Roster Building Thread IV (2019/2020)

[Avery16]

Do we know anything about where Kreider would prefer to sign or what teams he’d be unwilling to sign with

 

[LORDE]

I get wanting to hedge your bets when we are hyping up Stepan, Kreider, Chytil, etc for the Calder but Kakko has as legit a shot as anyone. I know that may be “putting a lot of pressure on him” like he actually will see this but it’s not a crazy thing to root/hope for. Can’t wait for this season.

1st game of season and I was at an Alice In Chains show... on the floor... Stepan gets a Hatty in his first NHL game.

Don’t count those chicks

 

[kovazub94]

I would bet on Jack Hughes. Quinn Hughes is low on my list...

Inherently more difficult for a defenseman to win Calder.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

26, 28, and 35 points for Pionk, Shattenkirk, and Vesey respectively. I'm pretty sure our incoming rookies (and a guy like Panarin) will be able to offset just about anything we lost from those 3. Panarin might be able to do it himself.

Figure Kakko is good for ~30 points. Krav for ~30. ADA/Fox for ~30 even if you want to split that up between the two of them.

Is all that enough to have us jump up to the 15-20 range? I'm not so sure

 

[RempireStateBuilding]

Is all that enough to have us jump up to the 15-20 range? I'm not so sure

Was that the initial discussion, that the expectation now with who we have is that this team will jump ~7 spots in the standings? I haven't kept much up to date in this thread, but I was under the impression that this season was to see what our rookies can do and to expect some further development/consistency from guys like ADA.

To be fair though, 15-20 leaguewide might not be that outrageous. Last season they finished with 78 points. With just 4 more wins they would have had 86 points and would have been right with ARI/FLA/CHI (18-20, 84-86 pts). I don't think that's too out there just based on the firepower that the team did add, but who knows how the defense will be.

I'm keeping my expectations for the players and team tempered. More than anything I'm just excited to finally have exciting players to watch on my own team. Someone else said it in one of these threads, but I can't remember the last time I was excited for *our* season to start.

 

[kovazub94]

Their production removed isn't a positive

I’m scared the next thing you mention will be about +/- .

 

[TheDirtyH]

Are you going to pro rate those numbers for Zuccarello and Hayes?

If we're talking replacing production, then I don't see why I would do that. All the points they didn't score have no bearing on the NYR's totals from last season.

EDIT: I'm not discussing playoff potentials, I must have missed that component of this. Just figuring about replacing, exceeding last years goals totals, which seems like a reasonable expectation.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

If we're talking replacing production, then I don't see why I would do that. All the points they didn't score have no bearing on the NYR's totals from last season.

I still by my point that we are not going to be a play off contender.

 

[TheDirtyH]

I still by my point that we are not going to be a play off contender.

If we're talking about replacing production, then yes, we're talking about how many points did these players score for us as is relevant to the totals we ended the season with as a team. We won't be trading Panarin at the deadline. Barring injury, he may not on his own replace the offense of Hayes and Zuccarello over a full season, but when comparing this year's projections to last year's totals, he would likely bump those totals up because he could on his own score as many points as those two did for us last season.

 

[offdacrossbar]

26, 28, and 35 points for Pionk, Shattenkirk, and Vesey respectively. I'm pretty sure our incoming rookies (and a guy like Panarin) will be able to offset just about anything we lost from those 3. Panarin might be able to do it himself.

Figure Kakko is good for ~30 points. Krav for ~30. ADA/Fox for ~30 even if you want to split that up between the two of them.

ADA goes for 40 alone. easy. just too much talent there to believe he wont get something like 10/30

 

[Shesterkybomb]

The Blues don't have a Tkachuk like player either, and they just won the Cup. It seems like your idea of "toughness" is changing by the post. First, it was players playing for each other (which we have, but you want to move them). Now its a power forward. Grass is always greener. I'm very glad we aren't the Islanders or the BJs.

