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Speculation: Roster Building Thread LVI: Artemi, where art thou? In NY.

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Machinehead said:
Here's good news.

We've talked about making Chytil and Andersson just guys instead of the focal point of the organization. In one summer, we've done that. Kakko, Kravtsov, and Panarin are core talents. While we absolutely want Chytil and Andersson to succeed, we're in a position now where their failure would not set the organization back years.

I am concerned that all of our strength is in the wing, but Gorton doesn't seem to mind and I think he's earned leash.
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There is less pressure on those guys but they will also be fighting for a spot which are now less of since the additions. That is a good thing. Healthy competiton to fight and keep a spot makes a better player. Imo.

All i know is this has been an amazing off season and makes next year exciting. I am still hoping they find a way to keep Kreider but it doesnt look good sadly.

Like to see them squeeze into the playoffs, make a little noise, and get these kids some playoff experience. I don’t think that is near the impossible now.
 
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ZuccsFluffierFluffer said:
On the other side, if this team has 5 fewer games where their goalie steals a point, they're at 73 points.

It's easy to forget, but a bunch of their blown leads came in games they shouldn't have been leading to begin with.
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Plus, these things fluctuate from year to year. I’m pretty sure it’s been shown that just because a team is involved in 1-goal games one year, there’s no correlation the following year.
 
jas said:
Plus, these things fluctuate from year to year. I’m pretty sure it’s been shown that just because a team is involved in 1-goal games one year, there’s no correlation the following year.
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Not at all. Last years team was a bad team that finished with a bad record. That wasn't an accident.

Next year's team will almost certainly be better. Last year's pie in the sky "This team could surprise!" prognostications were silly, but I buy them for this upcoming season, though I don't know how much of a surprise it would be. I'm not expecting a playoff appearance, but at the same time it wouldn't surprise me.
 
ZuccsFluffierFluffer said:
Not at all. Last years team was a bad team that finished with a bad record. That wasn't an accident.

Next year's team will almost certainly be better. Last year's pie in the sky "This team could surprise!" prognostications were silly, but I buy them for this upcoming season, though I don't know how much of a surprise it would be. I'm not expecting a playoff appearance, but at the same time it wouldn't surprise me.
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I don't know if they're a playoff team, but I'll be disappointed in our coaching staff if they're healthy and absolutely awful.

Last year, they were absolutely awful. 6th worst record and they significantly outplayed themselves.
 
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Machinehead said:
Here's good news.

We've talked about making Chytil and Andersson just guys instead of the focal point of the organization. In one summer, we've done that. Kakko, Kravtsov, and Panarin are core talents. While we absolutely want Chytil and Andersson to succeed, we're in a position now where their failure would not set the organization back years.

I am concerned that all of our strength is in the wing, but Gorton doesn't seem to mind and I think he's earned leash.
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the addition of kakko, kravtsov and panarin is gonna be huge for chytil, andersson and howden...it takes so much pressure off them plus also likely means they will end up playing with better players than they did last year...I think being the first wave of young players there was unfair expectations put on them.

its really ridiculous how down people are on those 3 after a rough year playing mostly on the 4th line getting limited minutes. chytil isn't even 20 yet FFS, lias is still 20, howden is 21 and people act like they are done developing. as others have said just imagine how much differently people would think of those 3 if they had spent last year in the AHL or europe and were coming in this year as rookies...

i'm rooting so hard for those 3 to come in this year physically stronger and more mature and shoving it down all our throats...
 
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duhmetreE said:
Nothing has changed. This is still a process. The youngins still need to develop, we're no where near the peak. We're on the uptrend though... If we make the playoffs, cool. It'd be good experience
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Definitely. Expectations can’t go through the roof. It’s just not precautionary BS. Often things get worse before they get better when you make changes, we were pretty bad to start with. It’s not about things going wrong, it’s a process to make them go right. I am excited and always an optimist, I wouldn’t rule out us playing great next season. It’s not that, but in today’s league to a large extent you are rolling the dice. Adding a couple of players that are talented and established don’t change the odds over night.
 
Ask yourself who over-performed / exceeded expectations last year?

Zibanejad could be argued but more likely is that his breakout season should have been earlier if not for unfortunate injuries. Strome finished exceptionally well for the Rangers but he was just as exceptionally terrible before with Edmonton and there was a very noticeable transition period. So if there was an over performance - it would be in a 3-4 weeks stretch.
Who else? The only one I can think of is Hayes who’s not on a team and so we don’t need to build a decline into the next season’s prediction. Everyone else should reasonably be expected to be at least marginally better, though I think there be at least one massive improvement.
 
Leetch3 said:
the addition of kakko, kravtsov and panarin is gonna be huge for chytil, andersson and howden...it takes so much pressure off them plus also likely means they will end up playing with better players than they did last year...I think being the first wave of young players there was unfair expectations put on them.

its really ridiculous how down people are on those 3 after a rough year playing mostly on the 4th line getting limited minutes. chytil isn't even 20 yet FFS, lias is still 20, howden is 21 and people act like they are done developing. as others have said just imagine how much differently people would think of those 3 if they had spent last year in the AHL or europe and were coming in this year as rookies...

i'm rooting so hard for those 3 to come in this year physically stronger and more mature and shoving it down all our throats...
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People quickly forget that Lias played about 10 minus a game and chytil 13.
 
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kovazub94 said:
Ask yourself who over-performed / exceeded expectations last year?

