Roster Building thread - Part X - (TDL edition)

[Pawnee Rangers]

Nothing new about broad deficiencies at even strength.

But what this article attempted to capture without saying the word explicitly is the team’s resiliency and being a tough opponent in general. Having one of the best records after scoring first goal, the best record after allowing a first goal, closing the game when entering the third period with the lead, comeback wins etc - all points out to team’s intangibles that allow them to overcome 5x5 deficiencies.

The biggest thing I got from this article is that they can win a game a bunch of different ways, which I think is huge come playoff time.

 

[Machinehead]

I’m not as concerned about Carolina, rangers just seem to find a way against them lol. But that article was mostly reasonable I think. They identified most of the same problems the Rangers have as a lot of us here have. Just gotta hope special teams are good, goaltending is good and maybe they play even at 5v5.

Just looking at the teams on paper, and having not seen the matchup over the last couple of years, it makes sense as to why Carolina would look like trouble for us. We seem to have some real bogey matchups that cave our underlying numbers, and a lot of them are against weird teams. Against the top teams in the East, we've been mostly competitive.

Beyond that, nothing egregious was said. It was basically that the Rangers have some flaws and need good special teams play. They even noted that we improved since the deadline, but I think the above sentiment is still true.

Anybody on here being honest with themselves would have said the same thing.

Wyshynski is a Devils homer and clown but this article was mostly repeating what other people told him.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Risking a lifetime ban from @Machinehead by posting this NYR Fluff Piece:

Goodrow stole my moms coat

 

[MrAlmost]

This is close to what I have seen watching them play. A good team overall that is absolutely deadly if you give them just an inch of an opening. We will see, but I also agree that the Canes just play a certain way that the Rangers don't match up well against and I have no doubt in my mind that if we get through round 1, that's round 2.

On top of that, they are a team that never worries. They are always in the game and that deadly nature comes into play when a team tries to protect on us when up. A very interesting team and I for one have thought it's been a fun season.

It's easy, and frankly a chickens choice, to say they will lose. You have a 31 to 1 chance of being right every year. Wow. Really went out on a limb with that prediction. I think the reality is, this year moreso than perhaps the last 2 or 3 years, that no one in the league is the powerhouse people wish to see.

As always, it's gonna be exciting. A first round out will be a disappointment. But anything after that and really it's a good year and there are good teams. They're trying to win too, ya know. Haha

 

[Synergy27]

Has anyone ever done a sensitivity analysis, or otherwise extrapolated the rate stats in a way that makes it easier to understand really how impactful they are.

Like, how significant a difference is 48% xGF% vs 52%. Even if we assumed xGF% is a perfect stat that exactly describes how a team will score in the future, how much better is a 52% team vs a 48%?

My take is that, similar to goaltending generally, there are a couple of outliers in either direction and then a huge middle where the differences are pretty much insignificant. Definitely it significant enough to manifest in a one game sample, and still likely not significant enough to render a seven game series a foregone conclusion.

This team can beat anyone. Need to stay healthy, get good goaltending, and get some bounces as is the case with every team that wins it all in the cap era.

 

[jay from jersey]

Buyer beware on Drouin. We've seen this scenario play out with other players. They never live up to their potential, bounce around a few times, then finally get into a situation where they are making peanuts and produce good numbers. Some GMs see those numbers and believe they are repeatable in a different situation, but much more often than not, they aren't.

Maybe Drouin could produce on a wing with Kreider and Zib, but how much are we willing to pay to find out? It certainly won't be the 825k he's making this year, and given his track record, I'm less inclined to roll those dice.

Wouldn’t go near this guy with a 10ft pole. Especially in a city like NY.
Any success he would have here would be short term….
Risk is not worth the reward imo…
Let aves keep him and staple him to Mack. He’ll be better served to carve out a solid career that way.
I don’t think his agent will hold their feet to the fire with contract demands either. This guy was a razors edge away from being out of the league

 

[Machinehead]

Has anyone ever done a sensitivity analysis, or otherwise extrapolated the rate stats in a way that makes it easier to understand really how impactful they are.

