Ranking Dubas' worst transactions - #2

[Racer88]

And so far, the two worst things that this place think the GM did was sign an elite player in UFA, and re-sign one of the best young players in the cap era.

That paragraph shows that I actually do understand the difference. There is no singular "RFA rate" and "UFA rate". Different RFA seasons will have different values, and different UFA seasons will have different values, and age impacts everything, as I mentioned. What exactly do you think is wrong?

I mean, there are things like offer sheets, but we also weren't talking about signing restrictions. We were talking about compensation rate throughout different years.

Lol

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner didnt deserve a dime over Mikko Rantanen.

He easily deserved more than Rantanen. It's been shown why countless times.

Are you seriously going to pretend that the contract given to John Tavares didn't directly affect the subsequent contracts that Dubas handed out?

There is no pretending. Tavares' contract factually had zero relevance to our core RFA contracts. Our RFAs got the contracts they did because that's what the pre-signing periods they had were worth, based on the history of post-ELC contracts.

Yes, he was such an important and valued part of the Avalanche defence that spring that the ate some of his salary in order to trade him away and replaced him with nobody.

He was traded because he was a pending UFA that they couldn't afford to re-sign, they desperately needed a center, and they already had Makar emerging as a replacement, not because he was bad.

 

[hamzarocks]

The Marner contract leading is either telling you how good of a GM he is or how dumb this fanbase is.

Marner was slightly overpaid at the time and is well worth his contract now.

Absolute delusional take by you

He isnt worth ~11M.

Where do you rank Marner league wide?

He isn't making any top 10 lists I have seen.

A guy in the mid teens shouldn't be making 11M and double that for a guy who can't score come playoffs.

Rantanen who is a direct comparaboe makes 9.2M for same term. He is bigger, better goal scorer, has played center, and produces in the playoffs at a better clip.

Marner deal was gross and his next deal will also be gross

Leaf fans will then pretend to not know why this team can't build a winner with an "elite" core

 

[seventieslord]

What does Seth Jarvis have to do with anything?

I'm glad to see that option is not picking up much traction here. What was he supposed to do? How can we rate that a bad transaction when he was cleaning up a terrible mess made by a prior GM?

I feel the Foligno deal is the winner here. We paid a king's ransom for basically a 4th line player that we badly wanted to be a top-6 contributor and then lo and behold, couldn't score for shit in the playoffs.

Marner deal's winning round 2 here. OK, we overpaid him by 2M. But we have gotten the best years of a superstar's life by signing him to that contract. We got like 85% of the expected value from that deal. Given what we invested in Foligno, we got about 5% of expected value on that one.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

You're all dumb thinking jt was the worst thing to happen. Leafs fan base is a joke. I'm embarrassed to be affiliated with the majority of you people

There's no base IQ requirement for being a fanatic.

 

[Buds17]

I'm glad to see that option is not picking up much traction here. What was he supposed to do? How can we rate that a bad transaction when he was cleaning up a terrible mess made by a prior GM?

I feel the Foligno deal is the winner here. We paid a king's ransom for basically a 4th line player that we badly wanted to be a top-6 contributor and then lo and behold, couldn't score for shit in the playoffs.

Marner deal's winning round 2 here. OK, we overpaid him by 2M. But we have gotten the best years of a superstar's life by signing him to that contract. We got like 85% of the expected value from that deal. Given what we invested in Foligno, we got about 5% of expected value on that one.

The pick being 13th overall thanks to that series loss against CBJ can certainly be blamed on Dubas (and others) IMO.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The pick being 13th overall thanks to that series loss against CBJ can certainly be blamed on Dubas (and others) IMO.

The pick only ended up 13th overall because the rules of how pick order was determined changed post-trade due to the pandemic.

 

[Byron Bitz]

He easily deserved more than Rantanen. It's been shown why countless times.

There is no pretending. Tavares' contract factually had zero relevance to our core RFA contracts. Our RFAs got the contracts they did because that's what the pre-signing periods they had were worth, based on the history of post-ELC contracts.

