because of goaltending, lack of depth, injuries etc. The core players have always performed very well. Draisaitl and McDavid are #3 and #4 on all time points per games in the playoffs. MacKinnon and Rantanen are #6 and #9. Panarin has 18 points in his last 27 playoff games. That would put him somewhere #200 range all time. Mika and Kreider played roughly PPG the last two playoffs.

So sure, we need our kids and depth to step up, every SC winning team has a story like this. There might be a game where the star players are shut down and go pointless, it happens. That's when you need your depth to step up, and this is where we look at the kids. But also don't have the best player, who's paid like one of the best players in the league, go completely MIA two springs in a row. If Panarin won't step up, we're f***ed always.

 

[UnSandvich]

People are saying without Panarin we don't make the playoffs, and that's all fine and dandy. But if we suddenly have an 11.5 million dollar hole in the lineup when the playoffs start, does that really even matter?

Over the last 2 playoff runs, he's T-7th in points, 13th (11th among F's) in 5v5 points per 60, and 17th in xGF%. If he can't or won't perform in the playoffs, he is a liability and nothing more.

 

[bhamill]

Wasn't directed at you specifically. It's just all over the place now. I just think it's funny.

Yeah I’ve noticed certain words and phrases “trend” HARD. I’m just happy if they get used correctly. Hahaha.

 

[I Eat Crow]

You rebuild when you have anchor contracts that will ass ram your team for 3-4 years like we did with Girardi, Staal, Lundqvist $20M for replacement level players during those 3-4 years. Plus no good young prospects and only decent forwards that are going to need raises on contracts that will be on the bad value end by the time the $20M dead weight comes off and thereby becoming a new $20M of dead weight again (Hayes, Pionk, Zucc, McDonagh in 2022-2025). We already got lucky and dumped Stepan in 2017 off season otherwise Stepan would be another $6M in dead weight.

You only rebuild when there's tremendous dead weight everywhere and committing to the 2017 core at the time would spell disaster for nearly a decade.

As long as there aren't multiple replacement level dead weights amounting to $20M-$25M, there is no need to rebuild at all.

Kreider Trouba Panarin will all age well until the final year of their deals expire and the cap is going up next year. We're not staring at Staal,G,Hank, step $26M for 4 broken down oil rigs with no mobility left for 3-4 more years damning the team.

Plus we actually still have picks and prospects and shit. This 30+ core comes off, we hope zib plays well into his latter half contract or retires to DJ, and we just bring in new players through trades and FA, this time around hopefully Drury has a better eye for evaluation than sather did and will find PO type players and lots of bargains.

This isn't solitaire. You don't start a new game if the starting board doesn't look good. That's the thing about this NY team. They can always just sign more players and never draft enough or draft well and can't win a cup without an elite homegrown top end player pool but that's just what we have to deal with.

I heat what you're saying, but I do think it's a large presumption to say that Trouba, Panarin, Kreider, et al, won't decline in the next two years. Panarin has already started to decline, IMO. It remains to be seen if he falls off a cliff or the decline plateaus a bit with a new coach, we'll see.

Trouba has the potential to be a boat anchor in two years' time. Currently overpaid but plenty of margin for error to decline further. Kreider is the only one of the list that could potentially decline and still be worth his contract. He's a Ranger until he doesn't want to be.

The second part also presumes that the Rangers will get useful NHL players out of Othmann, Sykora, Berard, Perreault, etc. It's more likely than not but it's not forgone.

Perhaps aggressive retool is the better description for what can go down in the next 2 or 3 years.

 

[bernmeister]

Berne I always respected your opinion, but do not agree with your proposal from Kings point of view.

Kings did not trade Byfield for PLD, they traded Vilardi instead.

LA considers Clarke to be untouchable in trades. He is the only possible 1D on the team.

Shesty is great goalie, but Kings will not trade those assets for him.

P.S. ZJ is not needed in LA.

