Predict the Atlantic Standings

[bossram]

But isn't that contrary to what the other person was saying? Guys like Helm and Cogliano are the type of "defensive forwards" that dinosaur GMs love even if they're not actually good at generating offense/puck possession outside of their own zone. Their lack of any sort of offensive driving contributions seems to run counter to what that person is saying since those are the type of "defense only" players that coaches and GMs always seem to love.

And Manson is further proof based on his last couple of seasons of analytics. At one time he was an analytics darling, but he hasn't been that the last little bit. Instead, he's more of a "eye test monster" who GMs love due to his physicality and perceived defensive ability, despite the analytics saying otherwise. Yet he was a prime target for Sakic.

I'm not saying none of Sakic's moves were analytics driven, I'm just saying that the guys I mentioned above seem to fall more into that "old school dinosaur GM" approach to why they were acquired rather than because they had stellar analytics.

I don't think the other poster called Helm/Cogliano specifically as these kinds of "dinosaur" type defensive players, but I'm not sure what his opinions really are.

I think analytics are good at highlighting which players are actually good defensively. I think in the past, there were many players that had reputations as strong defensive players, that weren't really true. Like, a guy like Manson has historically had pretty good defensive metrics. He also looks like a good eye test guy. A guy like Ristolainen is someone people held in high regard for a while because he looks like a good defender, until his reputation caught up with the analytics - which always viewed him as poor defensively. It's the latter types that are the misses/dinosaurs, IMO.

Guys like Helm/Cogliano have always had good defensive metrics, that fit their eye test reputation. It's true their overall impact isn't great because they don't drive much/any offense, but their role is really to just go out there and have nothing happen for either team. And they accomplish that. At forward, a more "Ristolainen" type example might be someone like Scott Laughton, who seems regarded as a strong two-way/defensive forward, but some of his defensive metrics would disagree.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I don't think the other poster called Helm/Cogliano specifically as these kinds of "dinosaur" type defensive players, but I'm not sure what his opinions really are.

I think analytics are good at highlighting which players are actually good defensively. I think in the past, there were many players that had reputations as strong defensive players, that weren't really true. Like, a guy like Manson has historically had pretty good defensive metrics. He also looks like a good eye test guy. A guy like Ristolainen is someone people held in high regard for a while because he looks like a good defender, until his reputation caught up with the analytics - which always viewed him as poor defensively. It's the latter types that are the misses/dinosaurs, IMO.

Guys like Helm/Cogliano have always had good defensive metrics, that fit their eye test reputation. It's true their overall impact isn't great because they don't drive much/any offense, but their role is really to just go out there and have nothing happen for either team. And they accomplish that. At forward, a more "Ristolainen" type example might be someone like Scott Laughton, who seems regarded as a strong two-way/defensive forward, but some of his defensive metrics would disagree.

Yeah, it's hard to really discuss what types he meant since he didn't actually provide examples/names. I just thought the part about "the smart ones are going for players who can make plays instead of the "defensive players" stuck in their own zone" thing was in reference to guys like Helm, Cogliano, etc. and players of their ilk. Because I don't think you'd describe either guys as players who "make plays".

In any case, even guys like Ristolainen probably aren't good examples of players who "eye test" folks think are good when they're not because I don't think even "eye test" people think he's good defensively (which is a defenseman's main role). Any sort of appeal he has is in regards to any potential offensive tools plus physicality, but I don't think even without the use of analytics fans or dinosaur GMs would view him as some sort of defensive stud.

Ironically, Philly seems to have both players you mentioned (Risto and Laughton). They're a team that's (according to reports) been investing heavily into their analytics department. So it's not like they're a team that has almost zero investment in that area and keeps just doing the old school eye test approach.

 

[Beezeral]

Whose spot would he take - Tkachuk, Batherson, Giroux or DeBrincat?

assennayo

Duclair's analytics and counting stats compare favorably to every forward the sens have outside of Giroux and DeBrincat who weren't sens last year. So to say he doesn't belong in the convo is silly. The numbers both fancy and traditional say otherwise.