He was traded because he was a pending UFA that they couldn't afford to re-sign, they desperately needed a center, and they already had Makar emerging as a replacement, not because he was bad.

Well I agree with you on Tavares contract not affecting the RFA deals. RFA deals are a completely different animal than UFA and are never used as comparables. Tavares was a great signing and if Dubas had played his cards right Tavares might have led us to a championship, he still might.

 

[seventieslord]

The pick being 13th overall thanks to that series loss against CBJ can certainly be blamed on Dubas (and others) IMO.

It can, but both teams knew it was 13th overall when they made the trade.

So if it was a 19th or 23rd or whatever, it may not have been enough by itself to make the deal.

 

[Buds17]

The pick only ended up 13th overall because the rules of how pick order was determined changed post-trade due to the pandemic.

That's fair. They still wouldn't have been exposed to said rules with a win over CBJ though.

 

[Buds17]

It can, but both teams knew it was 13th overall when they made the trade.

So if it was a 19th or 23rd or whatever, it may not have been enough by itself to make the deal.

Fair enough to your second point. That's something we'll never know.

 

[seventieslord]

Fair enough to your second point. That's something we'll never know.

no, we don't know, but we can make an educated guess. Everyone knows a 13th is significantly more valuable than a 19th or a 23rd. If Carolina was going to leverage their cap space to help Toronto, they were going to extract as much value as they could for doing so. If they thought a 13th was enough, it's highly unlikely a much lower pick would have done it for them.

 

[francis246]

He easily deserved more than Rantanen. It's been shown why countless times.

There is no pretending. Tavares' contract factually had zero relevance to our core RFA contracts. Our RFAs got the contracts they did because that's what the pre-signing periods they had were worth, based on the history of post-ELC contracts.

He was traded because he was a pending UFA that they couldn't afford to re-sign, they desperately needed a center, and they already had Makar emerging as a replacement, not because he was bad.

Agreed Tavares contract did not impact the Marner and Matthews deals.

The two contracts that impacted those extensions was the McDavid and Eichel resignings. I keep posting it, but anyone with a brain knew that once Eichel signed a $10 mill extension putting up 50 something points as a career high, it was over for our organization. Marner and Matthews were laughing to the bank. They had out produced Eichel and knew they were going to make $10 million easily. They both were miles better than him.

I don’t think for a second they went in there and said John makes 11 so give us this. The conversation was likely McDavid is getting this, Eichel makes this. We are better than Eichel; so it needs to be a number in between McDavid and Eichel. Players and teams don’t use UFA contracts as comparables for RFA contracts. It’s not that hard to understand.

 

[francis246]

Absolute delusional take by you

He isnt worth ~11M.

Where do you rank Marner league wide?

He isn't making any top 10 lists I have seen.

A guy in the mid teens shouldn't be making 11M and double that for a guy who can't score come playoffs.

Rantanen who is a direct comparaboe makes 9.2M for same term. He is bigger, better goal scorer, has played center, and produces in the playoffs at a better clip.

Marner deal was gross and his next deal will also be gross

Leaf fans will then pretend to not know why this team can't build a winner with an "elite" core

I’d take Marner over Rantanen easily. Not even trying to be a homer but I’d love to see Rantanen in a market outside of Colorado. Im not sure he has the same production. I think Marner is a better player overall. Rantanen is a very solid goal scoring winger though. More of a finisher but he doesn’t drive lines in the same way Marner does and isn’t depended on for the PK like Marner.

Just depends on what you want in building a team. I rather the guy who can play in all situations. It sucks the Marner contract has tainted a lot of fans views of him as a player. Because Marner is legit one of the best players in the league. He plays all situations, creates offense can score you 25-30 goals as well.

 

[hamzarocks]

I’d take Marner over Rantanen easily. Not even trying to be a homer but I’d love to see Rantanen in a market outside of Colorado. Im not sure he has the same production. I think Marner is a better player overall. Rantanen is a very solid goal scoring winger though. More of a finisher but he doesn’t drive lines in the same way Marner does and isn’t depended on for the PK like Marner.