@kinghock I enjoy your posts too.
There is no prob, and it indeed should be encouraged, that anyone with a dif of op should always feel welcomed to speak out; that is how we all benefit from a competition of ideas.
Of course, each of us on whatev dif points of view there are then need to defend them, with substance, against charges -- which have been invited, but which also should have substantiation.

It is a fair ? as to whether or not Shesty to LA, which would be expensive, is worthwhile. The premise there is Talbot is still a quality G, and can get hot. But even allowing that, he obv is not gonna flat out STEAL games for you. If all the skaters have an off nite and the likes of McD + Drai constantly pummel your netminder, CONSTANTLY, both Talbot and Shesty may hold up, but we can reasonably project Shesty to hold up longer. And that is a valid pt.

Now, you may say I don't care, what bern is saying there is a real and legit risk, but I am willing to gamble my team will not only compete but win the event with a better, more successful effort. And you may be right. Or wrong. Whether or not, and to what extent, McDavid and/or Draisatil can almost will a couple of tallies in a playoff game where a single goal may be critical is not certain either way.
But it is fair to ask if King fans want to go all in and reduce that risk.
It is also fair to say that, bigger picture, it is too much cost.

In a similar but different prop made July 4 which was more generous to LA, which had some core, but with Rs retaining, @kilowatt said:
"Byfield and Clarke for Shesterkin with retention? Okay. Sold."

So again, not to misrepresent these are 2 dif props and @kilowatt liking that one does not mean he does/does not think this one is too much, it still confirms that there is some interest in upgrading further, including in net, possibly including paying a dramatic price for a dramatic add.

There is no monolith and solitary consensus.

And in conclusion, not looking to shove Shesty down anyone's throat.
Want to sell high for foundation level youth to correct mistakes by recent/current R mgmt.

LA is a fit but others also fit, so .... competition of ideas.

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the Kings would not give up tjat much for a goalie they know is not needed to win a Cup.

Disagree, but I concede your point it MAY be the case.
Matter of op.
Clearly, such a deal helps them signif.
Still no guarantee, but it is significant.
They COULD win w'o him, MAYBE, but they could also lose.

IMO ony ? is what is the top dollar price Shesty fetches in such currency [otherwise don't trade him], and which team offers the best bid?

 

[Synergy27]

They won a cup with him on his big deal.

Can’t you make the same argument about any player? The Rangers couldn’t win a cup with Fox on an ELC and Zib making $5 million per.

Cap space is huge, but who are the young stars we missed out on during this free agency. Klingberg and Compher? Just having cap space doesn’t mean other teams stars just show up at your door every year.

No. Very specifically no. The whole point is that elite goalies are not that much better than mid tier guys. This isn’t true for Centers and D.

That said, I also think it’s a bad idea to have so much cap wrapped up in the wing position.

 

[Profet]

I heat what you're saying, but I do think it's a large presumption to say that Trouba, Panarin, Kreider, et al, won't decline in the next two years. Panarin has already started to decline, IMO. It remains to be seen if he falls off a cliff or the decline plateaus a bit with a new coach, we'll see.

Trouba has the potential to be a boat anchor in two years' time. Currently overpaid but plenty of margin for error to decline further. Kreider is the only one of the list that could potentially decline and still be worth his contract. He's a Ranger until he doesn't want to be.

The second part also presumes that the Rangers will get useful NHL players out of Othmann, Sykora, Berard, Perreault, etc. It's more likely than not but it's not forgone.

Perhaps aggressive retool is the better description for what can go down in the next 2 or 3 years.

This team isn't doing crap unless it can figure out how to draft in the top 10.

Every team seems to have one or two core guys that were drafted high and produce as such.

Except the Rangers.

I was so excited with so many top draft picks, figuring at least 1 of:

2017 #7
2018 #9
2019 #2
2020 #1

Would be a franchise player.

Sigh...