Florida got substantially worse in the offseason, Ottawa got substantially better if you cant recognize these two things fine by me.

Both of these things can be true and I can still say the Sens didn't do enough to make up the 49 point gap between the two teams last year. Nevermind that the Panthers major losses are nowhere near as large as keeps getting painted. Ex Giroux was a deadline rental where the Panthers were already the #1 team in the NHL when they aquired him and Marchment missed a ton of time with injury. Weegar was a big loss. I completely agree. Tkachuk for Huby is a downgrade as we go into the season, but if he finds chemistry anywhere close to what he had in Calgary, it will be a net win because he can provide similar offense to Huby without being a massive negative defensively.

Have fun with Del Zotto in your top 4

Del Zotto was signed to a 2 way deal. He's expected to be the #7 or #8 defenseman in the org depth chart, but go on with your narrative.

lorida took all of the players that couldnt stay in the sens lineup. What does that tell you exactly....

This is clearly a reference to Colin White. A guy who was brought in to compete for a spot on the 3rd line of the Panthers. He's expected to be the 9th or 10th best forward on the team. Nevermind that Colin White was someone who was expected to be a key contributor for the Sens last year.

Formenton is harder to play against because he is physical and competes harder on pucks and gets in shooting lanes better. He was also an NHL rookie....

So much harder to play against that his defensive analytics are awful, his corsi% was 44.9% his fenwick was 45% and he was a -13 if you subscribe to that antiqutated stat.

The fact he was a rookie is pretty irrelevant when we are comparing teams right now. Either way, to say you'd take a 32 point player with bad defense over a 58 point player with bad defense reeks of bias.

Are you capable of watching a game or just spouting off about last years analytics?

I'm more than capable of watching games. I just don't feel the need to use my eye test to support an argument because I am able to realize that my eye is nowhere near as accurate as the data that is out there and more importantly, I could be the smartest hockey mind in the world, but on HF, I am just another avatar who has proven nothing. My personal opinion has just as much weight as any other avatar. So yeah, I stick to data driven arguments.

Yes im serious Duclainr isnt as good as anyone in their top 6 you know the sens had him right....

You know he is in a different role and a different player than he was 3 years ago when the Senators had him. He is in a passenger role for the Panthers where he can feed off better players and not asked to carry lines himself. It allowed him to thrive.

If you think he is better than Batherson, Tkachuk, Norris, Stutzle, Debrincat or Giroux thats fine with me but you're wrong.

I think right now you could flip a coin between Duclair, Tkachuk, Norris, and Stutzle and get different results as to who will have a better season (assuming health) each time. Would I take Duclair over any of the Sens guys in the years going forward? Absolutely Not. But when healthy, Duclair right now puts up similar production to to the Sens guys you claim are no contest better than him.

You obviously cant look at this objectively.

Says I can't be objective while dismissing hard data out of hand. Can't explain that.

Looking forward to the games this year maybe you will be able to watch more than one team....

Well you did just call MDZ a top 4 d-man on the Panthers, so...


One last thing, I find it very interesting that so many Senators fans want to make blanket statements saying their top 6 or top 9 is better/deeper than the Panthers yet nobody will put out a 1-12/18 ranking of all the forwards. It's almost like you know that once you put that ranking out there, it all falls apart.

 

[bossram]

Yeah, it's hard to really discuss what types he meant since he didn't actually provide examples/names. I just thought the part about "the smart ones are going for players who can make plays instead of the "defensive players" stuck in their own zone" thing was in reference to guys like Helm, Cogliano, etc. and players of their ilk. Because I don't think you'd describe either guys as players who "make plays".

In any case, even guys like Ristolainen probably aren't good examples of players who "eye test" folks think are good when they're not because I don't think even "eye test" people think he's good defensively (which is a defenseman's main role). Any sort of appeal he has is in regards to any potential offensive tools plus physicality, but I don't think even without the use of analytics fans or dinosaur GMs would view him as some sort of defensive stud.

