Return for Matthews in a trade

[thewave]

You will never get anywhere near equal value for AM so let's stop even thinking about a trade until it's 100% positive he's not signing this off-season.

50% retained will give a good return though. Who doesn't want a 40+ goal scorer with the opportunity to maybe sign. Same with Marner on the retained.

 

[Americanadian]

You will never get anywhere near equal value for AM so let's stop even thinking about a trade until it's 100% positive he's not signing this off-season.

Let's not talk about the option that currently seems more likely?

 

[Stephen]

Why does the fanbase always seem to be looking for a betrayal scenario from Auston Matthews?

Maybe this will all unfold the way it's been prophesized in guarantees, but is it not also possible that he just want a lot of money, stay a Leaf and continue the adventure like he's said as recently as 6 days ago?

Take a deep breath. Let it play out.

 

[Americanadian]

Why does the fanbase always seem to be looking for a betrayal scenario from Auston Matthews?

Maybe this will all unfold the way it's been prophesized in guarantees, but is it not also possible that he just want a lot of money, stay a Leaf and continue the adventure like he's said as recently as 6 days ago?

Take a deep breath. Let it play out.

The issue with him wanting to stay is the "wants a lot of money".

 

[tmlms13]

50% retained will give a good return though. Who doesn't want a 40+ goal scorer with the opportunity to maybe sign. Same with Marner on the retained.

I don't want good enough return. That's trading him for the sake of it. That's what losers do.

If you are going to trade him make that team overpay to get a top 10 center in the NHL

 

[Stephen]

The issue with him wanting to stay is the "wants a lot of money".

Well he already makes a lot of money. So it's not entirely a crisis the same way that Colorado doubling Mackinnon's raise represents.

To give you an idea, the incremental raise to $13 million + is the price of a Connor Timmins. You stretch that out a bit to $13.7 million, that's Justin Holl, and beyond that it gets a little more uncomfortable, but the cost is already mostly baked in.

I don't think you're rational if you're ending the Matthews era over the price of a Connor Timmins and you're looking to get back Wyatt Johnston cause he scored a nice goal in Seattle last week.

Ultimately, I think we sign him, protect the asset and just keep building with him. If it doesn't work down the road, maybe you revisit a move then. A panic sell now isn't likely to end well. You'll feel worse after making that kind of move.

 

[tmlms13]

Let's not talk about the option that currently seems more likely?

You honestly think it is more likely that the Leafs trade auston matthews than resign him?

 

[lanceuppercut75]

Some people still don't get it, so I'll say it one more time :

A 1 year rental of Matthews is not worth the same as Matthews with 3 or more years left on his contract. Leafs fans expecting to get an insane good return in a Matthews trade are going to be disappointed, unless it's a sign-and-trade with the Kings or Ducks or Coyotes, which is probably unlikely.

 

[Americanadian]

Well he already makes a lot of money. So it's not entirely a crisis the same way that Colorado doubling Mackinnon's raise represents.

To give you an idea, the incremental raise to $13 million + is the price of a Connor Timmins. You stretch that out a bit to $13.7 million, that's Justin Holl, and beyond that it gets a little more uncomfortable, but the cost is already mostly baked in.

I don't think you're rational if you're ending the Matthews era over the price of a Connor Timmins and you're looking to get back Wyatt Johnston cause he scored a nice goal in Seattle last week.

Ultimately, I think we sign him, protect the asset and just keep building with him. If it doesn't work down the road, maybe you revisit a move then. A panic sell now isn't likely to end well. You'll feel worse after making that kind of move.

Do you not see how flawed this thinking is? He does not deserve to be the highest paid player, let alone by 1M+. McDavid is perennially a top 3 player in the league, MacKinnon has scored at a point per game on every playoff run he's ever been on while also outproducing Matthews' every regular season but 1. Matthews' taking up 13M+ is just ridiculous and it just further rewards him for a lack of (playoff) results.

Also - I was proposing the Johnston deal before the Florida series was over so don't act like it's because he scored 1 goal.

You honestly think it is more likely that the Leafs trade auston matthews than resign him?

Yes. Honestly.