My idea of toughness hasn't changed, not sure where you got that. Still believe we need someone who will scrap if need be. Before you say I'm looking for Glass type I'm not. I was commenting on the blues as being a heavy hitting team, one that could intimidate our young players if they leaned on them. If you arent a heavy team you need some type of deterrent, Namestnicov or Fast arent stopping anything from happening, the only guys we currently have that would offer push back are DeAngelo, Smith and Lemieux and 1 of those guys probably isnt playing, and DeAngelo shouldnt have to be the one doing it with his skill set and size. We are a Softish, skilled team and there is nothing wrong with that if you have players that will stick up for our kids when a team gets running around. That's my definition of toughness and it hasnt changed in my lifetime of watching hockey. As I said before a Dubinsky/Prust when they were here type is what I'd be looking for. Someone who can play but fights enough that teams know someone on our team will fight. Smith is the guy right now, I'm doubtful he gets many games in.

 

[Avery16]

My idea of toughness hasn't changed, not sure where you got that. Still believe we need someone who will scrap if need be. Before you say I'm looking for Glass type I'm not. I was commenting on the blues as being a heavy hitting team, one that could intimidate our young players if they leaned on them. If you arent a heavy team you need some type of deterrent, Namestnicov or Fast arent stopping anything from happening, the only guys we currently have that would offer push back are DeAngelo, Smith and Lemieux and 1 of those guys probably isnt playing, and DeAngelo shouldnt have to be the one doing it with his skill set and size. We are a Softish, skilled team and there is nothing wrong with that if you have players that will stick up for our kids when a team gets running around. That's my definition of toughness and it hasnt changed in my lifetime of watching hockey. As I said before a Dubinsky/Prust when they were here type is what I'd be looking for. Someone who can play but fights enough that teams know someone on our team will fight. Smith is the guy right now, I'm doubtful he gets many games in.

I really don’t want to spend a whole lot of time arguing with you about your personal definition of tough, but the one you’re giving here is kind of all over the place. Plus, it’s not borne out by facts. The Blues do hit as a team. So do the Rangers. The Rangers happened to hit a whole lot more, however, so I’m not sure where this “team like the Blues leaning on us” narrative comes from. Forget the fact that the Rangers only play the Blues once or twice a season. The Rangers were 5th *fifth* in team hits last season. A heavy team like the Blues? 24th. We had about 1000 more hits as a team than the Blues.

Ok, next you talk about a “deterrent”. Ok. Who was the “deterrent” for the Blues last season? They didn’t have one, and despite being one of the fewest hitting teams in the league they still won the Cup. Chris Thorburn? Suited up for a single game. Bortuzzo? Played in about 3/4 regular season games and PO games. Was their PIM leader with 30 *thirty* PIM in the POs. Not a very heavy team. We need to check some of our assumptions here.

Now the Rangers- we had 3 players in the top 30 most penalized. In the league. It didn’t win us many games.

 

[pld459666]

Doesn't take that much optimism to think Kakko would at least replace Vesey's production. Will Chytil score more than 20 something points — wouldn't be absurd to expect even a slight bump. Same for Andersson, Howden who missed significant time, Namestikov's attrocious finishing might reboud (off set by Strome collapsing), and on the back end Trouba, a full season of Deangelo, maybe Fox would alone pretty certainly cover Shattenkirk and Pionks 60 points and then there's also room for Skjei to improve his numbers playing with better forwards. Hard to think of us as anything but improved offensively, even by conservative measures.

As for Hayes and Zuccarello.. they scored a combined 78 points for us last year. Panarin just scored nine more points than that on his own last season.

Totals

91 to 87

91 - That is the total points scored by Hayes and Zuccs

 

[TheDirtyH]

Totals

91 to 87

91 - That is the total points scored by Hayes and Zuccs

Kevin Hayes had 42 points with the Rangers last year. Mats Zuccarello had 37. I'm no mathematician (as evinced by my saying 78 rather than 79) but I think you're missing my point.

 

[Fitzy]

ADA goes for 40 alone. easy. just too much talent there to believe he wont get something like 10/30

As long as he doesn't get unnecessarily benched/relegated by the coach.