Like, how significant a difference is 48% xGF% vs 52%. Even if we assumed xGF% is a perfect stat that exactly describes how a team will score in the future, how much better is a 52% team vs a 48%?

My take is that, similar to goaltending generally, there are a couple of outliers in either direction and then a huge middle where the differences are pretty much insignificant. Definitely it significant enough to manifest in a one game sample, and still likely not significant enough to render a seven game series a foregone conclusion.

This team can beat anyone. Need to stay healthy, get good goaltending, and get some bounces as is the case with every team that wins it all in the cap era.

Well let's say a team averages around 48%, and you're looking at probably around 5 xG per game at even strength, that works out to 2.6 to 2.4.

0.2 goals per game times 82 is about 17 goals a season. If your opponent scores 17 more real goals than you, you're probably a bottom 10 team. It doesn't sound like a lot, but it has an effect.

In playoffs, you play on average, what about 24 games? It's probably a 5-goal difference assuming luck and goaltending is equal, which it never f***ing is, but it's not something I want to flirt with.

I would say, however, that the issue is more stylistic than number-based. Winning teams that have poor 5v5 metrics (losing teams just suck) tend to emphasize quality and let their opponent have the puck if they deem that it's not a "quality" look. On their other size of the puck, there's a tendecy to pass up shots from good areas and a strong cycle game for rush chances.

These teams tend to do worse in the playoffs because:

1) Elite competition aren't giving you rush chances.

2) Playoff goals are way cagier than regular season goals on the whole, and the shots you're letting your opponent take are bouncing off two skates and an ass cheek and going in.

Those are my concerns.

The numbers aren't insurmountable. We can win. To say we don't play the style that usually wins is probably fair.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Goodrow stole my moms coat

this jacket is fire

 

[Synergy27]

Well let's say a team averages around 48%, and you're looking at probably around 5 xG per game at even strength, that works out to 2.6 to 2.4.

0.2 goals per game times 82 is about 17 goals a season. If your opponent scores 17 more real goals than you, you're probably a bottom 10 team. It doesn't sound like a lot, but it has an effect.

In playoffs, you play on average, what about 24 games? It's probably a 5-goal difference assuming luck and goaltending is equal, which it never f***ing is, but it's not something I want to flirt with.

I would say, however, that the issue is more stylistic than number-based. Winning teams that have poor 5v5 metrics (losing teams just suck) tend to emphasize quality and let their opponent have the puck if they deem that it's not a "quality" look. On their other size of the puck, there's a tendecy to pass up shots from good areas and a strong cycle game for rush chances.

These teams tend to do worse in the playoffs because:

1) Elite competition aren't giving you rush chances.

2) Playoff goals are way cagier than regular season goals on the whole, and the shots you're letting your opponent take are bouncing off two skates and an ass cheek and going in.

Those are my concerns.

The numbers aren't insurmountable. We can win. To say we don't play the style that usually wins is probably fair.

I mean. Yeah. The playoffs are four rounds of caveman hockey. It’s amazing that Carolina hasn’t won under Rod.

But I’m not really super concerned about a team that takes three more shots per game than we do. Ten? Yeah.

 

[n8]

That's disappointing if the Coyotes relocate. I'm not a Coyotes fan but I do feel for die hard fans if their team goes away. I would be quite sad if the Rangers or Mets left for some reason.

That plan for the arena in Arizona looked really nice.

Is it crazy how long Arizona has hung on but Atlanta was whisked away to Winnipeg with Bettman barely even passing gas?

 

[GENESISPuck94]

Is it crazy how long Arizona has hung on but Atlanta was whisked away to Winnipeg with Bettman barely even passing gas?

I think the problem was with ownership in Atlanta not giving a crap. Awful ownership from what I understand.

Coyotes are making the effort to stay in Arizona.

 

[IDvsEGO]

I think the problem was with ownership in Atlanta not giving a crap. Awful ownership from what I understand.

Coyotes are making the effort to stay in Arizona.

Coyotes ownership is equally awful.
The league had to own the team for how long?
Also that was the league’s choice, save the coyotes or save Atlanta.

