Predict the Atlantic Standings

[WhereAreTheCookies]

My team got better while the other teams did not is a very common fallacy among NHL fans.

Assuming all your rookies will pan out at the same time is another popular one. Buffalo made this mistake already with the Eichel Era.

I don't think it's farfetched to believe that those rookies will have a bigger impact than the players they are replacing. They are replacing some pretty lousy players on the roster so the bar there is set pretty low.

Also don't think anyone is denying other teams got better, much of this has been pushback for a handful of people claiming the Sabres got worse when they really haven't, and even the so called "experts" have said they were an improved team. How that translates to the season has yet to be seen, but they kept mostly the same core roster while adding only a couple players from outside the organization so there is some benefit to that continuity.

 

[Blowfish]

We keep seeing this about goaltending, Toronto literately did not have goaltending the majority of the season last year and came 4th. It will be really hard for Toronto to have any worse goaltending then they did last year.

1. Toronto
2. Tampa (Could probably put them first, but they will won't try till 2nd half)
3. FLA
4. OTT (I see lots of 6-5 games coming)
5. Boston (Only here because of injuries they have starting the year, slow start, not enough time in year)
6. Detroit
7. Buffalo
8. Montreal

What are your thoughts on Buffalo Detroit and Ottawa all improving and making it much more difficult to earn a playoff spot garnish all those easy points Boston Tampa Toronto and Florida collected? This is the point many are trying to make and some are completely ignoring. Parity in the Atlantic is here. It won't be easy for any team.

 

[zodiacbiller]

Dom's chart's while blah blah blah

Your entire post is telling me that you know what stats are called and what they're aiming to describe, not an understanding of what goes into them, what their flaws are, etc. You're intensely out of your depth here.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Why?

because you have them below both Buffalo and Detroit and that seems unlikely given what they added.

Having them below buffalo is particularly interesting

 

[zodiacbiller]

What are your thoughts on Buffalo Detroit and Ottawa all improving and making it much more difficult to earn a playoff spot garnish all those easy points Boston Tampa Toronto and Florida collected? This is the point that many are trying to make. Parity is finally here. It won't be easy for any team.

Not that guy but for one, you're ranking teams in-division, so the "easy points" don't really matter. For another, honestly, I'm not sure how much any of the bad teams improved. Ottawa got Giroux, who's a big plus. Alex DeBrincat scores at a third line rate away from Patrick Kane. You can say he'll get passes from x player, but nobody on the Senators is Patrick Kane, and those are passes that will no longer be made to Tkachuk, Norris, etc. Montreal is just as bad as they were last year. Buffalo you're relying heavily on guys progressing and assuming certain guys who made big leaps like Tage Thompson won't fall back (though I do think that'll happen for Buffalo, their problem is someone needs to make a save). Then there's Detroit who added a lot of guys, but they're all guys you have to ask if they do any good. Ben Chiarot is a negative on any team. Those bottom four are still all bad. Weird shit happens, all the teams have some injury stuff, a few aging guys, and none of them are Montreal/Chicago/Arizona-level bad, one of em could sneak in, but I think it's far from likely.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Not that guy but for one, you're ranking teams in-division, so the "easy points" don't really matter. For another, honestly, I'm not sure how much any of the bad teams improved. Ottawa got Giroux, who's a big plus. Alex DeBrincat scores at a third line rate away from Patrick Kane. You can say he'll get passes from x player, but nobody on the Senators is Patrick Kane, and those are passes that will no longer be made to Tkachuk, Norris, etc. Montreal is just as bad as they were last year. Buffalo you're relying heavily on guys progressing and assuming certain guys who made big leaps like Tage Thompson won't fall back (though I do think that'll happen for Buffalo, their problem is someone needs to make a save). Then there's Detroit who added a lot of guys, but they're all guys you have to ask if they do any good. Ben Chiarot is a negative on any team. Those bottom four are still all bad. Weird shit happens, all the teams have some injury stuff, a few aging guys, and none of them are Montreal/Chicago/Arizona-level bad, one of em could sneak in, but I think it's far from likely.