One of the only nice things about the Shatty buyout is that it substantially increases the chances that DeAngelo gets top PP minutes.

DeAngelo, Trouba, Fox (If he makes the roster) should be the 3 PP blueliners.

Zibby, Kreider, Kakko, Panarin, Buchnevich, Kravtsov should be 6 of the 7 PP forward locks if Kravtsov makes it. Chytil Strome and Namestnikov can fight for the last spot.

 

[BBKers]

2018/2019 NYR SCORING STATS							PRORATED in 82 games
POS	PLAYER	GP	G	A	Pts	Avg/G		G	A	Pts
C	Mika Zibanejad	82	30	44	74	0.90		30	44	74
LW	Chris Kreider	79	28	24	52	0.66		29	25	54
C	Kevin Hayes	51	14	28	42	0.82		23	45	68
RW	Pavel Buchnevich	64	21	17	38	0.59		27	22	49
RW	Mats Zuccarello	46	11	26	37	0.80		20	46	66
LW	Jimmy Vesey	81	17	18	35	0.43		17	18	35
C/RW	Ryan Strome	63	18	15	33	0.52		23	20	43
LW	Vladislav Namestnikov	78	11	20	31	0.40		12	21	33
RD	Tony DeAngelo	61	4	26	30	0.49		5	35	40
RD	Kevin Shattenkirk	73	2	26	28	0.38		2	29	31
RD	Neal Pionk	73	6	20	26	0.36		7	22	29
LD	Brady Skjei	78	8	17	25	0.32		8	18	26
LW/C	Filip Chytil	75	11	12	23	0.31		12	13	25
C	Brett Howden	66	6	17	23	0.35		7	21	29
RW	Jesper Fast	66	8	12	20	0.30		10	15	25
LD	Brendan Smith	63	4	9	13	0.21		5	12	17
LD	Marc Staal	79	3	10	13	0.16		3	10	13
C	Boo Nieves	43	4	6	10	0.23		8	11	19
RW	Brendan Lemieux	19	3	3	6	0.32		13	13	26
C/LW	Lias Andersson	42	2	4	6	0.14		4	8	12
LD	Fredrik Claesson	37	2	4	6	0.16		4	9	13
RD	Adam McQuaid	36	2	3	5	0.14		5	7	11
LW	Connor Brickley	14	1	3	4	0.29		6	18	23
RW	Vinni Lettieri	27	1	2	3	0.11		3	6	9
RW	Ryan Spooner	16	1	1	2	0.13		5	5	10
LW	Cody McLeod	31	1	0	1	0.03		3	0	3
LD	Libor Hajek	5	1	0	1	0.20		16	0	16
LW	Matt Beleskey	4	1	0	1	0.25		21	0	21
C	Steven Fogarty	10	0	0	0	0.00		0	0	0
LD	Ryan Lindgren	5	0	0	0	0.00		0	0	0
D	John Gilmour	5	0	0	0	0.00		0	0	0
W/C	Tim Gettinger	4	0	0	0	0.00		0	0	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

