Roster Building thread - Part X - (TDL edition)

[bhamill]

The trouble with that is every player who is ostensibly wearing the opponent with these kinds of hits is getting caved, a la Tanner Glass.

They can't be wearing them out that much.

I think that’s a pretty broad brush. Plenty of players finish their checks without getting “caved.” Although that’s a fairly imprecise term, “caved”, so I can’t be sure what exactly you are saying. I’m not defending Glass here I’m saying a Will Cuylle, for instance, does a good job finishing his checks and wearing on the opposition. Rarely takes himself out of position and can almost always get back into the play before his check-ee. But sometimes even a check that does take you out of position can be a net positive depending on the target and situation. Again specially if the person you are hitting takes longer to recover and get back to the play than you do. I mean don’t most coaches implore their players to finish their checks?

 

[eco's bones]

I like Wennberg more than Roslovic just because his play away from the puck is a lot better. He can skate the puck up the ice and moves it about better. Neither one of them are very physical. Wennberg doesn't shoot the puck much.....he came as advertised there and he's not that hot on face-offs.....speaking of which Trocheck the last bunch of games hasn't been either. It's almost like we reverted to last years Rangers on face-offs in the past month. I think the jury will be out on both Wennberg and Roslovic until we see how well they and the team do in the playoffs. We didn't give up a lot for Roslovic so there's that but he's not the greatest top 6 option while Wennberg seems kind of pretty well slotted on the third line. Another thing on Wennberg when he came in he was also kind of advertised as a penalty kill option and Laviolette hasn't really used him much on that.

 

[haohmaru]

Highly recommend giving this week’s New Ice City podcast a listen with Vally and his CSA stats - especially for you analytics people.

 

[McRanger92]

Humorous that people are getting on Wennberg. This guy is one of the better support players we've had in years. I dont care if he isnt personally producing, it's not why they traded for him. It's no coincidence that the Rangers have found not only a complete, but very effective bottom 6 since hes been slotted in. Kakko and Cuylle have been better with him, as have guys like Brodzinski and Goodrow on their line, who are now playing roles they were meant to play. Id be all over signing this guy in the offseason as long as the price doesnt get out of control.

 

[HolyHagelin]

So I am looking at the 5v5 data right now. I created a new stat: CF/G.

As expected, the Hurricanes are a massive positive outlier at 57.37. The Ducks are a massive negative outlier at 40.82.

Then you have 18 teams in the 48-52 range and the remaining 13 teams are between 42-48.

I really don’t think the differences in that 18 team grouping mean anything. I certainly wouldn’t be placing any real money bets using that stat as a key component of my analysis.

So if i understand what you are saying, you divided corsi events by goals? So wouldnt lower be better? Could you elaborate on what these numbers mean?

 

[Machinehead]

I think that’s a pretty broad brush. Plenty of players finish their checks without getting “caved.” Although that’s a fairly imprecise term, “caved”, so I can’t be sure what exactly you are saying. I’m not defending Glass here I’m saying a Will Cuylle, for instance, does a good job finishing his checks and wearing on the opposition. Rarely takes himself out of position and can almost always get back into the play before his check-ee. But sometimes even a check that does take you out of position can be a net positive depending on the target and situation. Again specially if the person you are hitting takes longer to recover and get back to the play than you do. I mean don’t most coaches implore their players to finish their checks?

Nobody is saying Cuylle wears the opposition out, they just say he's good.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Nobody is saying Cuylle wears the opposition out, they just say he's good.

That’s a function of when he makes his hit.
Cuylle hits hard, and usually before the puck is fully released. That can cause a player to rush their pass, make a bad play.

 

[bhamill]

Nobody is saying Cuylle wears the opposition out, they just say he's good.

I’m saying that a TEAM finishing its checks wears an opponent out, especially in a series. That requires the players actually doing it. And SOME players do it more and better than others. For instance Cuylle. He is a league leader in hits. And he’s effective. I’m not sure how this is arguable, but whatever. You’re entitled to your view.

 

[Machinehead]

I’m saying that a TEAM finishing its checks wears an opponent out, especially in a series. That requires the players actually doing it. And SOME players do it more and better than others. For instance Cuylle. He is a league leader in hits. And he’s effective. I’m not sure how this is arguable, but whatever. You’re entitled to your view.

Nobody is saying the team shouldn't finish their checks.

We're talking about the alleged effects of notorious late hitters.

I don't think we have any, unless you count Trouba trying to lay guys out when they're already on a 3-on-2 and missing.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Nobody is saying the team shouldn't finish their checks.

We're talking about the alleged effects of notorious late hitters.

I don't think we have any, unless you count Trouba trying to lay guys out when they're already on a 3-on-2 and missing.

Yeah even Goodrow is pretty good at his hits now. He seems to have a lot more pep to his game and his forechecking has been fantastic.

 

[bhamill]

Nobody is saying the team shouldn't finish their checks.

We're talking about the alleged effects of notorious late hitters.

I don't think we have any, unless you count Trouba trying to lay guys out when they're already on a 3-on-2 and missing.

