Predict the Atlantic Standings

[The90]

No, I think people realize how bad it could be this year

The floor is literally what they did last year lol how do you guys not get this?

 

[The90]

So I looked , since you just made a blanket statement without any proof.
He has 2 goals in 5 games without Kane, so a 37 goal pace.
Lol at the sample size on your claim.

33 goal pace****

 

[lomiller1]

seriously though, all analytics is more about HOW you use them. The problem comes when someone thinks one of those charts is the be-all-end-all to discussion. "this player looks better in this chart so I win the argument" is how they're too often used.

The alterative is usually blind assertion that's not backed up by any evidence at all. The side that presents evidence should "win" over the side that just states a personal opinion and insists it's true.

 

[Torontonian]

But aren't 90% predicting those to be the top 3 teams? Maybe a rare few have Florida (which is the weakest of those core group of players) to fall, but for the most part that's the top 3 and the question is more about who is going to be 4th and 5th and how big the gap will be between the teams.

Personally for me, I think it's going to be Ottawa 4th, Boston 5th, Detroit 6th, Buffalo 7th. Could flop Ottawa with Detroit as well, but I'm not sold on your D, and Only reason why I have Ottawa 4th is because Boston has alot of injuries to start the seaon.

 

[zodiacbiller]

So I looked , since you just made a blanket statement without any proof.
He has 2 goals in 5 games without Kane, so a 37 goal pace.
Lol at the sample size on your claim.

In minutes played without Kane. DeBrincat's numbers 5 on 5 with and without Patrick Kane over the last three years.

Total: 2950:42 TOI, 41 G, 94 PTS
W/Kane: 1669:37 TOI, 26 G, 61 PTS
W/O Kane: 1281:05 TOI, 15 G, 33 PTS

Per/60
Total: 0.83 G/60, 1.91 PTS/60
W/Kane: .93 G/60, 2.19 PTS/60
W/O Kane: .7 G/60, 1.55 PTS/60

Over the past three years, .7 goals per 60 minutes would be tied with Tanner Pearson, Zach Sanford, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Ivan Barbashev, and Derek Grant for 194th out of 411 forwards who've played at least 1000 minutes. 1.55 points per 60 would tie him for 237th with Pius Suter, Alex Formenton, Tyler Seguin, Calle Harnkrok, Gabriel VIlardi, Denis Gurianov, Owen Tippett,and Janne Kuokkanen.

DeBrincat is probably better than those numbers without Kane, and he'll produce better than them in Ottawa, because he'll be playing with better linemates than the non-Kane Blackhawks, but there's not really any reason to think he's the driver of anything. He's a capable passenger for star linemates.

 

[zodiacbiller]

Buffalo to me hasn't improved in the proper areas they needed too to improve drastically, they lack defense and goaltending, they'll be improved on the sense the rookies are a year older but that's it. Same with Detroit, they added players and will be better then last year but not better then the top dogs, Ottawa has improved their goaltending and added two top six forwards in Giroux and Debrincat, they are the most improved in the division, enough for me anyways to potentially do some damage.

What you have to think about is are any of those teams core and depth players better then the following:

1: Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Rielly
2: Stamkos, Point, Kucherov, Hedman, Vasy.
3: Barkov, Tkchuck, Reinhart, Ekblad, Bobrosky.

These players carry there team throughout the season, there might not be as many "free points" in the Atlantic this season, but I don't think it's enough to make up a 32 point gap from 4th spot Boston to 5th spot Buffalo.

I don't think Ottawa's gonna be good, and I think Florida will be, but there's a devil's advocate thing where Bobrovsky's been below average in Florida, Ekblad got some injury problems and has had a few real down years in the past (though those were mostly concussion related, and he hasn't had one of those in a while, thankfully), and great as Tkachuk is, a lot of people's appraisals of him seem to think his scoring numbers last year had nothing to do with Johnny Gaudreau, which is strange. He's not quite what people see him as. Then there's Reinhart, who just like, is a very good player, but not really an unreachable star. I don't think it's very likely, but there's a world in which like, Stutzly, Brachuk, Batherson, Chabot, and Sanderson provide more value than those five next year. Even if that happens though, Florida's also deeper tbh.

 

[Torontonian]

I don't think Ottawa's gonna be good, and I think Florida will be, but there's a devil's advocate thing where Bobrovsky's been below average in Florida, Ekblad got some injury problems and has had a few real down years in the past (though those were mostly concussion related, and he hasn't had one of those in a while, thankfully), and great as Tkachuk is, a lot of people's appraisals of him seem to think his scoring numbers last year had nothing to do with Johnny Gaudreau, which is strange. He's not quite what people see him as. Then there's Reinhart, who just like, is a very good player, but not really an unreachable star. I don't think it's very likely, but there's a world in which like, Stutzly, Brachuk, Batherson, Chabot, and Sanderson provide more value than those five next year. Even if that happens though, Florida's also deeper tbh.