 

[Stephen]

Do you not see how flawed this thinking is? He does not deserve to be the highest paid player, let alone by 1M+. McDavid is perennially a top 3 player in the league, MacKinnon has scored at a point per game on every playoff run he's ever been on while also outproducing Matthews' every regular season but 1. Matthews' taking up 13M+ is just ridiculous and it just further rewards him for a lack of (playoff) results.

Also - I was proposing the Johnston deal before the Florida series was over so don't act like it's because he scored 1 goal.

Yeah, I'm here if you want to make a Mackinnon > Matthews argument. There are many things Mackinnon does better, and he has a lot of innate qualities I've always wanted Matthews to develop. Mack's cup win weighs more than the individual trophies. McDavid is McDavid. No argument there.

But you also have to realize you're struggling with a hypothetical here, and just because those two other guys are better and cheaper doesn't mean dumping Matthews is a solution. Wyatt Johnston isn't even a conversation starter for me. He's going to be a really good player, but that's an untenable downgrade.

 

[Americanadian]

Yeah, I'm here if you want to make a Mackinnon > Matthews argument. There are many things Mackinnon does better, and he has a lot of innate qualities I've always wanted Matthews to develop. Mack's cup win weighs more than the individual trophies. McDavid is McDavid. No argument there.

But you also have to realize you're struggling with a hypothetical here, and just because those two other guys are better and cheaper doesn't mean dumping Matthews is a solution. Wyatt Johnston isn't even a conversation starter for me. He's going to be a really good player, but that's an untenable downgrade.

I would rather cash out on the asset for whatever it is worth than overpay the asset and carry a borderline negative asset going forward. There are arguably 3-4 players better than Matthews and they are on 2 teams (McDavid, Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Makar). There are 13 other teams that make the playoffs each year. There are 5-7 other teams that make the 2nd round each year, and so on. I don't think the only solution is letting Matthews bend over the franchise and continue to ruin the salary structure for years to come. If you sign Matthews at 13M+ I don't see how Nylander stays for less than 10M, despite not being worth that. I'd prefer re-starting the cap structure post Tavares similar to a team like Tampa or Carolina.

 

[hamzarocks]

I previously proposed Johnston, Marchment (cap balancing), Stankoven for Matthews @50%, Robertson

I'd ask for another 1st to be added but tbh if Im the Stars I probably tell the leafs thanks but no

Wyatt Johnson is a surefire 60-70 pt player with more room

Stankoven is small sized which is a bit of a concern but hes likley a similar 60-70 pt guy at the bare

Those two are more valuable on cheaper deals to build around as support to Robertson + Hintz

 

[authentic]

I would rather cash out on the asset for whatever it is worth than overpay the asset and carry a borderline negative asset going forward. There are arguably 3-4 players better than Matthews and they are on 2 teams (McDavid, Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Makar). There are 13 other teams that make the playoffs each year. There are 5-7 other teams that make the 2nd round each year, and so on. I don't think the only solution is letting Matthews bend over the franchise and continue to ruin the salary structure for years to come. If you sign Matthews at 13M+ I don't see how Nylander stays for less than 10M, despite not being worth that. I'd prefer re-starting the cap structure post Tavares similar to a team like Tampa or Carolina.

So you're more concerned with the cap structure than the quality of players involved? We won't be getting anyone back that compare to those two in a trade.

 

[hamzarocks]

Yeah, I'm here if you want to make a Mackinnon > Matthews argument. There are many things Mackinnon does better, and he has a lot of innate qualities I've always wanted Matthews to develop. Mack's cup win weighs more than the individual trophies. McDavid is McDavid. No argument there.

But you also have to realize you're struggling with a hypothetical here, and just because those two other guys are better and cheaper doesn't mean dumping Matthews is a solution. Wyatt Johnston isn't even a conversation starter for me. He's going to be a really good player, but that's an untenable downgrade.

Wyatt johnson is better than any young asset (prospect or pick in 2023 draft( could get in a AM34 trade barring the below IMO:

2023 1st OA
2023 2nd OA
2023 3rd OA
2023 4th OA
Jiricek
Nemec
Luke Hughes
Cooley

Those are the only 7 8 pick/prospect assets I would take over him

He will be a ppg center if developed right, is a toronto kid and has a drive to be great.