BBKERS PREDICTION 2019/2020 NYR
POS	PLAYER	GP	G	A	Pts	Pts/G
LW	Artemi Panarin	82	28	56	84	1.02
LW	Chris Kreider	61	21	23	44	0.72
LW	Vladislav Namestnikov	51	8	14	22	0.43
LW	Brendan Lemieux	60	8	8	16	0.27
LW	Greg McKegg	10	1	2	3	0.30
LW/RW	Brendan Smith	10	1	1	2	0.20
LW	Matt Beleskey	5	1	0	1	0.20
LW/C/RW	?? New Addition(s)	29	2	6	8	0.28
C	Mika Zibanejad	82	30	44	74	0.90
C/RW	Ryan Strome	82	15	22	37	0.45
LW/C	Filip Chytil	82	12	18	30	0.37
C	Brett Howden	82	9	18	27	0.33
C/LW	Lias Andersson	45	5	11	16	0.36
C	Boo Nieves	12	1	3	4	0.33
C	Steven Fogarty	7	1	1	2	0.29
RW	Pavel Buchnevich	82	30	25	55	0.67
RW	Kaapo Kakko	70	25	27	52	0.74
RW	Vitali Kravtsov	40	8	12	20	0.50
RW	Jesper Fast	82	9	14	23	0.28
RW	Vinni Lettieri	10	1	1	2	0.20
LD	Brady Skjei	82	8	20	28	0.34
LD	Marc Staal	82	3	10	13	0.16
LD	Libor Hajek	42	2	7	9	0.21
LD	Brendan Smith	24	1	3	4	0.17
LD	Yegor Rykov	10	1	2	3	0.30
LD	Ryan Lindgren	6	0	1	1	0.17
RD	Jakub Trouba	82	9	38	47	0.57
RD	Tony DeAngelo	75	4	28	32	0.43
RD	Adam Fox	60	5	12	17	0.28
RD	?? New Addition(s)	29	2	4	6	0.21
	TOTALS*		251	431	682
* - add a couple goalie assists in there as well

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[pld459666]

Kevin Hayes had 42 points with the Rangers last year. Mats Zuccarello had 37. I'm no mathematician (as evinced by my saying 78 rather than 79) but I think you're missing my point.

You asked if they were prorated, my posting the totals was to demonstrate that Panarin is replacing both players when taking in their season totals

 

[NYRFANMANI]

Figure Kakko is good for ~30 points. Krav for ~30.

Yeah ... I'm more like 60 for Kakko and 45 on Kravtsov anything less would be pretty underwhelming.

(I'm serious, I believe Kakko will give us 30/30 AT LEAST)

 

[nyr2k2]

Kevin Hayes had 42 points with the Rangers last year. Mats Zuccarello had 37. I'm no mathematician (as evinced by my saying 78 rather than 79) but I think you're missing my point.

You can't take the totals that those guys produced for us, which is over a partial season, and then use Panarin's full season totals. I understand the point you're trying to make, that Panarin on his own can reproduce a lot of the lost production of Zuccarello and Hayes, but you undermine yourself with the skewed numbers. If you want to make it a fair comparison you'd need to use Panarin's production at the TDL. Like he had 70 points through the end of February--so you should say Hayes and Zuccarello had 79 points for us and in the same time period Panarin had 70 himself.

 

[egelband]

Yeah ... I'm more like 60 for Kakko and 45 on Kravtsov anything less would be pretty underwhelming.

(I'm serious, I believe Kakko will give us 30/30 AT LEAST)

If Kakko gets 15 goals and 20 assists I think we're good.
The role (I think) he'll play is very tough. He'll be doing a lot of the dirty work. A lot of the puck handling. Scoring is kind of the last part of that role to fall into place.
Don't get me wrong, he'll obviously be a scorer and a force in the long run. But I just see it taking some time.
He will push guys around and do a lot of impressive things. But it may not end up in points immediately.
It's a lot different from a guy who relies on his teammates to do the dirty work. It's going to be a struggle for a while.

 

[Mikos87]

@BBKers made a great post about the goal totals being projected.

If Hayes and Zucc's ~80 points of production are replaced by 80 points from the breadman, and you have a couple of rookies in KK and Krav that give your 30-35 goals combined, the team is going to be fine offensively.

I think the Rangers are as good as how many quality 25 minute a night games Skjei-Trouba gives you, and a handful of steals from the goalie trio.

I still see this team as having a poor PK, no 4th line roles being filled, and one that will make a lot of young player mistakes with intermittent bouts of consistency.

In other words, a team that misses the playoffs in wildly entertaining and at the same time frustrating fashion.

There are a couple of things I think Gorts and Co could have done to upgrade the team, but did not, which will become evident by January if not sooner.

• Kept Ruff- A guy known for the some of the worst defensive structured teams and coaching for the last what? 15 Years?
• Didn't address 4th line options. I get it- hard to do with the cap constraints and the Trouba & Breadman moves are more important, but still... this is a 4th line you are talking about.