Ironically, Philly seems to have both players you mentioned (Risto and Laughton). They're a team that's (according to reports) been investing heavily into their analytics department. So it's not like they're a team that has almost zero investment in that area and keeps just doing the old school eye test approach.

They're good enough to make plays to get out of their own end (and change). They play hard enough that they can backtrack and breakup rush chances. Everyone sees the sacrifice/work ethic. And for shifts in the offensive zone, they have skillsets that can least keep possession in that end, even if they're not creating chances. Those attributes are basically the ideal for the 4th line.

Risto is maybe a dated example, but there was a loooong time when the conventional wisdom, and even the consensus on the boards here, were that he was a good defenseman. And the analytics never agreed with that. It's only recently that the general consensus on him has caught up.

I wouldn't know how the teams use proprietary analytics. Philly could be sold snakeoil, looking at the wrong things, or just ignoring the analytics staff. But by what is publicly available, teams like COL, CAR, LAK, and FLA seem like they are analytically inclined.

 

[bert]

Duclair's analytics and counting stats compare favorably to every forward the sens have outside of Giroux and DeBrincat who weren't sens last year. So to say he doesn't belong in the convo is silly. The numbers both fancy and traditional say otherwise.


Both of these things can be true and I can still say the Sens didn't do enough to make up the 49 point gap between the two teams last year. Nevermind that the Panthers major losses are nowhere near as large as keeps getting painted. Ex Giroux was a deadline rental where the Panthers were already the #1 team in the NHL when they aquired him and Marchment missed a ton of time with injury. Weegar was a big loss. I completely agree. Tkachuk for Huby is a downgrade as we go into the season, but if he finds chemistry anywhere close to what he had in Calgary, it will be a net win because he can provide similar offense to Huby without being a massive negative defensively.


Del Zotto was signed to a 2 way deal. He's expected to be the #7 or #8 defenseman in the org depth chart, but go on with your narrative.

This is clearly a reference to Colin White. A guy who was brought in to compete for a spot on the 3rd line of the Panthers. He's expected to be the 9th or 10th best forward on the team. Nevermind that Colin White was someone who was expected to be a key contributor for the Sens last year.



So much harder to play against that his defensive analytics are awful, his corsi% was 44.9% his fenwick was 45% and he was a -13 if you subscribe to that antiqutated stat.

The fact he was a rookie is pretty irrelevant when we are comparing teams right now. Either way, to say you'd take a 32 point player with bad defense over a 58 point player with bad defense reeks of bias.

I'm more than capable of watching games. I just don't feel the need to use my eye test to support an argument because I am able to realize that my eye is nowhere near as accurate as the data that is out there and more importantly, I could be the smartest hockey mind in the world, but on HF, I am just another avatar who has proven nothing. My personal opinion has just as much weight as any other avatar. So yeah, I stick to data driven arguments.


You know he is in a different role and a different player than he was 3 years ago when the Senators had him. He is in a passenger role for the Panthers where he can feed off better players and not asked to carry lines himself. It allowed him to thrive.


I think right now you could flip a coin between Duclair, Tkachuk, Norris, and Stutzle and get different results as to who will have a better season (assuming health) each time. Would I take Duclair over any of the Sens guys in the years going forward? Absolutely Not. But when healthy, Duclair right now puts up similar production to to the Sens guys you claim are no contest better than him.

Says I can't be objective while dismissing hard data out of hand. Can't explain that.

Well you did just call MDZ a top 4 d-man on the Panthers, so...


One last thing, I find it very interesting that so many Senators fans want to make blanket statements saying their top 6 or top 9 is better/deeper than the Panthers yet nobody will put out a 1-12/18 ranking of all the forwards. It's almost like you know that once you put that ranking out there, it all falls apart.

First of all quote the entire post you are suggesting some of these statements are stand alone. You are completely unable to be objective if you actually think Duclair is a better player than Tkachuk, Batherson, Stutzle or Norris. You say hard data... They all had a better ppg than Duclair except Stutzle who had 30 points in his last 27 games. They are also all substantially younger and didnt get to play with Barkov. Nor do you appear to understand analytics when evaluating players. No point in continuing the discussion.