I agree. That’s not what I was talking about. In fact I said in my original post about the 3 second late hits “not so much.” I was just saying that even hits that aren’t separating a player from the puck because the player has already dished it, finishing checks, is effective. (Because someone had said that hits after the puck is gone are worthless.)

 

[haohmaru]

That’s a function of when he makes his hit.
Cuylle hits hard, and usually before the puck is fully released. That can cause a player to rush their pass, make a bad play.

But but but all of the wizards in here say hits don’t matter and mean you don’t have the puck.

 

[IDvsEGO]

But but but all of the wizards in here say hits don’t matter and mean you don’t have the puck.

I think advanced metrics are important, but it’s also impossible to have the puck 100% of the time. Being able to force bad plays is important.
Hits matter, bad hits matter (usually negatively), good hits matter (usually positively)
It’s really tough to tell a good hit from a bad one without a lot better motion tracking and following the play 3-4 seconds later, so most metrics ignore them because that makes sense.

 

[NYR94]

 

[McRanger92]

*eyes emoji*

 

[Fitzy]

I don't possess any powers of foresight buy did think it a little premature when half the board declared his career over.

 

[Synergy27]

So if i understand what you are saying, you divided corsi events by goals? So wouldnt lower be better? Could you elaborate on what these numbers mean?

Sorry. Corsi events by Games Played. I think this is a little more accurate that Corsi events per 60 because you never play 60 minutes of 5v5 in any game.

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

I don't possess any powers of foresight buy did think it a little premature when half the board declared his career over.

Not sure what the precedent will tell you, but players missing an entire season due to a concussion on a hit that looked like nothing I'm sure is a pretty damn bad sign.

Sorry. Corsi events by Games Played. I think this is a little more accurate that Corsi events per 60 because you never play 60 minutes of 5v5 in any game.

Isn't down to the minute grain fundamentally more accurate and precise than games?

 

[haohmaru]

Vegas tactics, baby!

 

[eco's bones]

Humorous that people are getting on Wennberg. This guy is one of the better support players we've had in years. I dont care if he isnt personally producing, it's not why they traded for him. It's no coincidence that the Rangers have found not only a complete, but very effective bottom 6 since hes been slotted in. Kakko and Cuylle have been better with him, as have guys like Brodzinski and Goodrow on their line, who are now playing roles they were meant to play. Id be all over signing this guy in the offseason as long as the price doesnt get out of control.

What I see out of Wennberg is very good responsible play away from the puck and an ability to skate the puck up ice and good passing skills. He does pass up shots to make plays. That was one of the main complaints about him but players like that are not hard to find from former alumni and even maybe a couple other current Rangers. His face-off %'s somewhere around 45 throughout his career. It's not terrible but it's not really good either. He's been a regular penalty killer for his previous teams but why Laviolette hasn't used him for that much is a mystery to me.

Would I sign him again? That depends. I'd like to see him in the playoffs first. Also we have RFA decisions to be made on Lindgren, Schneider and Kakko. With a projected $12.5 mil to work with that should cover those three if we keep them all with some left over. My guess is that both Rempe and Edstrom will be serious contenders for jobs next year as well.....so how the Rangers look at in house solutions might factor in too and lastly how much Wennberg wants. He's on a $4.5 mil per contract that the Rangers are on the hook for half of post-trade. From what I've seen $4.5 is too much. He'd fit as a 3rd liner for us. I like him enough so far but I'd be more in the $3.5 and maybe 3 years range.

 

[Synergy27]

Not sure what the precedent will tell you, but players missing an entire season due to a concussion on a hit that looked like nothing I'm sure is a pretty damn bad sign.


Isn't down to the minute grain fundamentally more accurate and precise than games?

It probably doesn’t make that much of a difference when comparing honestly, but I was trying to get a better feel for how many events happen in a game to see how sensitive these stats are to relatively small changes because my overarching idea is that there isn’t much difference amongst the vast middle of the league.

If I want to know how many high danger chances Carolina is going to generate in a game, per 60 doesn’t really tell me that. That’s more like 1.4 games worth of 5v5 time.

I think per/60 stats are better for individual players but per game stats provide more context at the team level to me. It’s interesting to think about what a player might be able to do with more ice time. A team is always going to have 48 minutes or less 5v5 time. That doesn’t change much.

 

[Savant]

This is when you start gathering intel on a Shea Theodore offer



Vegas can’t pay everyone.

 

[HonestGabe]

This is when you start gathering intel on a Shea Theodore offer



Vegas can’t pay everyone.

They prove this wrong every year when Mark Stone gets an injury the week before the trade deadline and returns for Game 1 in round 1.

 

[Savant]

They prove this wrong every year when Mark Stone gets an injury the week before the trade deadline and returns for Game 1 in round 1.

Yeah but that doesn’t help them when they need to hand another extension out. Just need to figure out a way to get it done

 

[haohmaru]

Honestly, the rules need to change to where anyone can play in the playoffs (ie... returning injured player) but the team fielded cannot exceed the cap. The rules, as written, are too easy to circumvent.