That’s a bad take. Lol at DeBrincat comment.

 

[zodiacbiller]

That’s a bad take. Lol at DeBrincat comment.

1) If you say so. 2) You can look at the numbers, DeBrincat doesn't score at a meaningful rate when Patrick Kane isn't on the ice.

 

[zodiacbiller]

because you have them below both Buffalo and Detroit and that seems unlikely given what they added.

Having them below buffalo is particularly interesting

Buffalo is probably better rounded with a higher ceiling if Eric Comrie is any good.

 

[Blowfish]

Not that guy but for one, you're ranking teams in-division, so the "easy points" don't really matter. For another, honestly, I'm not sure how much any of the bad teams improved. Ottawa got Giroux, who's a big plus. Alex DeBrincat scores at a third line rate away from Patrick Kane. You can say he'll get passes from x player, but nobody on the Senators is Patrick Kane, and those are passes that will no longer be made to Tkachuk, Norris, etc. Montreal is just as bad as they were last year. Buffalo you're relying heavily on guys progressing and assuming certain guys who made big leaps like Tage Thompson won't fall back (though I do think that'll happen for Buffalo, their problem is someone needs to make a save). Then there's Detroit who added a lot of guys, but they're all guys you have to ask if they do any good. Ben Chiarot is a negative on any team. Those bottom four are still all bad. Weird shit happens, all the teams have some injury stuff, a few aging guys, and none of them are Montreal/Chicago/Arizona-level bad, one of em could sneak in, but I think it's far from likely.

You are severely underestimating those opponents and with that will come disappointment for you.

 

[Beezeral]

Your entire post is telling me that you know what stats are called and what they're aiming to describe, not an understanding of what goes into them, what their flaws are, etc. You're intensely out of your depth here.

I just told you what I thought the flaws are with Dom's model. He essentially boils everything down to a general offensive 5 on 5 grade, a general defensive 5 on 5 grade, and an overall grade. What are you looking for, me to pull up Dom's actual formula and give my opinion on how he weights each individual thing?

 

[zodiacbiller]

You are severely underestimating those appointments and with that will come disappointment for you.

I don't know what this is supposed to mean.

I just told you what I thought the flaws are with Dom's model. He essentially boils everything down to a general offensive 5 on 5 grade, a general defensive 5 on 5 grade, and an overall grade. What are you looking for, me to pull up Dom's actual formula and give my opinion on how he weights each individual thing?

My point is that models are flawed because it's very easy to throw around a number that claims to cover a lot of attributes without considering what it's made up of. The fact that I wouldn't expect you to break down each individual component is why I think it's stupid to try to use all-encompassing numbers.

 

[Blowfish]

I don't know what this is supposed to mean.

opponents.

 

[zodiacbiller]

opponents.

Oh, well, alright, have fun with that.

 

[Beezeral]

I don't know what this is supposed to mean.

My point is that models are flawed because it's very easy to throw around a number that claims to cover a lot of attributes without considering what it's made up of. The fact that I wouldn't expect you to break down each individual component is why I think it's stupid to try to use all-encompassing numbers.

Right. The model is flawed. But it is still a model that is widely used by inteligent people in the hockey community. That gives it exponentially more weight than the opinion of a random person on HF who says player X on my team is better than player Y on yours because I said so.

Dismissing Dom's model as flawed in favor of feels of random people is quite the take.

 

[Face Of Bear]

because you have them below both Buffalo and Detroit and that seems unlikely given what they added.

Having them below buffalo is particularly interesting

True I forgot how bad Buffalos goaltending is. Would switch them and Ottawa. Detroit imo is more well rounded, experienced and better in pretty much all positions.

 

[Pavels Dog]

But it is still a model that is widely used by inteligent people in the hockey community.

press X to doubt

seriously though, all analytics is more about HOW you use them. The problem comes when someone thinks one of those charts is the be-all-end-all to discussion. "this player looks better in this chart so I win the argument" is how they're too often used.

 

[swiftwin]

Buffalo is adding top tier rookies to their team. Owen Power, Jack Quinn, and JJ Peterka. They will be far more impactful than overpaying for some vets in FA.