 

[Masked]

Duclair's analytics and counting stats compare favorably to every forward the sens have outside of Giroux and DeBrincat who weren't sens last year. So to say he doesn't belong in the convo is silly. The numbers both fancy and traditional say otherwise.

Duclair's not a center. That leaves 4 spots at the wing. If you think he's a comparable player to Tkachuk or Batherson then there's not much point in discussing this, or anything else about hockey with you, because it'd be like trying to talk calculus with someone who hasn't learned their multiplication tables.

assennayo

 

[Panthaz89]

Duclair's not a center. That leaves 4 spots at the wing. If you think he's a comparable player to Tkachuk or Batherson then there's not much point in discussing this, or anything else about hockey with you, because it'd be like trying to talk calculus with someone who hasn't learned their multiplication tables.

assennayo

Must have missed Batherson becoming a premier player after a half season of play....what exactly has he done?

 

[voyageur]

1. Tampa, I think Cooper has a motivated team this year. Injuries could knock the Lighning off the perch though, not sure the depth is there anymore.

2. Boston. This is it for the B's, last kick at the can. Leadership is strong. Forward depth is good. Defense is improved, with Lindholm.

3. Toronto. Top heavy Toronto will find a way to regular season success, beyond that...

4. Ottawa. Sens are improved. I think they make the playoffs this year.
=================================================
5. Detroit. I think this is the season that they make some noise, before becoming an Atlantic powerhouse, but it's still a young team. Perron and Copp will help the forward group, but I see the Wings falling short.

6. Florida. I just can't get past that defense, it's probably in the bottom 5 in the NHL. Maurice coaching this team is not quite like Quenneville getting them out of the gate. I think Zito's liquidation of draft picks has affected his purchasing power, with an owner who wants results. If they can't get a Chycrun, I see that defense being too weak to compete.

7. Buffalo. Eric Comrie passed through waivers twice in career before getting a full time job last year. Goalie coach Wade Flaherty deserves a lot of credit for his success. Much like Detroit young stars galore, but there's a transition before young stars become dominant ones, and I think up front at least the Sabres are still transitioning.

8. Montreal. I think this team could be better under St. Louis, there's potential for a 4 line team, but that defense is another bottom 5 one in the league, and the goaltending trio of Allen, Montembault, and Primeau might not be able to stop the tide.

 

[Pavels Dog]

First of all quote the entire post you are suggesting some of these statements are stand alone. You are completely unable to be objective if you actually think Duclair is a better player than Tkachuk, Batherson, Stutzle or Norris. You say hard data... They all had a better ppg than Duclair except Stutzle who had 30 points in his last 27 games.

Should at least acknowledge that Duclair had 30 points his first 30 games if you want to pick out specific samples for other players. Not saying I think Duclair is better.

 

[lomiller1]

Such as?

Didn't the most recent Cup winner stack their bottom six with additions o "defensive" players like Cogliano and Helm?

You're proving my point for me. Players like Cogliano and Helm aren't effective because they are big and physical nor do they play the whole game in their own zone. They are effective defensively because they are good positionally and make smart plays all over the ice.

 

[Beezeral]

First of all quote the entire post you are suggesting some of these statements are stand alone. You are completely unable to be objective if you actually think Duclair is a better player than Tkachuk, Batherson, Stutzle or Norris. You say hard data... They all had a better ppg than Duclair except Stutzle who had 30 points in his last 27 games. They are also all substantially younger and didnt get to play with Barkov. Nor do you appear to understand analytics when evaluating players. No point in continuing the discussion.

Last year, Duclair provided similar value to those players in his role. I even said that I wouldn't take Duclair over any of them going forward as those players still have room to grow. But right now, Duclair is providing similar value so to say he doesn't belong in the conversation of who would play where in the lineup RIGHT NOW is silly.

