Ranking Dubas' worst transactions - #2

[Dekes For Days]

He clearly mentions 'elite', which is debatable, and 'best young', while carefully omitting the excessive amounts.

Elite is not debatable, and there were no excessive amounts.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Guys, this list could easily go to 15. That's how bad Dubas was. And to think Shanahan was going to keep him on initially. Get rid of the cause of these problems. A fantasy league manager could do better.

That’s what gets me. A lot of people seem to forget that the plan was to bring Dubas back. To me, that speaks volumes about Shanahan and the board!

 

[DarkKnight]

The thing about the JT move, it really wasn’t a need. I was shocked, somewhat pleasantly because of the caliber of the player, but it wasn’t a glaring team hole plugged and really distorted the team player values. Every team would love a JT at the time, the question is was it the right move for the Leafs?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Eichel's contract was considerably better than the deal Dubas handed out.

At time of signing:
Marner: 0.93 P/GP, 0.71 P1/GP, 2.39 P/60 at 5v5 (0.55 P/GP), 1.91 P1/60 at 5v5 (0.44 P1/GP), 7.19 P/60 on the PP, 4.69 P1/60 on the PP + additional PK impacts
Eichel: 0.80 P/GP, 0.63 P1/GP, 1.60 P/60 at 5v5 (0.40 P/GP), 1.26 P1/60 at 5v5 (0.32 P1/GP), 6.30 P/60 on the PP, 4.76 P1/60 on the PP

Eichel got 13.33% x 8 years
Marner got 13.38% x 6 years

So essentially the exact same contracts, but 2 years more for Eichel.
A gap of 0.13 P/GP, 0.08 P1/GP, 0.79 P/60 at 5v5 (0.15 P/GP), 0.65 P1/60 at 5v5 (0.12 P1/GP), 0.89 P/60 on the PP, -0.07 P1/60 on the PP + additional PK impacts is worth a heck of a lot more than the ~1m that those 2 years were worth.

You are hilariously naive if you really believe that the agents for Matthews and Marner didn't use the contract Dubas gave Tavares as their benchmark.

The agents would know better than to try and use a UFA as a comparable for a post-ELC contract. If they tried, they'd just get laughed out of the room, and then asked to come back when they wanted to discuss actual valid comparables.

 

[Captain Crunch]

I’m surprised running back the same core is not an option.
At the end of the day the worst thing (for Shanahan, Dubas and now Treliving) may be the continued same core over and over.
Dubas made some decent moves and I like the players Tre has signed but:
We will either have success or we could be the next San Jose. Max Domi or Jared McCaan won’t be the success or failure benchmark.
The same core will hold the distinction.

To me, since Nylander wants at least $10 million (sorry, I don’t blame him, why should he be the only one to take a hometown discount; Matthews should lead the way, and Marner should certainly give one!), trade him. And if Marner won’t take a discount, trade him. Also, I’d do the same with Matthews. It’s time Shanahan and the board grew some balls, and not let players dictate how much they want to be paid. Time for these prima donnas to play for the crest on the front of their sweater, rather than the name on the back!

 

[Captain Crunch]

At time of signing:
Marner: 0.93 P/GP, 0.71 P1/GP, 2.39 P/60 at 5v5 (0.55 P/GP), 1.91 P1/60 at 5v5 (0.44 P1/GP), 7.19 P/60 on the PP, 4.69 P1/60 on the PP + additional PK impacts
Eichel: 0.80 P/GP, 0.63 P1/GP, 1.60 P/60 at 5v5 (0.40 P/GP), 1.26 P1/60 at 5v5 (0.32 P1/GP), 6.30 P/60 on the PP, 4.76 P1/60 on the PP

Eichel got 13.33% x 8 years
Marner got 13.38% x 6 years

So essentially the exact same contracts, but 2 years more for Eichel.
A gap of 0.13 P/GP, 0.08 P1/GP, 0.79 P/60 at 5v5 (0.15 P/GP), 0.65 P1/60 at 5v5 (0.12 P1/GP), 0.89 P/60 on the PP, -0.07 P1/60 on the PP + additional PK impacts is worth a heck of a lot more than the ~1m that those 2 years were worth.