Just depends on what you want in building a team. I rather the guy who can play in all situations. It sucks the Marner contract has tainted a lot of fans views of him as a player. Because Marner is legit one of the best players in the league. He plays all situations, creates offense can score you 25-30 goals as well.

Why would Rantanen not work on another offensive team?

He plays with elite talent and is an elite player

Marner plays with elite talent and is an elite player

Rantanen plays a decent amount of tine without Mack due to Mackinnon being injury prone. He dominated at center a few years back for the Avs

He also dismantles marner come playoffs. Even if you excuse marner and say he is unlucky, Rantanen still dominates the playoffs making him also an elite and one of the best players in the league

There isn't a real argument for marner being better than Rantanen let alone 1.8M better.

Marner is a 11-20th best player in the league similar to Rantanen.

Neither are like Matthews of 2021 or 2022 or Mackinnon from 2018 to now, where they are consistent top 5 players in the league.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That's fair. They still wouldn't have been exposed to said rules with a win over CBJ though.

True, but the risk assessment was based on where we would place over an entire season, so that you're looking at giving up a pick in the 20 range or lower even if you end up losing a playoff series, but the rule change made a 5-game series in the middle of August a higher priority determinator of pick order than the season.

 

[francis246]

Why would Rantanen not work on another offensive team?

He plays with elite talent and is an elite player

Marner plays with elite talent and is an elite player

Rantanen plays a decent amount of tine without Mack due to Mackinnon being injury prone. He dominated at center a few years back for the Avs

He also dismantles marner come playoffs. Even if you excuse marner and say he is unlucky, Rantanen still dominates the playoffs making him also an elite and one of the best players in the league

There isn't a real argument for marner being better than Rantanen let alone 1.8M better.

Marner is a 11-20th best player in the league similar to Rantanen.

Neither are like Matthews of 2021 or 2022 or Mackinnon from 2018 to now, where they are consistent top 5 players in the league.

LOOL, it ain’t that serious. It’s a matter of preference so respectfully it doesn’t matter what you think. I prefer Marner for the reasons I stated. You prefer Rantanen so be it. One plays for the leafs so I’m gonna support that guy cause he’s the only one out of the two who can help us win in this moment. If Rantanen somehow becomes available and we acquire him I’ll cheer for him. But honestly besides the homer effect, I just like Marner’s style of play better. And his ability to penalty kill. Marner could probably play Center if need be. He pretty much plays like a Center and takes on the responsibilities of a Center on his line minus the faceoffs.

I also have Marner as 2nd best RW in the league right now behind Pasta.

 

[IPS]

Everybody knew that defense wasn't his strength, but everybody also knew that he was a good player and coming off an excellent playoffs, where he played 5 minutes more per game than any other Colorado defenseman, and was one of Colorado's best players. That's why the trade was widely viewed as a win for the Leafs when it happened.

Annnnddd it turned out to be completely wrong. Sakic knew exactly what kind of player Barrie was and laughed when he got a quality center Kadri back for him.

 

[hamzarocks]

LOOL, it ain’t that serious. It’s a matter of preference so respectfully it doesn’t matter what you think. I prefer Marner for the reasons I stated. You prefer Rantanen so be it. One plays for the leafs so I’m gonna support that guy cause he’s the only one out of the two who can help us win in this moment. If Rantanen somehow becomes available and we acquire him I’ll cheer for him. But honestly besides the homer effect, I just like Marner’s style of play better. And his ability to penalty kill. Marner could probably play Center if need be. He pretty much plays like a Center and takes on the responsibilities of a Center on his line minus the faceoffs.

I also have Marner as 2nd best RW in the league right now behind Pasta.

Well we need to disagree then. Marner is the 4th or 5th best RW for me

Pasta, Kuch, and Tkachuk over him for sure and then him ir Rantanen

 

[notDatsyuk]

Yeah but then you have a 2C for 11 million who scored 47 goals and a 2C at 4.5 that should have been traded for a legit Dman. If Kadri got traded 1 for 1 for a legit D man then it would have been fine, but he got traded for one of the worst defensive defenseman in Barrie and a bottom 6 plug in Kerfoot.