Duclair's not a center. That leaves 4 spots at the wing. If you think he's a comparable player to Tkachuk or Batherson then there's not much point in discussing this, or anything else about hockey with you, because it'd be like trying to talk calculus with someone who hasn't learned their multiplication tables.

assennayo

by this weird logic, Stuetzle would be the Panthers 4th line center.

But please. feel free to rank the forwards 1-12 or 1-18. Add tiers as well.

 

[Golden_Jet]

by this weird logic, Stuetzle would be the Panthers 4th line center.

But please. feel free to rank the forwards 1-12 or 1-18. Add tiers as well.

This is the funniest post in this thread.

 

[Beezeral]

This is the funniest post in this thread.

RIGHT NOW

Barkov is in another zip code

Bennett is putting up better 5 on 5 numbers with better defense

Lundell is putting up better 5 on 5 numbers with less games and better defense.

So yeah, Right now, Stutzle would be the 4th best center on the Panthers. Sorry you don't like when your backwards logic is thrown right back at you.

Would I trade Bennett for Stutzle? In a second. He's got the much better future but that's not the conversation being had.

Still waiting for the rankings that are never coming. You just pop in and laugh at posts you disagree with but never actually counter the points made itt.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

You're proving my point for me. Players like Cogliano and Helm aren't effective because they are big and physical nor do they play the whole game in their own zone. They are effective defensively because they are good positionally and make smart plays all over the ice.

You're not really making a clear point, though, because you haven't listed any of these supposed players that "dinosaur GMs" love but are actually useless based on their analytics.

Players like Helm and Cogliano are the type of players GMs and coaches love, even if they're only there for defense and don't provide much offense (ie. don't provide much outside of their own zone). So if they're not examples of who you're talking about, who is?

 

[Beezeral]

You're not really making a clear point, though, because you haven't listed any of these supposed players that "dinosaur GMs" love but are actually useless based on their analytics.

Players like Helm and Cogliano are the type of players GMs and coaches love, even if they're only there for defense and don't provide much offense (ie. don't provide much outside of their own zone). So if they're not examples of who you're talking about, who is?

Ben Chiarot

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Ben Chiarot

So one player, who has a skillset that just so happens to be more attractive in the playoffs when more infractions are allowed to take place, is proof that eye test folks are stuck in the past and can't see things that analytics folks can?

The whole discussion began as this sort of "eye test fans/dinosaur GMs" keep thinking *multiple players* who "look good" but actually suck, whereas analytics are super smart and only see players who actually do well. Thus far, one example has been brought up, and I'm pretty sure even most "eye test" people see Chiarot's limitations as a player.

 

[Beezeral]

So one player, who has a skillset that just so happens to be more attractive in the playoffs when more infractions are allowed to take place, is proof that eye test folks are stuck in the past and can't see things that analytics folks can?

The whole discussion began as this sort of "eye test fans/dinosaur GMs" keep thinking *multiple players* who "look good" but actually suck, whereas analytics are super smart and only see players who actually do well. Thus far, one example has been brought up, and I'm pretty sure even most "eye test" people see Chiarot's limitations as a player.

Ben Chiarot was awful in the playoffs for the Panthers.

But if you need another name. Erik Gudbranson

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Ben Chiarot was awful in the playoffs for the Panthers.

But if you need another name. Erik Gudbranson

No offense, but a lot of Panthers were awful in the playoffs, not just Chiarot. And again, most eye test folks don't think that highly of Chiarot either. It's not like the eye test folks think he's a top pairing stud while the analytics folks think he's closer to a #5 or #6.

And the same applies to Gudbranson. Eye test folks aren't exactly listing Gudbranson among the league defensive studs. He is what he is; a physical bottom pairing defender who can't really move the puck all that well.

Again, you keep listing players who have a niche role and are used in that niche role as examples of how eye test/dinosaur GMs are living in the past when eye test folks pretty much see them in the same light.

And here's another thing: no measure of players is correct 100% of the time either. Sure, the "eye test" people are going to be wrong on occasion. But so are analytics folks with some of the guys they prop up who then go on to fizzle.