@Americanadian deal of Wyatt + Stankoven (an absolute beauty of a propsect with size the only slight concern) + Marchment for Matthews extended + robertson is almost good enough

I would want just 1 more 1st rounder ideally for 2025 as we don't have our own pick there

 

[Americanadian]

I'd ask for another 1st to be added but tbh if Im the Stars I probably tell the leafs thanks but no

Wyatt Johnson is a surefire 60-70 pt player with more room

Stankoven is small sized which is a bit of a concern but hes likley a similar 60-70 pt guy at the bare

Those two are more valuable on cheaper deals to build around as support to Robertson + Hintz

I wouldn’t go as far as saying either are she fire 60-70 point players but I agree that Dallas likely says no. It’s tough to find a trade that truly makes sense for both sides.

I am now thinking:
Matthews @50%, Samsonov for Clarke, Vilardi, Arvidsson, Peterson

Basically just clear as much cap for LAK as possible so the deal makes sense for them. The Leafs take big money this year until Arvidsson expires and then they’re left with 1 year of Petersen in the minors, Clarke and Vilardi moving forward. Sign Adin Hill or another UFA G or play Murray.

So you're more concerned with the cap structure than the quality of players involved? We won't be getting anyone back that compare to those two in a trade.

Absolutely I am. The league is won on value per dollar, not star power.

 

[Stephen]

Wyatt johnson is better than any asset we could get in a AM34 trade barring the below IMO:

2023 1st OA
2023 2nd OA
2023 3rd OA
2023 4th OA
Jiricek
Nemec
Luke Hughes
Cooley

Those are the only 7 8 pick/prospect assets I would take over him

He will be a ppg center if developed right, is a toronto kid and has a drive to be great.

@Americanadian deal of Wyatt + Stankoven (an absolute beauty of a propsect with size the only slight concern) + Marchment for Matthews extended + robertson is almost good enough

I would want just 1 more 1st rounder ideally for 2025 as we don't have our own pick there

No offense, Wyatt Johnston, Logan Stankoven and a 1st wouldn't get you Mitch Marner, let alone an extended Matthews.

 

[hamzarocks]

I wouldn’t go as far as saying either are she fire 60-70 point players but I agree that Dallas likely says no. It’s tough to find a trade that truly makes sense for both sides.

I am now thinking:
Matthews @50%, Samsonov for Clarke, Vilardi, Arvidsson, Peterson

Basically just clear as much cap for LAK as possible so the deal makes sense for them. The Leafs take big money this year until Arvidsson expires and then they’re left with 1 year of Petersen in the minors, Clarke and Vilardi moving forward. Sign Adin Hill or another UFA G or play Murray.

Not enough future based for me personally

Vilardi is fine but a win now piece and just a decent one

Clarke is amazing but he is one piece

I value Wyatt Johnson + Stankoven + 2025 1st as incredible

Wyatt Johnson had 41 pts as a D+2 player this year on the third line for the Stars

Stankoven is the 2nd best player in the CHL behind the Mcdavid's potential rival Bedard.

Those two not hitting 60-70 pt range would be poor development from the NHL coaching.

Wyatt is likely there as soon as next year when he gets elevated role for the stars

Stankoven if his size doesnt hold him back will be in that debrincat/gaudreau range of star producers.

 

[Americanadian]

Not enough future based for me personally

Vilardi is fine but a win now piece and just a decent one

Clarke is amazing but he is one piece

I value Wyatt Johnson + Stankoven + 2025 1st as incredible

Wyatt Johnson had 41 pts as a D+2 player this year on the third line for the Stars

Stankoven is the 2nd best player in the CHL behind the Mcdavid's potential rival Bedard.

Those two not hitting 60-70 pt range would be poor development from the NHL coaching.

Wyatt is likely there as soon as next year when he gets elevated role for the stars

Stankoven if his size doesnt hold him back will be in that debrincat/gaudreau range of star producers.

I also prefer the Dallas package by a landslide, even without a pick added. I just don’t think Dallas would do it anymore. There is a chance that they feel they are right on the edge of winning after this run and see Matthews as a piece to push them over the edge.

 

[hamzarocks]

No offense, Wyatt Johnston, Logan Stankoven and a 1st wouldn't get you Mitch Marner, let alone an extended Matthews.