 

[NYR Viper]

I mean. Yeah. The playoffs are four rounds of caveman hockey. It’s amazing that Carolina hasn’t won under Rod.

But I’m not really super concerned about a team that takes three more shots per game than we do. Ten? Yeah.

The issue is they have to REALLY work for their goals and opportunities which requires immense effort. Over a long series it's possible, over 2 long series' it's harder. Over 3? Over 4? I think there own physical style is what eventually chews up that team.

The other issue they have is that they are a really high energy, good skating team that demands stops/starts and physical play from top to bottom. They have good players but most of their players are not what one would call 'large'. So again, they have a style that stresses speed and pressure but have a somewhat undersized group to make that pressure possible but it leads to a heavy toll on their bodies which manifests itself more in the playoffs.

 

[Synergy27]

So I am looking at the 5v5 data right now. I created a new stat: CF/G.

As expected, the Hurricanes are a massive positive outlier at 57.37. The Ducks are a massive negative outlier at 40.82.

Then you have 18 teams in the 48-52 range and the remaining 13 teams are between 42-48.

I really don’t think the differences in that 18 team grouping mean anything. I certainly wouldn’t be placing any real money bets using that stat as a key component of my analysis.

 

[UnSandvich]

I just want puck tracking tech to get to the point where we can separate useful hits & physicality from the Tanner Glass Special of “hit ‘em 3 seconds after the puck is gone but light enough that the refs don’t call it”

 

[bhamill]

Hits after the puck is gone are useful for wearing down an opponent. Especially in a series. Though light ones three seconds late... not so much.

 

[B17 Apricots]

Arizona is a shame, especially given the demographic. One of the biggest cities in the country. After they made the playoffs in their first 4 seasons they've missed the playoffs 18 times in the following 24 years, including this season. It's an abomination. There's people that know the in's and out's far more than me. The budget put on that team, for years they became a dumping ground for unwanted contracts just to reach the cap floor. No hope for them to be competitive. They've given people in that region zero reason to support them

 

[Clark Kellogg]

Up in the Blue Seats with Brian Boyle featuring HHOF Larry Brooks:

 

[Machinehead]

Hits after the puck is gone are useful for wearing down an opponent. Especially in a series. Though light ones three seconds late... not so much.

The trouble with that is every player who is ostensibly wearing the opponent with these kinds of hits is getting caved, a la Tanner Glass.

They can't be wearing them out that much.

 

[17futurecap]

Wennberg has 9 shots on goal in 16 games, hes really lived up to the scouting report of not shooting.

 

[majordomo]

I think the problem was with ownership in Atlanta not giving a crap. Awful ownership from what I understand.

Coyotes are making the effort to stay in Arizona.

Correction -- Buttface is doing everything in his power to stay in Arizona. I saw something on another site that said if Coyotes leave Arizona, Buttface will put another team there.

 

[Clark Kellogg]

Wennberg has 9 shots on goal in 16 games, hes really lived up to the scouting report of not shooting.

We definitely need more of those pass first forwards.
What are you thinking; three year extension?

 

[LannyMcdonald]

Coyotes ownership is equally awful.
The league had to own the team for how long?
Also that was the league’s choice, save the coyotes or save Atlanta.

Arizona as a state producing young players matters. Not so many came out of Georgia.

 

[Crease]

Wennberg has 9 shots on goal in 16 games, hes really lived up to the scouting report of not shooting.

Boggles my mind that a forward can go an entire game without a shot on goal. It’s the entire point of their existence. Good players shoot. Good players make it a point to shoot. If you’re not getting shots on goal, you’re spending too much time defending, overpassing, or both.

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

Boggles my mind that a forward can go an entire game without a shot on goal. It’s the entire point of their existence. Good players shoot. Good players make it a point to shoot. If you’re not getting shots on goal, you’re spending too much time defending, overpassing, or both.

In Wennbergs case I feel like he is just not as involved as he should be. He's not ever hard on a puck. He doesn't drive anything in the offensive zone...and he's pretty damn soft. I understand he's responsible and rarely makes a mistake that costs a goal but damn he's underwhelming in the offensive zone.