Regardless who was GM, Tavares was coming home anyway. Nobody can claim your saying no to him as a FA at the time, be realistic. The follow up moves were done horribly.

First, I think most GMs would be able to get a better top D with $11M to spend rather than with $4.5M (Dubas I'm not so sure about), and also afford an upgrade in net, which was also more important.

There were several posters, myself included, saying at the time it was a bad idea, and obviously we were the realistic ones. And just because he wanted to sign here doesn't mean we had to sign him, and if he really wanted to, we could have signed him for a reasonable amount.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Marner didnt deserve a dime over Mikko Rantanen.

He clearly mentions 'elite', which is debatable, and 'best young', while carefully omitting the excessive amounts.

 

[notDatsyuk]

You're all dumb thinking jt was the worst thing to happen. Leafs fan base is a joke. I'm embarrassed to be affiliated with the majority of you people

Please feel free to not be affiliated with us.

 

[FerrisRox]

I keep posting it, but anyone with a brain knew that once Eichel signed a $10 mill extension putting up 50 something points as a career high, it was over for our organization. Marner and Matthews were laughing to the bank. They had out produced Eichel and knew they were going to make $10 million easily. They both were miles better than him.

Eichel had 57 points in 61 games as a twenty year old with way less talent around him. But more importantly, his contract was for eight full seasons.

Eichel's contract was considerably better than the deal Dubas handed out.

I don’t think for a second they went in there and said John makes 11 so give us this. The conversation was likely McDavid is getting this, Eichel makes this. We are better than Eichel; so it needs to be a number in between McDavid and Eichel. Players and teams don’t use UFA contracts as comparables for RFA contracts. It’s not that hard to understand.

You are hilariously naive if you really believe that the agents for Matthews and Marner didn't use the contract Dubas gave Tavares as their benchmark.

 

[francis246]

Eichel had 57 points in 61 games as a twenty year old with way less talent around him. But more importantly, his contract was for eight full seasons.

Eichel's contract was considerably better than the deal Dubas handed out.



You are hilariously naive if you really believe that the agents for Matthews and Marner didn't use the contract Dubas gave Tavares as their benchmark.

You don’t know anything about contracts or comparables. You don’t use a UFA contract as a comparable, the leafs players used other post ELC contract cap percentages as comparables. Not John Tavares contract.

Matthews and Marner were getting 10 mill plus regardless of Tavares signing or not. Even prior to Tavares signing Matthews, Marner and Nylander all stated they would not sign extensions the summer before. So that should have told the fanbase right there we were in for a fight. I know people want to blame Tavares but all 3 were already planning to take us to the shed before Tavares got here.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

To be fair, the argument that signing Tavares was going to hurt the team because it blew up the internal pay structure of the team and the high profile RFA's were going to use it as a benchmark for their own salaries was soundly rejected here as being idiotic and there were very vocal members of this community who claim that "wasn't how it worked" and only an idiot would compare an RFA and a UFA.

When that is exactly what happened, those same people then said that there was nothing wrong with the contracts given to Matthews, Marner and Nylander.

There was, absolutely and without doubt, a large and vocal chunk of HFLeafs that were going to say whatever Dubas did was good regardless of what it was.

It's an interesting one.

I can see the validity of your point and it is fair.

I feel that yes Tavares' contract had an impact but not as much as we'd believe. In fact, It lets Dubas off the hook by saying he made one bad decision which led to everything else. I say no, he got schooled in all three RFA negotiations and the worst of the lot was Marner. The comparables for Marner even during the negotiation period were in the 9-9.5 range on a long-term deal.

He was a winger with a single 90-point season and four RFA years. Dubas got absolutely worked over by Marner and his agent. Tavares' cap hit and the expected cap increase that didn't happen are all excuses for some average negotiating by Dubas.