The agents would know better than to try and use a UFA as a comparable for a post-ELC contract. If they tried, they'd just get laughed out of the room, and then asked to come back when they wanted to discuss actual valid comparables.

So which player was instrumental in their team going all the way, and now has a Stanley Cup ring? His name is Jack Eichel. Which one of our prima donnas will do that? They have had 5 cracks at it, and only have won one round to show for it. Will it be another 5 years before they are able to win 2 rounds, and especially if they get raises on these next contracts?

If they will not take a hometown discount, trade them! I would rather watch players who consistently showed up, started on time, and left it all on the ice, than this current group who only seem to want to play when they feel like it, and who play for the name on the back of their sweater, rather than the crest on the front!

 

[Captain Crunch]

We still need to show we can win a round again at this point. Hopefully this core has it in them or it might be the most talented go nowhere group.

Maybe, because that’s all they have shown so far. It sure would be nice if they would take a hometown discount so we could add an impact player on d. I doubt they will, but who knows?
Adding to this conundrum is Shanahan and the board who seem to believe that their model of building a winning team is to continually give these prima donnas (Matthews and Marner) what they want, and expecting Nylander to be the only one to take a hometown discount. I’m not saying to give Nylander what he wants, I’m saying they should do the same with Matthews and Marner!

 

[Dekes For Days]

So which player was instrumental in their team going all the way, and now has a Stanley Cup ring? His name is Jack Eichel.

That's just moving the goalposts. Eichel being on a team that won doesn't make him a better player now or back then.

If they will not take a hometown discount, trade them!

That's such an arbitrary and self-destructive position. If they can help your team at a fair, negotiated price, you sign them.

I would rather watch players who consistently showed up, started on time, and left it all on the ice

You are watching that. If you don't think our players do that, you'll never be satisfied with any player, because you're not actually evaluating the player; you're defaulting to a conclusion based on the team result.

 

[QJo]

Tough crowd.

Tavares level players hitting the market never happens and when one from the area did and he chose us and actually didn't suck, he maintained his play and should for the next two seasons. He didn't come in and bomb, but he's the worst move I guess. All of those terrible moves the franchise has made in just Dubas time frame and JT who will statistically go down may be 15 top in scoring for the organization all-time inside his 1st contract, the one we are discussing, is his worst move as GM.

It's mob mentality, piling on. His contract wouldn't be talked about if Matthews and Marner were locked up for 7 or 8.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's mob mentality, piling on. His contract wouldn't be talked about if Matthews and Marner were locked up for 7 or 8.

His contract wouldn't be talked about if a once in a century global pandemic didn't hit, shut down the league, and cause a billion+ dollar player debt that was paid back by artificially lowering the cap for multiple years.

 

[notbias]

To me, since Nylander wants at least $10 million (sorry, I don’t blame him, why should he be the only one to take a hometown discount; Matthews should lead the way, and Marner should certainly give one!), trade him. And if Marner won’t take a discount, trade him. Also, I’d do the same with Matthews. It’s time Shanahan and the board grew some balls, and not let players dictate how much they want to be paid. Time for these prima donnas to play for the crest on the front of their sweater, rather than the name on the back!

So anyone who won't take a discount, trade them? We will be left with Gio and Tavares.

 

[Captain Crunch]

That's just moving the goalposts. Eichel being on a team that won doesn't make him a better player now or back then.

That's such an arbitrary and self-destructive position. If they can help your team at a fair, negotiated price, you sign them.

You are watching that. If you don't think our players do that, you'll never be satisfied with any player, because you're not actually evaluating the player; you're defaulting to a conclusion based on the team result.