Zibanejad could be argued but more likely is that his breakout season should have been earlier if not for unfortunate injuries. Strome finished exceptionally well for the Rangers but he was just as exceptionally terrible before with Edmonton and there was a very noticeable transition period. So if there was an over performance - it would be in a 3-4 weeks stretch.
Who else? The only one I can think of is Hayes who’s not on a team and so we don’t need to build a decline into the next season’s prediction. Everyone else should reasonably be expected to be at least marginally better, though I think there be at least one massive improvement.
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I would add DeAngelo to the “exceeded expectations” group, but that certainly doesn’t mean he can’t still improve.
 
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Machinehead said:
I don't know if they're a playoff team, but I'll be disappointed in our coaching staff if they're healthy and absolutely awful.

Last year, they were absolutely awful. 6th worst record and they significantly outplayed themselves.
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100%

Last year's team wasn't very good though. Many people though of them as bottom 5 quality and they finished slightly above that.

There was a ton of negative momentum with that team that wasn't their fault which obviously played a role (everyone knew they were basically playing out the season and certain guys were leaving.)

Going to be completely different going into this season.
 
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Machinehead said:
I don't know if they're a playoff team, but I'll be disappointed in our coaching staff if they're healthy and absolutely awful.

Last year, they were absolutely awful. 6th worst record and they significantly outplayed themselves.
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obviously it depends on what trades are made to clear out cap space but I think expectations are way too high.

we were 23rd in offense last year and lost our 3rd highest scorer (hayes), 5th highest scorer (zuke), 6th highest scorer (vesey) and there is a good chance that we could also be without our 2nd highest scorer (kreider) and/or the 4th highest scorer (buchnevich)....and 7 & 8 (strome and namestnikov) could also be gone....so you take an already horrible offense team and remove at least 5 of the top 8 scorers...

panarin is awesome and will super fun to watch....but he isn't replacing all that offense no less making us a good offensive team. we would need big rookie seasons out of kakko and kravtsov (and the bar is probably being set too high but that's a different story) and break out years from chytil, andersson and howden to have a good team

I hope those kids all have monster years...and I think the team will be way more fun to watch but I think we are gonna be way worse than most seem to think
 
Leetch3 said:
obviously it depends on what trades are made to clear out cap space but I think expectations are way too high.

we were 23rd in offense last year and lost our 3rd highest scorer (hayes), 5th highest scorer (zuke), 6th highest scorer (vesey) and there is a good chance that we could also be without our 2nd highest scorer (kreider) and/or the 4th highest scorer (buchnevich)....and 7 & 8 (strome and namestnikov) could also be gone....so you take an already horrible offense team and remove at least 5 of the top 8 scorers...

panarin is awesome and will super fun to watch....but he isn't replacing all that offense no less making us a good offensive team. we would need big rookie seasons out of kakko and kravtsov (and the bar is probably being set too high but that's a different story) and break out years from chytil, andersson and howden to have a good team

I hope those kids all have monster years...and I think the team will be way more fun to watch but I think we are gonna be way worse than most seem to think
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There's definitely a scenario where it all goes wrong, but that scenario, as you're alluding to, is we can't score.

I can live with that. I just don't want another year of being a 44% possession team.
 
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Leetch3 said:
obviously it depends on what trades are made to clear out cap space but I think expectations are way too high.

we were 23rd in offense last year and lost our 3rd highest scorer (hayes), 5th highest scorer (zuke), 6th highest scorer (vesey) and there is a good chance that we could also be without our 2nd highest scorer (kreider) and/or the 4th highest scorer (buchnevich)....and 7 & 8 (strome and namestnikov) could also be gone....so you take an already horrible offense team and remove at least 5 of the top 8 scorers...

panarin is awesome and will super fun to watch....but he isn't replacing all that offense no less making us a good offensive team. we would need big rookie seasons out of kakko and kravtsov (and the bar is probably being set too high but that's a different story) and break out years from chytil, andersson and howden to have a good team

I hope those kids all have monster years...and I think the team will be way more fun to watch but I think we are gonna be way worse than most seem to think
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I don't think there is any chance Buchnevich is moved.

Quinn mentioned him specifically when discussing how the young Russians can benefit from having Panarin here so no worries there.

The only guy that is of any consequence in terms of a loss is Kreider. Goals are definitive, he had 28 of them.
 
Fitzy said:
Season's over guys- we didn't do well with the WAR projections that have McKegg on the third line and Hajek-Shattenkirk outplaying Skjei-Trouba.
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I don't know if I would even say we didn't do well.

16.08 is 3-4 wins off of playoff territory. Our WAR last year was 6.9, 12-13 wins off of playoff territory.

And like you said, the lineup used isn't our best.

And that 7.06 dWAR? Thank you very f***ing much. That would be our best defense corps since the lockout. Higher than our entire team last year.

The forwards struggled in this simulation, and like @Leetch3 pointed out, there's a very viable scenario where the forwards struggle.
 
The issue with looking at the point differential is that we shouldn't have had anywhere near 78 points last year.
 
Machinehead said:
The issue with looking at the point differential is that we shouldn't have had anywhere near 78 points last year.
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as in we should have been worse so it will take an improvement to be just as bad in terms of the standings?
 
Machinehead said:
There's definitely a scenario where it all goes wrong, but that scenario, as you're alluding to, is we can't score.

I can live with that. I just don't want another year of being a 44% possession team.
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Oh, we're going to possess.
 
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