For me with Ottawa, they have a solid top 6, good enough to score goals and win games, their D right now is suspect, keeping the puck out of the net will still be a challenge for them.

I think FLA is better, they have depth and a solid core and experience.

 

[LightningStorm]

Tampa, Florida and Toronto are definitely the top 3 teams, especially with all the injuries Boston has. Of them, I'm picking the Leafs to win the division. Return all the key players following a great RS, and took the Bolts to 7 in the only series we had with Point in the playoffs. Probably beat us without him.

I think the Panthers will have some adjustment after swapping out Huberdeau for Tkachuk. Meanwhile, I could see the Lightning simply playing for the playoffs for how fatigued we likely are from 3 straight finals. Gotta pace ourselves to have anything left for the playoffs, so in that respect I think it's unlikely we win our tough division.

 

[zodiacbiller]

For me with Ottawa, they have a solid top 6, good enough to score goals and win games, their D right now is suspect, keeping the puck out of the net will still be a challenge for them.

I think FLA is better, they have depth and a solid core and experience.

I think Florida is a lot better I'm just saying there's a lot of uncertainty in that top-five core players you listed.

 

[TommyDangles]

My team got better while the other teams did not is a very common fallacy among NHL fans.

Assuming all your rookies will pan out at the same time is another popular one. Buffalo made this mistake already with the Eichel Era.

Acting like all rookies are the same is another popular one. This is Owen Power & Jack Quinn we are talking about. Two of some of the best prospects in the entire NHL. Look how impactful guys like Boldy, Lundell, Jarvis, and Seider were this year.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Nylander has literally never played the left wing for us ever lol, tell me you don't watch the Leafs without telling me you don't watch the Leafs


He's a right wing 99.999999% of the time. He played C a few times, I don't think I ever saw him play LW, unless you're counting 6 on 5 situations. He literally only plays RW. He played like half a game at C in the Columbus series, never played LW.

I’ve seen him play LW a few times with Marber and Matthew’s

In minutes played without Kane. DeBrincat's numbers 5 on 5 with and without Patrick Kane over the last three years.

Total: 2950:42 TOI, 41 G, 94 PTS
W/Kane: 1669:37 TOI, 26 G, 61 PTS
W/O Kane: 1281:05 TOI, 15 G, 33 PTS

Per/60
Total: 0.83 G/60, 1.91 PTS/60
W/Kane: .93 G/60, 2.19 PTS/60
W/O Kane: .7 G/60, 1.55 PTS/60

Over the past three years, .7 goals per 60 minutes would be tied with Tanner Pearson, Zach Sanford, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Ivan Barbashev, and Derek Grant for 194th out of 411 forwards who've played at least 1000 minutes. 1.55 points per 60 would tie him for 237th with Pius Suter, Alex Formenton, Tyler Seguin, Calle Harnkrok, Gabriel VIlardi, Denis Gurianov, Owen Tippett,and Janne Kuokkanen.

DeBrincat is probably better than those numbers without Kane, and he'll produce better than them in Ottawa, because he'll be playing with better linemates than the non-Kane Blackhawks, but there's not really any reason to think he's the driver of anything. He's a capable passenger for star linemates.

He’ll do like usual with Stutzle and Giroux

 

[Golden_Jet]

I think Florida is a lot better I'm just saying there's a lot of uncertainty in that top-five core players you listed.

Ottawa has a deeper too 6.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Tampa - Below Toronto because of the loss of McDonagh/Palat. The series went 7 last year, 2 of their best players are now gone with no viable replacement

Why are you talking about the playoffs in a regular season thread?

They could win the Presiden's Trophy and still lose in the first round.

 

[AvroArrow]

I’ve seen him play LW a few times with Marber and Matthew’s

I can't recall him ever playing the left wing with Matthews/Marner

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Nylander has literally never played the left wing for us ever lol, tell me you don't watch the Leafs without telling me you don't watch the Leafs


He's a right wing 99.999999% of the time. He played C a few times, I don't think I ever saw him play LW, unless you're counting 6 on 5 situations. He literally only plays RW. He played like half a game at C in the Columbus series, never played LW.

I've seen him play LW VERY sparingly I'm not surprised you don't remember because it's that rare

 

[AvroArrow]

Why are you talking about the playoffs in a regular season thread?

They could win the Presiden's Trophy and still lose in the first round.

Sorry did you feel left out ? I forgot the Habs weren't a playoff team but are indeed in the Atlantic

Toronto
Tampa
Florida
Ottawa
Boston
Detroit
Buffalo
Montreal

My prediction of the standings of the Atlantic for next season

 

[Pavels Dog]

The alterative is usually blind assertion that's not backed up by any evidence at all. The side that presents evidence should "win" over the side that just states a personal opinion and insists it's true.