Sens are also adding Sanderson, Pinto and (maybe) Grieg

 

[Beezeral]

press X to doubt

seriously though, all analytics is more about HOW you use them. The problem comes when someone thinks one of those charts is the be-all-end-all to discussion. "this player looks better in this chart so I win the argument" is how they're too often used.

And I have repeatedly not done that ITT. I have posted those charts in support of my argument and have yet to have any sort of counter argument either with charts from other sources or an opinion based argument supported by some kind of evidence outside of "because I said so"

 

[Yorkshire Leaf]

Take a look at my initial post...let me know what you think. I tried to be fair in my assessment.

I’m not sure you did try to be fair, I think some unconscious bias probably crept in there having seen some of your other posts.

To be honest although Buffalo have made some changes (remains to be seen if they are improvements) I’ll take the players who finished 22 wins and 40 points ahead the previous season.

 

[Blowfish]

I’m not sure you did try to be fair, I think some unconscious bias probably crept in there having seen some of your other posts.

To be honest although Buffalo have made some changes (remains to be seen if they are improvements) I’ll take the players who finished 22 wins and 40 points ahead the previous season.

I guess we agree to disagree, I felt it was a fair assessment. As a bruin fan, the sabres are a team to worry about. As are the sens and wings.

 

[Torontonian]

What are your thoughts on Buffalo Detroit and Ottawa all improving and making it much more difficult to earn a playoff spot garnish all those easy points Boston Tampa Toronto and Florida collected? This is the point many are trying to make and some are completely ignoring. Parity in the Atlantic is here. It won't be easy for any team.

Buffalo to me hasn't improved in the proper areas they needed too to improve drastically, they lack defense and goaltending, they'll be improved on the sense the rookies are a year older but that's it. Same with Detroit, they added players and will be better then last year but not better then the top dogs, Ottawa has improved their goaltending and added two top six forwards in Giroux and Debrincat, they are the most improved in the division, enough for me anyways to potentially do some damage.

What you have to think about is are any of those teams core and depth players better then the following:

1: Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Rielly
2: Stamkos, Point, Kucherov, Hedman, Vasy.
3: Barkov, Tkchuck, Reinhart, Ekblad, Bobrosky.

These players carry there team throughout the season, there might not be as many "free points" in the Atlantic this season, but I don't think it's enough to make up a 32 point gap from 4th spot Boston to 5th spot Buffalo.

 

[Pavels Dog]

What you have to think about is are any of those teams core and depth players better then the following:

1: Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Rielly
2: Stamkos, Point, Kucherov, Hedman, Vasy.
3: Barkov, Tkchuck, Reinhart, Ekblad, Bobrosky.

But aren't 90% predicting those to be the top 3 teams? Maybe a rare few have Florida (which is the weakest of those core group of players) to fall, but for the most part that's the top 3 and the question is more about who is going to be 4th and 5th and how big the gap will be between the teams.

 

[Golden_Jet]

1) If you say so. 2) You can look at the numbers, DeBrincat doesn't score at a meaningful rate when Patrick Kane isn't on the ice.

So I looked , since you just made a blanket statement without any proof.
He has 2 goals in 5 games without Kane, so a 37 goal pace.
Lol at the sample size on your claim.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Right. The model is flawed. But it is still a model that is widely used by inteligent people in the hockey community.

It’s used by fans, that’s it.
Explain the model and how he determines his defensive and offensive numbers.

 

[AvroArrow]

Who is that? Left wing Nylander?

Nylander has literally never played the left wing for us ever lol, tell me you don't watch the Leafs without telling me you don't watch the Leafs

the thing is Nylander is also RW, he's had a couple a shifts at LW but he is RW the vast majority of the time.

so it's actually

Marner
Nylander
Jarnkrok
probably Simmonds

yeah Buffalo's RW isn't even close

He's a right wing 99.999999% of the time. He played C a few times, I don't think I ever saw him play LW, unless you're counting 6 on 5 situations. He literally only plays RW. He played like half a game at C in the Columbus series, never played LW.