So you’re saying that our players being on a team that can’t win when it counts makes them better? Eichel did not ride the coattails on that team, he played an integral part. When have our 3 stars done that? Hmmm, I can’t seem to remember.

I‘m all for keeping them if they are willing to sign contracts that leaves some room in the cap to improve our d. As of yet, that hasn’t happened. Would love to see them do it.

Maybe you should watch the games and listen to what former players are saying about them after some of the games, and ESPECIALLY some playoff games!

 

[Captain Crunch]

So anyone who won't take a discount, trade them? We will be left with Gio and Tavares.

Get real! Shouldn’t the “core players” lead by example? Shouldn’t they be the ones to show the team that they’re in it to win it while still being paid at a very good price? It’s funny that star players on other teams (McKinnon being a prime example) are doing it. It wasn’t just Dubas that started this, Shanahan and the board were the real culprits! Build from the forwards on down. How has that been working out for them? Yet they are willing to continue doing it. Head scratching to say the least!

 

[Dekes For Days]

So you’re saying that our players being on a team that can’t win when it counts makes them better?

No, the team they're on and the playoff success of that team is irrelevant. Our players being better makes them better.
If Eichel hadn't thrown a fit and forced his way out of a Buffalo team he could never lift into the playoffs, it wouldn't change the quality of him as an individual.
Eichel hadn't had any success in the playoffs or even made the playoffs when he signed the contract in question, so not sure how the cup he won this year is relevant anyway.

Eichel did not ride the coattails on that team, he played an integral part. When have our 3 stars done that?

Our core players have done what Eichel did on this run countless times, even if it didn't lead to the same outcome for the team.

 

[Stephen]

His contract wouldn't be talked about if a once in a century global pandemic didn't hit, shut down the league, and cause a billion+ dollar player debt that was paid back by artificially lowering the cap for multiple years.

You realize other teams managed to win the Stanley Cup since 2020 right? No one told Dubas to hold onto his beliefs so tightly and make hard decisions good GM’s are supposed to when circumstances change.

 

[Captain Crunch]

No, the team they're on and the playoff success of that team is irrelevant. Our players being better makes them better.
If Eichel hadn't thrown a fit and forced his way out of a Buffalo team he could never lift into the playoffs, it wouldn't change the quality of him as an individual.
Eichel hadn't had any success in the playoffs or even made the playoffs when he signed the contract in question, so not sure how the cup he won this year is relevant anyway.

Our core players have done what Eichel did on this run countless times, even if it didn't lead to the same outcome for the team.

No one knows what really went on between Eichel and the management team in Buffalo. What I do know is that he showed up on this very good Vegas team and HELPED them win the Cup!

No, our core players have done this countless times UNTIL IT REALLY MATTERED! That is, until they got “outgoalied” or whatever other poor excuses you can come up with. If they could only count some of their value on how they perform in the crunch times in the playoffs, instead of the meaningless regular season, and in blowout playoff games. But unfortunately MLSE is still making a boatload of money despite this core’s unflattering playoff record. So I don’t expect anything to change.

 

[notbias]

Get real! Shouldn’t the “core players” lead by example? Shouldn’t they be the ones to show the team that they’re in it to win it while still being paid at a very good price? It’s funny that star players on other teams (McKinnon being a prime example) are doing it. It wasn’t just Dubas that started this, Shanahan and the board were the real culprits! Build from the forwards on down. How has that been working out for them? Yet they are willing to continue doing it. Head scratching to say the least!

MacKinnon took a discount by only taking 12.6?

What other star took a discount? Tavares is the only example I know of.

When ever someone points out someone taking a discount it usually just means the player signed for a fair deal and then outplayed the contract.

 

[Stephen]

MacKinnon took a discount by only taking 12.6?

What other star took a discount? Tavares is the only example I know of.

When ever someone points out someone taking a discount it usually just means the player signed for a fair deal and then outplayed the contract.

Tavares “taking a discount” to come to Toronto is PR fluff meant to make a feel good story feel even better.