 

[AvroArrow]

RIGHT NOW

Barkov is in another zip code

Bennett is putting up better 5 on 5 numbers with better defense

Lundell is putting up better 5 on 5 numbers with less games and better defense.

So yeah, Right now, Stutzle would be the 4th best center on the Panthers. Sorry you don't like when your backwards logic is thrown right back at you.

Would I trade Bennett for Stutzle? In a second. He's got the much better future but that's not the conversation being had.

Still waiting for the rankings that are never coming. You just pop in and laugh at posts you disagree with but never actually counter the points made itt.

As a Leafs fan who hates both of these teams, this is LOL

You are going to be surprised by Ottawa, the entire league is. Go check their record from January til the end of the year. Now go look at the additions they made this year. I am fully expecting them to make the playoffs this year, and I absolutely hate the Sens lol but they have a good group of players and with Dorion being given the freedom to actually GM, he's made some brilliant moves. Also their core is only getting better, these guys are not even close to their peak yet.

On the other hand Florida lost like half it's roster. Last year Bennett just put up a career high of 49 points, Stutzle 58 as a sophomore. Bennett was playing on an offensive power house in Florida and Stutzle did that as a 2nd year player on Ottawa. The gap between them is massive and it's not in favor of your teams guy lol. Stutzle is a significantly better player than Bennett now and for the rest of their careers, Bennetts ceiling does not touch Stutzles floor. Sorry to break it to you.

This is coming from a Leafs fan btw.

 

[bert]

Should at least acknowledge that Duclair had 30 points his first 30 games if you want to pick out specific samples for other players. Not saying I think Duclair is better.

The context is a player in his 19 year old year is continuing to improve. Duclair is a player I like, I was rattled when the sens let him go. But he isnt as good as any of those guys. Id still take him on the team in a heart beat.

RIGHT NOW

Barkov is in another zip code

Bennett is putting up better 5 on 5 numbers with better defense

Lundell is putting up better 5 on 5 numbers with less games and better defense.

So yeah, Right now, Stutzle would be the 4th best center on the Panthers. Sorry you don't like when your backwards logic is thrown right back at you.

Would I trade Bennett for Stutzle? In a second. He's got the much better future but that's not the conversation being had.

Still waiting for the rankings that are never coming. You just pop in and laugh at posts you disagree with but never actually counter the points made itt.

Yikes... You are absolutely lost haha.

 

[yogibear]

The context is a player in his 19 year old year is continuing to improve. Duclair is a player I like, I was rattled when the sens let him go. But he isnt as good as any of those guys. Id still take him on the team in a heart beat.


Yikes... You are absolutely lost haha.

It’s most likely fear of the potential upcoming storm… from the north.

This Atlantic division will not be easy to play in. Except for the Habs, there should not be any free Two Points sent by mail like last year.

 

[Cats2TheCup]

Anton Lundell & Spencer Knight are 2 seasons away from being better than anyone wearing a Senators jersey now or in the past 15 years. Panthers undoubtedly were closer to the 80s oilers than they were the Sens last season. The subtraction of playoff killers will make them immediately better. Forsling is being slept on and quite frankly, so is the Barkov/Tkachuk duo that is about to wreck the league.

 

[Masked]

Anton Lundell & Spencer Knight are 2 seasons away from being better than anyone wearing a Senators jersey now or in the past 15 years.

Florida men are funny.

Assen na yo!

 

[Nineteen67]

Toronto
Tampa
Boston

Florida
Ottawa
Detroit
Buffalo

Team out East.

 

[Nineteen67]

1- Tampa Bay
2- Toronto
3- Florida
4- Ottawa (That's right, I think that age and health will catch Boston)

5- Boston
6- Detroit
7- Buffalo (The most mediocre team in the past 20 years)
8- Habs are on board for Bedard and you can't stop that train. Tchoo Tchoo motherf***ers!!1

I’m thinking Boston, Florida and Ottawa will battle for the third spot.