"Evidence" is a much stronger word than I'd use for publically available analytics. Defensive metrics especially are deeply, deeply lacking which is why you will often see actual NHL people (scouts, coaches, GMs) "overrate" guys who can play defense while armchair GMs would build teams of only 5'10 guys who have nice analytics.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

ʇᴉɐʍ ˙˙˙˙ʇsɹᴉɟ sᴉ lɐǝɹʇuoW ǝɯoɔ ʍoɥ ʎǝH

My phone was upside down. The predictions look better now.

 

[lomiller1]

"Evidence" is a much stronger word than I'd use for publically available analytics. Defensive metrics especially are deeply, deeply lacking

What do you find "lacking" about them?

which is why you will often see actual NHL people (scouts, coaches, GMs) "overrate" guys who can play defense

What makes you think the problem isn't with the scouts you are listening to and their inability to properly evaluate defensive play? Furthermore what makes you believe you even know what "smart hockey people" see or even whether you can recognize who the real "smart hockey people" even are?

while armchair GMs would build teams of only 5'10 guys who have nice analytics.

Why do you think being 5'10" is an impediment to playing defense? You realize this isn't the 1980's anymore right? Back then you could just flatten guys near the net and hold guys in open ice but if you try and use size to take people out of scoring position these days you'll get a penalty. Real defensive play is all about positioning these days and that means quickness and speed to get to the right spot before the offensive player can get there.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Sorry did you feel left out ? I forgot the Habs weren't a playoff team but are indeed in the Atlantic

Toronto
Tampa
Florida
Ottawa
Boston
Detroit
Buffalo
Montreal

My prediction of the standings of the Atlantic for next season

Non sequitur...

Not surprised.

PS: I hope you're right.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Tampa
Ottawa
Buffalo
--------------
Toronto - misses the play-offs
Florida - misses the play-offs
Detroit
Montreal
Boston


I hate to say it, but Tampa
is still there at the top,
they have their own thing
and it works like a charm


Ottawa is the most improved team
coming off, off season, they are
super well built, they are young
with enough experience, they are ready!


Buffalo has their young guns finally graduated
and ready to fire from all 4 lines, defense
looks surprisingly good, only
concern is the goaltending, but the
old guy was so good last season,
he might play even play better this season


Florida+POM=disaster, 'nuff said


I have a gut feeling that Leafs
will miss out it this season, i think they
will loss all of their games versus Ottawa
Buffalo, Montreal and Boston and that will
hurt them in the wild card race.

Both Detroit and Montreal will improve, lots
but its so tight so, they'll have to wait more.

Boston with their oldest team in the NHL
will fall off the wagon, will finish dead last

 

[Pavels Dog]

What do you find "lacking" about them?

There isn't really much in the way of analytics for actual defensive plays. This is not controversial. The best way to rate a player's defensive ability is still to watch them play.

Why do you think being 5'10" is an impediment to playing defense? You realize this isn't the 1980's anymore right? Back then you could just flatten guys near the net and hold guys in open ice but if you try and use size to take people out of scoring position these days you'll get a penalty. Real defensive play is all about positioning these days and that means quickness and speed to get to the right spot before the offensive player can get there.

Size and reach are still benefits defensively.

 

[Blowfish]

Any teams still under cap floor minimum? I believe Buffalo Ottawa and Detroit will need to add?

 

[Golden_Jet]

Any teams still under cap floor minimum? I believe Buffalo Ottawa and Detroit will need to add?

Buffalo is just over, Ottawa about 8 million in cap room left with 2 RFAs to sign, Detroit has about 8 million in room left as well.
Capfriendly is your friend to check. So all 3 are fine.

 

[SPLBRUIN]

Tampa
Ottawa
Buffalo
--------------
Toronto - misses the play-offs
Florida - misses the play-offs
Detroit
Montreal
Boston


I hate to say it, but Tampa
is still there at the top,
they have their own thing
and it works like a charm


Ottawa is the most improved team
coming off, off season, they are
super well built, they are young
with enough experience, they are ready!


Buffalo has their young guns finally graduated
and ready to fire from all 4 lines, defense
looks surprisingly good, only
concern is the goaltending, but the
old guy was so good last season,
he might play even play better this season


Florida+POM=disaster, 'nuff said


I have a gut feeling that Leafs
will miss out it this season, i think they
will loss all of their games versus Ottawa
Buffalo, Montreal and Boston and that will
hurt them in the wild card race.

Both Detroit and Montreal will improve, lots
but its so tight so, they'll have to wait more.

Boston with their oldest team in the NHL
will fall off the wagon, will finish dead last

This will easily win the worst prediction of the year, talk about embarrassing yourself.