Every detail about that contract as well as the captaincy amounted to a coronation for a home coming player and nothing was left on the table from a financial, linemate or status POV.

People are free to diminish Nathan Mackinnon all they want. That he didn’t take a discount, his offensive stats suck or whatever. But he won a Stanley Cup. And that seems to be the high bar where you want to give a guy everything afterwards.

 

[notbias]

Tavares “taking a discount” to come to Toronto is PR fluff meant to make a feel good story feel even better.

Every detail about that contract as well as the captaincy amounted to a coronation for a home coming player and nothing was left on the table from a financial, linemate or status POV.

People are free to diminish Nathan Mackinnon all they want. That he didn’t take a discount, his offensive stats suck or whatever. But he won a Stanley Cup. And that seems to be the high bar where you want to give a guy everything afterwards.

What PR fluff? It's been reported that he took a discount.

Not sure what you're going on about, but from the reports, he took a discount, just cause you don't like it, it doesn't mean it didn't happen.

 

[Stephen]

What PR fluff? It's been reported that he took a discount.

Not sure what you're going on about, but from the reports, he took a discount, just cause you don't like it, it doesn't mean it didn't happen.

Just because San Jose *may have offered an even bigger overpay with other unknown contractual details to Tavares doesn’t mean Toronto’s overpayment suddenly became a discount. That’s the price of UFA business but you can’t frame it like the Leafs got a deal there. Tavares got everything on that deal.

 

[notbias]

Just because San Jose *may have offered an even bigger overpay with other unknown contractual details to Tavares doesn’t mean Toronto’s overpayment suddenly became a discount. That’s the price of UFA business but you can’t frame it like the Leafs got a deal there. Tavares got everything on that deal.

If a player took less than what the market offers them, how is that not a discount?

His worth is set by the market, not some nobodies on a forum.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Elite is not debatable, and there were no excessive amounts.

Elite is always debatable. I post on the topic all the time.

E laborate
L evels
I n
T eh
E xellence

 

[Dekes For Days]

You realize other teams managed to win the Stanley Cup since 2020 right? No one told Dubas to hold onto his beliefs so tightly and make hard decisions good GM’s are supposed to when circumstances change.

You realize that most other teams didn't have most of their core signed or re-signed to long-term contracts directly prior to a global pandemic that unexpectedly stagnated the cap for multiple years, right? I'm not sure the point in trying to pretend that Tavares wouldn't be looked at differently if the cap was 10m higher, or that the flat cap didn't impact different teams in different states and situations differently.

Yes, I realize that 3 other teams have won a Cup since 2020, and I also realize that those teams had a lot of inherent advantages to get to that end outcome that we didn't have or experience; like LTIR cap loophole options to massively circumvent the cap, one of the best goalies of a generation, core players signed a while ago under a lower cap when they sucked, etc. Just because we weren't one of those 3 teams to win the cup since then, it doesn't mean trading the core would have been the better option.

What a good GM is actually supposed to do is evaluate the situation and options and do what's best for the team, which is exactly what Dubas did. Tavares had a NMC that he had no intention of waiving, and the three core RFAs could not realistically be improved upon in terms of impact relative to the cap hit they took up; at least without relying on taking a roll of the dice and getting really lucky. The best a GM can do in that situation is build back up the prospect pool that suffered under the previous GM, look for other avenues of cheap depth - leveraging your team and opportunities (overseas, free agency), and be sure about the bigger pieces who you do commit significant term and money to (Rielly, Muzzin, Brodie). All things Dubas did.

 

[DarkKnight]

Dubas is gone guys, get over it, so we can get back to Lou.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

If I were to make a "Best Dubas transactions" poll set, what would be some homerun choices?

I was thinking:

- Drafting Knies
- Kapanen for top 15 pick
- Muzzin trade (?)
- Schenn trade
- Signing Mikheyev
- Drafting Sandin
- Mrazek trade to Chicago