I really dont see Marner worth anywhere near that

Leaf fans value Knies as a top 10-15 first rounder

Stankoven is a better prospect by a decent bit

Wheeler ranked him the 9th best prospect in the LEAUGUE in Feb 2023, since then hes put 30 in 14 WHL playoff games.

Getting a 20 year old who just had 41 pts and a high celing + top 10 prospect in the world + another 1st is more than any comparable star I can think of

Erik Karlsson, Jack Eichel did not return this much

This is also after Matthews had a big time down year both reg season and playoffs.

People point to injuries with the wrist but its been 2-3 years now, so if the wrist is an injury concern it should hurt his value a bit

 

[Americanadian]

No offense, Wyatt Johnston, Logan Stankoven and a 1st wouldn't get you Mitch Marner, let alone an extended Matthews.

What? I’d legitimately take Johnston for Marner 1 for 1. Do you not value team control and AAV? Let alone position. Johnston has 2 years left on his ELC. You save 10M for 2 years to go along with Johnston’s production naturally increasing.

 

[authentic]

I wouldn’t go as far as saying either are she fire 60-70 point players but I agree that Dallas likely says no. It’s tough to find a trade that truly makes sense for both sides.

I am now thinking:
Matthews @50%, Samsonov for Clarke, Vilardi, Arvidsson, Peterson

Basically just clear as much cap for LAK as possible so the deal makes sense for them. The Leafs take big money this year until Arvidsson expires and then they’re left with 1 year of Petersen in the minors, Clarke and Vilardi moving forward. Sign Adin Hill or another UFA G or play Murray.


Absolutely I am. The league is won on value per dollar, not star power.

Lol what.

Just about every Cup winning team has elite players at the top + depth. Especially teams who won multiple Cups.

 

[Stephen]

What? I’d legitimately take Johnston for Marner 1 for 1. Do you not value team control and AAV? Let alone position. Johnston has 2 years left on his ELC. You save 10M for 2 years to go along with Johnston’s production naturally increasing.

Only problem is we have no number one center and can’t buy one this summer. How did you even come up with a package that leaves all of Robertson, Oettinger, Heiskanen and Hintz in Dallas? We didn’t get one of them? Work your negotiations harder man if you’re going to go to extreme scenarios.

 

[hamzarocks]

Lol what.

Just about every Cup winning team has elite players at the top + depth. Especially teams who won multiple Cups.

You need elite players + depth

To do that need a hard line at what you pay your stars

Matthews is to inconsistent playoffs and risky with the wrist to buy in at 13M-14M

If your getting Wyatt Johnson (lets say a L/T 70 pt Center at 7M) + Stankoven (likely a really good winger but lets say he settles at 60 pts at 6.5M)

Your getting 130 pts for 13.5M which is right around Matthews cap hit wise and this is after 2ELC years for WJ and 3 for Stankoven.

You can fill your team and roster out with 2 very good players who may elevate in the playoffs vs 1 superstar who cant seem to do so

Matthews at 11-11.5M at 8 years is a different story. Just dont think 13M for 5 years is a good investment for Toronto

 

[Puckstuff]

Why do you believe in these players? Also - it's safe to assume ROR is not returning based on all media reports.

It's less about believing in the players and more about not seeing a better clear alternative right now.

 

[Americanadian]

Only problem is we have no number one center and can’t buy one this summer. How did you even come up with a package that leaves all of Robertson, Oettinger, Heiskanen and Hintz in Dallas? We didn’t get one of them? Work your negotiations harder man if you’re going to go to extreme scenarios.

All of those players on their current contracts are more valuable than Matthews. As far as a 1C goes I’d just run Tavares-Johnston. I’ve said multiple times on the trade board I think the Leafs should trade for 19-21 year old players and take a step back for next season when they own their own pick and come back to competing in 24/25. By that point I believe Johnston will be a NHL 1C.

It's less about believing in the players and more about not seeing a better clear alternative right now.

If you don’t believe in the players why not cash out and start over?

Lol what.

Just about every Cup winning team has elite players at the top + depth. Especially teams who won multiple Cups.

Correct. When’s the last time a team won the cup with a player making 15% of the cap (Matthews @13M with a 87.5M cap)? All the teams that have won in the last 10 years have had strong depth because they could afford it.