I would say with the development of the kids, the Rangers are 1 firing, and 3-4 roster moves away from the playoffs. Which is a very doable thing by the next trade deadline and off-season.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

If Kakko gets 15 goals and 20 assists I think we're good.
The role (I think) he'll play is very tough. He'll be doing a lot of the dirty work. A lot of the puck handling. Scoring is kind of the last part of that role to fall into place.
He will push guys around and do a lot of impressive things. But it may not end up in points immediately.
It's a lot different from a guy who relies on his teammates to do the dirty work. It's going to be a struggle for a while.

The only circumstance where I'll be good with a 35 pts season from Kakko is, if we pick in the top 5 then. Only then.

You say it yourself, it will depend on his role and his linemates. I consider him top 3 on the team ATM, so this brings us to a question I wanted to ask these past days:
Do we play our best players on one line or spread the wealth? Like split Zibs and Panarin. I'd go with full force top line = top players = Pan - Zib - Kakko

That's 60 pts for Kakko or fml honestly.

I think Kakko won't really get a grinder role (I suppose that's what you describe), I'm banking on veni, vidi, vici PWF or SNP. Just get that juggernaut-line going.

 

[egelband]

The only circumstance where I'll be good with a 35 pts season from Kakko is, if we pick in the top 5 then. Only then.

You say it yourself, it will depend on his role and his linemates. I consider him top 3 on the team ATM, so this brings us to a question I wanted to ask these past days:
Do we play our best players on one line or spread the wealth? Like split Zibs and Panarin. I'd go with full force top line = top players = Pan - Zib - Kakko

That's 60 pts for Kakko or fml honestly.

I think Kakko won't really get a grinder role (I suppose that's what you describe), I'm banking on veni, vidi, vici PWF or SNP. Just get that juggernaut-line going.

I guess my point is, he's a guy that will be the focal point of his line. One way to develop him is to staple him to Panarin or Zibanejad. But I don't think that's his style. Another option is to play him with complementary guys on a lower-exposure line. He can have a little more freedom which I think is more his style.

(I'll add that I think this is kind of the approach they took with Chytil last year but I don't think it did him a lot of good. Though of course it remains to be seen. It's still early days).

 

[Ola]

Do we know anything about where Kreider would prefer to sign or what teams he’d be unwilling to sign with

To be honest, it’s hard to imagine a player that we could know — less — about in this regard.

Like we know that the guy is from Boston. OTOH some Boston kids close to Kreider haven’t been super keen on going to play there. So who knows.

Some US players don’t want to play in Canada, but Kreider OTOH isn’t your normal dude and in some senses gives the impression that you can’t get too much of the game.

I don’t know if anyone got any actual reports on this topic?

 

[Ola]

On the lines, Quinn seems to be a bit of a weather vane in relation to the media meaning that he will turn in whatever the direction the wind blows. Initially I think it’s almost a guarantee that he will play Panarin with Zibanejad.

And sure, it can work and they can form a dominant line.

But I wouldn’t bank on it. The NHL isn’t an easy league. If anything, it’s easy to play against a skilled line that aren’t in perfect sync since they will try to be top fancy and you can just wait for it to expose itself and then set off in the other direction.

Zibanejad isn’t a super low maintenance player. I think that the support we provided for him last season was a bit underrated. Zibanejad is a big guy who takes a little time to get going. We did a great job at keeping the puck within the team so that he could build up that speed and then we “found him” at the right time.

Panarin is on the other side a player who is so good with the puck and always will buy his line time with it and create offense.

So sure they will compliment each other really well in some senses, but on the other hand the total pay-off could be higher if you split them because I am sure a Kreider-Ziba-Buch/Kravy/Kakko line could be fairly good without Panarin — it was last season! — while a line with say Chytil-Buch/Kravy/Kakko on it could be 10x as good with Panarin on the left instead of anyone of the other suspects.

But I wouldn’t bet on DQ trying to be cute with it from the get go...